Hubie Brown看騎士奪冠可能性

[arenasis (Mr.Vengeance)]

Hubie Brown是一位經驗豐富，非常值得尊敬的教練。部分球迷（多半是騎士迷）
可能依稀有印象，前年球季Mike Brown教頭在騎士的領導力一度受到質疑，也傳
出許多LBJ與他不合的傳言。當時最嚴重的情況是騎士不排除更換教練，Hubie
Brown就在克里夫蘭媒體的預測名單當中，不過由於他當初辭退教練職的原因就是
身體狀況不堪負荷，這件事情就不了了之。

本篇外電沒有複雜的理論，高深的語彙，不過深入淺出，值得一讀。


Are the Cavs Now the Title Favorites?

By Hubie Brown, ESPN.com

The Cleveland Cavaliers took the eventual champion Boston Celtics to the
limit in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year. This year, they are
vastly improved, and with their surge over the past month or two, they are
now considered by some to be the odds-on favorite to win the championship
this season.I'm not ready to say that yet. There are too many question
marks about the health of the other top teams. But I can't deny that the
Cavs are for real.

去年季後賽一度騎士把塞隊逼到懸崖邊緣，本季實力又長進不少的騎士在三月、二
月的大連勝潮後，儼然被認為奪冠有望。我Hubie認為還得再觀望看看，固然其他頂
尖球隊存在著傷兵困擾，但我不否認騎士的實力是貨真價實。

Look at a few comparisons from this season to last season: A year ago the
Cavs were 27-14 at home; so far this season they are 36-1. But even bigger
than their home record is their improvement on the road this season. A year
ago they were not a good road team, finishing 18-23 away from Cleveland.
So far this season they are 25-13 and one of the few teams in the East with
winning road records. (Boston and Orlando are the others.)

這段舉數據說明騎士的進步，主場從二十七勝十四敗到三十六勝一敗，客場從十八勝
二十三敗到二十五勝十三敗。（可他也提到東區另外有這種客場戰力的是魔術跟塞隊）


Their point differential last season was minus-0.3. This season they are
leading the NBA at plus-8.5. You see an improvement like that from one year
to the next for bad teams, but Cleveland was not a bad team last year.

得失分差從去年負0.3進步到今年正8.5，這種數據通常出現在爛隊勢力大增的情況下
，但大家都知道騎士去年並不是什麼爛隊。

So how did the Cavs make such a big difference? First, their shooting
percentage is much higher. They've gone from 43.9 percent to 46.6 percent.
Their foul shooting percentage has also improved. Last season they were
28th in the league at 71.7 percent. This season they have improved to 75.6
percent.

這段講命中率提高，連罰球都從71.7%長到75.6%。

So we know their offense is better, and obviously that's because of the
additions of Mo Williams and Delonte West. Not only do they score, but they
also shoot at a high percentage. Both shoot over 45 percent from the field
(Williams is at 46.4 percent, West 45.4) and over 40 percent on 3-pointers
combined (Williams shoots 43 percent behind the arc, West 38.9). Also, you
can't foul these two late in games because of their great free throw
percentages (Williams 91.1, West 81.1). Picking up these two guys has proved
to be a great move for the Cavs; they have blended in perfectly. Now LeBron
doesn't have to be the creator in every big spot, and that's helped them
tremendously.

Hubie不光著重數據，並提出看法認為這是Mo與West兩人的表現出色，他提到一個重點
是這兩人不只得分夠多，命中率也夠高。三分線平均有四成，罰球的準度讓對手在比
賽末盤不敢輕易犯規。後衛磨合的成功讓LBJ不用事必躬親的創造每個投籃機會，這是
騎士請來這兩人最大的幫助。

Their numbers have also improved defensively. Last season, they gave up 96.7
points per game; so far this season, it's 90.9. Their defensive backcourt
play is outstanding; plus, Anderson Varejao has been healthy all season and
has really played well. Ben Wallace went down, but they picked up Joe Smith,
and he's been a major plus. He knows their system. He can rebound and defend
at that position. And most important, he can really score the ball.

進攻講完講防守，上季失分96.7下降到90.9，Varejao本季全程健康參與是關鍵，儘管
近期大班戰線離脫，但騎士補進Joe，他熟知騎士的防守系統，有效保護籃板並卡位，
還具有得分能力。

They have had an even greater level of success over the past month or two,
when they have seemingly gone from one of the favorites in the East to
probably the strong favorite to win the NBA title. But before we anoint them,
we need to look at the teams they've played over that span.

再次強調騎士雖然從東區強權一躍變成奪冠熱門，但還是得評估一下其他隊伍再講。

There are plenty of bad teams in the league right now, especially in the
East. The Lakers are stumbling a bit of late, and that has allowed the
Cavaliers to claim the league's best record. It's clear to me that the
Lakers' bench is not functioning at nearly the same level as it was a year
ago down the stretch.

