[新聞] For Pitchers, National League Really Is an Easier Out

[rresonance (rresonance)]

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/14/sports/baseball/14score.html?_r=1&ref=baseball&oref=slogin
Keeping Score
For Pitchers, National League Really Is an Easier Out

By ALAN SCHWARZ
Published: January 14, 2007

The quip has become a chorus.
這似乎成了一種共識

In debating whether Barry Zito will earn his $126 million from the San
Francisco Giants after posting a combined 3.85 earned run average with the
Oakland Athletics the last two seasons, doubters say, “But he is going to
the National League.”
在討論到這兩季在運動家隊防禦率 3.85的Barry Zito
到了舊金山巨人隊  是否能賺到他的1億2仟6百萬  有人會說"他是去國聯"

Roger Clemens is considering a return to the Yankees or the Boston Red Sox
after steamrolling opponents in Houston for three seasons, and warnings sound,
“But he’ll be moving back to the American League.”
在老克揚威太空人三個球季後 考慮回洋基或紅襪時
有些警告的聲音冒出來"這是要回美聯喔"

Randy Johnson gets himself traded from the Yankees back to the Arizona
Diamondbacks, and everyone expects his E.R.A. (a vertiginous 5.00 last season)
 to plummet: “He’ll be much better back in the National League.”
Randy Johnson把自己從洋基交易回響尾蛇 每個人都希望他的防禦率(上季5.00)下降
"回國聯會比較好吧"

For all its status as the senior circuit, the National League has become a
shelter of sorts for pitchers, a safe haven from A.L. lineups that tend to
pelt them with three-run homers and force early showers. Like swinging two
bats in the on-deck circle, pitching in the A.L. — with its designated hitter
and far stronger No. 9 batters — makes moving to the N.L. feel downright
liberating.
長久以來 國聯似乎成了投手的避難所
躲避美聯那種隨時貓支三分全壘打 提早把投手打退場去淋浴的打線
因為美聯有指定打擊還有比較厲害的第九棒
攻擊也比較連貫  到國聯讓投手鬆一口氣

Teams and fans have long understood that a pitcher can see his E.R.A.
fluctuate by half a run just by switching leagues, as if stepping up to or
down from a high curb. But evidence suggests that, less visibly, a pitcher’s
relative effectiveness — his performance compared with that of his league
peers — is affected as well.
長久以來球隊和球迷認為 投手在轉換聯盟時防禦率有半分的差距
但證據顯示這趨勢並不顯著 和同聯盟的表現也有關係

From 2000 through 2005, 57 starting pitchers (those with at least 20 starts
that season) switched leagues the next year — 29 to the N.L. from the A.L.
and 28 in the other direction. Their statistics moved with them: Combined
E.R.A.s for the new National Leaguers decreased to 3.94 from 4.79, or 0.85 of
a run, while their counterparts’ increased to 4.64 from 3.94, a move of 0.70.
但統計2000年到2005年 57位第二年轉換聯盟的先發投手(該季至少20場先發)
其中29位從美聯到國聯的投手防禦率從4.79降到3.94
28位從國聯到美聯的投手 防禦率從3.94升到4.64

This flip-flop comes as no particular surprise. Although the major leagues
are far more homogenous than they once were — free agency allows for easier
osmosis, and umpiring procedures have helped standardize the strike zone —
the designated hitter is a designated hassle.
也不用特別訝異這樣的差距  現在的大聯盟並不像從前那般均衡
自由球員制讓彼此充分交流 裁判也讓好球帶標準化 指定打擊成了指定困擾

Looking deeper, however, presents a more interesting and perhaps illuminating
picture of these pitching environments.
更深入來看 以下將提出更有趣的觀點來看看投手環境的差異

E.R.A.s are shaped by more than a pitcher’s talent: His league, home
ballpark dimensions and other factors can greatly distort an E.R.A. and its
interpretation.
防禦率不僅評估投手的能力也包含了所在的聯盟 球場的尺寸等其他因素

A statistic called E.R.A.+, presented on the Web site baseball-reference.com,
adjusts for these influences and presents a pitcher’s percentage, either
above or below a league’s average. For example, Zito’s 3.83 E.R.A. last
season in Oakland — a good pitchers’ environment — translates to a figure
of 116, or 16 percent better than the A.L. average.
棒球網站reference.com提出的E.R.A.+ 調整上述影響因素
以聯盟平均的百分比呈現 表示投手的表現高出或低於聯盟的平均
例如Zito上季 在一個投手友善的球場防禦率3.83
他的E.R.A.+ 116表示高於美聯平均16%

Theoretically, a pitcher’s E.R.A.+ should not be affected much by a change
in leagues. But switching circuits still seems to make a substantial
difference in how a pitcher performs.
理論上投手的E.R.A.+應不受聯盟轉換的影響 但其實不然

Of the 29 pitchers moving to the N.L. from the A.L., their E.R.A.+ figures
increased to 110 (10 percent above league average) from 97 (just below
average). This smaller shift than in E.R.A. is nonetheless more significant:
It indicates that starters of equal caliber are more successful in the less
suffocating National League.
29位從美聯到國聯的投手 他們的E.R.A.+從97升到110 上升的幅度比防禦率小
但卻顯示在同樣量度標準下 到國聯的先發投手是比較成功的

