[外電] 2009-10 Forecast: Indiana Pacers

[PiGFAcE (被遺忘在沙灘上的腳印)]

※ [本文轉錄自 PACERS 看板]

作者: PiGFAcE (被遺忘在沙灘上的腳印) 看板: PACERS


Even with a repeat year from Granger, Indy may struggle to keep pace in the
East race.
就算小葛維持他的腳步, 溜馬依然會在一片喊殺的東區列強中掙扎

http://0rz.tw/iQ5Y9

Mike Dunleavy is returning to Indy's lineup, but he may not recognize many of
the faces around him.
小鄧就快要回來了, 但他可能會發現身邊沒有多少熟面孔.

2008-09 回顧

Although buried well below the national radar, the Pacers were quite a story,
despite numerous injuries they nearly made the playoffs, thanks to an
unconventional but effective offensive approach. Projected to finish in the
depths of the East by most, Indy's hopes were further dimmed by an injury to
star wing Mike Dunleavy Jr. that cost him nearly the entire season. Then, for
good measure, nearly every other important player missed extended time at
some point, too -- other than guard Jarrett Jack, no Pacer played in more
than 74 games.

雖然說溜馬始終不被大家注意, 不過這個球隊的際遇其實可以被當作一個故事, 在傷兵累
累的狀態下, 他們還是幾乎進了季後賽, 而這大多數歸功於上季教練創新但有效率的進攻
戰術. 但說好的季後賽呢? 溜馬隊的希望在明星第二代小鄧的傷勢確定後不再發光, 因為
這導致了小鄧整季的缺席. 不只這樣, 這支球隊不知道哪邊中了邪, 除了鐵血防守控衛傑
克之外, 沒有其它的主力打滿74場.

Indy stayed afloat thanks to a breakout campaign from Danny Granger and a
career year from Troy Murphy, and could have just as easily made the playoffs
as not. Once again, they played a unique style that has garnered little
national attention because they're a lottery team in a small market. But the
Pacers' odd brand of suburban streetball puts up some unusual numbers.

不過溜馬還是保持在一個實力水平之上, 這都要感謝破繭而出的小葛和"今年是我生涯最強
"的莫非, 讓他們再度蟬聯了東區第九名. 再一次的, 他們用他們特別的打法打球並且沒有
受到什麼國際的注意力-一個樂透區邊緣的小市場球隊. 但溜馬獨特的打法還是有一些讓人
值得關注的地方.

For one, they played the league's third-fastest pace even though they didn't
run in transition that much. They just tended to shoot early in the clock,
running a quick pick-and-roll to get a jump shot or swinging the ball around
the perimeter for somebody else to shoot a J. And it was almost always a
jumper -- between Granger, Murphy, T.J. Ford, Brandon Rush and Rasho
Nesterovic, five of the top seven Pacers in field goal attempts leaned
heavily on the jumper.

第一點, 他們是聯盟攻守轉換第三快的球隊, 但其實他們也沒跑那麼多快攻. 他們只是不
猶豫的投籃, 即使進攻時間還有很多. 有時後快速執行擋拆來獲得一個投籃機會, 或是把
球傳到外線空檔的射手手上- 多半是妙麗, 莫大, 福特車, 拉希弟或是大N手上,在溜馬隊
投射次數最多的七人中, 這五人最主要的進攻手段就是跳投.

It was a quirky offense in other respects, too. Most NBA offensive teams take
the majority of their shots from the left side of the floor, but the Pacers
tilted further to the right than Attila the Hun -- Ford, Jack, Rush and
Nesterovic were four of the league's top seven players in proportion of shots
from the right side.

另外還有一個不尋常的地方, 大部分的球隊會選擇在左邊投射結束進攻, 不過溜馬把他反
過來了,就有如從東邊進攻的匈奴大帝阿提拉, 福特車,傑克,拉希弟和大N是聯盟七個愛從
右邊進攻的球員中的四位.

