[外電] 太空人如何找到他們的勝利方程式？

[pneumo (超☆冒險蓋)]

現在這時候這種文不會再被說是舒服文了吧~

來源: The New York Time
網址: http://tinyurl.com/y9jhlez5
How the Houston Astros Finally Hit on a Formula That Worked for Them
太空人如何找到他們的勝利方程式?

As he witnessed the greatest victory in the history of his only major league
team, Jeff Bagwell wore a white cap emblazoned with a white four-leaf clover.
It was subtle enough to miss, but appropriate when cheering for a franchise
never known for good luck.
當Jeff Bagwell見證了他以前打球的太空人拿下隊史上最重要的一場勝利時，他頭上戴著  
一頂白色帽上面裝飾著一株白色四葉酢醬草。那個裝飾很低調不容易注意到，但是恰如其  
分的非常適合為一個從未以幸運聞名的球隊加油用。

Finally, at the end of their 56th season, the Houston Astros are World Series
champions. They began as the expansion Colt .45s in 1962. In all the years
since, only two other franchises that existed then, the Cleveland Indians and
the Washington Senators (ancestors of the Texas Rangers), had failed to wear
the crown.
終於在經過56個球季之後，休士頓太空人終於拿下世界大賽冠軍了。太空人在1962年一開
始是叫Colt .45s隊，而在經過這麼多年後，目前跟太空人有一樣長的隊史的只有另外兩
隊--笑臉隊跟華盛頓參議員隊(德州遊騎兵隊前身)--沒有拿過冠軍。

“Nobody wanted us to win this whole thing,” Bagwell said on the field at
Dodger Stadium on Wednesday after the Astros’ 5-1 victory in Game 7. “
Everybody wanted the other teams, the big teams. We beat the Red Sox, Yankees
and Dodgers. That’s pretty strong.”
「沒有人希望我們拿下冠軍，」Bagwell在星期三第七戰5-1獲勝時在道奇球場上說到。
「每個人都希望是另外一隊，那些大市場的球隊贏。我們打掉紅襪，洋基跟道奇，我們真
的很強。」

Strong was a theme for the Astros, who wore the word on a patch stitched over
their hearts, symbolizing their mission to uplift fans devastated in August
by Hurricane Harvey. They delivered the city its first major sports title
since the Houston Rockets won the N.B.A. finals in 1995.
「強」是今年太空人的主軸，他們把「強」這個字縫在他們衣服的胸口處，代表著他們負
有提振休士頓球迷的使命，尤其在8月份颶風Harvey襲擊當地之後。在1995火箭拿下NBA冠
軍之後，太空人再次帶回全美職業運動之一的冠軍獎盃給休士頓。

That Bagwell would volunteer an us-against-the-world viewpoint to frame this
victory says a lot about the team’s history. The Astros have usually played
outside the spotlight, and stumbled in their chances to seize it.
Bagwell那個"小球隊力抗豪門球隊"的說法也恰恰說明了很多太空人過去的歷史，他們常常
不是鎂光燈的焦點，跌跌撞撞的一路上錯失他們的機會。

A few of the current players — Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez and Dallas
Keuchel — endured at least parts of the three consecutive 100-loss seasons
from 2011 to 2013. But Bagwell, the Astros’ career leader in home runs,
lived through a different kind of pain.
一些現役的太空人球員--包括Altuve，Marwin Gonzalez跟開口--至少都經過一部分2011到
2013年那連續超過百敗的歲月。而對Bagwell這太空人隊史的全壘打生涯總數第一名來說，
他則經過另外一種慘淡的球隊歲月。

He and Craig Biggio, another Hall of Famer who spent his full career with
Houston, finished just one season in last place. They were mostly good, but
never good enough. Bagwell and Biggio reached the playoffs six times together
but advanced to the World Series only in their final trip, in 2005, when they
were swept by the Chicago White Sox.
他跟Craig Biggio，也是名人堂選手，都在太空人度過他們的職業生涯，他們只讓太空人
當爐主一次。他們大部分時間都打的很好，但是都不夠好到拿冠軍。他們兩個打過六次季
後賽，但是只在2005年他們最後一次的季後賽打到世界大賽，結果被白襪掃出門。