This almost certainly helped with last season’s emergence of Bronson Arroyo,
traded to Cincinnati from Boston; and Chris Young, who went to San Diego from
Texas. It also provides fuel to the recent argument that the N.L. lags behind
the A.L. in the overall level of talent. Weaker competition results in better
relative performance.
所以這幫了從紅襪到紅人的Bronson Arroyo 以及從遊騎兵到教士隊的Chris Young
也證明最近國聯整體水準低於美聯 比較不激烈的競爭 創造比較好的帳面成績

Pitchers found moving to the A.L. from the N.L. correspondingly unpleasant —
the E.R.A.+ scores of the 28 pitchers decreased to 100 from 113, or to
absolute average from healthily above. (The fact that the two groups moved 13
percentage points in opposite directions was purely coincidental.) A fair
interpretation, then, is that moving to the A.L. is such a challenge that
pitchers, at least temporarily, regress. Take the case of Boston’s Josh
Beckett, whose 5.01 E.R.A. rose faster than the homers he allowed.
從國聯到美聯的28位投手 E.R.A.+從113降到100
(兩個聯盟轉換 都差距13 只是單純巧合)
平心而論對於來到美聯的投手來說 都是挑戰
例如紅襪的Beckett 他的防禦率5.01 比他被轟的全壘打上升得還快

What does this mean to Zito, Johnson and perhaps Clemens? That their new
teams should allow for more than cosmetic differences in their effectiveness.
這對Zito, Johnson甚至 Clemens來說代表什麼?
新的球隊應該會對他們表面上顯示的效率感到滿意

In Zito’s case, should his E.R.A.+ increase to 131 from last year’s 116 —
the same 13 percent jump that his league-hopping predecessors enjoyed — that
and the effects of San Francisco’s roomy AT&T Park could drop his E.R.A.
from 3.83 to a considerably more impressive 3.30.
對Zito來說 他的E.R.A.+ 可能從去年的116上因聯盟的轉換 上升13
加上舊金山的AT&T球場也會讓他的防禦率下降到3.30

A similar translation helps Johnson less. He is moving to a hitters’ park
(Arizona’s Chase Field) from a pitchers’ park (Yankee Stadium), which mutes
the switch in leagues and transforms his E.R.A. to about 4.68 from 5.00.
Other statistical factors suggest Johnson’s 2007 performance will improve
even more — he had a high strikeout rate while giving up few base runners —
but the switch in environments is not necessarily one of them.
類似的轉換對Johnson幫助較小
他要從一個投手球場(Yankee Stadium)到打者球場(Arizona’s Chase Field)
削弱他轉換聯盟的優勢 預測他的防禦率會由5.00下降到4.68
其他統計參數預測RJ 2007的表現會進步較多 有較高的三振率
而也不光是轉換環境的關係

Meanwhile, relocating to Boston or New York would almost certainly bloat
Clemens’s E.R.A. to the 2.50-2.80 range from the 2.30 he posted in Houston
last season. Then again, neither of those teams would complain. When it comes
to switching leagues, some guys remain in another one altogether.
同樣的 到紅襪或到洋基會讓老克的防禦率從2.30略升到2.50-2.80
但同樣的 這兩個球隊都不會抱怨 有些人就是可以在轉換聯盟時維持一樣的水準

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.229.106.25
推 richertkk:推...
推 mmm333:大推 翻的很累厚~~
推 lukehong:洋基是投手球場??
推 CCLu:force early showers 是說投手一早就被打退場去洗澡。
3Q
推 kennypippen:  美聯是打擊天堂 @@"
推 magicagar:比較厲害的第九棒....比方說打擊排行榜第三之類的嗎XD
推 sylviehsiang:程咬金第九棒 到最後倒數幾場才上榜 XD
推 asdfzx:Cano打第九棒的確是讓投手很T.T  0rz........
推 upscom:投手:終於輪到第九棒 蝦密 那ㄟ喜Cano 囧>
※ 編輯: rresonance      來自: 61.229.105.4         (01/16 06:58)
推 eatpeanut:很有趣的一篇文 比板上一些自以為專業但口氣不好的文好
推 jagdzaku:樓上酸人有專業到
推 coyote918:有看有推
推 Romulus:啊這篇本來就專業的啊 XDDDDDDDDDDDDD
→ Romulus:如果板上專業的人寫文章也能收錢我想他們語氣也會好很多XD
推 poqwer:推~
推 RobinsonCano:第九棒....
推 richertkk:樓上的..你今年升級了..變成８番..9番有一個更糟的..XD
推 arthur1018:喔!!記得的話!哎呀!!該睡囉!!明天要回家呢
→ arthur1018:啊!!耍笨!!推錯了~~消掉!
推 tlw0709:真是一篇有趣的文章
推 OLDdaughter:推阿
推 p21325:請問一下 為啥洋基球場是投手球場阿?