作者ck70815 (ck70815)
看板MLB
標題[外電] 川哥帶來的化學效應
時間Mon Oct 23 22:50:18 2017
How Carlos Beltran Sparked Traditional Clubhouse
Chemistry for the Data-Crazed Astros
by Ben Reiter Oct. 19 2017
原文網址：
https://tinyurl.com/yaqjv7rn
運動視界影音版：
https://www.sportsv.net/articles/45856
The Nerd Cave keeps expanding. In 2014, the Astros' formidable analytics
department, which gave itself its own nickname, employed four members.
Three years later, there are nine. Even so, while all of that computational
power helped to build a 101-win ALCS participant almost from scratch, it still
can't begin to measure, or even understand, what is perhaps the most elusive
component of a championship hopeful.
Nerd Cave，太空人強大的分析部門給自己的綽號，在2014年只有四位員工，目前已經
擴張到九位。即便藉由精準的數據建構出這支 101 勝的球隊，並成功闖進世界大賽，
他們依然無法測出，甚至了解奪冠中最難以捉摸的部分。
"I don't think you can quantify it," says the Astros' data-devouring general
manager Jeff Luhnow."But that certainly doesn't mean it doesn't exist. You
know it's there. Everybody feels it."
It is chemistry, by which, among other things, a club's culture allows it
to play better than the sum of its parts. It does this while simultaneously
propelling individual players to new heights and a heightened resilience.
That's the theory, anyway. Metrics-minded skeptics often contend that while
it may exist, its impact on a club's bottom line success is likely negligible
. Chemistry, they say, comes only from winning----never the other way
around----and not even always. While there have been champions with
excellent chemistry( like the '15 Royals), and the champions wth bad chemistry
(like the late '70 Yankees and '86 Mets), there has never seemed to have been
a bad team with great chemistry.
「我不認為那是可以量化的」數據部門總經理 Jeff Luhnow說道，「但很明顯的
，它是存在的，因為大家都能確確實實地感受到」，這就是化學效應，好的休息室
文化可以使各個環節表現得更好，無論如何，這是它的理論，所以很多心理學者認為
雖然它可能存在，不過對球隊的成功是可以忽略不計，他們認為化學效應來自贏球，
雖然不總是，但絕不會是相反的，雖然歷史上有良好化學效應的冠軍隊（15年的皇家）
，以及極差的冠軍隊（70年代末的洋基隊、86年的大都會），不過從沒一支好的化學效應
的球隊會是爛隊。
Still, Carlos Correa, the Astros’ star shortstop, can attach a number to
how much his club’s chemistry improved his season over its potential
baseline: seven. “I’d say of my 24 home runs this year, at least seven
have been from that,” Correa says. Specifically, those seven dingers
were directly the result of one new teammate: Carlos Beltran, the 40-year-old
who signed with the Astros in the offseason.
Under Beltran’s tutelage, Correa’s work in the video room becamemore focused
.
Whereas in his first two seasons, he’d watch only to get an idea of the
contents of an opposing pitcher’s arsenal, Beltran helped him to learn how to
analyze how the pitcher liked to deploy it. “This year I look at 2–0 counts,
1–0 counts, 3–0 counts,all the counts,” says Correa. “I see where and
how pitchers do damage.”
Beltran is also a master of the dark art of picking up on if an opponent
tends to tip his pitches—that is, whether he does anything different
at all when he is throwing one type of pitch versus anotherr—and he’s passed
that on to Correa, too. “Maybe they do something with their glove that
allows you to figure out if it’s a fastball or a curveball,” Correa says.
Despite playing in just 109 regular season games because of a torn ligament
in his left thumb that caused him to miss half of July and all of
August, Correa still hit a career-high 24 homers.