湖人在最近走的稍微有點蹣跚，讓騎士有機可乘角逐聯盟第一。Hubie認為重點是湖人的
板凳表現不如一年前的季末這麼有效率。

I'm not convinced the Cavs will win the NBA title this year. They certainly
could do it, but if Boston has a healthy Kevin Garnett, the Celtics could
come out of the East again this season. Boston is really the only team in the
East that could win a playoff game in Cleveland, but it needs Garnett to be
healthy.

簡單的說他認為東區唯一能在季後賽擊破騎士的就是塞隊，然而大前提是KG的健康狀況
要沒問題。

Orlando is a good team, but it just doesn't have enough weapons. I hate this
word, but Garnett is one of the greatest "warriors" in the history of the
league. This guy plays with pain all the time, and if they have to shut him
down to get set for the playoffs, that makes me think there is something
serious going on.

魔術是強隊但他們還欠缺足夠的武器，而KG雖然是聯盟中一位意志堅強的戰士，但
如果塞隊要他一路休息到季後賽，我很難不去想他的膝蓋問題恐怕非常大（這是
我不同意的地方，魔術是有足夠武器的，他們的麻煩在於要先跟塞隊打一輪XD）

Obviously, the Lakers are another tremendous obstacle for the Cavs' title
hopes. If the Lakers have a healthy Andrew Bynum, they could definitely beat
Cleveland in the Finals even if they didn't have home-court advantage. They
have Kobe Bryant, and he can beat you anytime, anywhere.

更不用說如果湖人在Bynum歸隊的情況下Hubie的看法是即便騎士拿到主場優勢，加
上Kobe的領導，仍然會讓騎士鎩羽而歸。

============================================================================

Bonus:我不知道為什麼有這麼多人在問大班什麼時候回來，現在告訴各位，大班自己說
他暫訂本週四對巫師會出戰。（今天中場騎士隊防護人員去問的）

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.168.84.106
推 v00001:中肯
推 ShineShineJu:我只看最後一句耶 騎士現在基本上就完全沒傷兵了！！
→ ShineShineJu:真是皇家騎士兵團阿  好可怕～
推 l6k5j4:大班在籃下很重要的
推 stupidboy168:魔術可惜少了Nelson　沒了魔法師　魔獸+射手群可能
→ stupidboy168:無法打贏一群半獸人　　
→ stupidboy168:打贏了　還有皇家騎士兵團在後面補槍！！！　XD
推 chink5566:假衰王受傷啦 不知道怎樣
推 Cavsgo:這篇中肯
推 CW4:Joe Smith這個補強真的很有用
推 jds2518:stup大講的真有趣
推 r9210117:倒數第二段感覺他的意思好像不是這樣耶@@
→ szuta:倒數第二段是說KG的傷勢可能真的有很大問題
※ 編輯: arenasis        來自: 118.168.84.106       (04/07 00:16)
→ arenasis:對,感謝,我修文了^^
推 amtb0215:事必躬親 果然是皇帝
→ shwkz:騎士去年對超賽第7戰到底是怎麼輸的...
推 r9210117:張飛單挑呂布
→ cfs:PP大暴走呀   PP和LBJ那場互炸  互相守不住對方
→ doodoohow:是說PP有被LBJ守住一陣子啦 ←硬要挑毛病XD
推 v00001:看今年有沒有這樣的第七場囉
推 celestial318:最後一段是有點太肯定了 不過那是作者的想法
→ greatodin:我想湖人要是沒意外 要擊敗騎士是意料中事吧 囧
推 k7117836:不意外阿 騎士最怕的就是湖人和魔術
推 zric:推
推 kart:最後一段好像原文意思也不同....
推 ben900911:應該是指就算沒有主場優勢 掰嫩回來後也可以搞定騎士
推 TuChicken:湖人真的很邱  唯一破騎士主場的  又斷一堆紀錄
推 neptune317:比起Celtics,魔術對騎士而言說不定更難打
→ neptune317:他們主場那場只贏四分,客場被電11和29分差
推 neptune317:雖然說例行賽參考就好  但是騎士確實沒找到對付湖人和
→ neptune317:魔術的方法
※ 編輯: arenasis        來自: 118.168.65.247       (04/07 08:14)
推 a1317775:去年大家也不是都說湖人會贏賽爾提克
推 tantric:季後賽和例行賽不同 沒有主場優勢和防守不夠好的比較危險
推 Biscuits2003:雖然不是騎士迷，但希望騎士剩下的例行賽主場全都拿
→ Biscuits2003:下...然後季後賽就...桀桀桀       (因為我湖人迷嘛)
推 betterorange:a1317775:去年大家也不是都說湖人會贏賽爾提克 +1