[譯文] Mailbag: Traded Prospects

[jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)]

http://riveraveblues.com/2010/10/mailbag-traded-prospects-36718/
Mailbag: Traded Prospects  By Mike Axisa

Here’s a special one-question edition of the RAB Mailbag, but don’t worry,
we’ll definitely get to some more throughout the course of the week.

在這次的RAB信箱中要來回應一個特別的問題，但別擔心，我們接下來這一周也會貼出
更多的信箱回覆。(按：最近的Mailbag蠻好看的，雖然還不到真正的off-season時間，
但有很多東西都值得在沒比賽的時候去看看，推薦一下。)

Hey! Since many, many moves were made both prior to the season and during the
season concerning movement of prospects, it doesn’t seem to have affected
the farm system too much. Contrary to this, the farm system as a whole seems
to have taken a giant leap forward, especially with the development of our
young pitching corps. But I still wonder, how much better (in terms of
subjective quality or actual ‘ranking’) would our farm system be if we
still had all the players pre Javy-trade.

哈囉！我們知道這個球季之前還有中途都做了一些牽涉到新秀球員的交易案，看起來
好像沒有對農場造成太大的傷害。不過相反地，這個農場似乎整體看來有很大的躍進，
特別是我們這些年輕的投手新秀。但我還是好奇說，如果我們仍然擁有在Javy交易案
之前的所有球員這個農場會更好多少？

The Yankees have made several trades involving prospects over the last twelve
months, most notably for Curtis Granderson, Javy Vazquez, Boone Logan, Lance
Berkman, and Austin Kearns. As far as we know right now, the Kerry Wood trade
only involves money. Here are the prospects that were dealt away in those
moves, in no particular order: Austin Jackson, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn,
Mark Melancon, Jimmy Paredes, and Zach McAllister. Ian Kennedy surpassed the
rookie limit of 50 big league innings back in 2008, so technically he wasn’t
a prospect at the time of the trade.

洋基過去12個月做了些牽涉到新秀的交易案，其中最引人注目的莫過換來Granderson、
Vazquez、Logan、Berkman和Kearns。而就我們目前看到的來講，Wood的交易案似乎只
用到錢而已。底下是我們在這些交易中送走的新秀，沒有特別排序：Austin Jackson、
Arodys Vizcaino、Mike Dunn、Mark Melancon、Jimmy Paredes和Zack McAllister。
Ian Kennedy在08年就超過rookie資格的50局限制了，所以嚴格講他不算送走的"新秀"。

The best overall prospect with the highest long-term value traded away is
Vizcaino, who posted a 2.22 FIP (2.74 ERA) in 85.1 innings split between
Low-A and High-A this season before being shut down with a small ligament
tear in his elbow that did not require Tommy John surgery. During one stretch
from early-May to mid-June, he went 44 innings between issuing a walk.
Baseball America ranked him the sixth best prospect in the South Atlantic
League two weeks ago, saying he “shows a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96,
a hammer curveball and excellent control … [h]is changeup continues to
improve and could give him a third plus pitch.” It’s a frontline starter
package, for sure. If he was still with the Yanks, he’d almost certainly be
their top pitching prospect if healthy, but I’d probably dock him a bit for
the injury and the uncertainty it brings. For sure, The Killer B’s (Manny
Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Brackman) would have another running
mate, so perhaps we’d be calling them The Killer B’s Plus V.