太空人隊明星游擊手 Carlos Correa 就明確地以數字說出好的化學效應
對他造成的影響，「7」,他說「今年的24支全壘打之中，至少有七支是來自好的化學
效應」，正確來說是來自新隊友 Carlos Beltran，這位在休賽季期間才簽下的40歲
的老將。
在 Beltran的督促下，Correa 在影片室更加專注，過去兩個賽季他只會看敵隊投手
的投球內容，Beltran 幫助他暸解投手的配球策略，「今年我看了不同球數（ 2-0,
1-0 或其他情形）時，投手的投球內容」Correa說，「我知道如何痛擊投手」。
Beltran 懂得辨識投球細節的黑暗兵法，當投手在投不同球路時，是否做了什麼改變，
而他也將這些交給 Correa，「或許他們的手套做了什麼改變，讓你知道他要投直球
還是曲球」Correa說，儘管今年因傷只出賽了109場， 他依然轟出生涯新高的24轟。
“He hasn’t been afraid to try whatever I tell him about tipping, counts,
game situations—but he is the one who had done it,” says Beltran.
“I’ve been the provider of information, but at the end of the day it depends
on the player to be receptive and say, ‘OK, I like that, let me use it.’
All of a sudden you get results. You gain confidence. Then you start doing
it, again and again.”
Beltran說「他從來不怕嘗試任何新的資訊，不論是關於不同球數、戰況的情
形，他就是那個會完成這些數據研究的人。我只是提供資訊，最後還是要取決每個球
員要不是要使用這樣的訊息，或許他會說『太好了，我喜歡這些資料，讓我來善用它
們吧』，接著突然獲得好的結果，你就會信心持續做這些事」。
Last winter, Luhnow searched for a productive bat to slot intohis DH spot,
but also for something more. Says Luhnow, “We were also looking for some
presence, leadership and experience to separate us from the 2015 team.”
That team had jumped the organization’s own rebuilding time by reaching
the ALDS,only to wilt in a decisive Game 5 to the cohesive Royals.
“We had a lot of young players on the 2015 team, a lot of guys having
good seasons. We had some veterans in there, but they weren’t necessarily
the types of guys that create followership.”
The front office identified two candidates: Beltran and Matt Holliday,
himself a 14-year veteran. It signed Beltran to a one-year, $16 million
contract in early December; two days later, Holliday went to the Yankees
on a one-year, $13 million pact.
This season, Beltran’s age finally seemed to catch up with him on the field.
While he did drive in the Astros’ series-clinching run in Game 4 of their
ALDS against the Red Sox, during the regular season he hit just 14 home runs,
less than half as many as in a 2016 he split between the Yankees and the
Rangers,and his OPS dropped by nearly 200 points, from .850 to .666. Still,
the ripple effect of his presence seemed to be even greater than Luhnow
could have imagined, and it reached well beyond Correa.
去年冬天，Luhnow 在尋找一支大棒子來填補DH的位置，除此之外，
Luhnow也說「希望能找一個有領袖氣質跟經驗的球員，讓我們比2015年時更上層樓」，
2015年剛擺脫重建球隊的形象，並打進美聯分區系列戰，但止步於第五場，
敗給難纏的皇家隊，「我們那時有一群很棒的年輕的球員，很多人都打出好成績，
也有一些老將，不過他們不是我們要追求的那些」。當時確定的兩位人選分別是
Beltran跟 Matt Holiday，一位有14年資歷的老將。最終，太空人在12月和
Beltran簽約一年1600萬，兩天後，Holliday與洋基簽下一年1300萬的合約。
這個賽季，Beltran似乎被年紀追上了，球場上的數據大幅下滑，今年只擊出14發
全壘打，甚至不到去年的一半，OPS值也下降 20個百分點來到 .666，然而 Beltan
帶來的影響遠遠超過 Luhnow的想像，更不僅止於 Correa。
“You don’t walk into the clubhouse and see him sitting there checking
his phone,”says Luhnow. “He’s watching video, he’s into the game.
They’re working the whole time. When a rookie player comes into
the big leagues and walks into the clubhouse and sees him doing that,
you don’t need to tell him how to behave. It’s like, This guy
is potentially a Hall of Famer. He’s towards the end of his career.
