Re: [基襪] Yankees vs RedSox

[Andre (The Tornado)]

※ 引述《Yaz (乘風而來隨風而去)》之銘言：
: :    A three-run walk-off homerun is fascinating, but it is not worth
: :    much more than a three-run homer hit a few innings earlier in the
: :    same game. Yes, it's worth more, but not as much as people would
: :    give credit for.
: There is a huge difference.........
: 一下無人出局一二壘有人且比分相同的時候打一支三分全壘打，球隊獲勝的機率會從
: 0.697提高到0.817，所以這樣的一支三分全壘打提昇了0.120的獲勝機率。
: 九下二人出局一二壘有人而球隊落後兩分時打一支walk-off homerun，球隊獲勝的機
: 率會從0.085直接變成1.000，所以這樣的一支三分全壘打提昇了0.915的獲勝機率。
: 如果有興趣的話可以到http://www.walkoffbalk.com/　去查各種情況的獲勝機率，
: 資料的原始來源是1979年到2004年的比賽。
: clutch performance對球隊來說非常的重要，不管這是不是一項球員的能力。

   Quoted from CCLu："Yes, it's worth more, but not as much as
   people would give credit for.

   And that is exactly why.

   The latter's worth about 7.5 times as the former, WPA wise,
   while both are 3-run HRs. That's just not reasonable.

   The latter did hugely impact the game but it isn't worth that
   much. Let's say a game won 6-5 by two 3-run HR as described
   above. Yes, the 9th inning shot drastically changed and even
   decided the game. Without the first HR, however, the game would
   still have been lost. The HR in the 9th could worth 20% more
   than the one in the 1th, or maybe 50%, 100%, 200%, but definitely
   not 650%.

   I know it's somewhat different and Michael Jordan probably
   won't score only 12 points in a game but would you say his
   game-winning buzz beater worth more than the 10 points he
   scored previously in the game?

--
 My Baseball Blog
 http://www.wretch.cc/blog/andrenomo

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◆ From: 218.35.24.198
推 Luxti: It's you not Yaz to mention the 750% turnout.
推 Andre:Yeah, he didn't. WPA did.
※ 編輯: Andre           來自: 218.35.24.198        (08/18 02:16)
推 jimcal:事實上最後一段很多人也這麼認為。雖然我不。
推 walaykao:Eddie Jones 說的好：與其投進 buzz beater
→ walaykao:我寧願在前三節就把對手幹爆