[外絮] Carmelo Anthony不是個頂尖的球員

[Maeno (老墨)]

Carmelo Anthony is not an elite player
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5439653

By Tom Haberstroh
Special to ESPN Insider

Carmelo Anthony has averaged 20 points per game every season since he arrived
 in the NBA. This past campaign, he became the third-youngest player ever to reach
the 10,000-point plateau, behind only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And next
summer, he could hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent.
But despite all those gaudy point totals, the three-time All-Star may not even
 be worth the max deal a team would likely give him in 2011.

甜瓜自從進NBA以來, 每季平均得分都在20分以上, 過去這個球季, 他成為
了史上第三年輕達到一萬分里程碑的球員, 僅次於Kobe和LeBron, 而在下個
暑假, 他也即將投身自由球員市場, 儘管這些得分數據看似驚人, 但這位三度
全明星其實並不值得頂級合約。

At first glance, Anthony seems like a member of the NBA's elite, largely due to
his scoring prowess. But a deeper look at the points column and elsewhere in
his game reveals a player who lives on an undeserved reputation more than his
actual impact on wins.

乍看之下, 甜瓜好像屬於NBA頂尖球員之林, 主要是因為他強勢的得分能力,
但仔細看一下他的得分內容和球賽的其他部分, 你就會發現他是個名過其實
的球員。
It's tough to argue with his 28.2 points-per-game average in '09-10, but in the
game of basketball, how a shooter gets his points is more meaningful than the
raw number itself. To see that, we need to peel back the layers.

很難去爭論他上季的28.2 pts/game, 但是就籃球比賽來說, 一個射手如何得到
分數, 比得到多少分數重要, 所以我們抽絲剝繭來看他的得分內容:

Let's first talk about Anthony's shot volume. It's not exactly a secret that
Melo likes to shoot the rock, but his propensity to launch shots may raise
some eyebrows. This past season, no player in the NBA took more shots per
minute than Anthony -- not Kobe, not LeBron, not even scoring champ Kevin
Durant.
It may seem obvious that a player worthy of 20 shots per game would have a
healthy conversion rate. But in Anthony's case, that's far from the truth.
Anthony, in reality, had a below-average field goal percentage (.458) this
past season - and his career percentage (.459) is no different. (The league
average is .463.)

先來說說他出手的量, Melo喜歡投籃不是個秘密, 但是他真正的出手次數
可能令你咋舌, 過去這個球季, 平均每分鐘出手最多的人, 不是Kobe, 不是
LeBron, 甚至不是得分王Durant, 就是Melo, 以常理推斷, 一個每場球出手
20多次的球員, 把球送進籃框的比率應該不差, 但是在Melo身上, 卻完全
不是這回事, Anthony過去這季的命中率(.458)低於全聯盟的平均, 而他的
生涯命中率(.459)也好不到哪去(聯盟平均是.463)

The sharp readers out there will point out that traditional field goal
percentage doesn't reflect Anthony's shooting ability, since he launches a
healthy dose of 3-pointers, which obviously count more on the scoreboard.
That's true. But if you've been paying attention, you know Anthony is not a
good shooter from beyond the arc, so that doesn't help his case. As a career
.308 percent 3-point shooter, his shot from downtown ranks far below the norm
 (the average small forward shot .349 last season; Melo shot .316) and any
progress he seemingly made in 2008-09, when he shot a career-high .371,
disappeared. Even if we incorporate the added point bonus of a 3-pointer, the
Syracuse product's shooting percentages are, at best, average.
It seems that, anyway we slice it, Anthony is a gunner at the core. His
exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's
attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter. But
interestingly enough, Anthony got his shot blocked a whopping 109 times last
season, which ranks as the second-highest total in the league, according to
Hoopdata.com. Evidently, he doesn't lack perseverance.

