[評論] Joe Sheehan: The Clemens Signing

[richardcyl (more)]

難得可以在BP上看全文....(我很窮的XD，挑重點翻)

May 7, 2007
Prospectus Today
The Clemens Signing

by Joe Sheehan

With a dramatic seventh-inning announcement, Roger Clemens made himself a
returning hero, a difference-maker, and a whole big pile of cash.

老克以一場戲劇化的聲明讓自己再度變成一個扭轉局面的英雄、以及一大筆錢。

Clemens, who was on his way into retirement the last time he was being
cheered wildly by a Yankee Stadium crowd, agreed to a one-year, $28-million
contract to don pinstripes for the remainder of 2007. The deal is the biggest
in baseball history by average annual value, and includes the highest
single-season salary ever paid to a major-league player. Clemens won’t get
quite that much money, as he won’t join the Yankees for another month, but
two-thirds of that figure, about $18.5 million, makes for quite the incentive
to return. The cost is greater to the Yankees; throw in the luxury tax hit on
this addition to the payroll, and they’re committing about $26 million.

老克簽下一年面額2800萬的合約。
這是棒球歷史上的最高薪合約，
不管是以複數年合約中的平均年薪或是一年合約的年薪來看。
老克當然不會拿到帳面上這麼多錢，他不用等到下一個月才能加入洋基，
因此以他會登錄在大聯盟名單上的時間(2/3個球季)來算，他大概只會領到1850萬，
洋基能給他的時間表和錢，也給了他有相當大的誘因回來。
對洋基而言，請老克回來打一季的成本是太高了，
加計豪華稅有可能會上看2600萬。

It’s not for “four months,” however, as has been reported--the Yankees don
’t make a signing like this without expecting to get an extra month from the
player. Signing Clemens addresses the Yankees’ biggest problem to date, a
starting rotation that has left it behind the eight-ball—or eight-spot—in
far too many games. It provides an upgrade from Kei Igawa, who looks
overmatched, to a legitimate #2 starter, while also preventing Clemens from
providing a comparable upgrade to the Red Sox, who were spurned in the
bidding for their former ace.

當然這並不只是「四個月」的合約，
對洋基來說，他們當然希望能讓火箭人投更多場(10月)。
簽下老克代表的意義是洋基想要補強他們的先發輪值。
老克毫無疑問的是可以將井川所佔掉的那個位子"升級"，並明顯超過一個2號先發的水準，
也避免了紅襪同樣地用老克來為他們的陣容升級。
(紅襪同樣也想要搶下老克。)

What kind of impact are we looking at here? Remember that due to injuries,
the Yankees have gotten a lot of starts from pitchers who weren’t part of
their master plan in February. Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina are back,
Andy Pettitte never really left. Darrell Rasner pitched well enough
yesterday, especially on the heels of Igawa’s stinkbomb Friday, to argue for
a spot ahead of the Japanese left-hander. Philip Hughes is expected to return
a bit after Clemens does. So let’s say that Clemens will be replacing Igawa,
while Hughes takes Rasner’s spot.

在這裡我們要觀察的效果是什麼呢？
洋基的先發接二連三的狀況，使得他們得派許多並沒有在二月被列入預定名單的人先發。
現在，王建民和Moose回來了，Andy Pettitte沒有真正因傷無法上場過，
Darrell Rasner昨天投得不錯，特別是井川在週五大爆炸之後，
他的表現緩和了洋基的牛棚，也因此讓他有機會跟井川搶飯碗。
Philip Hughes會比老克要晚回來。
所以我們可以這麼說，老克將會取代井川的位置，
而Hughes回來後，也要取代Rasner的位置。

Nate Silver’s PECOTA system projects Clemens, conveniently, for 21 starts,
maybe one or two shy of what he’ll make for the Yankees. The system has
Clemens posting a 3.34 ERA in a neutral environment, worth 28.3 runs over
replacement, and 3.6 wins above replacement. None of that seems out of line;
it would make Clemens one of the ten best starters in the AL on a per-inning
basis. I can see an argument that the projection is slightly optimistic
because Clemens’ most recent work was in the NL, and he’d be pitching for
an AL East team, but remember that both PECOTA and the Translations system
are accounting for that.