And he’s still working this hard to get better every day?”
During games, between his at-bats, Beltran spends much of his time
in the clubhouse consuming video of not just the opposing pitcher and
his own at-bats, but of the plate appearances of his teammates as well.
If they’ve developed a bad habit, he sees it and lets them know, with
video evidence. “I could be pulling off the ball, I could not be
following through,” says George Springer, who also set a career high
in homers this year, with 34. Couldn’t an astute coach, earning a sliver
of Beltran’s salary, do the same thing? “I think you always just
think a coach doesn’t know what he’s talking about, as a player,” says
Springer. “He’s a player.”
「你從不會走進休息室時，看到他在玩手機」Luhnow說，「他在看比賽影片，
他一直在狀況中，這件事的影響是持續地。當菜鳥剛上大聯盟走進休息室時
看到他在做的事，你知道不需要再跟這個菜鳥說什麼了。想想看，這個傢伙，準名
人堂球員，接近他的生涯尾聲，但他依舊每天看比賽影片來提升自己」。
在比賽中每次打擊間的空擋，Beltran 都會花很多時間看投球影片，而且不光是他要面對
的投手，也會幫隊友一起看。如果隊友們在打擊上養成什麼壞習慣，他會讓他們知道
並且以影片佐證。「我可以拉打更多的球，而不是把球跟得更進來」George Springer
說，他也同樣創下生涯新高的 34轟，難道一位打擊教練領和 Beltran一樣的薪水，
就不能有一樣的影響嗎 ？「你會認為教練不能以球員的角度跟你解釋，但 Beltran
不一樣，他就是個球員」。
“I’ve done it for a long time,” says Beltran, the owner of 435 regular
season homers and 16 more in the playoffs—eight of them coming in
one magical postseason, in 2004 during his first stint in Houston.
“They’ve seen what I have done.”
He’s also changed the Astros’ culture in other ways. Most big league
clubhouses,including many in which Beltran resided when he was
younger, naturally have two factions: one that includes Spanish-speaking
players and the other for English-speaking ones. Though most of their
Latin stars, like Altuve and Correa, are fluent in English, the Astros’
clubhouse was still divided. “When Beltran came over, that kind of
merged it, really,” says third baseman Alex Bregman.
Bregman, the 23-year-old who is in his first full big league season, helped.
While he received straight-A’s in Spanish in high school in Albuquerque,
he committed himself to becoming truly bilingual after the Astros drafted
him second overall in 2015. “I want to be able to connect with guys
from all different backgrounds,” explains Bregman. “I think that’s what
leaders do.”
Now, says Bregman, “I’m speaking Spanish 50% of the day.” First baseman
Yuli Gurriel, who arrived in Houston from Cuba last August speaking
not a word of English, is a regular conversation mate; the two tutor
each other in their respective native languages. “We just talk with each
other every day, say different stuff in Spanglish,” says Bregman.
“Then we tell each other how to say it in proper English or Spanish.
He’s picking it up really fast. He’s doing a great job.”
“I’ve been on a lot of teams,” says Beltran. “There’s always division.
But here, it’s like—I would say, less. People still hang out
with the people they’re comfortable with. But when we’re here
, you see people talking to everyone, which is great.”
