推 lovelyhan:看起來對宅宅的期望不是很高啊 囧 03/30 17:49
→ lovelyhan:只是用日投平均值預測宅宅的戰績 其實也有點不公平就是 03/30 17:50
推 galilei:那些小王族群的數據看起來蠻好的阿。小王加油 03/31 00:33
Five Questions: New York Yankees
by SG
March 30, 2007
Despite losing their two starting corner outfielders early in 2006,
the Yankees managed to score 930 runs while cruising to their ninth
consecutive AL East crown. The Yankees won the division by 10 games,
their largest margin of victory since 2002.
The Red Sox re-loaded, adding prized free-agent hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka,
talented but snake-bitten J.D. Drew and shortstop Julio Lugo. Do the
Yankees still have what it takes to emerge as the AL East champion for
what would be the 10th consecutive season? It will depend at least partly
on the answers to these five questions.
1. Who's on first?
Despite having the biggest payroll in baseball, the Yankees can't seem
to avoid entering a season with at least one apparent hole in the lineup.
This year, the hole can be found at first base. Jason Giambi's health
and lack of defensive ability preclude him from manning first base full
time. Andy Phillips put up impressive AAA numbers in 2004 and 2005, but
tanked in his first full season in the majors, hitting .240/.281/.394.
At age 30, Phillips' best days are probably behind him. Doug Mientkiewicz
was signed more for his glove than his bat. Mientkiewicz' defense still
rates well by zone rating, but his offensive projections for 2007 are
about 13 runs worse than an average 1B over 150 games.
Non-Giambi Yankee first basemen hit .229/.277/.382 in 419 plate appearances
in 2006, so the bar is not particularly high for improvement in this area.
So what's the answer? It could well be Rule 5 draftee Josh Phelps.
Phelps' defense is a problem, but he's younger than either Phillips or
Mientkiewicz, projects to hit better than either, and would add more
right-handed pop to a lineup that's become heavily left-handed.
Here are the average projections (CHONE, Marcel, PECOTA and ZiPS) for
Mientkiewicz, Phillips and Phelps.
Mientkiewicz: .257/.338/.388
Phillips: .253/.310/.430
Phelps: .266/.324/.451
Over a full season (150 games), Phelps would be worth about one win more
than either Mientkiewicz or Phillips on offense. He probably gives back
a lot of that value on defense to both; the other two project fairly well
defensively by zone rating. Ideally, an offense/defense platoon of Phelps
and either Mientkiewicz or Phillips would seem the best bet. However,
it looks like the Yankees are leaning toward keeping Phillips and
Mientkiewicz, at Phelps’ expense.
2. How likely is it that Chien-Ming Wang can continue to succeed with a
strikeout rate that would embarrass Kid Madden?
"For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to
career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to
notice that basketball players tend to be tall."
Bill James from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract
Nothing gets statheads more riled up than statistical outliers.
Chien-Ming Wang is one of the current players who seemingly defies
common sabermetric wisdom, as a very successful pitcher who has an
extremely low strikeout rate.
A Google search for "chien-ming wang” lucky returns 23,400 hits.
In the article DIPS, LIPS, and Hips, David Gassko predicted that "Yankees
fans should expect a big step backwards this year."
So why are so many convinced that Wang's success is more the product of
luck than skill? The idea that Wang’s been lucky is not without merit,
if you look at the pitchers who have exhibited similar stats. I calculate
a stat I call K+ by dividing a pitcher's strikeouts per batters faced
by the league average for that season and multiplying by 100. Wang struck
out 76 of the 900 batters he faced in 2006. AL pitchers struck out
14,397 of 85,576. So Wang's K+ in 2006 was (76/900)/(121/85,576) x 100 = 51.
I looked at all pitchers who pitched at least 200 innings in a season
since WWII and had a K+ of less than 60 at age 26 or younger. I got a
list of 20 players plus Wang.
Year one will be the year where they put up the 200 innings and a K+ of 59
or less. Each subsequent year will be the following seasons.
