Theory of H2H Drafting
by Haiwei Wang (ADWCTA) — August 28, 2007
http://www.rotofreak.com/articles/theory_of_h2h_drafting.htm
Introduction
This guide will not tell you which picks to make. If you are new to fantasy,
this guide will be very confusing and you will likely miss the point. But
give it a try anyway, it couldn’t hurt and some things are really pretty
basic. That being said, in an experienced environment where every minute
detail in a draft will be re-hashed and beaten to death, it is certainly
important to know at least as much, if not more, about the intricacies of
your draft than your opponents. However, a good draft does not guarantee
victory, and a bad draft does not guarantee failure; they merely help. The
majority of your skill as a fantasy manager is really about the predictions
and pickups/trades you make throughout the season. Note that this guide was
written for H2H leagues with a standard 9 categories and 12 players, 13
positions (also known as Yahoo Standard Format). Enjoy!
Fundamental Theory of Drafting
The fundamental theory of drafting is merely this: “Draft the player that
will contribute the most to your team immediately.” Of course, this presumes
that you know what your team will be focused on and that you have a coherent
strategy in drafting. Why not pick the best player available? Simple, if the
player is available then no one wants him. At this point, he has low value as
trade bait. No players in an experienced environment will “slip under the
radar” except for 10th round and lower. If no one has picked Dwight Howard
that means no one in your league wants Howard that much. So if you don’t
need Howard either, then let him keep falling. Picking him for “value” will
do you no good as you cannot trade him anytime soon. The second part of the
theory is the word “immediately.” Players who you believe will contribute
more as the season goes on have low value now. Without a good starting
performance, you can usually trade for those players at a lower value or in
some cases with a smaller draft, even find them on the waiver wire. This is
not a good way to use a pick. Instead, generally stick with players you know
will do well at the start of the season. Build up a lead against your
opponents and then adjust as the season moves on. This will average out to a
better record at the end of the season. Additionally, it is hard to be sure
that a player will improve as the season goes on due to the possibilities of
injuries and trades. This is not a worthy risk.
Strategy
What exactly is a draft “strategy”? Most people believe this to mean
ranking all NBA players into a giant list and following the list with some
consideration to positions. This is not a good “strategy” for an advanced
level. While certain players in the first few rounds are always tradable
commodities, you will find that for the most part, trades are rather
difficult to pull off. If you draft a cohesive “team” straight from the get
go, you will stand a huge advantage in the beginning and can focus on making
good offers for the one or two players you still “want” instead of “need.”
Instead of the traditional list, a better method is to form separate lists
for each individual “build” you want for a team. Then, while drafting, you
will know that the players on your list are all good players for your build.
Additionally, it is easier if you rank the players by how much they help your
team rather than their actual value. Have a list for actual value on the side
for reference during the draft, but your main list should be a personal
value-based list so through comparison, you can see if you can sleep on those
players which greatly help your team but might not be so great on other people
’s teams.
Cohesive Team
A cohesive team is a team that focuses on certain statistics and ignores
others. A good rule of thumb is to excel in at least 2 statistical categories
and ignore no more than 2. The fewer categories you ignore, the more flexible
your team becomes. However, flexible teams will lose to heavily focused
teams. The perfect balance depends on how many statistics you wish to excel
at, as the more stats you excel at, the more stats you can ignore. For
example, if we plan on building a team around Lebron James, we might easily
solve his free throw percentage (FT%) problem by ignoring the stat category
ft%. In this case, we will then surround him with cheaper players who are not
too good at FT% (i.e. Shaq, Big Ben, Jason Richardson). We then see that we
get a natural boost in rebounds and blocks. Thus, it is only natural that we
will try to excel in rebounds and blocks. Shaq and Lebron are also both good
passers, so if you so choose, you might add Jason Kidd to our team to cover
assists. Note that you will be hard pressed create a cohesive team without
ignoring at least one category. Easily ignored categories include turnovers
(TO), field goal percentage (FG%), FT%, three-pointers-made (3PM) and blocks
as there are players who play all positions who are not especially good at
those categories but excel at others. Rebounds would be a difficult category
to ignore since all big men rebound at least decently. The general rule of
thumb is that for each category you ignore, you MUST excel in at least one
other category. So if you choose to ignore FT% and TO, you must excel in at
least two other categories and remain competitive in the rest.