眼尖的讀者可能會指出傳統的投籃命中率並不無法反應Anthony的投籃
能力, 因為他出手有不少是在投資報酬率比較高的三分球, 的確沒錯, 但
如果你有注意的話, 你知道Anthony並不是個好的三分射手, 所以這點並
沒辦法幫他平反。生涯30.8%的命中率遠低於聯盟平均, 上一季的31.6%
也不如全聯盟小前鋒的平均值(34.9%), 而他2008-09球季的37.1%也證實只
是曇花一現, 即使我們把三分線的成績算進去, 這位雪城大學傑出校友也
充其量是個普通的射手。Anthony很為人稱道的一點是他有辦法在艱困的
環境下完成投籃, 不論是進攻籃框或是高難度的跳投, 但是有趣的是,
Anthony上一季被蓋了驚人的109次, 全聯盟第二高! 還好他並不缺乏投
籃的毅力。

Anthony's case illustrates a fundamental problem in conventional basketball
 analysis: scoring averages don't reflect efficiency. It's true that Anthony
 scored 28.2 points per game last season, but it's also true that no player
 missed more shots as often as Anthony did. Feel free to credit his skill but
 also pay attention his lofty shot volume and playing time.

甜瓜的情形說明了籃球分析上一個很基本的問題: 平均得分無法反應得分
效率, Anthony每場得28.2分是事實, 但是沒有人比他更常投不進也是事實,
你可以褒獎他的得分技巧, 但是且請注意他大量的出手次數及上場時間。

And that's before we consider the disguise of team pace. Since Anthony entered
the league, the Denver Nuggets have averaged 95.9 possessions per game, which
places them as the third -fastest squad in the NBA over that period of time
 (and just a fraction behind the high-octane Phoenix Suns). Over that same
 span, the Nuggets have squeezed out an extra four possessions per game when
compared to the average NBA team. Do the math, and the Nuggets have enjoyed
 nearly 2,000 extra possessions above the norm since Anthony joined the NBA.
 That's a ton of extra opportunities that can pad the per-game stats used as
measuring sticks.

而且我們還沒說到球隊節奏的影響, 自從Anthony進聯盟以來, 金塊隊
每場球的持球進攻次數是95.9, 為NBA這段時間裡步調第三快的球隊
(和第二名的太陽隊只差一點點), 在這段期間裡, 金塊隊每場球要比平
均球隊多出了四次進攻機會, 算算看, 自Anthony加入以來, 金塊隊要
比別人多了2,000多次進攻的機會, 這對場均數據會有非常大的影響。

So after stripping out the inflationary effect of fast pace and boiling down
Anthony's numbers to a per possession level, his scoring punch looks even more
pedestrian. How pedestrian? Anthony's career offensive rating, an efficiency
measure that calculates how many points a player produces per 100 possessions
he uses, checks out at 107, which sits right at the league average. For
reference, 2003 draft-mates James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have earned 114,
 111, and 113 lifetime offensive ratings, respectively.

如果我們扣掉快節奏比賽對數據的膨脹影響, 以每一次持球來分析Anthony的
進攻表現的話, 會得到一個非常路人的數據, 有多路人? Anthony的進攻效率,
也就是分析每100次持球進攻他能製造多少分, 是107, 剛好是聯盟的平均, 參考
一下同梯的成績: James 114, Wade 111, Bosh 113

Before we prematurely call Anthony an average player, there is something to be
said for the burden of trust. Not every player can still perform while
shouldering  the heavy scoring responsibility that Anthony has endured. But
the Nuggets have  probably allowed Anthony to shoot far too often if
efficiency -- and winning -- is  their goal. In fact, last season Melo was
only sixth on his own team in ORtg (110), trailing far behind other legit
weapons like Nene (124), Chauncey Billups (120) and Ty Lawson (118).

先別急著說他是個中等球員, 有些事情還是必須說在前面: 不是每個球員
都可以肩負這麼大的得分重任, 並且持續有聯盟水平的命中率表現, 但是
如果金塊的目標是進攻效率---還有贏球的話, 那他們可能真的要請甜瓜少
投一點, 上個球季Melo的進攻效率在隊上只排第六名, 遠遠落後於Nene,
Billups和Lawson。

Aside from scoring, Anthony doesn't have many other bankable weapons as a
player. His rebounding (career 6.2 rpg) is only slightly better than what
we'd expect from a small forward, and he doesn't create opportunities for his
teammates like Paul Pierce, Wade and James can. Furthermore, he hasn't shown
the intensity and dedication on the defensive end that you'd want from a max
player.
In the end, Anthony's game demonstrates why it's important to strip away the
biases that color our perceptions of elite players. In Anthony's case, the
excessive shot volume, his team's stat-padding tempo and the lack of a true
3-point game makes his 28.2 ppg seem far less impressive than his sparkling
reputation would suggest.
If anything, it's time we moved on from per-game statistics to evaluate our
players.