「我已經做這事很長一段時間了」Beltran說，生涯有 435支例行賽全壘打，
以及16支季後賽全壘打，其中8支來在夢幻的2004年季後賽，他第一個在太空人的球季，
「他們看過我的成就」。除此之外，他也用其他方式在跟改變太空人的球隊文化，
大部分的 Beltran年輕時待過的球隊休息室，都會分成兩區，一區是英語系國家
另一區拉丁語系國家的球員，儘管他們南美的明星球員，Correa, Altuve
都能說一口流利的英文，但太空人休息室還是有區隔的，「在 Beltran 來之後，
球員間真正沒有隔閡了」Alex Bregman說，今年是他大聯盟第一個完整球季，
從他 2015年以第二順位被太空人隊選走後，他就自許能成為一個真正能理解
這兩種語言的球員，他說「我希望和來自不同背景的球員溝通，我想這就是一個
有領袖氣質的球員該做的事。現在，我一天大約有百分之五十的時間是說西班牙語」，
一壘手 Yuli Gurriel 去年八月才從古巴來到休士頓，當然，一句英文都不會
說，他和 Bregman 成為彼此的外語老師，「我們每天聊，互相指導如何說正確的英語
、西班牙語，他學得很快，超厲害的」Bregman說。「我待過很多球隊，他們總是有隔
閡，但是在這，我至少可以說很少了」Beltran說，「當然人們還是會選擇相處起來比較
舒服的一起出去玩，但至少在這我可以看到所有人都在互相溝通，這是很棒的一件事」。
So when Beltran walked into the Astros’ clubhouse in the minutes after
Wednesday evening’s ALCS Game 5, Beltran was surprised by what he
encountered: silence. His teammates sat in their lockers, their heads bowed.
“I saw people acting different than they did during the regular season,”
he says.That’s what a night like Wednesday, and the two that preceded it,
will do. The Astros had coughed up a two games to none lead in the series,
losing three straight in New York in desultory fashion. A club that led
baseball in runs and hits during the regular season had over the course
of three games produced just five of the former and 11 of the latter,
and was about to head back to Houston a single loss from elimination.
Beltran reached his locker, and then turned to face the room. It’s not a
big deal, he told his rapt teammates. We gotta look at where we’re at,
be realistic. We’re going home. We gotta win two games. We’ve done that
a lot of times this year. Let’s not feel sorry for ourselves. Let’s go
home and play baseball.Beltran’s address won’t appear in a compendium
of great speeches, but it seemed to do the job. The Astros’ sights were
reset— from the immediate past to the future. They stood up and began
chattering, in English and Spanish and Spanglish, and packing for Houston.
所以當美聯冠軍戰第五戰賽後，當他走進球員休息室時，他很驚訝當時的
氣氛–––一片死寂，每個球員坐在他們的櫃子前，低著頭，一語不發，
「這是和我在例行賽看到的他們完全不同」，在系列中先取得兩場的領先，
卻又在紐約被痛宰了三場，一支在例行賽領先全聯盟得分和安打數的球隊，在三場比賽中
只得到五分，而且回到主場卻面臨再輸任何一場就淘汰的局面。Beltran
走到他的櫃子前，轉過身來對著他的隊友說，「這不是什麼大不了的事，看看我們現
在在哪，我們回到家，我們必須贏接下來兩場比賽，這件事我們今年做過很多次，
沒必要感到遺憾，我們回家並打場好球吧」，當然，Beltran 的演講並不會成
為什麼演講範本，但它有效，球員們又開始聊天、溝通，用英文、西班牙文和
Spanglish，並且準備回家。
“There’s never a moment that’s too big for him, and I think that calms
everybody lse down,” says Luhnow. The numbers suggest that Astros are now a
long shot to reach the World Series, but as even the probability-obsessed
inhabitants of the Nerd Cave have come to realize, numbers aren’t everything.