Injury Insurance (FG%, FT%, TO)
Every category is worth one point right? So naturally it should make no
difference whether I ditch FG% or assists. Well, that's not entirely true.
While each category is weighed equally in determining your final score, your
team will be affected differently when injuries start hitting your team. For
example, if you're relying on Billups' amazing FT% to negate Lebron's poor
FT%, having Billups injured will severely hurt your FT%. On the other hand,
if your entire team shoots around 80% from the line, a hurt Billups will
hardly make a dent in your FT% for the week (note: replacing him with a low
FT% player will still hurt, so you must replace him with another 80% FT
shooter). Also, if you've ditched turnovers, and Wade gets injured, chances
are, your team will still lose the turnovers category, and now also the
points category as well due to the injury. As such, these three categories
deserve special attention. Turnovers are your saving grace if major injuries
befall your top players; ditching this category is to be done with caution.
Further, having a consistent FG% and FT% (where every major contributer to
the category shoots a similar %) is a great way to mitigate the effects of
injuries. Note that on the reverse side, it is especially hard to find good
value players all with the same FG%, FT%, while having low turnovers.
Depending on your draft position and player availability, it is usually not
recommended that you fully injury-proof your team. Just know that all else
being equal, you should shoot for stable FG% and FT%, along with low
turnovers.
Positions
Centers are rare and valuable. If you can draft a good center, many of your
problems are solved. If you can’t, I cannot stress enough how imperative it
is that you have 3 Centers (unless you choose to ignore rebounds/blocks).
Centers take two starting spots and if you have no rotation, that’s one less
game your players can play every time one of your two centers does not have a
game. This usually amounts to 1-3 games lost per week, which can defiantly be
the difference between a category won or lost. You do not want to be the guy
in the 13th round drafting Spencer Hawes because you only have 1 center.
Similarly, make sure you have at least 4 Forwards and 4 Guards and that at
least two of your players can play each guard or forward position.
Contract Years
Every year random players explode onto the scene and others drastically
improve. These are usually the players with expiring contracts. So, go find
out which players have expiring contracts. Value them higher (especially if
they're players in their prime or approaching it). It’s that simple. A
chance to explode is always worth extra consideration. This season, Bonzi
Wells, Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown, Ricky Davis, and Antawn Jamison are a few of
the top players up for new contracts.
Injuries/Suspensions
Don’t think about them. Injuries happen. Yes they happen to some players
more than others, but they are impossible to predict. Ironically, oft-injured
players such as Ilgauskas have had the best treatment in the NBA, and thus
get injured less often and for less time. Do not try to predict the next
Elton Brand in order to avoid him. It will backfire more often than it will
help. Draft players who fit your team. Note that this does not apply to the
chronic injuries like Camby and Grant Hill. Those players will miss games.
That is a fact that even they acknowledge. Players like Webber and Baron
Davis, however, do not fall under this category. They have shown no reasons
to become injured again. The increased chances of them getting injured due to
surgically repaired body parts are negligible compared to season ending
injuries that random athletes all suffer and you should treat them as
healthy. Suspensions also fall under this category. If a player is often
suspended, take that into account (i.e. Artest). If he received a random
suspension like Carmelo, don’t think twice about it.