若以長遠的眼光來看，送走的新秀中最有價值的大概是Vizcaino，他在因小韌帶撕裂傷
本季停機之前在A-A+有著2.22 FIP(2.74 ERA)的成績，而傷勢也不到要開TJ的程度。
在五月初到六月中這段時間，他總共投了44局卻只有1個四壞保送。BA兩個禮拜前把他
排在South Atlantic聯盟新秀第六名，評價是"有著92-94m的速球，最快可到96m，
鐘擺式快速曲球跟優秀的控球能力...他的變速球還在進步中，有機會成為他第三個
plus pitch。"毫無疑問這是個前三號潛力的投球組合。如果他仍然在洋基，他幾乎鐵定
是整個農場中最好的投手新秀，若他健康的話，但我可能會因為他的傷勢跟後續可能會有
的不良影響對他的評價打點折扣。當然如果是這樣的話，現在的Killer B's就會有另外
一個競爭對手，可能會被叫做"The Killer B’s Plus V"。

The best immediate impact guy they traded was Jackson by far. He had a 3.6
fWAR season for the Tigers thanks to a slightly above average .333 wOBA
combined with a strong +4.2 UZR in center. I have a hard time believing that
Jackson would have made the Yanks out of Spring Training had the trade never
gone down, simply because a starting outfield of Jackson, Brett Gardner, and
Nick Swisher would have been very questionable back in April. He likely would
have returned to Triple-A for at least a few weeks, and the Yanks would have
brought in another outfielder, probably Johnny Damon now that I think about
it. If he was still a Yankee prospect, he’d be their second best position
player prospect behind Jesus Montero, but he’d only be in the middle of
their top ten prospects behind Montero and The Killer B’s.

而最能在短時間內給予球隊貢獻的目前為止是Jackson。他在fWAR上繳出了3.6的成績，
感謝那稍微高於平均的.333 wOBA，再加上中外野優異+4.2 UZR的防守。我一直不是很
相信說若沒那個交易，Jackson最後能夠擔任洋基春訓之後的先發外野手，就是因為
Jackson/Gardner/Swisher這個外野組合在四月時看起來實在太有問題了。他可能會先
回3A至少幾個禮拜，然後洋基會想辦法找來另一個外野手，現在想想可能是Damon吧。
若他仍然在洋基，他也許會是他們第二好的野手新秀，僅在Montero之後，但他可能只
能在十大新秀中排名中段班，會在Montero跟The Killer B's之後。

The other four guys were all second tier prospects with similar value.
Melancon is  the best of the bunch as an MLB-ready strikeout reliever, and
sure enough he pitched to a 3.19 FIP (3.12 ERA) with 9.87 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9
in 17.1 innings for Houston after the trade, good for 0.3 fWAR. Dunn spent
most of the season in Triple-A but came up late in the year to post a 3.60
FIP (1.89 ERA) in 19 innings for the Braves, though his impressive 12.79 K/9
came with a hideous 8.05 BB/9. Paredes was one of the system’s better
sleepers, a slick fielding middle infielder with some pop (.130 ISO this
year) and lots of speed (50 steals, 82.0% success rate).

其他四個人都不太算甚麼top prospects，價值都差不多。
Melancon大概是最能稱得上MLB-ready的三振型RP，而他在交易到太空人後的17.1局中
繳出了3.19 FIP、9.87 K/9和4.15 BB/9的成績，0.3的fWAR還算不錯。
Dunn大部分時間都待在3A，球季稍晚才上到大聯盟，成績是19局中3.60 FIP(1.89 ERA)
，不過他有讓人印象深刻的12.79 K/9跟非常嚇人的8.05 BB/9。
Paredes過去是農場中不錯的sleeper，有俐落二游守備的身手還有一點點長打潛力
(今年.130 ISO)還有非常快的速度(50 SB, 82.0% SB%)。

McAllister took a big step back before the trade, getting surpassed by
several of the higher upside arms in the system throughout the summer. Before
the trade he posted a 4.73 FIP (5.03) in 132.1 Triple-A innings after never
having an FIP higher than 3.26 at any level in any season of his career. He
also become exceptionally homer prone, giving up 19 in 24 starts after
surrendering just 17 in the first 74 outings of his career. The numbers after
the trade are from too small a sample to draw any conclusions from (4.08 FIP,
6.88 ERA, 17 IP).