Luhnow說「對他而言，這根本不算什麼大場面，我認為所有人都因此冷靜
下來了」
「數據告訴我們，太空人在系列戰中處於劣勢，但即使是數據狂的 Nerd Cave 都意識
到，數據並不是一切」。
==================================================
第一次在MLB版發文 傷眼見諒 m(__)m
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1508770223.A.B9E.html
推 chaobii: 推 10/23 22:51
推 JoseReyes: 懷念他2013年季後賽的一堆clutch hit 10/23 22:56
※ 編輯: ck70815 (116.86.56.46), 10/23/2017 22:58:57
推 yw1002: long shot = 奪冠勁旅?10/23 23:00
→ threebig: 這次誰贏都很有話題性 是豪門重返榮耀呢 還是新軍直攻巔 10/23 23:00
→ threebig: 峰呢 我甚至覺得太空人的先發近況比道奇還強 打擊可能是 10/23 23:00
→ threebig: 平分秋色 而牛棚的差距不小 但肯定是個血脈賁張的對決 10/23 23:00
※ 編輯: ck70815 (116.86.56.46), 10/23/2017 23:02:33
推 yw1002: 對太空人印象就是05年進世界大賽 當時陣中有巨砲Berkman10/23 23:02
推 globekiller: 七局後再開電視就好了10/23 23:03
※ 編輯: ck70815 (116.86.56.46), 10/23/2017 23:04:43
※ globekiller:轉錄至看板 Astros 10/23 23:04
感謝 我再修一下
推 OneCell: 推10/23 23:07
推 rssh0106: 先發比道奇強？道奇五場只讓小熊敲8分 場均1.610/23 23:09
→ rssh0106: 太空人七場給洋基23分，場均3.310/23 23:10
→ rssh0106: 小熊火力有比洋基弱？10/23 23:11
→ rssh0106: 你該不會以為kershaw有七局症就覺得道奇季後賽先發表現10/23 23:12
→ threebig: 短期賽很難預測 你看Sabathia和Morton在ALCS兩次先發的10/23 23:12
→ threebig: 表現差這麼多10/23 23:12
推 maxspeed150: 有的老將就是能發揮老將的價值 帶頭領導年輕人10/23 23:12
→ maxspeed150: 反觀有些老將(ry10/23 23:13
推 vg175: 季後賽兩輪打下來小熊打擊狀況比洋基差這沒什麼疑問吧... 10/23 23:14
→ threebig: 今年小熊火力就是比太空人弱啊 太空人OPS+128耶10/23 23:14
→ dumu: 那是因為...小熊變成軟糖了啊~~(遠目)10/23 23:16
推 e920528: 推10/23 23:16
→ threebig: 但短期賽真的不太能用季賽數據去看 我想到了幾年前的Jef 10/23 23:16
→ threebig: f Weaver 季賽爛得要死 季後賽卻大殺四方 10/23 23:17
推 rssh0106: 那有什麼明確數據顯示是小熊打擊太鳥，而不是對方投手群10/23 23:18
→ rssh0106: 表現較好？ 洗耳恭聽一下XD10/23 23:18
→ threebig: 投打就相對的 你為何一定要和別人爭論這個啊10/23 23:19
→ bakasensei: long shot=冷門10/23 23:19
推 rssh0106: "我甚至覺得太空人的先發近況比道奇還強" 我只想瞭解一10/23 23:21
→ rssh0106: 下，說不出來就算囉 10/23 23:21
→ globekiller: 太空人ALCS前五場打線也打得跟小熊差不多 但有兩勝XD10/23 23:21
推 Toy17: 推川哥10/23 23:22
推 yw1002: 只能說洋基打線在主場有球迷加持XDD10/23 23:23
推 c871111116: 太空人先發是滿猛 但開口跟V中本來就投我基超擅長QQ10/23 23:46
→ c871111116: 這兩個其中一個季後看到都頭痛 還一次碰兩個...10/23 23:46
※ 編輯: ck70815 (116.86.56.46), 10/23/2017 23:53:33
※ 編輯: ck70815 (116.86.56.46), 10/23/2017 23:56:14
推 carrhung: 推 10/23 23:57
推 LoveWin7: 我覺得Verlander給太空人帶來的化學效應比較強吧 10/24 00:02
