Re: [分享] Skill versus Luck in Poker

[playerOrz (批樂兒．歐阿力)]

:     Most people today misunderstand poker. Let's be frank: most people
: know poker from the low-stakes games they now play (or grew up playing)
: with their family and friends. In these low-stakes home games,luck often
: plays a much bigger role than skill.

現今很多人誤解了撲克。說白話一點，很多人從一些低利害關係處與家人和朋友來
認識這個遊戲。在這些家庭遊戲中，運氣時常比技巧佔有更重要的地位。

:     The money to be gained or lost in a home tends to mean next to nothing,
: and everyone at th table plays almost every hand to the end. The dealer's
: choice games are often nonstandard, even bizarre variations (often fun)
: where, for example, deuces, black kings, or one-eyed jacks (or all of them)
: are wild. In this type of poker game, people just put their money in the
: middle (in the "pot") and hope to make the best hand. Often, there doesn't
: seem to be much strategy or thought involved. When the evening winds up,
: everyone seems to agree that "Johnny sure was hot tonight!" You don't
: hear anyone saying, "Boy, did Johnny play great tonight. I sure am afraid
: of him at the poker table."

錢在家中增加或減少可以說是什麼關係都沒有，而幾乎所有在桌上的玩家都把每一手牌
玩到結束。玩或不玩常常沒有一定的標準，甚至有些奇特的變動。在這類的撲克遊戲中
，人們只是把錢放到桌上，並且希望可以得到最好的牌。常常沒有什麼戰略。當遊戲快
結束時，每個人會想說：「Johnny今晚運氣真好。」但你卻聽不到有人會說：「Johnny
今晚玩得實在太好了。我好怕在牌桌上遇到他。」
:

: One reason why luck has such a big role in home-style poker games is that
: many of the skills we use in pro-style games just don't come into play in a
: home game. For example, three of the more important skills that we use are
: being patient in determining which starting hands to play, bluffing, and
: reading people. Patience, like discipline, is a virtue in many areas of life,
: and poker is no exception. It is in the nature of professional or tough
: high-stakes poker games that it is mathematically correct to fold a lot of
: hands right away. If you are playing too many hands (which equates to too
: many bad hands) in a tough poker game, you will often find yourself "drawing
: mighty thin," that is, trying to win by catching particular cards that are
: in short supply.

運氣在家庭式撲克牌局中會扮演重要的角色的原因是，很多在專家級遊戲中的技巧不會
在桌上出現。舉例來說，最重要的三個技巧是：耐性，嚇唬和讀牌。耐性，就像是戒律
一樣，生活中很多地方都一樣要有耐性。在高利害關係的遊戲中，要有很多把牌是正確
蓋掉的。如果你玩了太多手牌（不好的牌）在一個硬的遊戲裡，你常常會發現自己愈來
愈弱。只期許拿到幾把特別的牌是不足的。


:
:     The plain fact is that if you play too many hands in a pro-level poker
: game, you just cannot win, certainly not in the long run and probably not
: even on just one given night, no matter how lucky you are. But if you're
: playing a lot of hands in a home poker game, you may be in good shape anyway,
: because the sheer size of the pot will wind up offering you odds suffcient to
: draw to an inside straight (add a nine, for example, to your 7-8-10-J hand)
: or another "unlikely to hit" hand. You'll usually lose, but when you do
: manage to hit the card you need, you're going to win a huge pot.

不管你運氣多好，在專業級撲克局裡，你玩太多把牌就是不會贏。長期來說絕對是不會
贏，甚至一個晚上都撐不過。但你如果在家庭遊戲中玩很多把牌，你或許還可以贏。因
為你有可能不小心在7-8-10-J的牌裡，賭到中洞 9，或其他可能性很低的牌。你經常輸
，但當你中了你要的牌，贏到巨大的錢。

:
:     Further, the number of cards that can complete what you need in the
: late rounds of a hand in a home game is often larger than one sees in the
: pro game, because the dealer has designated various wild cards or rules that
: allow you extra draws or give you chances to buy another card or replace a
: card.
:
:     Because you don't see these big pots and people paying you off with weak
: hands in a pro poker game, patience is crucial there. In the traditional
: home-style poker games, patience not only is not as important but may
: actually clash with the "spirit" of the game -- that "We're all here just to
: have fun and gamble." Playing a more technically informed style may win you
: more money in a home game, but it might also mean that you're not invited back
: the next time the game is held! In a casino poker game or an online poker game
: , of course, you don't need to be concerned that you might not be invited back
: .