Additionally, coach Jim O'Brien's offense has rediscovered the top of the key
as a shooting location. Most teams all but ignore this space as a station for
3-point shooters, but Indiana constantly had Murphy and Granger spotting up
there and firing away -- so much so that Murphy attempted substantially more
3s from up top than any other player in the five years NBA.com has tracked
the statistic.

另外, 歐比道長的進攻讓大家對出手的位置重新改觀, 大部分的球隊忽略弧頂並且不會把
他當作一個三分投射的好所在, 不過溜馬隊經常性的叫莫非和小葛在那邊投三分, 根據聯
1;37[m盟官方統計, 五年來沒有人像莫大一樣在弧頂投了這麼多三分球.

The combination kept the Pacers' opponents off-balance enough that they
finished at the league's midpoint in offensive efficiency even with the
myriad injuries. The Pacers stayed surprisingly respectable on the defensive
end, too, yielding a field goal percentage beneath the league average and
using a monstrous (and totally unexpected) year on the glass from Murphy to
finish 10th in defensive rebound rate.

這種種的結合打亂了溜馬對手的節奏, 讓溜馬最後在進攻效率上有不錯的表現, 即使溜
馬傷兵累累. 不過, 溜馬的防守也出乎意外的跌破了專家的眼鏡, 讓對手在投籃命中率
維持著聯盟的平均, 並且在莫大怪獸般(無人預期的)的成績下讓溜馬維持第十名的防守
籃板排名.

What kept them out of the playoffs, however, were the free throws. Because it
took so many jumpers Indiana was among the worst teams at drawing fouls,
ranking 29th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt with just .267.
But at the other end, they were among the most prolific at giving them out,
ranking 26th with .354 opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

那話都是 Hollinger 在說, 是什麼讓溜馬進不了季後賽呢? 是罰球, 並不是因為罰球的
命中率不好, 而是因為溜馬投了太多跳投了, 所以說他們幾乎沒有造成對手犯規的能力,
這使得他們成為聯盟中最不會製造犯規的球隊之一, 每次進攻上罰球線的比例只有少少的
.267,排名聯盟第29. 然後他們又很愛給對手上罰球線的機會, 排名第26, 讓對手有 .354
的機會在每次進攻上罰球線.

Added up over nearly 90 shots a game and 82 games, this difference becomes
massive. Indiana gave up 541 more free throw attempts than it earned, a
difference of nearly seven free throw attempts per game. The Pacers outscored
their opponents from the field by 162 points, nearly two a game, and at that
rate they would have won about 46 games with evenly distributed free throw
attempts.

看起來還好, 不過當你把82場比賽每場90次投籃機會加起來的話, 這差別就很巨大了.
溜馬總共少了對手541次罰球機會, 大概每場比賽少了7次. 如果不管罰球的話, 溜馬
在82場比賽中總共贏了對手162分, 差不多每場兩分, 所以如果每場比賽大家罰球機會
均等的話, 溜馬將能贏大約46場比賽.

Unfortunately, they were outscored by 332 at the stripe -- and the only
reason the latter number wasn't worse is that Indiana ranked third by making
80.7 percent of its rare attempts. Conceding four points a game from the
charity stripe meant the Pacers had to badly outshoot their opponents from
the field to win on most nights. They were good enough to do it occasionally,
but it's a tough feat to repeat consistently.

但不幸的, 他們最後整季總共輸給了對手332分, 當然沒有讓他們輸的更慘的原因是因為
溜馬在少少的罰球機會中卻有著80.7的高命中率,排行聯盟第三. 除一下每場溜馬必須努
力趕完這每場四分的差距, 導致他們的外圍射手需要不停的射. 溜馬隊是有能力常常做
到的, 但是要連續性的有穩定表現, 對他們來說還是太難了.

As a result, they didn't win on most nights. They hung tough, however, and
went 17-15 over the final 32 games thanks to strong finishes from Jack and
the rookie Rush (who was miserable for the first two-thirds of the season).
All told it was better than expected, but it wasn't quite good enough.