如果不說得分的話, Anthony實在也沒有太多值得一提的能力, 儘管壯得
像牛一樣, 他的籃板(6.2 rpg)也只在小前鋒的及格邊緣, 而且他也不像
Paul Pierce, Wade和James一樣能替隊友製造得分機會, 再者, 他在防守
端也從未展現你對一個頂級球員所期待的強度和投入。
結論是, 很多假象會讓我們誤以為Anthony是一位頂尖的球員, 他過多的出
手次數, 球隊的快節奏, 以及缺乏真正的三分能力讓他28.2的平均得分看來
黯淡許多, 或許我們不應該再單從場均數據來評斷一位球員

 Millions of dollars are wasted every year basing player value on the archaic
statistics that teams used half a century ago. And someone will surely overpay
Anthony and offer him a max contract -- just look at the deals Joe Johnson and
Rudy Gay got.
If the New York Knicks, rumored to be the favorites to land Melo if he decides
to leave Denver, are expecting salvation from Anthony next summer, they're go-
ing to be very disappointed with their investment. It would be a much a wiser
move to throw that cash toward the pursuit of Chris Paul, a real max player.

每年都有上百萬的冤枉錢花在數據漂亮的球員身上, 我也相信一定有人會
願意給Anthony頂級合約---看看今年的Joe Johnson和Rudy Gay就知道了, 但
是如果紐約尼克隊---傳言中最有可能把Melo從丹佛挖來的球隊---指望在
Anthony身上得到救贖, 重返榮耀的話, 他們將會非常的失望。

把錢省下來搶Chris Paul, 一個真正的頂級球員, 會比較明智。

--

  外電翻譯, 金塊迷勿怪~ 話說我幾年前也是金塊球迷(跟著AI去的),
  但自從兩年前賽季尾聲, 球隊在搶季後賽最後一席, Melo卻還肇事被捕
  這件事之後就對Melo徹底失望了:
  http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7010637201