Year 1: 4,644 innings, ERA of 3.86, ERA+ of 120 (21 pitchers)
Year 2: 2,987 innings, ERA of 4.09, ERA+ of 100 (20 pitchers)
Year 3: 2,442 innings, ERA of 4.37, ERA+ of 95 (19 pitchers)
Year 4: 1,908 innings, ERA of 3.84, ERA+ of 105 (15 pitchers)
Year 5: 1,711 innings, ERA of 4.30, ERA+ of 94 (15 pitchers)
Year 6: 1,390 innings, ERA of 4.22, ERA+ of 93 (15 pitchers)
Year 7: 1,149 innings, ERA of 4.25, ERA+ of 92 (12 pitchers)
Year 8: 731 innings, ERA of 4.25, ERA+ of 93 (9 pitchers)
Year 9: 768 innings, ERA of 4.33, ERA+ of 93 (8 pitchers)
Year 10: 425 innings, ERA of 4.35, ERA+ of 93 (6 pitchers)
Year 11: 442 innings, ERA of 4.34, ERA+ of 93 (4 pitchers)
Year 12: 368 innings, ERA of 3.81, ERA+ of 124 (2 pitchers)
Focusing on just Wang’s K rate does ignore the fact that he has
succeeded by managing to keep the ball in the ballpark, and has better
than average control. Wang’s career FIP of 4.03 is not much worse than
his career ERA of 3.77. A pitcher who can keep his walk rate down and
keep his HR rate down can succeed without striking out a lot of hitters.
However, the point is that historically, an extremely low K rate is
not a good indicator for longevity. That doesn't mean Wang can't continue
to succeed, of course. However, he’ll be doing something that few have
been able to do long-term if he does it while striking out such a low
percentage of the batters he faces.
3. Should he stay or should he go?
While this is probably more apt for the end of the season, Alex Rodriguez'
2007 will determine not only the answer to this question, but also how
the Yankees' 2007 plays out.
Much has been made of Rodriguez’ opt-out clause in his contract following
the 2007 season. Fairly or unfairly, a lot of the blame for the Yankees’
failure to win a World Series over the last three seasons has been laid
directly on Rodriguez. A successful season by Rodriguez, helping the
Yankees win the World Series, likely keeps him in pinstripes for the
next few seasons.
Rodriguez has been three different players for the Yankees. The chart
below shows Rodriguez' batting runs above average using linear weights,
and his defense using Chris Dial's system for converting Zone Rating
to runs.
Year Offense Defense Total
2004 +38 +11 +49
2005 +68 -12 +56
2006 +33 -8 +25
In 2004 Rodriguez’s down offensive year (for him) was supplemented with
very good defense, and he was worth about five wins above the average
third baseman. In 2005, Rodriguez had an outstanding offensive season,
making up for a massive defensive dropoff and winning the MVP. Rodriguez’s
2005 was worth six wins above an average third baseman. In 2006, Rodriguez
was worth only 2.5 wins above average, as his offense slipped and his
defense remained negative. If he can rebound to even his 2004 level, it
makes the Yankees two wins better. Rodriguez dropped 15 pounds this
offseason in an attempt to regain some of his agility. This could help
his defense and may help him catch up to fastballs he was having trouble
with last season.
4. What reliever(s) will be enshrined in the Circle of Trust?
Joe Torre has a history of becoming heavily reliant on certain relievers,
often riding them to the point of fatigue or injury/ineffectiveness.
Last year, it was 29-year-old Scott Proctor, who after a couple of
mediocre partial seasons in 2004 and 2005 seemed to harness his 95 mph
fastball, providing the Yankees with 102.1 innings of valuable relief.
Proctor seemed to thrive under the workload. In fact, he improved as
the season went on.
Date IP ERA FIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
4/4/2006 – 6/30/2006 50 4.14 4.69 1.26 3.8 7.2
7/1/2006 – 10/01/2006 52.1 2.92 3.27 .86 2.1 8.4
Proctor’s a risk to decline, not just because of his workload, but because
last year was so out of line with his past performance. To be equipped
to handle that, Torre needs to make better use of all the pitchers in
the seven-man bullpen the Yankees are planning this season. Watch the
performance of newcomer Luis Vizcaino. How he performs early in the
season likely will dictate how much he gets used, which will lessen
the need for a repeat by Proctor. The Yankees have some decent bullpen
depth stashed in the minors this season as well, with Chris Britton
and Brian Bruney. However, having depth but not being willing to use
it defeats the purpose.