結果就是, 他們在大多數的晚上並沒有取得勝利. 他們頑強的抵抗著, 也撐到了最後.
無論如何, 在最後32場比賽傑克和拉希弟(前三分之二的球季很悲慘)的爆發之下, 他們
取得了十七勝十五敗的佳績. 他們的成績比預期的還好, 但還是不夠好.

休賽季回顧

If there was a plan for the Pacers' offseason, I've yet to find out what it
was. In fairness, Indiana found itself constrained by financial
considerations because of the declining luxury-tax level in 2010-11. Since
the Pacers are a small-market team they can't go over, and since most of
their players are on long-term deals with 10.5 percent annual raises the tax
situation makes things especially complicated for them. Thus, they were
restricted from signing payers for 2009-10 even though they're well under the
tax at the moment, because any deal longer than a year puts them over the tax
in 2010-11.

如果溜馬休賽季真的有什麼計劃的話, 我實在很想知道他是什麼. 公正的說, 溜馬正視
自己薪資上的問題, 是因為2010-11年豪華稅的壓力, 而因為溜馬是個小市場球隊他們
並不能放任薪資爆表, 而又因為他們的球員簽的都是長約, 有著每年的10.5個百分比的
薪資調漲, 所以一切都變得很複雜.另外, 他們也被限制在這季簽下球員, 雖然他們可
能還沒超過豪華稅, 因為任何超過一年的約都會迫使他們必須在 2010-11 球季支付豪
華稅.

The tax planning made things more difficult for them, but from there they
made several head-scratching moves that cost them talented players and
brought in lesser ones without really saving much money. Although the Pacers
added five players this summer, they lost three key rotation players and
didn't appear to add any newbies who will make more than a negligible impact.
We'll go through the list in order of defensibility:

這些稅使他們更難做事, 但也不是叫他們隨便亂做事. 他們在暑假做了幾個無關痛養的交
易,送走了幾個很有用的球員然後簽下了幾個比較差的,卻沒省下多少錢. 雖然溜馬在暑假
加了五個球員, 但他們失去了三個主要的主力球員,卻沒加進任何能造成衝擊的新臉孔.讓
我們來照著這份名單討論:

Re-signed Josh McRoberts for the minimum. OK, let's start small. McRoberts
isn't a budding star or anything, but he's done enough as an end of the bench
guy to indicate he might be a rotation player at some point. Keeping him for
the minimum makes sense.

用很小的錢重新簽了蘿蔔絲, 好讓我們從小處說起, 蘿蔔絲不是一個未來的明星,
但事他也能當一個板凳末端的角色, 甚至在某些場合他能進入輪替名單. 所以花一點小錢
把他留著其實也蠻合理的.

Drafted Tyler Hansbrough and A.J. Price. A little dicier, but we can still
play along. Hansbrough has little star potential but should produce as an
energizer and defender, and the Pacers could use another defender at the
power forward spot given Murphy's shortcomings in that department. There were
definitely better players left on the board, but if Indy was determined to
take a 4 he was the best big man that hadn't been nabbed. Price was a late
second-round pick who isn't likely to play much as a rookie given the crowd
at point guard.

選進漢堡和小普萊斯,有點冒險,但我們還能接受. 漢堡只有一點點明星潛力但是他
可以當一個不錯的能量因子和防守者, 溜馬也可以把他擺在大前鋒的位置防守, 來掩蓋
些莫大的缺點. 那時選秀會上一定有比漢堡更好的人選, 不過如果溜馬要選一個大前鋒
, 他就會是還沒被選到的最好的大個子. 小普萊斯是一個第二輪末端的後衛, 在擁擠的
後場中,他應該沒有太多上場的時間.

Let Rasho Nesterovic go, signed Solomon Jones for the minimum. Nesterovic
signed for peanuts in Toronto, and the Pacers replaced him with Jones, who
couldn't get minutes in an Atlanta frontcourt that had only three players.
He's long and lean and will fit right in with the prodigious fouling program
in Indy, but otherwise is a major downgrade who saved little money.