Astros fans get a daily reminder of that loss in the team’s television
analyst, Geoff Blum, who hit a 14th-inning homer at Minute Maid Park to win
Game 3 for Chicago. Blum played only 33 career games for the White Sox and
580 for the Astros. Now, at last, his viewers might forgive him for his fling
with an enemy.
太空粉每天都會被提醒那場失敗，是因為現在電視上出現的那位球評--Geoff Blum。Geoff
Blum在太空人主場，世界大賽第三戰，14局，打出全壘打，幫白襪拿下勝利。Blum生涯幫
白襪打了33場比賽，但替太空人打了580場。現在，一些電視機前的球迷或許終於可以原諒 
他叛逃到白襪了。

“Please, finally!” Blum shouted in the clubhouse celebration on Wednesday
night. “Although it’s going to be weird to see those two rings side by side.
”
「終於啊啊啊啊啊啊~~」Blum在星期三晚上球團慶祝會的時候大喊著。「雖然看著這兩個
戒指擺在一起會有點怪怪的。」

When the Astros earned their ring in Game 7, they wore orange jerseys for the
first time in the World Series. That look is not as distinctive as their
famous rainbow jerseys — worn from 1975 through 1986 and on throwback nights
today — but orange is a part of their identity.
當太空人拿下第七戰時，他們第一次在世界大賽穿著橘色的球衣。那件球衣跟他們著名的
彩虹條紋球衣--在1975到1986年的球員制服或是在復古夜的比賽球員會穿--並不那麼搶
眼，但是橘色是他們球團特色的一部分。

In the team’s first logo, orange smoke from a pistol formed the letter C in
Colts. They were 64-96 in their inaugural season — far ahead of their
hapless expansion brothers, the Mets — and within a few years they had
budding stars like Rusty Staub and Joe Morgan. Alas, the Astros lost most of
Morgan’s prime after a trade for the slugger Lee May.
球隊的第一個標誌，有橘色的煙從手槍的槍口出來形成一個「C」代表球隊名「Colt」。他
們的第一個球季戰績是64-96--但是比起另外一個後來也擴編改制的隊伍梅子還好得多--幾
年後開始有展露頭角的新星像是Rusty Staub跟Joe Morgan。但是，太空把Morgan換掉去換
另外一支大砲Lee May，所以並沒有讓Joe Morgan的生涯精華的大部分留在太空人。

When Morgan returned as a free agent, in 1980, the Astros lost an
excruciating National League Championship Series to Philadelphia despite
leading the decisive finale by three runs with Nolan Ryan on the mound. Six
years later, they felt the sting of another N.L.C.S. loss, this time to the
Mets, again despite a three-run lead in the final game. Both heartbreakers
took place at the Astrodome.
當Morgan在1980以FA的身分回歸的時候，太空人在NCLS系列賽決定戰，三分領先，Nolan
Ryan在投手丘，最後卻輸給了費城人。六年後，他們又在NLCS心碎，這次是輸給梅子，一
樣是三分領先，但是最後輸球。兩次心碎的比賽都在太空人的主場Astrodome。

“It’s not easy to do,” said Biggio, who played two decades with the Astros
through 2007. “What did we have, the third-longest drought or whatever it
was for the World Series? They’re hard to get, and they’re special to get.”
「那真的很難，」為太空人打了20年的球到2007年的Biggio說。「我們是史上第三長的世
界大賽荒，要打到世界大賽很難，也是很特別的。」