5. Who the hell is Kei Igawa?
The Yankees enter 2007 with a lot of question marks in the starting
rotation. It starts at the top with the aforementioned Chien-Ming Wang,
and trickles down to the 38-year-old Mike Mussina. Andy Pettitte is returning
to the place where he made his mark on baseball, but he's had injury issues
at various times in his career. I won't even get into Carl Pavano's injury
and performance issues here.
Then, there's Kei Igawa.
While the Yankees failed to land Matsuzaka, they did win the rights to
Igawa, submitting a high bid of $26 million before signing him for
five years and $20 million. Igawa's physical talent doesn't compare to
Matsuzaka's, but his statistical ledger in Japan is respectable.
In attempting to project what Igawa may do in the majors, I looked at
the following pitchers who made the leap from Japan to the majors.
Akinori Otsuka
Hideki Irabu
Hideo Nomo
Kazuhisa Ishii
Kaz Sasaki
Keiichi Yabu
Masao Kida
Masato Yoshii
Satoru Komiyama
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Takahito Nomura
Takashi Kashiwada
Takashi Saitoh
Tomo Ohka
Collectively, here's how those pitchers performed in Japan.
IP: 12,153
H: 11,260
R: 5,296
ER: 4,734
HR: 902
BB: 4,290
K: 10,097
And here's how that same group performed in MLB.
IP: 6,199
H: 6,000
R: 3,143
ER: 2,900
HR: 776
BB: 2,465
K: 4,903
To translate the Japanese performance into a major league equivalent,
I matched each pitcher's Japanese League innings to their actual major
league innings so that each player contributed to both samples in the
same percentage, and then calculated the differences in the components.
Japan -> MLB
H: 1.10
R: 1.14
ER: 1.16
HR: 1.84
BB: 0.78
SO: 0.87
This group of pitchers gave up 10% more hits, 14% more runs, 16% more
earned runs and 84% more homers, and struck out 13% fewer hitters.
The one positive is that their walk rate improved by 22%.
So what does this all mean for the Yankees? A simple three-year-weighted
average of Igawa's 2004-2006 gives us 195 innings, 188 hits, 21 HRs, 54 BB,
183 K and a 3.54 FIP. Adjusting that using the translations above,
Igawa's line would be 195 innings, 207 hits, 39 HRs, 42 BB, 159 K and
a 4.79 FIP.
So the Yankees are entering 2007 with a starter who's projected components
translate to an ERA close to 5.00.
There's no Marcel projection for Igawa, but Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection
is a 4.77 ERA. If Igawa can pitch 180-200 innings and beat those projections,
it helps mitigate some of the other potential risk factors in the rotation.
If Igawa does disappoint, the Yankees do have Phil Hughes waiting in
the wings. Hughes projects better than any Yankee starter this season,
but projecting pitching is a crapshoot, and projecting a pitcher who
hasn’t even pitched above AA is even more of one. Hughes’ innings
also will be limited this year, to 180 or so, so I don’t think there’s
any chance of him being called up before June.
Less talented than Hughes, but also with decent chances to contribute
this season are Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, Jeff Karstens and
Darrell Rasner. While none have much of a high ceiling (Sanchez possibly
excepted), they can’t be any worse than people like Darrell May,
Tim Redding and Scott Erickson have been for the Yankees over the
last few seasons.
Wrapping it all up
I don’t think there’s any question the Yankees have the most talented
group of position players in baseball, regardless of their age. They
should be able to score 900+ runs again this season. With a little
health and some good fortune, they have an outside chance at 1,000.
It’ll be up to a questionable pitching staff and a less-than-stellar
defense to do their part to get them to the postseason again.
SG writes for the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. When he's not
cursing Joe Torre's bullpen management and thinking up stats to defend
Miguel Cairo, he can be reached via email.
http://tinyurl.com/2ocgzs
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.109.23.211