McAllister在交易前是呈現大退步的狀態，差不多在夏天的時候他被一些有更高upside
的投手超越了。交易之前他的成績是132.1局4.73 FIP(5.03 ERA)，過去他的FIP從不曾
在任何層級中高過3.26過。他同時變得非常容易被敲HR，24場先發就被轟了19隻，生涯
之前74場出賽只被轟17隻。這些數據在他交易到印地安人之後的樣本數還不足以下判斷
(4.08 FIP 6.88 ERA, 17IP)。

There’s no question that the Yanks’ system would be considerably stronger
had all of those trades never gone down, and that’s mostly thanks to Jackson
and Vizcaino. Melancon and Dunn are solid depth pieces, Paredes and
interesting low-level guy, but frankly McAllister had no place on a team like
the Yankees and trade bait was almost certainly his ultimate future one way
or the other. The Yanks certainly have a top ten system right now, but if you
add a high upside arm like Arodys and a solid everyday centerfielder in
Jackson (thanks to the benefit of hindsight, of course), it jumps into the
top five, maybe even top three. Their depth would be improved greatly, and
the cache of arms would be even deeper. For fun, here’s a rough top list of
the ten best Yankee prospects had those trades never gone down…

毫無疑問如果這些人還在洋基的農場會有相當程度的提升，若這些交易都沒做的話，而
這主要是因為Jackson跟Vizcaino。Melancon跟Dunn是不錯的投手深度拼圖，但對Paredes
跟McAllister這個有點意思但等級不高的新秀們來說，在像洋基這樣的球隊中是沒有他們
的位置的，而做為交易籌碼之類的幾乎就是他們在這最終的未來。洋基現在確實有著前十
名等級的農場，但如果你把有著高upside的投手像是Arodys跟可靠先發中外野手的
Jackson(有點馬後砲，這我知道)加進去一起看的話，這會是個前五的農場，甚至會是前三
。他們農場的深度會大大提升，投手這個礦區會更加肥沃。底下是粗略猜測如果這些新秀
都沒被送走，洋基農場的前十名新秀名單，做好玩的別太認真。

Jesus Montero
Arodys Vizcaino
Manny Banuelos
Andrew Brackman
Dellin Betances
Austin Jackson
Gary Sanchez
Austin Romine
Slade Heathcott
Hector Noesi

Quibble about the order if you want, but the names are generally correct. No
matter how you slice it, that’s a monster top ten.

如果不合你意儘管批評，但大致上就是這些名字。不管你怎麼去看這張名單，這前十名
都很夠嗆的了。

Remember, prospects serve two purposes: the plug into the big league roster
and trades. They were able to trade Vizcaino because of all the other
high-upside arms they had in-house, and the reason they were able to acquire
a power hitting centerfield with top notch defense like Granderson is because
they had someone like Jackson to deal away. The other guys are just the cost
of doing business, potentially useful pieces for almost certainly useful
pieces. The farm system would be stronger with them, no doubt, but the big
league team is stronger because they traded away, and that’s what matters.