放走大N, 用最低薪資簽下所羅門瓊斯. 大N接著就被暴龍簽下, 然後溜馬用瓊斯取代他.
瓊斯在只有三人的老鷹前場中, 都不能得到上場時間, 他很高很瘦然後會跟溜馬這套偉
大的犯規系統很合, 但其實這是個主力球員的降級, 而且沒省到什麼錢.

Let Jarrett Jack go, signed Earl Watson for one year, $2.9 million. Indiana's
decision to decline matching Toronto's $20 million offer sheet to Jack was
defensible -- though he played very well down the stretch last season, he
didn't have a particularly good year overall and wasn't worth that kind of
money for a cash-strapped team. So far, so good. But signing Watson for $2.9
million was a serious reach in light of the other moves above. Watson played
very poorly last season and shouldn't have commanded more than the veteran's
minimum, while several better players signed with other teams for less money.
Which takes us to the piece de resistance:

放走傑克,簽下華生,兩百九十萬. 溜馬選擇不跟進暴龍兩千萬美金的報價是合理的, 雖
然他上季打得不錯尤其在下半季甚至打上了先發的位子, 但他並沒有整季優良的表現,
而且對於一個沒錢的球隊他也不值得那個錢. 不過使用兩百九十萬簽下華生卻有點太多
了,華生上球季打得很爛,他只值最低薪資,而且檯面上有更多比華生好的球員拿到比他
更低的薪資, 所以這個決定讓我們覺得值得觀察.

Let Marquis Daniels go, signed Dahntay Jones to a four-year, $11 million
deal. This move wins the Trenton Hassell Award for 2009 for the most
ridiculous contract given to a role player on a winning team. Jones was on
the scrap heap before Denver picked him up, and there was a reason for that
-- though he's an above-average defender, he's not in the elite class and
he's an absolutely horrid offensive player. Moreover, there's no need
whatsoever to give out a four-year deal for this type of player -- they're
fungible commodities. Quinton Ross, for instance, is essentially the same
player and signed with Dallas for the minimum.

放走淘氣阿丹,簽下二代阿丹瓊斯, 四年一千一百萬美金的合約. 這個改變得到了特蘭登
哈索2009大獎,給成功球隊的功能角色的最荒謬合約. 瓊斯在被金塊撿起來用之前根本就
跟一堆雜魚混在一起, 這是有原因的. 雖然他是一個水準之上的防守者, 但他不是在那
個最佳防守者的等級, 而且他還是個很糟糕的進功球員. 再者, 根本不需要給一個功能
性的球員一個四年的這種合約, 他們很容易被取代. 舉個例子, 小牛隊的拉斯, 就是這種
類型的球員, 被小牛用最低薪簽下.

This is especially vexing because of the scarce resources Indiana committed
to sign Jones -- this was their big free-agent splurge. They could have gone
after younger, more skillful players with the same money (Carlos Delfino,
C.J. Watson, Rodney Carney) or re-signed one of the three key veterans they
let walk in free agency; alternatively, they could also have saved themselves
the cap hit and heated Conseco Fieldhouse this winter by burning 11 million
one-dollar bills.

這實在有點讓人傷腦筋, 因為原本就資金短缺的溜馬竟然還決定花大錢簽下瓊斯 -- 這
簡直是在自由市場糟蹋他們的薪資空間. 他們可以選一些年輕一點, 技巧強一點的球員
, 用同樣的薪水(Delfino,Watson,Carney)或著重新簽下那三個被放到自由是場的關鍵性
球員, 或著他們也可以不用簽, 把這一千一百萬一元美金拿去康賽斯克主場燒掉取暖.

Instead they spent $11 million on Jones, which is more than Nesterovic or
Daniels -- both of whom are eminently superior players -- will make combined
on their new contracts.

但是他們卻選擇了花一千一百萬美金簽下瓊斯, 這比大N或小丹的薪水還多, 這兩位都是
更好的球員, 而且可以跟他們簽複數年合約.

Bought out Jamaal Tinsley. After a year spent unsuccessfully trying to trade
Tinsley, the Pacers finally gave up and released him. Indiana will pay him
$11 million of the $14.7 million that was left on his contract, offering only
a bit of savings compared to what they might have reaped if they'd been able
to deal him. This resolution is unquestionably a setback for Indiana, but at
the margin the savings could prove critical in keeping it under the luxury
tax in 2010-11.

