推 largesperm:開張六給他 讓他贏100塊 04/09 06:47
推 Sanco:後面幾局的領先本來勝率就比較高 因為局數少 但有誰想比賽 04/09 06:57
→ Sanco:從落後開始 到後面才領先的？ 那個推論根本無意義 04/09 06:57
推 speeddd:XD 04/09 07:34
推 PURELOVEGAE:推~~ 04/09 08:01
推 chien533:一看本文開頭就知道一樓會出現台詞XD 04/09 10:40
※ 引述《chenbiyi (該怎麼選擇呢)》之銘言：
: 我為我第一篇"不負責的言論"向A-Rod及各位球迷道歉
: 不想狡辯什麼，就是這樣
: http://yankeesetc.blogspot.com/2007/01/is-arod-clutch.html
: 這篇文章可以解答一些人的疑問
: 若有人有更詳盡和其他打者的比較，歡迎提供
: Some people say that an RBI in the 1st inning is just as important as an RBI
: in the 9th inning. It’s true that a run is a run, but ‘clutch’ hits in
: late innings are more likely to ensure a win only because there are fewer
: innings to play: when a team takes a lead in inning 1, it probably has about
: a 60-70% chance of winning - when it takes a lead in innings 7-9, that
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
: probability must go up to 80-100%. I don’t have the exact data, but it’s
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
: easy to understand this idea. Late, close RBIs are more important than early
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
這根本沒有回答到問題
60-70%跟80-100%的數字是哪裡來的？
這種問題就好像，我覺得Pavano比Wang好
為什麼？因為Pavano上場百分之二十七是Ace，Wang上場百分之14是Ace
我沒有確切的數字證明，但這是很容易了解的
這算什麼-_-?
: 有些人好像覺得前六局打的好 後三局就可以爛?
: 或是前六局好 後三局爛就不能罵?
: 事實上7/8/9局落後三分內的AVG分別是0.219/0.235/0.306
: 是不是又有人要說七八局的投手本來就比第九局強
: 我希望各位球迷是為了要鞭我而鞭我，不是真的覺得A-Rod已經沒有缺點了
問題是，前幾局跟後幾局的差別真的是「能力」嗎？
或者只是巧合？
就像你做一個統計，發現A-rod打金牛座、雙子座跟巨蟹座的投手打得特別爛
所以希望A-rod可以針對這三個星座好好加強一樣
你的前提已經假設clutch or not時的差別是能力的差別
但是有沒有可能那只是個虛假相關？
你舉的文章什麼都沒回答到，只說了一句"it's easy to understand"
並不是寫英文的就不是鄉民喔
下面那兩段，在證明那是能力而非巧合之前，根本無法說明什麼
: Rather interesting. The biggest difference is Arod's tied OPS. Before New
: York, it was 99 points higher than his overall OPS. Since joining New York,
: it is 4 points lower than his overall OPS. Meanwhile, his 'trailing' OPS has
: been lower than his overall OPS throughout his career. But the only area
: where he improved since joing New York is his 'leading' OPS. This is why some
: critics say Arod does all his production when the Yanks are already ahead.
: 來洋基後唯一進步而沒退步的是領先時的OPS
: 有個網友的評論蠻有趣的:
: Don't show these numbers to the A-Rod supporters on here. You'll hear about
: how you "hate" A-Rod, that you "don't know what you're talking about," and
: that you're generally lower than a man who eats babies and that A-Rod is a
: misunderstood genius who would be curing AIDS if he wasn't hitting a baseball
: for the Yankees.
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http://atlyankees.blogspot.com/
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