Navigator's Death Blow? IE 5.0 Arrives

Jesse Berst, Editorial Director
ZDNet AnchorDesk

Will Netscape's Web browser become the Lotus 1-2-3 of the Internet era --
a pioneer that is eventually eviscerated by Microsoft?
The answer will soon become apparent. You just have to know where to look.

Version 5.0 of Microsoft's Internet Explorer went into widespread beta
yesterday. Click for more. Version 5.0 of Netscape Communicator will be
here soon. There's lots of attention on the differences between the two
browsers.

Earlier this year, I explained the fundamental distinction. Netscape is
superior at breakthrough ideas. Microsoft is better at incremental improvements.

You can see Microsoft's philosophy at work in IE 5.0. It offers improvements
in search capability, a redesigned email client, better bookmarks and a
superior implementation of XML.

Distribution. As the Web goes mainstream, Netscape must make its browser the
first one people use. Right now, when people get a new computer, they almost
always begin their browsing experience with IE. And they rarely switch.

Lock-in. Lock-in occurs when it becomes too painful to move from one product
to another. Since both browsers are free, Netscape must convince users to
"invest" in other ways.

The best way is to add features that tie users to the Netcenter Web site.
Smart browsing, address-book synchronization and anytime/anywhere email are
three current Netcenter services with lock-in potential. Netcenter will be
offering more and more services that 1) reside on Netcenter and 2) require
a Netscape browser to work properly.

How to predict the winner. To spot the winner, look for developments that
impact distribution or lock-in.
On the distribution front, watch to see if Netscape can win deals with
Microsoft loyalists such as Dell Computer. Deals that make the Netscape
browser the default on new computers. And Internet Explorer a hard-to-find
option.

On the lock-in front, watch the evolution of Netcenter. If you find yourself
wanting to upgrade to Netscape's next browser because you want the services
on Netcenter, then Netscape is successfully executing its lock-in plan.