The Astros chased a ring in so many different ways. They made early forays to
the Dominican Republic for Cesar Cedeño, and to Venezuela for several
high-impact prospects like Bobby Abreu, Freddy Garcia and Johan Santana —
who mostly thrived elsewhere.
太空人試了很多方式想要拿下世界大賽冠軍。一開始他們去多明尼加找了Cesar Cedeñ，
去委內瑞拉找了幾個有潛力的球員像是Bobby Abreu，Freddy Garcia跟Johan Santana--但
是大部分的球員反而在其他地方發光發熱。

They had a habit of luring Texas-bred aces through free agency, like Ryan,
Doug Drabek, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. They made shrewd trades for
Bagwell and others, and drafted future stars like J. R. Richard, Lance
Berkman and Biggio.
他們有個習慣，喜歡找德州出身的王牌藉由FA方式得到，像是Ryan，Doug Drabek，Roger
Clemens跟Andy Pettitte。他們精算的交易換來Bagwell跟其他人，然後也從選秀找到未來
之星像是JR Richard，Lance Berkman跟Biggio。

None of it led to a title, and by 2012, Jim Crane’s first full season as
owner, the team had the worst record in the majors. George Springer was a top
prospect, but Altuve and Keuchel were not highly regarded around the game.
Crane revived orange as part of the Astros’ color palate when the franchise
moved to the American League in 2013, but otherwise looked forward, not back.
但是沒有一個方式成功，到了2012年，Jim Crane完整擁有太空人隊一年後，球隊戰績是
史上最爛。春天哥是頂尖的潛力新秀，但是那時候Altuve跟開口還沒被認為是優秀選手。
2013年當太空人從國聯移到美聯，老闆Crane將橘色變成太空人球隊顏色的一部分，將其他
拋在腦後。

“We came in on the 50th anniversary, so we got a lot of bang out of that,”
Crane said in an interview at his office in the summer of 2012. “But really
we can put our own mark on it next year. We’re going to do that. We’re
going to change the uniform, we’re going to remodel the stadium a little
bit, freshen it up and create some new spaces.”
「我們球隊50周年慶到了，所以我們想了很多方式，」老闆Crane在2012年在他辦公室接
受訪問時說到。「但是真的我們可以明年就把我們自己的標誌放上去，我們會這樣做的。
我們也會改變球衣，我們會稍微改建場館，讓它有新的面貌，也有比較多的空間。」

Crane did not want to shift leagues, he said. But baseball required it as a
condition of the sale, to even the leagues at 15 teams apiece.
老闆Crane說他並不想換聯盟，但是聯盟說為了讓兩個聯盟都是各15隊，所以若是要買球隊
的話，就要換聯盟。

“People say, ‘Are you mad about it?’” Crane said then. “Not really. If we
’re going to win a World Series, we got to beat everybody.”
「人們說，『你不會生氣嗎?』」老闆Crane那時候說。「不太會。若是我們要拿下世界大
賽，我們得要打敗所有人。」

They have done that now, largely with an approach that leans heavily on
analytics under General Manager Jeff Luhnow. On the field after Game 7, Crane
explained that he had learned to value analytics after studying several
franchises while trying to buy a team.
他們現在終於成功了，這要大部分歸功於總管Jeff Luhnow依賴數字分析的成果。在第七戰
後，老闆Crane在場上說在買球隊之前他研究了好幾個球團，他知道數字分析的價值在哪
裡。

“I could see some of the stuff they were doing that we weren’t doing,” he
said. “And then I said, ‘You know, to really get good, we’ve got to
challenge that and go a step further.’ So we allowed Jeff to do some of
those things, and we’re still doing it and hope to build the organization to
an even stronger position.”
「我可以看到我們球團一些同仁在做我們不做的事情，」老闆Crane說。「然後我說，『你
知道嗎，要做到那樣好，我們得要不斷的挑戰，不斷的往前。』所以我們讓總管Jeff去做
那些事，我們也一直在做，也希望可以把球團帶到一個更強的位置。」