Nate Silver在他的PECOTA系統預測老克可能會為洋基投21場左右(也許多或少一兩場)。
這個系統也預估老克在調整部分系數後的ERA是3.34，
會比replacement level的人高出28.3分(應該是VORP)，並且多贏3.6場。
這些數據都不離譜，也會讓老克名列美聯前10名的先發投手(以每局表現計算)。
我知道有些人會說這些數據有點樂觀，畢竟老克這回是從國聯回來的投手，
他已經在國聯待了3年了，而且他現在要面對的是美聯東區的打線。
但是別忘了，這些因素，PECOTA和轉換系統都有評估到這一點。

PECOTA projected Igawa to post a translated 4.28 ERA in 180 innings, worth
22.9 points of VORP and 4.1 WARP. However, we have additional information on
Igawa, his first 30 or so major-league innings, which indicate that those
figures are high. Igawa has allowed eight home runs in 30 2/3 innings,
leading to a 7.63 ERA. His translated ERA is 7.45, with negative VORP (-11.5)
and WARP (-0.7) totals. If you weight the projection and the performance to
date, allowing the latter to make up 1/6th of the line, you should get a more
accurate projection.

我們來看看另一個投手井川。

早先，PECOTA系統預測井川會有180局、4.28的ERA，他的VORP是22.9，WARP則是4.1。
然而經過了一個月，我們獲得了更多的資訊，顯然這些數字是高估了。
他在30又2/3局中被了8隻全壘打，獲得7.63的ERA。
經過轉換後，他的ERA是7.45，VORP則是(- 11.5)，WARP是(-0.7)。
如果你衡量他的預測和他到目前為止的實際表現，
並且考慮到他之後的表現可能會彌補前面這1/6個階段的成績，
那我們顯然要有更精準的預測。

Let’s compare the two lines: Clemens’ projection, and Igawa’s adjusted
projection for the two-thirds of the year for which he’ll be replaced:

             IP    H   BB   SO   HR    ERA   VORP   WARP
Clemens   127.2  109   39  118   12   3.34   28.3    3.6
Igawa     103.1  111   35   75   14   4.51   11.5    2.2

Is that upgrade—17 runs, a win-and-a-half—worth $26 million? That’s hard
to believe.


我們來比較這兩條線：
一個是克萊門斯(他只剩2/3個球季)的預測數據，
一個是井川被修正後、接下來2/3個球季會有的可能數據。

(數據如上)

VORP上升17分、提升了一倍半，這樣的升級值得花2600萬嗎？
從數據來看是很難相信這一點。

Now, this analysis assumes that Kei Igawa’s first 30 2/3 innings in the
major leagues are not an accurate reflection of his skill level, the same way
that we would discount one month of play for any player with a track record.
If you’re of a mind to suggest that Igawa is, in fact, a 7.00+ ERA pitcher,
then the gap between Clemens and him grows, although at that point you need
to compare Clemens to Rasner and perhaps Tyler Clippard and other options,
because Igawa wouldn’t hold a job at that performance level. It may be that
Clemens is two or three wins greater than the Yankees’ replacement options
in his absence; he also provides insurance against further health problems
suffered by the remaining starters.

基本上，分析者假設井川第一個月(30又2/3局)並沒有精準地反應他的實力，
這也是我們在看待其它選手時會有的假設。

如果你認為井川是個ERA超過7的投手，
你還是要考慮老克和"井川可能的成長"之間的差距；
雖然你目前可能只要拿老克和Rasner甚至是Tyler Clippard及其它可能的選項做比較，
因為井川並沒有拿出他可以和其它人參與競爭的表現。
老克應該會比洋基的replacement level多贏2~3場，
他也比其它的投手更能夠提供健康的保證。

The specifics of this can be debated. What can’t be debated is this: the
impact of any starting pitcher, over two-thirds of a season, is limited by
opportunity. The Yankees haven’t signed vintage Roger Clemens, or even the
version that won a Cy Young Award in 2001 while pitching them to the World
Series. This version will only make 21-23 starts. It will most likely average
six innings a start, perhaps less. It relies more on command and keeping the
ball in the park—Clemens’ translated walk and home-run rates as as Astro
were his lowest since his Blue Jay years—than on whiffing batters, as his
translated strikeout rates while in Houston were career lows.

這些事都是可以辯論的。
我們不能夠辯論的事情是：
任何一名先發投手在2/3個球季中所能有的表現，會有多少機率的限制。
洋基還不能確保老克一定能夠有所表現，
也不能確保拿到2001年賽揚獎的他能重現身手帶領他們前進世界大賽。
目前我們只能說他可以投21~23場，
而這個投手很有可能是個平均6局的投手、也許還更少。
他的表現完全依賴他的控球能力、持續把球留在場內的能力 -
老克在太空人三年、經過轉換後的保送及被全壘打率，是他離開藍鳥隊之後最低的，
但是使打者揮棒落空三振的比率(whiffing batters是揮空嗎？)、
就像他經過轉換後的三振率一樣是生涯的低點。