買斷小汀, 在花了一年想辦法交易掉小汀都失敗以後, 溜馬總算放棄了並且丟掉他. 溜馬
打算付他一千五百萬美金薪水中的一千一百萬美金, 省了一點點錢. 雖然看起來好像不怎
麼樣,但這可以確保溜馬在明年在豪華稅門檻之下.

Signed Luther Head to a one-year deal for the minimum. Head has struggled to
find a niche as an undersized 3-point specialist because he can't play the
point but lacks the size to defend many 2s. As a fifth guard, however, he
should be able to hold his own, and Jim O'Brien likes 3-point shooters.
Should Dahntay Jones or Earl Watson bomb he has a chance to move up to a
bigger role.

簽下小頭,一個一年最低薪合約, 小頭一直在掙扎著,試著當一個小號的三分線射手,
因為他沒辦法當控球後衛,也守不住多數的得分後衛. 在溜馬當一個五號後衛, 他應該
能表現的稱職, 而且歐比道長喜歡三分射手. 如果二號小丹或是華生炸掉了, 他就有機會
扮演更重要的角色.


最大優勢

At spots 2 through 4, the Pacers might have the best shooting trio in the
league. Dunleavy proved a capable marksman in his one full season in Indy
prior to the injury, spotting up from the wings for catch-and-shoot 3s and
making 42.4 percent. Murphy, meanwhile, is among the game's sweetest shooting
big men, narrowly missing out on the league lead in 3-point shooting a year
ago at 45.0 percent.

在二號到四號,溜馬有著最棒的射擊三重奏, 小鄧受傷前的那個球季打出了漂亮的表現,
認真的當側翼接球射手並且有著42.4%的命中率.莫大, 是目前聯盟中最棒的大號射手之
一, 以45.0的三分球命中率在排行榜中榜上有名.

And then there's Granger, who had a ridiculous year shooting last season. He
has become the best catch-and-shoot player in the league, pulling the trigger
any time a defender isn't sitting on his right shoulder and usually
converting. He knocked down 40.4 percent from long range while pulling the
trigger seven times a game.

然後就是我們的妙麗, 在上季有個不可思議的球季. 他變成了聯盟中最好的接球射手,
只要在沒人注意他的右手的時候他隨時可以拔起發射. 他有一個40.4%的準確度,並且在
一場比賽發射7次.

What makes all three so dangerous is their size -- at 6-foot-9, 6-11 and 6-9,
respectively, they can get their shots away over most defenders. Thus, late
close-outs won't get it done against these three. The defense needs to be on
top of them right from the catch, which in turn opens up driving lanes for
themselves and others.

而讓這三人變這麼危險的原因是他們的體型, 六尺九, 六呎十一, 和六尺九. 大部分時候
他們可以在大多數防守者手中從容出手. 太慢的防守干擾不到這三人, 防守者得在他們接
到球以後就站在他們前面, 這又使得他們容易切進籃下.

Last season, the trio averaged 6.7 3-pointers per game even with Dunleavy
hobbled, the most of any threesome in the league (yes, even more than
Orlando's Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu, who finished with
6.5). This year they could push the total well over seven if all three are
healthy, and the daunting threat of a trio of 40-percent 3-point shooters
should open lots of lanes for Ford.

上季, 三重奏在小鄧缺席的狀況下,每場比賽投進6.7個三分, 是聯盟中任何一隊的三人
加起來最高的(沒錯,甚至比兩千萬,尼爾森和特克魯還高,他們平均一場6.5)本季如果三
人都健康,他們一定可以達到每場7個以上. 然後這三重奏40%的三分命中率, 可以幫福
特車拉開切入的空間.