推 LoveWin7: 不過川哥今年退休後也是想要去當教練 10/24 00:05
推 niravaabhas: 休息室氣氛真的不是數據能顯示出來的 10/24 00:06
推 watermelon20: 給川哥一座冠軍吧 10/24 00:07
推 LoveWin7: 這次的WS兩隊都有明星球員還沒拿過冠軍戒指 10/24 00:09
推 terminator3: 帶來 5 hour energy 10/24 00:09
推 ggoohhppyy: 川哥從休息室走出來, 拿著幾罐5 hour energy分給隊友, 10/24 00:14
→ ggoohhppyy: 說"一人一罐, 感情才不會散", 這就是休息室氣氛良好 10/24 00:14
→ ggoohhppyy: 的秘訣(誤) 10/24 00:15
→ EEERRIICC: 思想潔癖出沒 10/24 00:15
推 saiulbb: 謝謝分享 10/24 00:16
→ saiulbb: 不過他美聯冠軍賽表現不太好 10/24 00:17
推 qap4567: 大家都忘了5 hour energy 10/24 00:39
推 LoveWin7: 他今年已經不是2004年的川哥了，不太可能會打這麼好 10/24 00:45
→ Beisbol: 2004和2005的NLCS實在太經典了，至今難忘 10/24 00:48
→ SinShih: 對啊 紅雀和太空人各贏了一次 但去WS都被橫掃 QQ 10/24 00:51
推 jcto04: 老將的價值 10/24 00:57
推 Aaronko: 06在NLCS被Waino再見三振也很經典阿XD 10/24 00:58
→ alex2426chen: 13年在打擊區看著Kolten Wong被再見牽制整個傻掉XD 10/24 01:16
→ ggoohhppyy: 是說明年太空人其實可以找川哥當板凳教練, 剛好補cora 10/24 01:16
推 jaychouson: Jeff Luhnow是太空人的GM, 不是數據部門總經理 10/24 01:16
→ ggoohhppyy: 的缺 10/24 01:17
推 aidsai: Cool 10/24 01:20
推 wtt168: 推偽打教 川哥 10/24 01:24
推 Rodriguez: 準名人堂川哥! 10/24 01:38
推 Shauter: 去了某幾支隊伍剛好都錯過拿戒指的那年 10/24 01:46
推 Roshiel: 這算舒服文嗎？ 10/24 06:20
推 uu70904: 川哥不是要接總仔？ 10/24 06:44
推 nick15: GO Beltran! 10/24 06:49
推 rucwmj273b: 推 10/24 08:16
推 o84262000: 真榆薵^大師 10/24 08:20
推 Danielhsieh: 依稀記得當年川哥嫌棄休士頓 10/24 09:03
→ EvanGattis: 可惜川哥本季打得很差 10/24 09:11
推 cagman: 翻譯推 好文！ 10/24 09:22
推 maxxxxxx: 推川哥 10/24 10:23
推 triff: 道奇穩 10/24 10:27
推 udm: 不過同樣是老將，一朗似乎沒辦法形成類似的效應.... 10/24 11:11
→ globekiller: 川哥是嫌棄中外野的小山丘吧XD 10/24 11:12
推 bkm1: 小熊打擊這樣可能不是對手強而已 十場鳥九場 自己問題應該也 10/24 11:29
→ bkm1: 很大....能過第一輪真的讓我熊迷嚇到！ 10/24 11:30
推 lucky69: 可是小春子你前幾戰猛拉結果一堆DP啊... 10/24 11:35
推 oadas: 川神已經變川普了 10/24 11:38
推 wuwinkan: 川哥也算是冠軍冥燈了.... 10/24 11:47
推 anfernee0520: 推川哥，老將的價值 10/24 12:08
推 secpeda: 好文推，但是上色好像有點問題 10/24 12:11
→ corlos: 以前Carlos Beltran在季後很強的 10/24 12:14
推 ultratimes: 氣氛大師 10/24 12:21
推 maikxz: 04狂尻HR 10/24 12:29
推 Alderamin: 就氣氛大師啊 10/24 12:30
推 greenYoshi: 真˙氣氛大師，是正面的那種~~ 10/24 12:36
推 a2156700: 逆˙氣氛大師 10/24 12:39
推 yankslakers: 推好文 10/24 17:14
推 MongolSoul: 季後賽戰神 帥氣腿砲川哥 ! 10/24 18:22
推 kaku216: push 10/24 23:29
※ 編輯: ck70815 (116.86.56.46), 10/25/2017 21:30:45