  In my opinion, Carmelo Anthony is just a taller version of Cedric Ceballos,
  a more coachable (and not much) Glenn Robinson, and a black Tom Chambers.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 203.64.247.95
※ 編輯: Maeno           來自: 203.64.247.95        (08/06 14:54)
推 mirrortear  :怎麼辦  我有點被這篇洗腦了
→ mirrortear  :我本來也覺得甜瓜不錯的  囧
→ susanowo    :我論會被噓不看比賽內容只看數據
推 LAriza      :但他中距離真的很準
→ ksk0516     :戰吧，#1CMi6bIf這篇很多人捧Melo捧很大喔...XD
推 timothykuo  :就算看比賽,MELO的確還是差LBJ&WADE一級的一流球星
→ bluesky3330 :不值頂薪，那比頂薪少50萬好了，打成這樣還不值....
→ bluesky3330 :放在其他年也許不值，今年跟明年？我猜還是拿頂....
推 polarg      :應該是ESPN球評想讓甜瓜明年底新加盟熱火才寫的
推 alan09082006:出手選擇確實有待加強
→ JohnConnor  :Iverson化？
推 dOodoOhOw   :的確Melo不是個會讓人很害怕的球員 但也沒這麼慘吧..
→ alan09082006:不過去尼克薪水絕對不該低於阿罵
→ littlemiddle:底薪沒那麼慘吧 至少也有中產(誤)
推 dwyanes     :公牛板那篇的推文有救了
→ alan09082006:季初別忘他是在"骨折"狀態打了好幾場
推 kb81        :就算他不是個頂尖的球員 卻是同梯裡面最有骨氣的球員
→ littlemiddle:不過認真說真的去邁阿密我就不看NBA了
推 chinhan1216 :等著看有沒有人可以反駁這篇文章@@
推 c80322      :kb81見解相當獨到 不愧是優質湖迷
→ chinhan1216 :因為比賽節奏快 多別人兩千多次出手數 影響場均
推 kb81        :餌也才剛灑下去，這麼快就咬了？
推 TyroneWade  :someone  09-10 .456   career .455
推 woieyufan   :明明不錯用= =
→ heyjude0929 :只看數據的話某強X犯也是弱到掉渣啊
推 dwyanes     :Kobe明明是96梯最沒骨氣的球員 卻被kb81捧為神
推 Altair      :幫Melo平反一下  他關鍵時刻的得分能力是頂尖的
→ e04ckymadam :這篇也沒什麼意義...也同樣是用數字去評斷一位球員
推 kevinaa     :今年PER跟科比差不多  沒想像中好
推 kb81        :可惜安東尼生在西區，不然打馬刺至少也不會被剃光頭
→ ksk0516     :到底是數字沒辦法評斷球員，還是常常球迷的印象不一
→ ksk0516     :定正確？我覺得還滿有趣的
→ e04ckymadam :Melo最大的缺點是沒有領袖氣質...
推 c80322      :稱讚如果被解讀成咬餌我也沒話說摟~~~~~~~摟~~~~~~~~
→ susanowo    :請不要用數字評斷球員，最重要的是"骨氣"阿!!!!!!!!!
推 a0917format :金塊節奏本來就比較快  場均出手數應該也會較多
→ ksk0516     :上面有篇很多板友說Melo進攻能力比LBJ、Wade還強
→ ksk0516     :可是看了這篇好像又有點怪怪的
推 dwyanes     :Kobe沒骨氣 但想到明星賽叫馬龍讓開那股傲氣還是激賞
推 kb81        :而且安東尼也不會拖KOBE出來鞭自己的隊友 人真的很好
推 mingning    :Melo meloly meloed a melo.He's the meloest meloer
推 babylon2    :最後一句漏餡了，LRMR好好想辦法幫西皇補洞吧
推 REAVER      :安東尼的打法偏向大量跳投 中距離又多於三分
→ babylon2    :把別人拖下水並沒辦法拯救西皇呀
→ REAVER      :但是三分命中率真的有點敗筆 雖然中距離真的超準
推 c80322      :甜瓜搭CP3很有搞頭啊 西區應該沒對手了吧
推 hope452162  :數據漂亮不值得高薪，難道要大三零拿高薪嗎…
推 v00001      :拿多少錢是看運氣的
推 Laban       :骨氣能拿總冠軍嗎?
→ babylon2    :ksk我告訴你吧，就MLB數據派的經驗
→ REAVER      :擅長別人黏的很緊或者包夾 但是照樣出手空心...
推 dOodoOhOw   :他有不少三分出手得很勉強 是被隊友硬塞的
→ ksk0516     :這篇討論Melo的也可以酸LBJ，唉。
