推 FlyFreedom :辛苦了 08/25 23:05
推 kusoeni :3支滿貫.. 有總教室練想再試試的嗎? XD 08/25 23:05
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dont-intentionally-walk-teixeira/
by Jack Moore - August 23, 2010
In the fifth inning of yesterday’s game between the Seattle Mariners and the
New York Yankees, the Mariners decided to intentionally walk Mark Teixeira
with runners on second and third and one out in a 1-0 game. With Alex
Rodriguez out of the lineup, that brought up Robinson Cano with the bases
loaded. Cano hit a grand slam, putting the Yankees up 5-0. At that point, the
Yankees win expectancy was over 95%, and a formerly close game was
effectively over.
在昨天洋基與水手之戰的第五局，水手在1:0落後，一人出局，二、三壘有人的情況下
決定故意四壞球保送Mark Teixeira。在A-Rod缺席的情況下，所以是Cano是面對這滿壘
情況的打者。Cano擊出了滿貫砲，讓洋基以5:0拉大比分。在這個時間點，洋基獲勝的
期望值超過了95%，之前的緊張局面一下子就消失不見了。
The Yankees scoring after an intentional walk of Teixeira isn’t exactly
something new. Yesterday marked Teixeira’s fourth intentional walk. Three
times, including yesterday, the result was a grand slam. The other resulted
in a run-scoring wild pitch, a strikeout, and then a two-RBI single. Overall,
Teixeira and both runners in front of him have scored every single time that
he’s been intentionally walked.
其實洋基在故意四壞球保送Teixeira滿壘之後得分不是甚麼新鮮事。
今年Teixeira總共被故意保送4次，包括昨天的其中三次，接下來結局是滿貫砲。
另外一次是暴投之後的得分、三振、兩分打點一壘安打。總之Teixeira跟他前頭兩位跑者
在他被故意保送之後每次都是全部跑回來得分。
Obviously, we wouldn’t expect this to continue to happen every single time,
but that doesn’t make the intentional walk a good strategy in this case. Here
’s what The Book has to say:
顯然我們不能就這樣認為同樣戲碼會持續發生，但這讓在這種情況下去保送他變得不太
妙。底下的討論會說明一切：
If all batters have equal ability, intentionally walking a batter to set up a
double play, force, or other situation is at best a break-even move (or
insignficantly better than a break-even move). Doing so early in the game is
counterproductive, since it increases the odds of a big inning more than it
increases the odds of a scoreless inning.
假定所有的打者都有相等的打擊能力，故意四壞某位打者來製造雙殺、封殺或其他情況
的機會，最多就只是個不賺不賠的舉動(或是稍微比不賺不賠好一點，但也沒差多少)。
在球賽初期這樣做通常是適得其反的，因為比起製造一個不失分的結果，最後成為對方
大局的機率更高。
Now, all batters in the Yankees lineup aren’t of equal ability, but when we
look at those after Teixeira, they are all very good. Alex Rodriguez and
Robinson Cano are typically the two hitting after Teixeira, making them the
important two to examine when it comes to analyzing the value of the
intentional walk. The third batter also matters, but far less; this season it
has been a mix of players such as Jorge Posada, Marcus Thames, Nick Swisher,
and Randy Winn. Overall, though, what matters is that the hitters that come
to bat after Mark Teixeira are well above average, particularly Rodriguez and
Cano.
來看看現在的情況，洋基隊所有的打者當然不是打擊能力都一模一樣，但是現在來看看在
Teixeira後頭的兩位打者，他們兩個都是非常優秀的打者。A-Rod跟Cano基本上本季都一直
待在Teixeira後頭，所以去看這兩個人的打擊能力就是對於分析故意保送的價值而言非常
重要的事情。第三位打者當然也有差，但是重要性遠遠不如前兩位；本季在這裡的打者大
概是Posada/Thames/Swisher/Winn的組合。總之，最重要的是在Teixeira後頭的打者幾乎
都遠超過平均水準，尤其是A-Rod跟Cano。
Using the Markov chain calculator at Tom Tango’s website, we can take a look
at the run expectancy for the composite line of Alex Rodriguez and Robinson
Cano, which is essentially what managers are looking at after walking Mark
Teixeira. The results, unsurprisingly, suggest that the Yankees are probably
going to score a lot of runs after walking Teixeira, even in the situation
with one out and runners and second and third, the situation most conducive
to a productive intentional walk. Here’s what the calculator spits out.
利用Tom Tango的網站上的馬可夫鏈計算機，我們可以來看看A-Rod跟Cano在不同情況下
的得分期望值，這是其他教練在考慮保送Teixeira時第一優先重要的東西。並不讓人意外
，結果顯示在保送Teixeira之後，洋基很有可能會得到很多分數，就算是在1人出局，二
三壘有人的情況下，這時通常最有可能就是故意四壞。這時計算出來的splits是這樣的：
Runners on 2nd, 3rd, 1 out: 1.578 runs
Bases loaded, 1 out: 1.986 runs
1人出局/二三壘有人：1.578分
1人出局/滿壘：1.986分
So opposing managers are essentially forfeiting .4 runs for the opportunity
to say “Well, I didn’t let Mark Teixeira beat me!” at the post game press
conference. The odds of scoring at least 1 run in an inning don’t justify
the managers’ decisions either.
所以敵方教練基本上會多丟0.4分就為了在賽後記者會上說：
"好吧，至少我沒有被Mark Teixeira擊敗！"這句話。
而在這種情況下至少該局被得1分以上的機率同樣也不贊同這個決定：
Runners on 2nd, 3rd, 1 out: .707
Bases loaded, 1 out: .752
1人出局/二三壘有人：0.707
1人出局/滿壘：0.752
Intentionally walking Mark Teixeira is simply not a smart move. The Yankees
lineup behind Teixeira, particularly Cano and Rodriguez, is simply too good,
which just magnifies the fact that the intentional walk adds to the
possibility of a big inning. Four times, opposing managers have attempted to
get out from a jam by walking Teixeira. Four times, at least three runs have
scored. If a manager wants to win, his best option is to pitch to Teixeira
and hope for the best.
故意四壞保送Mark Teixeira通常不會是個好決定。洋基在他之後的打線特別是A-Rod跟
Cano都是很優秀的打者，這只可能提高故意保送之後形成大局的機會。
對方教練總共四次決定保送Mark Teixeira來撐過這個半局，也四次至少後來都被得了3
分以上。如果某個教練真的想要贏球，他最佳選擇應該是去跟Teixeira對決，然後期望
會有好事發生。
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