作者boroboom (芭拉本)
看板NY-Yankees
標題[洋基] New York Times的預測
時間Wed Mar 30 16:59:16 2005
New York Yankees 2005 Preview
By Scott Garbarini, MLB Analyst (Sports Network)
2004 FINISH (101-61) - First Place (AL East); lost to Boston in ALCS
KEY OFFSEASON ADDITIONS: SP - Randy Johnson, 1B - Tino Martinez,
SP - Carl Pavano, RP - Felix Rodriguez,
RP - Mike Stanton, 2B - Tony Womack,
SP - Jaret Wright
KEY OFFSEASON SUBTRACTIONS: 2B - Miguel Cairo, RP - Felix Heredia,
SP - Orlando Hernandez, SP - Jon Lieber,
SP - Esteban Loaiza, OF - Kenny Lofton,
1B - John Olerud, SP - Javier Vazquez
PROJECTED LINEUP: Derek Jeter (SS), Alex Rodriguez (3B), Gary Sheffield (RF),
Jason Giambi (DH), Jorge Posada (C), Hideki Matsui (LF),
Bernie Williams (CF), Tino Martinez (1B), Tony Womack (2B)
PROJECTED ROTATION: Randy Johnson (LHP), Mike Mussina (RHP), Carl Pavano (RHP),
Jaret Wright (RHP), Kevin Brown (RHP)
PROJECTED CLOSER: Mariano Rivera (RHP)
MANAGER: Joe Torre
OVERVIEW
It's been a rough last six months for New York Yankees owner George
Steinbrenner. First "The Boss" had to witness his club put together the
biggest collapse in playoff series history, blowing a three games-to-none
lead in the American League Championship Series to the hated Boston Red Sox.
Then he saw New York's bitter rivals hoist their first world championship
trophy in nearly a century and become the sports world's biggest darlings. As
if that weren't enough, the Yankee organization endured further embarrassment
during the offseason when first baseman Jason Giambi's admission to using
steroids before a federal grand jury investigation was leaked to the public.
It's now been four straight seasons without a world championship for the
Yankees, hardly cause for alarm for most teams. But for Steinbrenner and the
team's demanding and impatient fan base, it's starting to seem like an
eternity. The sense of panic was evident in another offseason spending spree
by New York, one even more lavish than its usual standards. Some of the moves
were curious (Tony Womack, Jaret Wright), some nostalgic (Tino Martinez, Mike
Stanton), but the Yankees did address their most glaring need for a dominant
number one starter by pulling off a trade for Randy Johnson. The addition of
the Big Unit, combined with the free-agent signing of workhouse Carl Pavano,
significantly upgrades a pitching staff whose performance was attributed to
last year's postseason demise.
The Yankee lineup, featuring megastars Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Derek
Jeter and Hideki Matsui, remains among the most feared in the game. New York's
242 home runs in 2004 tied the major-league lead and its 897 runs scored
trailed only the Red Sox for the most in baseball. The offense could be even
more devastating this season, providing Giambi is able to rebound from his
disastrous injury-riddled campaign of a year ago and Rodriguez goes back to
swatting 50 homers like his days in Texas.
INFIELD
There isn't a better left side of the infield, offensively and defensively,
than the combo of Jeter at shortstop and Rodriguez at third. Although A-Rod's
36 homers were his lowest since 1997 and his .286 batting average was 20
points lower than his career mark, he was clearly pressing in his first
season in the Big Apple. Rodriguez had hit at least 40 homers and drove in
111 runs or more in each of the previous six years. It's likely he'll reach
those numbers again in 2005. He also made a smooth transition defensively to
the hot corner and is capable of winning a Gold Glove at the position.
Jeter did earn a Gold Glove, his first, at shortstop last year and rebounded
from a horrendous April to fall just shy of his fifth .300 season in seven
years. The Yankee captain added 23 homers, his most since 1999, and his
leadership qualities and makeup are unquestioned.
Womack, 35, resurrected his career and played a key role in St. Louis' march
to the World Series with a .307 average and 26 steals last season. He signed
a two-year contract to replace the steady Miguel Cairo at second base.
Womack, who will bat ninth in New York's formidable lineup, did commit 15
errors last season and isn't as reliable defensively as his predecessor.
First baseman Martinez, a key cog in the Yankees' four world titles in the
late '90s into 2000, was brought back to allow Giambi to settle into the
designated hitter's role, as well as for his calming clubhouse influence.
Now 37, he's not the hitter he was during his first tour of duty in New York,
but he doesn't need to be spectacular in this lineup. Expect 20 home runs and
a .265 average, solid numbers for a bottom-of-the-order hitter.
Jorge Posada remains one of the game's top offensive catchers, as well as one
of manager Joe Torre's most valued performers. The switch-hitting backstop
has logged 20 or more home runs in each of the last five seasons and has
reached base 40 percent of the time over the last two. His defense is adequate
and he handles the staff well.
OUTFIELD
While Rodriguez's Yankee debut received the most press, Sheffield had the
better first season in pinstripes. The slugging rightfielder put together
an MVP-type year, driving in a team-best 121 runs and matching A-Rod's home
run total of 36. Sheffield put up those numbers despite a nagging left
shoulder injury which required offseason surgery. Now fully healthy, he
should have another banner year offensively, hitting in the middle of the
Bombers' lineup.
The ultra-consistent Matsui nearly doubled his home run total from his first
season in the Bronx, going from 16 in 2003 to 31 last year, while again
driving in over 100 runs. The Japanese icon, who also led the team with a
.298 average, has become one of the majors' most dangerous hitters in the
clutch and plays a solid left field.