→ babylon2    :頂級球星還是一樣強，球迷印象不準的大部份在二線
→ babylon2    :球員身上會比較不準
→ dOodoOhOw   :而且他又不像JR是板凳暴徒可以射後不理XD
推 emeraldisle :推論合理 不知道說啥 哈哈
推 e04ckymadam :有Gasol才能拿總冠軍
→ ksk0516     :不過棒球數據的成熟度很解讀性比籃球高出不少吧？
→ babylon2    :我哪有酸LBJ, 我是酸LRMR耶
→ ksk0516     :我不是說你啦，babylon2兄
推 dwyanes     :氣能不能拿冠軍問柯比阿
→ REAVER      :但是缺點就是  分球跟切入   安東尼<<<喇叭and炎帝
噓 frost7321   :又沒有kobe強爆 當然不頂尖
→ sam369      :他本來就ˋ部是頂尖球員 這有什麼好爭議的
→ babylon2    :如果不看最後一句很正常的文章，可是幹嘛加那句
→ babylon2    :然後又是ESPN的作家.......
推 davy50707   :我怎麼開始覺得Durant比Melo強很多
推 kb81        :而且安東尼關鍵一擊的心臟根本不是數據可以說明的
→ ksk0516     :是給尼克看的嗎？XD
推 e04ckymadam :Durant是因為身處的球隊,所以會覺得他很強XD
→ ksk0516     :我覺得比較有趣的是：球迷心目中的印象和這篇提出
→ ksk0516     :的數據一比，好像有點被戳破了？
推 n924127     :分析的蠻透徹的
推 kevinaa     :其實是少個長人抱大腿
推 davy50707   :Danny Granger...
推 jasonp92    :球迷印象確實跟數據有差別阿 看看ROSE被說中距離不準
→ ksk0516     :數據沒有辦法完全解讀比賽是絕對的，但是也不是
→ jasonp92    :全NBA後衛 23呎內跳投命中率只有CP3跟NASH贏他
推 Drexler     :持球進攻能力  帶球攻擊方面真的要加強
→ ksk0516     :完全沒有意義，只能說盡信書不如無書啊:p
→ icem        :是金塊有防守跟籃板強者嗎
→ jasonp92    :比ROSE中距離命中率低的有KOBE LBJ WADE ROY DURANT
→ jasonp92    :HAMILTON
推 Amgine      :老實說 還蠻中肯的
推 vannistl    :請問這個23呎內命中率是純指跳投嗎 還是有含上籃呢?
推 TyroneWade  :jasonnp92 請問您數據在哪看的呢?
→ ksk0516     :jasonp92兄的例子真好:)
→ jasonp92    :HOOPDATA.COM
推 hi770418    :所以看完此篇得到的結論就是  甜瓜適合打控球！
→ hi770418    :這樣他才會多傳球
推 ooxxman     :這篇也是數據阿 只是從另一個面相探討甜瓜
推 Kiri1enko   :所以 AK沒什麼數據 但值得肥約 這是很理所當然地
推 rabbit190   :R.Gay有那麼差嗎............
推 jasonp92    :證據在這..http://0rz.tw/77LRK
推 nightmood   :科科表示：甜瓜你拿到一個救援點了~再接再厲 XD
→ jasonp92    :10-15feet 跳投rose全nba出場35分鐘以上球員排第三
推 clovermars  :那命中率比甜瓜更低的KOBE怎麼辦
→ jasonp92    :16-23 feet 跳投rose 全nba排第7
→ NightElf    :Melo上季對戰把同位置的KD吃死死
推 camel0726   :討論歸討論  幹嘛要酸別的球員哩 資深台灣人  不意外
→ jasonp92    :10 FEET以內跳投 ROSE全NBA 第1
→ clovermars  :a命中率很重要  但是如果它減少出手 給別人丟 金塊
→ clovermars  :我看會更慘 因為防守端壓力少一人
推 spoony      :不曉得KOBE跟MELO比起來是怎樣?
→ clovermars  :kobe 去年.456 生涯 .458
推 MoonSkyFish :16-23 Feet Gasol>Dirk
推 otter       :Melo心臟夠大顆 clutch shot不手軟 這已經是頂級球員
→ otter       :必備的條件了
推 chinhan1216 :KOBE能切能投能傳 有三分 有防守 雖然命中率以此篇算
→ chinhan1216 :低
→ clovermars  :所以KOBE 拿3000千萬是???
→ ksk0516     :之前一篇clutch shot好像名列前茅？
→ chinhan1216 :這篇把Melo講成Melo只是個中距很準的射手而已
噓 kerry0496x  :噓
→ camel0726   :kobe"現在"年薪三千萬? 拜託 先去做功課?
推 tlw0709     :melo應該就是不夠穩定吧 起伏比較大 手段卻不多