Risks
Projects are risks: if they don’t pan out, don’t keep them. If you plan on
drafting a project, make sure it’s a hit or miss. A “hit or miss” is a
player that you can recognize in the first 2 weeks whether he deserves to be
on your team. Picking a player who will eventually “improve” but hurt your
team for the first month is not good. Let another player draft him, drop him,
and you can pick him off the free agent list once he shows signs of fantasy
worth. That being said, your draft needs risks. Your draft needs risks that
don’t pan out. Definitely be sure to include a few “hit or misses” in the
later portion of your draft. This frees up spots that you can easily drop for
early season surprises like Garbajosa last season.
Draft Day Trades
If the team you are trying to build requires Wade, but you have the 3rd pick
of the draft, then by all means, if your league allows swapping of draft
positions, swap down to pick #6, where you can still get Wade but get better
later picks. The same goes for individual picks, however those are messy and
not many leagues allow them.
Unknowns
An “unknown” is a player in a new situation he has never been in before.
This includes major trades, free agent additions, major coaching changes, and
rookies. These players are always risks and they will be picked within a wide
spectrum of rounds. In lower rounds, make sure the unknowns you pick are in
the “hit or miss” category. In higher rounds, I recommend valuing those
players at lower values than expected. Although it may seem counterintuitive
not to jump at Lewis in his improved fantasy situation, you never know how a
player will fit in with a team and while avoiding him is tough, do not be the
guy who drafts him as if he was the second coming of Dirk. The general rule
is to not pick those guys too early, and only pick them if they drop a bit.
Sleeping
Although this is very difficult to pull off, it is useful. To sleep on a
player means that although you would feel fine picking Lamar Odom with your
3rd round pick, you think you can still get him on the 4th round. This in
essence gives you two 3rd round picks. Sleeping on known players should only
be used at the almost corners in draft position (2nd, 3rd, 10th, 11th).
Unknown players however, may slip a bit more. Sleeping becomes easier to pull
off if you have a cohesive strategy since your player values are already
different from the general consensus player values. If you have a cohesive
strategy, in a normal draft, you should feel as if you drafted four or five
1st/2nd round picks.
Observation
If your opponent is following this guide or a similar one, you should be able
to tell pretty quickly which players he might be interested in. Observing how
other teams are built will help you predict who you might be able to sleep
on. Note that not all players are drafted based on a coherent strategy.
Early Draft (rounds 1-4)
This is the stage where you define your team. Round 1, always pick the best
player available who you believe, in regards to your draft position, will be
able to provide a solid foundation for making a good team. For example, if you
’re planning on giving up FT%, and you’re thinking of picking Lebron at #3,
but you don’t think Duncan will still be around at #22 for you, then either
don’t pick Lebron or use a different strategy. If Nash falls to you at pick
#11, but you have no idea how to make a team with him, then don’t pick him.
Your round 2-4 picks should directly compliment your first pick and any
experienced observer should now be able to tell what stat you are ignoring
and probably which ones you are trying to excel at. At least one center in
the Early Draft is usually a good policy as well, if only as insurance.
Mid Draft (5-8)
These picks should feel as if they are early round picks for you, because due
to your strategy, these are the exact players you want anyway. Again, taking
risks here is not advised. It is still too early for more than one hit or
miss pick.
Late Draft (9-13)
Here is where you must have at least 2 hit or misses. You should still be
able to snag a few role players that are just perfect for your team, and then
take a few hit or misses for trade value later on or for the possibility of
helping your team. Also, make sure you have 3 centers by now. If you don’t,
get them. Hit and miss centers should not count towards your total of 3
centers.
Parting Words
Even hardcore fantasy basketball can be fun! If you really like Iverson, then
by all means draft him. Just make sure you build your team around him and
choose the right categories to ignore. Hint: it’s not points. You can build
a successful team based on any of the top 20 players. Have fun with it!
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Haiwei Wang is a new column writer for RotoFreak.com. If you'd like to
comment on the article, please chime in on
http://www.realgm.com/boards/baseball/viewforum.php?f=8&sid=084db6fa03b39db841197f5fcfdbfc9c
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