記住，新秀是養來為了兩種目的的：替補上大聯盟的陣容，不然就是拿去交易。
洋基之所以能拿Vizcaino去交易是因為他們家裡已擁有其他幾隻高upside的投手了，而
能夠換來強打的中外野手又具備頂級防守功力的Granderson是因他們有像Jackson這樣的
球員能夠送走。其他的傢伙都只是為了完成交易的零頭，可能成為可以用的新秀拿去換
幾乎已經是可以用的球員。當然洋基農場若這些傢伙還在會更強大，但大聯盟層級卻因
送走他們而更有力，而這才是最重要的事情。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.136.183.152
※ 編輯: jdtrue          來自: 220.136.183.152      (10/13 02:33)
推 unicotexalex:先推再說!
推 siliver     :最後一段是重點~~~~~~
推 fetoyeh     :NYY以前的問題是揮霍 拿新秀去做一些不值得的交易
→ fetoyeh     :但想想節省和吝嗇是兩碼子事 光存在銀行不算真的賺錢
推 shongzcwea  :推一下
推 litt1ewind  :推翻譯 但其實有些地方看不太董..
推 Sechslee    :推
推 roger744    :可惜的是換來的JAVY一點用處也沒
推 wakauo      :光芒被GG了 @@
→ Valter      :結果反倒是當配菜的Logan比較有用
推 fiona       :Lee好強，好家在不用像去年第一場CC下去跟他拼=.=
推 sycc        :Lee完投勝..
推 fiona       :120球 90S30B 0BB，打電動也不是這樣的....。
推 settier     :鬼神小李飛刀!!!  orz
推 farst       :好恐怖=.=.........
→ philluke    :超恐怖= =
→ iso903306   :賭盤可以開了
推 d86012005   :明年小李就要穿條紋球衣了 ＊ˋ( ￣▽￣)ˊ＊*
→ ytyty       :現金人表示：
推 eric2003002 :嗯............ALCS加油!
→ ytyty       :條子的客場優勢，主場劣勢~XD
推 asd25       :AJ我愛你
→ joeyer      :盡量灑 這隻無論如何都要弄到手
→ jackselina  :這種成績要跟CC拿差不多吧 =.=
推 philluke    :應該只會更貴吧= =.........
推 settier     :更貴吧+1  =.=
推 MontaEllis8 :第二輪每隊的Ace都是鬼神級的...
推 headking    :這種成績要拿CC的兩倍吧
推 chancewen   :條子系列戰拼拉╰(‵皿′)╯
→ jdtrue      :...CC等級的salary是可能的(但很拼)  長度大概短一點
推 fetoyeh     :派派不知道再能投幾年的狀況下 當然希望能盤到小李
→ fetoyeh     :但是想也知道不可能不貴的
推 Brackman    :更貴?? CC進FA的時候幾歲,Lee現在幾歲了
→ iso903306   :搶Lee有點太老 同隊CJ Wilson看起來潛力也不錯
推 lovecmgirls :唉...白白被搶了Arodys
推 OoyaoO      :CJWilson明年手沒爆炸才是奇蹟吧
推 Minamii     :Lee比CC老兩歲 當初簽約是兩年前 哪有可能要一樣的約
推 OoyaoO      :Lee要拿比CC還長的約滿難的 不過洋基參戰的話23M/Y
→ OoyaoO      :的價錢是可能的 長度我猜五年
推 hhashoww    :Lee今天投的超棒~~希望我們的AJ也可以回穩!!
推 shineyoung  :補Lee之後還缺一隻先發  大家覺得有可能會是誰呢?
推 ccc73123    :張伯倫吧XD
→ shineyoung  :派派續留是最好的選項 只是AJ...回不回得來呢?(遠目)
推 wen8499     :強烈建議AJ跟LEE同場..投的好大賺,投的X也不算太賠.
推 sh050562    :同意樓上
推 j07242054   :綁這麼多長約真的是好事嘛QQ
推 asdfzx      : CC的約太豪華了 Lee要超越有難度 但NYY肯定參戰Lee
推 inebriety   :希望LEE可以健健康康!!!!!!!!
推 wakauo      :光芒輸了 竟然連game5的BOX都懶的做了 = =
推 brian142857 :小李是現金人明年最重要的目標嗎
推 lovecmgirls :是今年..而且一定要搶到啊!!
推 TrueTears   :wen 那個不就下駟對上駟嗎 XD
推 steven127   :可是lee最近幾年常受傷耶~"~   不夠健康~
→ jdtrue      :今年FA的SP比他健康的也沒幾隻
推 philluke    :這兩年都吃了200ip 都敢賭AJ了~~
推 forcewind   :今天看光芒好像要砍薪資了....那三個好物不撿嘛?
→ jdtrue      :洋基如果要維持200M  剩下空間也沒多大
推 philluke    :Crawford => 我們已經有腿弟了
→ philluke    :Pena => 一壘有鐵爺 而且DH很擠
→ philluke    :Closer => 我們有Mo了 剩下的RP用洗得就好=.=