推 vannistl    :手段夠多了啦 應該是受情緒影響較多 三分有待加強
推 Doomtrain   :Melo最令人詬病就是出手時機和情緒兩樣東西
推 e04ckymadam :Melo三分不準所以中距離多,進攻籃板是SF裡算多的...
→ Doomtrain   :槍西也說過Melo出手時機需要加強 有時打不進卻愛濫投
噓 sam369      :AK比較強 強過甜瓜
→ Doomtrain   :不過Melo身體素質和絕殺能力 要成為S級還是有本錢的
推 eric2300091 :似乎很有道理  但有什麼數據分析可以證明CP3頂級嗎?
→ eric2300091 :不是懷疑他  只是想看數據分析XD
推 u2gogowin   :這才是真正標準的戰文，要站也要這種程度
推 bearisgod   :發現D.ROSE 出乎意料的準XDD
→ Sakber      :Melo有條件成為S咖 看他怎練吧
噓 u2gogowin   :噓dwyanes
推 dwyanes     :我說錯什麼嗎
→ u2gogowin   :要吵架關KB屁事
→ u2gogowin   :你錯很多阿  無法一一指名
→ dwyanes     :我只是從kb81的話來討論阿
推 kenken7389  :KOBE大喊TRADE ME 非常有骨氣! 寧願走也不要呆在爛隊
推 u2gogowin   :傻傻的  喊一喊而已  你沒看他開季打得多認真
→ u2gogowin   :喊一喊也只簽一個老魚  倒是Buss開季耍蠢還在嗆
推 kb81        :一樣都是在酸，酸的太難看被噓請勿責怪別人
噓 mosby849    :怪了 數學家會打籃球哦
→ u2gogowin   :開放Melo迷回嗆!!!!!
推 rawstuff    :u2gogowin真是仙人肚子裡的蛔蟲(簡稱仙蟲)，
推 dwyanes     :沒酸阿 我很認真
→ dwyanes     :它噓我不認同我  至少我認同你kb81
推 chaoba      :好文好文
推 popopo19    :就算再爛 如果可以拿去跟湖人換KOBE 湖人也是願意
推 hope452162  :讓Melo去湖人，湖人也是覺得大賺
推 teru88      :雖然我也喜歡甜瓜 不過他的命中率真的該提升點
→ teru88      :尤其是3分球...資質好 苦練之後一定會很威的啦~
推 Yanten      :尼克一定兩隻都抓 紐約球隊不知道沒錢
推 a6263623    :不好意思 我覺得說甜瓜的防守不好好像不太對
→ a6263623    :我覺得他的防守再小前鋒裡面應該算是很棒的了
→ a6263623    :金塊的確是以快節奏進攻為主  所以出手數多也還好啦
→ Isoroku5566 :他幾年前防守真的不好，這幾年有改善。
→ Isoroku5566 :之前三分線他都不補位，站著看人家投。
→ a6263623    :去年看他跟湖人西區冠軍戰就覺得他守的不錯
→ a6263623    :對 她最大的缺點就是會放人家投三分= =
→ a6263623    :被蓋鍋多這個數據拿出來討論很奇怪
→ atzkgb      :但他可以單打
→ fatoil27    :MELO很強吧  他的得分能力我個人是覺得不輸LBJ
推 guesswho    :突擊隊長，不意外
推 peter331    :雖然我認為Melo是沒有頂約的水準 但他也被貶的太慘了
→ peter331    :而且我覺得Melo的大屁股單打甚至在被包夾時都很具有
→ peter331    :破壞力。況且金塊除了他以外有誰能一肩扛起得分重任
推 ILNARA      :那不要守他啊 試試看 科科
→ ILNARA      :全方面打法 就他的威脅性最大 不要守阿 肯
→ ILNARA      :他不是那種手感很燙或人來瘋的球員 但紮紮實實把球
→ ILNARA      :塞進籃框就是他的工作
推 lucienken   :KB換甜瓜湖人會要才怪
→ ILNARA      :KOBE在湖人有不可取代性 誰去換都一樣啦
→ ILNARA      :相對melo也是 melo若離開金塊 他對金塊也仁至義盡了
推 shark157    :我認為不能完全以數據看 Melo的技巧相當全面 身體素
→ shark157    :也很好 單就這兩點而言在聯盟可以跟他相比的小前就很
→ shark157    :少了  反而是是數據有太多盲點  比如你看不出來他對
→ shark157    :對手的防守壓力有多大  製造犯規的能力等等  更重要
→ shark157    :的是我認為他在場上的破壞力...拿全盛AI來說  你會因
→ shark157    :為他命中率低而放他投嗎?
→ chinhan1216 :湖人最好會覺得大賺
推 w9103       :有沒有人覺得如果這篇是原PO自己打的就會被噓廢文
→ ko373328    :本來就覺得他打球很普通 ....
噓 hllwolfkhan :...
推 WEIKUNG     :有點被說服
噓 AnthonyLiu  :MELO沒被那樣包夾就不會那樣一直投外線吧
→ AnthonyLiu  :我只能說飛人太有愛忽略了MELO的全面