在一般的家庭遊戲中，耐性不但沒有那麼重要，甚至可能與他們遊戲只是為了好玩或是
小賭一下的「精神」衝突。你或許可以在技術上在家庭遊戲中贏得很多錢，但這也代表
當下次有牌局時，你將不再被邀請。在賭場或線上當然你就不用擔心你會不會受邀的事
了。

:     Another key difference between home poker games and the games that the
: pros play is that bluffing actually succeeds in the pro-style games! In a home
: game, it's extremely hard to pull off a bluff, because you usually can't bet
: enough money on the last bet to get your opponents to fold. For 25 cents,
: someone who is convinced he is beaten is nontheless willing to throw the two
: bits into the pot, just to see what you have, and, oops, there goes your
: attempted bluff. In fact, in most situations in these home games where there
: is a "bet on the end" (in the last round of action in a given hand), someone
: is always egging someone else on to be the "sheriff." "Bill, you call that boy
: and be the sheriff this hand! We can't let him bluff us!"

另一個關鍵的不同在於，高手在專業桌上的嚇唬有效的成功，但在一個家庭遊戲中卻格
外的困難。因為你常常無法在最後一注下足夠的錢來讓你的對手蓋掉牌。有時候對手只
是想花點錢看看你的牌是什麼。在某些情況，會有「跟到底」的人出現，特別是在最後
幾把的時候。有時還會出現有人慫恿其他人跟到底。

:
:     In the pro game, bluffing is a sound strategy, because in the late stages
: of a hand there aren't many people who haven't folded. If you've been playing
: very few hands (that is, patiently), and have seldom been caught bluffing
: during a day of play, then when you do bluff, it's hard for those remaining
: in the hand to "call you down" through the last bet. Long live the bluff!
: Bluffing well is an art form, and I will be addressing it at various points
: throughout this book. The bluff is one of the poker crafts-man's tools that
: is seldom available to players in wild, friendly, low-stakes games.

在專業的遊戲中，嚇唬是十分重要的策略，但是卻不能拿來對付玩的牌很廣的人。

:
:     Another important element in pro poker games is reading your opponents.
: Are they riding on "hot air" or the real thing? In a lot of home games, there
: is just so much money in the pot, relative to the size of the final bet, that
: it makes sense to call that bet. (What do you have to lose?) In pro poker,
: theres is enough money involved, and enough actual thought processes are being
: utilzed, that many situations come up where you can take advantage of a good
: read -- which might arise either from your ability to detect weakness or
: strength in body language or from your ability to assess the implications of
: the betting pattern on the hand -- and make either a good call or a good fold.
: But it's hard to read someone who hasn't really been thinking about the hand
: and can't possibly be nervous about losing $1.75! The skill factor in poker
: is much higher in the pro game. There is just too much at stake for anyone
: to rely solely on luck.
:
另一個重要的元素是讀你的對手。他們是在買牌，或許是真的有東西？但是當你的對手
並不認真思考他的牌，或是不會緊張於失去一些小錢的時候，這個技巧就用不到了。


:     Let's take a quick glimpse at the high-stakes poker world, an enterprise
: that yields several of my friends over a million dollars a year! At this level
: , too, luck is a factor on any given day, week, or month, but what's different
: is that if you play better poker than your opponents do, pretty consistently,
: you'll find that over almost any two-month period your winnings have exceeded
: your losses. Furthermore, if you play better poker than your opponents over
: a six-month period, your result will have moved very solidly in the winning
: direction. Making a few well-timed bluffs each day will add up to a lot of
: money each year!
:
運氣在每一天，每一個禮拜，每一個月都是一個因子，但不同的是當你真的玩得比你的
對手好的時候，你會發現大約兩個月一個週期，你贏的都比你輸的多。而如果你玩得都
比你的對手還要好的話，你會發現大約六個月一個週期，你的結果會非常穩定的成長。

每天適時的做些嚇唬，你每一年會多贏很多錢。

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: ◆ From: 61.57.148.179

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.57.148.179
※ 編輯: playerOrz       來自: 61.57.148.179        (01/05 06:35)
推 kader1234:下一篇..麻將嚇唬技巧詳述...
推 fullmax:我記得有一次  我連一  打到中後段3筒7條一進聽 手裡北風
→ fullmax:後來進了7條  我打北風並且把骰子拿出來擺 下家搖搖頭
→ fullmax:跟打北風  接著我摸打  下家又打北風  再下一手自摸3筒
→ fullmax:後面連2連3都自摸  那一降贏了9000多
→ fullmax:當時北風桌上見一  我本意是要拿來看門  沒想到意外收效
→ fullmax:所以連莊時骰子也可以先不擺  危急時搞不好能收效XD
→ fullmax:當然  怕會忘記還是先擺好吧
推 a88405971:推用心翻譯 不過不太會玩撲克..還是練習麻將唬人吧 XD
→ playerOrz:這個重點應該不是在Bluff的技巧才對