劣勢-板凳得分能力

The Pacers have a starting lineup filled with guys who can score but can't
defend. After this offseason, they have a second unit filled with good
defenders, none of whom can score to save their lives. When Indy turns to a
second unit of Watson, Rush, Jones, Foster and Hansbrough, they're counting
on five players with extremely low scoring rates -- Rush, at a meager 13.5
points per 40 minutes, was the best of the bunch last season.

溜馬的先發充滿著可以得分但不能防守的球員. 在賽季結束後, 他們找了些防守很好的球
員來當替補, 不過卻沒有得分火力強大的球員. 當他們換上板凳陣容, 華生,拉希弟,瓊斯
,佛爺和漢堡, 他們就會有五個低得分效率的球員. 拉希弟, 每40分鐘可以得13.5分,是上
季這群球員中最好的.

It's not entirely clear how the Pacers might generate offense with such a
group, or who would be the go-to guy in such an alignment. One supposes it
might be Hansbrough by process of elimination, since he's the only one who
hasn't proven he can't handle such a responsibility.

我們還不清楚溜馬隊在這群替補中要怎麼製造進攻機會, 或是誰會成為關鍵的得分角色
,我們覺得可能是漢堡,因為他是唯一一個還沒被證明他不能的人.

All of which takes us to the more likely conclusion -- that Indy will have to
shake up its starting lineup to get an offensive player in the second unit.
It wouldn't be a big surprise if Dunleavy ends up coming off the bench in
order to give the subs a primary scoring option and allow Jones or Rush to
act as a defensive stopper with the starting unit.

所以我們可以推斷出一個結論, 溜馬要把他們先發打散, 讓幾個攻擊型球員跟替補一起上
場. 如果小鄧從板凳出發搶分,而先發讓瓊斯或拉希弟上來當大鎖也是有可能的.

Either way, however, we end up with the same math. The Pacers have five
players who can score, and only five. It will be hard for that quintet to
score enough to offset the minimal contributions of the supporting cast.

無論如何呢, 我們還是回到原來的數學算數. 溜馬有五個可以得分的球員,就那五個.
要讓這五人得足夠的分是一件很困難的事.

未來發展

The Pacers would have been a playoff team a year ago with a healthy Dunleavy,
and he's recovered unexpectedly quickly from serious knee surgery and expects
to be in the opening day lineup. That's the good news. The bad news is that
the roster around Dunleavy is no longer anywhere near playoff caliber. The
Pacers gutted much of their core from a year ago by dropping Nesterovic, Jack
and Daniels and replacing them with scrap heap talent like the two Joneses
and Watson.

溜馬在去年如果有健康的小鄧, 就會是一支季後賽球隊, 然後他在以很快的速度從膝蓋
手術中回復中,並且趕得上開幕戰的先發(在翻譯的時候已經確定他要休兩個月了).這是
個好消息, 壞消息是他身邊的球員已經不是當年他接進季後賽的那些球員了. 溜馬的核心
已經從大N,傑克和小丹換成了兩個瓊斯和華生.

Additionally, the Pacers are highly unlikely to get an encore performance
from Murphy and can't necessarily count on Granger repeating his
extraordinary shooting efforts, either. Factor in the financial constraints
that prevent the Pacers from making in-season upgrades, and this squad looks
much more likely to head down in the standings than head up.

然後呢, 我們高度認為莫大沒辦法在今年複製去年的成績, 又小葛不一定能再次複製
去年那突然長出來的準頭. 薪資限制又綁住溜馬讓他沒辦法在賽季中做提升, 這使得
大家都看衰溜馬.


They'll keep it entertaining at least, as O'Brien's funky offense keeps
opponents off-balance and the fast pace keeps fans engaged, but unless they
get huge years from the five starters they're likely to slip back in the
Eastern pack.

不過他們至少還是會維持華麗的球風, 歐比道長的特殊進攻確實能讓對手的防守失去節奏
, 然後快速的節奏讓球迷能熱情的看球, 不過如果五巨頭沒有打出水準之上的成績, 溜馬
應該又會跌回東區的後段班之中.

Prediction: 31-51, 4th in Central Division, 11th in Eastern Conference

預測: 31勝51敗, 中央組第四, 東區第十一

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