The Yankees have two bona fide All-Stars on the outfield corners, but center
field is more of a question mark with longtime starter Bernie Williams'
career on the decline. The 36-year-old Williams is no longer the .300 hitter
or Gold Glove centerfielder he was in his prime, but still shows great
patience and intelligence at the plate.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Giambi is expected to get the lion's share of at-bats in the designated
hitter spot, despite the Yankees' desire to unload his sizeable contract
during the offseason. He is eager to put behind his disastrous 2004 campaign,
in which a mysterious intestinal parasite and a benign tumor limited him to
80 games and he batted a paltry .208 with 12 home runs, 29 less than his
year-end total in both 2002 and '03. Giambi's bat showed signs of life in the
spring, but he will face some serious mental hurdles come April. Not only
must he deal with possible negative fan reactions regarding his involvement
with steroids, but he must overcome whatever doubts of his own abilities
which last year's horrid season may have produced.
Martinez will also see time in the DH role, as Torre will insert Giambi back
at first base on occasion. Due to his propensity for injury, Williams will
also likely receive some at-bats in lieu of playing the field during the
course of the year.
STARTING ROTATION
Last year's Yankee squad was the first team in major league history to reach
100 victories without a 15-game winner on their staff. That should change now
that Johnson has entered the fold. Although he'll be 42 in September, the
five-time Cy Young Award winner still remains among the game's elite
pitchers, as evidenced by his dominating 2004 season. Johnson led the majors
with 290 strikeouts, trailed only Montreal's Livan Hernandez in innings
pitched (245 1/3) and his 2.60 ERA was a shade better than reigning AL Cy
Young Johan Santana's mark. Plus, Johnson threw a perfect game against NL
East champion Atlanta in May.
The additions of Johnson and Pavano to holdover Mike Mussina now gives New
York a top of the rotation that can match any in baseball. The cerebral
Mussina missed some time with an elbow problem and failed to win 17 games (he
finished 12-9) for the first time since joining the Yankees in 2001. His 4.59
ERA, the second-highest of Mussina's career, may also be cause for concern,
but his strong late-season finish suggests he will likely remain a top-flight
starter. One year after helping beat the Yankees in the 2003 World Series,
Pavano enjoyed his best big-league season with Florida. The 29-year-old won
18 games and posted a 3.00 ERA while logging over 220 innings. Pavano's
ability to pitch deep into games will greatly aid a New York bullpen which
wore down towards the end of last year.
After turning around his injury-ravaged career with a 15-win season in 2004,
Wright bolted the Braves and signed a three-year, $21-million contract with
the Yankees. That's a lot of money to spend on a pitcher with a lengthy
history of arm troubles and a 5.09 career ERA, but Steinbrenner can afford to
take such risks.
Wright will form the back end of the rotation along with another brittle
righthander, Kevin Brown, whose most memorable performances of last season
were breaking his left hand after punching a dugout wall and getting torched
by the Boston bats in the deciding Game 7 of the ALCS. Still, the volatile
Brown gives the Yankees a very good fifth starter if healthy.
Swingman Tanyon Sturtze will get first crack at filling in one of the
starting spots. With the age and medical history of this group, he should see
plenty of action. Sturtze's 5.23 career ERA hardly inspires confidence, but
he seems to have won Torre's trust.
BULLPEN
Although a failure in the playoffs, the bullpen was a real area of strength
for the Yankees during the regular season. The unit has added depth this year
with the acquisition of fire balling veteran Felix Rodriguez from
Philadelphia and the expected return to health of Steve Karsay, who has
missed nearly two full seasons with shoulder problems.
Mention of the New York bullpen should always start with Mariano Rivera,
still one of the game's most feared and dependable closers. Rivera saved a
career- high 53 games and had a 1.94 ERA last season, but has been used
sparingly this spring due to bursitis in his right elbow.
The Yanks also boast one of the top setup men in Tom Gordon, who dominated in
that role a year ago. The righthander, who held opposing hitters to a .180
batting average and recorded 96 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings, was named to
the AL All-Star squad by Torre. Gordon can also close if Rivera happens to be
sidelined for any amount of time.
Like Martinez, Stanton played a big role on the Yankees' four recent world
championship teams and has seen better days. The gritty southpaw, who spent
the last two seasons with the crosstown Mets, is still an improvement over
the man he was traded for, Felix Heredia.
Rodriguez has electric stuff and gives Torre another solid option for the
late innings. However, his reputation for not being a big-game pitcher will
certainly be tested in baseball's most intense surroundings. Rodriguez's
presence may mean a reduced role for veteran Paul Quantrill, who is 36 and
became very hittable last season. Quantrill did lead the AL with 86
appearances, the fourth straight year he's pitched in at least 80 games.
BENCH
The Yankees have a very experienced bench corps, another way of saying they're
old. Thirty-seven year-old John Flaherty will again serve as Posada's backup
behind the dish, and the club re-signed graybeard Ruben Sierra as an extra
outfielder and part-time DH. The switch-hitter clubbed 17 home runs last
season and still has some life left in his bat at age 39. Slick-fielding
37-year-old Rey Sanchez was brought in as a backup infielder, while fan
favorite Bubba Crosby, veteran Doug Glanville and former Devil Ray Damian
Rolls are battling for the final outfield spot. Rolls' ability to play the
infield may give him a leg up on the competition.
OUTLOOK
The Yankees' advanced age and lack of depth on the bench and in their farm
system is certainly a concern, but their overall collection of talent makes
them a lock to reach the playoffs for the 11th consecutive season. The
offense is downright scary and the starting pitching has been significantly
bolstered with the additions of Johnson and Pavano. Therefore, New York has
to be considered the favorite to capture the American League pennant if its
core players maintain good health. With a payroll exceeding $200 million and
last season's October collapse still fresh in Steinbrenner's mind, anything
less than a world championship will be deemed a failure.
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