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Yanks, Mets must decide if aces are jokers
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/456183p-383881c.html
For weeks now the path seemed to be clearing nicely for a Subway Series that
would make the last one seem like a preliminary heat, considering the Mets
can match the Yankees in star power, karma and expectations this time around.
Let's face it, the only teams that could make Yankees nervous in October are
the Angels and Red Sox, and maybe the White Sox, and none of them will be
there.
And does it really matter who's hot in the wild-card race in the National
League? The Mets spent the summer proving that, at full throttle, they have
too much horsepower for the rest of a very flawed field of contenders.
But now, out of nowhere comes the bombshell about Randy Johnson's bad back,
which is surely more than just back spasms if the Yankees are talking about
letting him rest for nearly two weeks before a playoff start, as well as the
rare admission of concern Monday from Willie Randolph that Pedro Martinez may
not be ready to start Game 1 of the playoffs, a stance he softened yesterday.
All of which leads to an obvious question: which subway car is in more danger
of being derailed by such news?
As the former GM of the Mets who is now getting an up-close look at the
Yankees as Orioles GM, Jim Duquette may be as qualified as anyone in baseball
to give such an answer.
His take? Double-derailment.
"I don't think either team is deep enough to get by without their ace,"
Duquette said yesterday at the Stadium. "I know (Chien-Ming) Wang has been
pitching the best for the Yankees, but he's unproven in the postseason, so to
me Johnson is still the guy the Yankees have to count on.
"And Pedro is obviously very important to the Mets. Right now, though, it
seems like Pedro may be holding back, being cautious, but at least he's
moving in the right direction. That seems to be a better situation than what
Randy has, if his back is a nagging thing."
We'll see about that. In his last start, on Saturday, Johnson was throwing 92
mph with a sore back, getting hit hard, while Martinez was throwing 83-84 mph
against the Marlins last Thursday with his tender calf muscle, pitching four
no-hit innings before the hitters adjusted to his off-speed stuff and put
together a four-run burst.
The difference is that while Martinez can be masterful with off-speed
deliveries, Johnson needs his power stuff to have a chance.
One American League scout who has seen Johnson recently said yesterday that
he guessed something was bothering the Big Unit.
"His arm slot was lower than usual, I guess because he couldn't finish his
delivery," the scout said. "When that happens, his fastball flattens out -
there's no life on the ball. And his slider tends to hang. When Pedro's
hurting, he has a Plan B. Randy doesn't.
"He's not going to be facing powerhouse lineups (against the Twins, Tigers,
or A's), but I still don't think he'll be able to get through six innings if
he's throwing the way he was when I saw him."
If neither Johnson nor Martinez does much to contribute, then it's a matter
of which team is more equipped to survive without its ace. The Yankees
clearly have the edge at the front end of their rotation, with Wang and Mike
Mussina, as compared to Tom Glavine and El Duque Hernandez for the Mets.
On the other hand, the Mets, with the best bullpen ERA in the NL, are more
equipped to handle either so-so starts or even an early departure, with John
Maine likely to be used as a long man, perhaps turning the ball over to
Roberto Hernandez, Guillermo Mota, Aaron Heilman and Billy Wagner.
Meanwhile, Cory Lidle, pitching last night for the first time in nearly two
weeks because of a finger injury, looked as if he will be ready to assume the
long-man role for the Yankees, allowing three runs in 6 2/3 innings against
the Orioles last night.
But even with Brian Bruney providing an unexpected boost, the Yankee set-up
crew hasn't been as dependable, and Mariano Rivera still has to prove his
recent elbow flare-up will not be a problem.
Of course, you can make the argument that neither Johnson nor Martinez is
quite as vital to his team's championship hopes as their marquee value would
suggest. Johnson, after all, has a 5.00 ERA and has 17 wins only because of
great run support, while Martinez has been a non-factor since late June.
Duquette, for one, wasn't buying such a notion yesterday, and he had a
feeling that more than a few New Yorkers gagged on their morning coffee
reading the surprise news about the two most famous pitchers in the city.
As he put it, "It's different in October. I really think both of those guys
need to be healthy to have the impact that both fan bases expect."
In other words, expectations aren't going to change now. Better that the
conditions of the Big Unit and Pedro do instead.
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