Luhnow had made his mark in the last decade by finding amateur talent for the
St. Louis Cardinals, leaving a business career for an industry that still
apologizes, in some corners, for relying on numbers.
總管Luhnow在過去10年為紅雀打造潛力農場為人所知，在棒球界留下的功業在某些人認為
不該只靠數字。

After Game 7, the Astros’ pitching coach, Brent Strom, said the team had
targeted Charlie Morton — the surprise winner that night — partly because
of the appealing spin rate of his pitches. The Astros helped Morton become
the best version of himself through data that showed he should throw more
curves and four-seam fastballs, and fewer sinkers.
在第七戰後，太空人的投手教練Brent Strom說，球隊一直在針對Charlie Morton--那晚的
驚奇贏家--一部分是針對他球的轉速。太空人球團把Morton改造的更好，分析他的投球資
料，結果顯示他應該多丟些曲球跟四縫線，少投沉球。

It was sound reasoning. Yet in the middle of his explanation, Strom added,
almost reflexively, “I hate to say this.”
這個理論很完整，但是在解釋的過程中，投手教練Strom說，「我很討厭說這個。」


Why?
為什麼?


“Because people make fun of us all the time on this stuff,” he said. “We
really believe in this stuff. It plays. It’s fact.”
「因為其他人對我們的理論不停地取笑，」他說。「但是我們真的相信我們的理論，它真  
的有成果，它是個事實。」

Luhnow did more than rely on analytics. Like the Chicago Cubs’ Theo Epstein,
who also took over his team’s baseball operations before the 2012 season,
Luhnow recognized the incentives for losing baked into what was then a new
collective bargaining agreement. The worst teams would have much more money
to spend on amateur talent. A few years of struggle could lead to many years
of success.
總管Luhnow做的並不只是分析數字而已。就像小熊的Theo Epstein在2012年開始負責接掌  
球團營運，Luhnow查覺到藉由輸球之後可以從新的團體薪資協議可以得到的鼓勵。最爛的  
隊伍可以花更多的錢在新秀，幾年的掙扎之後可以變成許多年的成功。

“Not every plan makes sense for every team,” Luhnow said. “But where we
started, with the worst team in baseball and one of the worst farm systems in
baseball, we really had no choice. We had to focus on developing our own and
when the time is right, adding to it.”
「並不是每個計畫對其他球隊都適用，」Luhnow說。「但是我們一開始是聯盟裡最爛的球  
隊，有個聯盟裡最爛的農場，我們沒有太多的選擇。我們得專注在培養我們自己的選手，  
而當時機對的時候，加一些人進去。」


The Cubs added veterans like Jon Lester, John Lackey and Jason Heyward to
help their young core win a title. The Astros brought in Brian McCann, Carlos
Beltran, Josh Reddick and Justin Verlander, among others, to complement
Altuve, Springer, Keuchel, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman.
小熊加了一些老將，像是Lester，Lackey跟Heyward，幫助他們的年輕球員，最後拿下冠   
軍。太空人加了公道伯，川哥，Reddick，跟V中以及其他人，去補強已經有的陣容，包括  
Altuve，春天哥，開口，Correa跟Bregman。

Their success may strengthen other teams’ conviction that the best model to
win is by tearing down to build up. Then again, teams have seen value in
rebuilding, at certain times, for years. Luhnow does not believe he has found
a foolproof method of team building.
太空人的成功或許會加強其他隊認為要成功的最好模式就是打掉重練，不過，球隊要知    
道，重建在某些時候，在好幾年都可以看到價值。不過，Luhnow不認為他找到球隊重建的  
必勝方法。

“There are a hundred different formulas to winning a championship,” he
said. “The Giants had their own formula; they won three championships. The
Cardinals had a formula, the Red Sox had a formula, the Yankees had a
formula. You can’t copy what another team does. You have to do it based on
the players that you have, the revenue that you have, the payroll that you
have, the players you have access to. We did it for us, and it worked.”
「要拿到冠軍有上百種方式，」他說。「巨人有他們的方式，他們拿下三座冠軍。紅雀有  
他們的方式，紅襪，洋基都有。你不能就是拷貝他們的方式，你得要根據你手上有甚麼樣  
的球員，你的預算，你目前的球員薪資，你可以找到的球員名單。我們用我們的方式，而  
它成功了。」