Adding Roger Clemens makes the Yankees a better team, and improves their
chance to catch the Red Sox in the AL East, or secure the wild card if they
can’t do so. They’re not as bad as they’ve looked in the season’s first
five weeks, and the Red Sox are probably not quite as good as they’ve
looked. (More on this later in the week.) However, the impact of Clemens is
smaller than is perceived, because of three factors:

老克的加入可以使洋基變成一個更好的球隊，增加他們追上紅襪爭奪東區冠軍的機會，
或者是保住洋基爭奪外卡的機會。
他們並不像他們前五個禮拜看起來那麼糟，
而紅襪也可能沒有他們前五個禮拜看起來那麼好。
然而，因為以下的三個因素，使得克萊門斯所造成的效果比一般人所察覺到的要小：

    * The limited number of innings he will pitch.
    * Clemens, while still effective, is nonetheless a 44-year-old with
declining power moving into a tough division.
    * Igawa likely not being as bad as the first month of his career would
indicate.


    1.他每場比賽能提供幾局。
    2.老克雖然依舊具有競爭力，但是他仍然是個44歲、威力正在下降的人，
      他要帶著這樣的身手進入一個打擊強悍的分區。
    3.井川可能不會像他第一個月所顯示的這麼糟。

Here’s the best argument for the Yankees spending $26 million on Clemens: he
was probably going to the Red Sox if they didn’t. So if you’re the Yankees,
you haven’t just made a two-win, maybe three-win, improvement; you’ve
prevented the Red Sox from doing about the same, given Clemens’ edge over
Julian Tavarez or a rehabbing Jon Lester. Taking that into consideration, and
the signing is worth four to six wins, which makes it both economically
sensible and gives it a greater potential to impact what should be a very
good race in the AL East.

但在這裡，洋基對於他們花2600萬簽下老克的事情已經有了最好的立論點：
如果他們不花這麼多錢的話，那老克就有可能加入紅襪。
所以如果你是洋基隊，你並不是只看那多贏的2場、3場或更多，
你看的是你已經防止紅襪有機會利用老克做同樣的事情，
讓老克為紅襪帶來超過Julian Tavarez、或是復健中的Jon Lester的效益。
考慮到這一點，這個約的價值就在於那多贏的4~6場，
而這多贏的4~6場無論是經濟效益上、或是感覺上，
都會讓洋基有更好的潛力去影響美聯東區的戰局。

The real winners here are the fans, who get a couple dozen more chances to
see the greatest pitcher of our lifetimes. Who says the Yankees are bad for
baseball?

在這裡，真正的贏家其實是球迷，
他們有更多的機會看到我們這個時代之中最偉大的投手。

這樣的話，是誰說洋基隊是邪惡的？ XD



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.229.19.137
推 tsuchan:推喔!
推 tulas:老史:您爸就是有錢~~~~  洋基迷:老闆有錢真好~~~
推 onlyyou2:最後第二句翻的很怪  應該是有"機會"看到最偉大投手
推 Melson:推
推 kenro:推 翻的很好! 老克的加入真的比帳面價值更高..
推 TAKANA:王者的翻譯....淚推
推 snpb:如果老克是文中所說的2號先發  那134是誰呢?
推 OLDdaughter:翻的超好的阿
推 peterwu4:如果1號代表王者，誰能稱王呢？ (好我承自己有點嗨了)
推 dnndn:推二樓XD
推 KakutougiFan:翻得真好!!
※ 編輯: richardcyl      來自: 61.229.19.137        (05/08 14:42)
推 richardcyl:其實我對我自己初步翻的東西也不是很有把握
→ richardcyl:常常第一次看完覺得不太對勁，還要再修多次
→ richardcyl:overmatch應該是"勝過"的意思，所以應該不止2號
推 bianfish:多謝好文 多謝翻譯^^
推 peterwu4:overmatched應該是形容阿宅被(棒球大環境)打倒、擊敗？
推 news2007:就是#1 WANG 了 何須謙虛到有點矯情...
推 djcc:俗啦~~~  再拿一各世界冠軍戒指  無價~~~
→ djcc:推推推
推 lubenten:我最喜歡推用心的人了
推 aniwufa:文章好翻譯也好 thx!
推 finhard:推，翻的很棒^^
推 desirecity:很用心 推一個！不過洋基還真是有錢阿....
推 conective:推～ 受益的是球迷XD
推 Gabai:感謝翻譯
推 ILLwill:好文,翻的也好
推 Tzylu:推
推 KusoPvt:世界冠軍!!無價!!