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推 ixion:FB玩很精的玩家也會看裁判的 05/29 02:23
※ [本文轉錄自 CMWang 看板]
作者: dogmoon (KGB) 看板: CMWang
標題: 國外有關MLB裁判的一篇文章分析(麻煩高人翻譯)
時間: Tue May 29 01:27:21 2007
這篇文章是在"王建民加油站"看到的 有興趣的可以進去看 但要註冊
http://www.wangfans.com/viewthread.php?tid=44264&extra=page%3D1
為了怕有廣告嫌疑 原文在這邊http://0rz.tw/e52I8
以下為全文內容:
MLB Handicapping: Umpires
by Alex Smart
There are many stats that go into handicapping baseball match-ups. Some
obvious things that many of us look at are how teams perform against
southpaws, bullpen efficiency, runner's left on base, winning and losing
streaks, home and road dichotomies. But a often ignored baseball handicapping
tool is keeping an eye on major league umpires.
Taking a closer look at the numbers of the men that officiate pro baseball is
definitely worth your time and effort and can have a positive influence on
the overall health of your summertime bankroll.
Below are some umpires that show home and road dichotomy's and an influence
on Totals propositions.
Note: Umpiring crews are not known until about one hour before the first game
of a series. But you will know in advance who will be behind the plate from
game two forward as that will be the first base umpire from the game before.
If you like a home team to win, what better umpires to have this season than
Dan Iassogna (6-0), Tim Timmons (5-0), CB Bucknor (5-0), Randy Marsh (7-1)
and Sam Holbrook (7-1)? Look out for these and other umpires that have had
home cookin’ tendencies over the past few seasons. You will be surprised at
how many units these guys can add to your bankroll, under the right
circumstances.
If your backing the road team, then you want Marvin Hudson (6-0), Brian
Gorman (5-1), Bruce Dreckman (5-1), Martin Foster (5-1) and Jeff Nelson (5-1)
with the brush in his hand. These guys are a combined 1-16 with the home team
lined as chalk.
The one area that the umpire has the greatest control over is the strike
zone. If the home plate umpire has a small strike zone this forces pitchers
to be more precise and places more pitches over the heart of the plate. This
style of umpiring can lead to more high scoring games and Overs. Conversely,
umpires that call a high number of strikes means more low scoring affairs,
favoring the under.
In short a good 'Under' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 3:1 or higher. A
good 'OVER' umpire will have a K/BB ratio of 2:1 or less.
Look out for Joe West (5-0), Jim Reynolds (5-1), James Hoye (5-1) and Bruce
Dreckman (5-1). These guys have real small strike zones and hand out free
passes to first base as though they were handing out free hot drinks from the
soup wagon to the homeless. The first three umpires named have less than a
1.9:1 K/BB ratio.
Umpires with big strike zones who contribute to lower scoring games are Doug
Eddings (5-2), Jeff Nelson (4-1) and John Hirschbeck (3-1). Clearly, these
member's of the blue brigade must have early restaurant reservations to keep.
Keep a real close eye on these three guys, as last season Eddings was 20-14,
Nelson was 20-12, and Hirschbeck was 17-7 all to the 'Under'.
The undoubted ‘Under’ king of this trio is Doug Eddings as he has a
tendency to call a very high percentage of "strikes". Eddings doesn't call a
lot of balls and an average game features 18 strikeouts for every 6 walks
(67%). He has been very consistent in that department as his strike
percentage for this season is 65%. It was 65% in 2006, 66% in 2005 and 65% in
2004. This year Eddings is allowing 8.14 runs per game contributing to his
2-5 O/U record, making him without doubt the best "Under" Umpire in all of
Major League Baseball over the last three years as the following numbers
would indicate. Eddings appearances went under in 21 of 35 outings in 2006,
20 of 30 in 2005 and 24 of 34 in 2004.
As you can see data on an umpire tendencies is information that should not be
ignored.
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國外的賭客真的很專業 連裁判都分析的一清二楚 Orz
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※ 編輯: dogmoon 來自: 125.232.150.249 (05/29 01:42)