推 susustar:已收 01/24 16:35
課程名稱︰成本效益分析
課程性質︰必修
課程教師︰江瑞祥
開課學院：社會科學院
開課系所︰政治系公行組
考試日期（年月日）︰97.01.17
考試時限（分鐘）：110min
是否需發放獎勵金：是
試題 :
Cast Benefit Analysis Dept. of Political Science/NTU
Final Exam
1. TMRT has the choice of launching one of two products this coming season.
One would be positioned in a stable market and has relatively good
prospects. The other would develop a new market and is most likely either
to fail or to achieve great success. See Table below.
┌──────┬──────────────────────────────┐
│ Product │Possible Results of Product Launch --probability and │
│ Code │financial return │
│ Name ├─────────┬──────────┬─────────┤
│ │ Failure │ Good Product │ Great Success │
├──────┼─────────┼──────────┼─────────┤
│ New model │ 0.2 │ 0.6 │ 0.2 │
├──────┼─────────┼──────────┼─────────┤
│Cutting Edge│ 0.4 │ 0.2 │ 0.4 │
├──────┼─────────┼──────────┼─────────┤
│ │Loss of 3 million│ 2 million profit │ 10 million profit│
└──────┴─────────┴──────────┴─────────┘
(a). Draw decision tree for TMRT's choice, showing all outcomes and
probabilities.(12)
(b). Which product is the better choice? Assume decision based on expected
profit.(5)
(c). Define the concept of "expected value of perfect information"(EVPI).(5)
(d). Calculate the EVPI for the outcomes of the "Cutting Edge" product.(10)
2. See previous problem. The start-up developer of the "cutting edge" product
approaches TMRT and proposes the following deal:
--TMRT invest X million in a new company that would manufacture and
distribute this product.
--TMRT get the right to buy this company for 1 million
--TMRT could avoid any losses(beyond the X million already spent)--if the
"cutting edge" product is a failure, the new company would go bankrupt.
(a). Define "call" and "put" options.(5)
(b). Draw a diagram showing the payoffs from a call option.(5)
(c). Under what circumstances would TMRT exercise the option to buy the new
company?(5)
(d). What is the probability that TMRT would buy the new company, if you had
the option?(10)
(e). What is the value of the option, once TMRT have paid for it?(10)
(f). If the price for the option, X, is 0.5 million -- should TMRT buy it?
TMRT still have the opportunity to assume all risks for the launch of
the "cutting edge" product, as described in previous problem.(10)
3. In your field of professional, define a "real option" that might be worth
using for improving the expected performance of a public service/
infrastructure in which you are interested.
(a). Describe this example.(4)
(b). Is this option: a put or a call? European or American? "in" or "on"
the system?
(c). Identify the cost of acquiring the option.(4)
(d). Define the cost of exercising the option.(4)
(e). Define the conditions that would make it worthwhile to exercise.(4)
(f). Outline how you might go about analyzing the value of this option,
indicating the factors that would lead you to prefer one approach
over another.(4)
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 219.80.180.214
※ 編輯: lic0420 來自: 219.80.180.214 (01/19 00:19)