Only four players on the World Series roster — Beltran, Cameron Maybin, Luke
Gregerson and Francisco Liriano — are eligible for free agency. They
accounted for six at-bats and one and two-thirds innings across the seven
games.
在世界大賽的球員名單只有四位--川哥，Cameron Maybin，Luke Gregerson跟Francisco   
Liriano--是有FA資格。他們在七場世界大賽只有6個at-bats，負責了1又2/3局。

The Astros could be back for more. But after waiting so long for one
championship, the man who played more games than anyone else in franchise
history was not thinking too far ahead.
太空人很有可能在回來搶世界大賽，但是在等待這麼久之後拿到第一個冠軍，球團史上打  
最多比賽的球員並沒有想到那麼遠。

“Everybody’s coming back for next year, and I’m sure Jeff will take a look
at that and see whatever we need — but right now, who cares about that?”
Biggio said after Game 7. “That trophy’s going to get on the plane and we’
re going to go home and have a good time.”
「每個人下一季都會回來，我也相信總管Luhnow會好好看一下名單看我們需要甚麼--但是  
現在，誰管那些啊？」Biggio在第七戰結束時說到。「冠軍獎盃將會送上飛機，然後我們  
準備回家，開心的慶祝。」

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 61.220.78.2
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1509943341.A.74C.html
推 triff: 推
推 ken720331: 推
推 testu: 推 看完眼角濕濕的 回顧那段超爛超坦的日子
→ SinShih: 第二段語意有誤 印第安人有拿過冠軍啊
我稍微調整了一下 看看會不會比較好
→ mattaus: 記得ALCS第4、5戰，HOU全隊不是都一副大便臉
推 hakk: 這總管確實有一套
推 SamFuld: Morton大變身真的很強，而且好關鍵。
推 saiulbb: 最可怕是FA那段 球隊主力全留陣中 太空人強盛王朝開始
推 Roshiel: 這種重建成功的GM，身價應該都會水漲船高吧
推 secpeda: 莫忘爛約單身頓
→ Sulstan: First full season是指Crane第一個完整擁有太空人的球季
謝S大 已改
→ a0025068: 坦
推 globekiller: 等小朋友開始FA 前四棒+開口低消1億鎂/1y
→ globekiller: 看會不會學馬林魚開始砍掉重練
推 KingCherry: 應該會留一些吧 這老闆以前說過只要球隊有進步他就會
→ KingCherry: 花錢 而且他也滿有錢的 以前只是不花而已
推 noahlin: 明年冬天就知道肯不肯花錢了
→ noahlin: Keuchel Morton兩個SP Marwin超級工具人
→ noahlin: 公道伯跟Gattis一二號捕手都要變FA
→ noahlin: 春哥Correa仲裁只會越來越貴
→ noahlin: 除了公道伯其他變FA都只會變貴很多
→ noahlin: 這全留2019 payroll直衝200M而去的
推 jet113102: 熬這麼多年真的不容易
推 AZBTPATONY: 如果不留 就梭哈拿去換百大而已
推 fiordiligi: 換聯盟那一段有誤
→ fiordiligi: 換聯盟是賣球隊給Crane的條件
謝謝指正 已修
※ 編輯: pneumo (61.220.78.2), 11/06/2017 14:59:39
※ testu:轉錄至看板 Astros                                         11/06 15:29
推 niravaabhas: 終於啊！下一個會是笑臉人嗎
推 JosephLuke: 恭喜太空人！
推 kauchung: 推 感謝翻譯
推 tp6m4g0: 麥哭伯今年很穩
推 carrhung: 推一個