[閒聊] Yankees could bounce back

[onlyyou2 (MLB 2006 by 989sports)]

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Look out, AL: Yankees could bounce back
By Jonah Keri
Special to Page 2
One of the topics frequently discussed in this space is the danger of judging
the performance of a player or team based on a small sample of evidence. One
at-bat doesn't make a player great, even if that at-bat results in a grand
slam that wins the World Series. One game doesn't make a team terrible, even
if the team loses 20-0.

The question then becomes, at what point should we start believing what we're
seeing? We've reached the season's quarter mark, enough time for hitters to
rack up 150 at-bats, for pitchers to pile up 50 innings. In many cases,
that's enough time to draw some conclusions: Bobby Abreu isn't
the player he once was; Jose Reyes has arrived as one of the best players in
the game; the Cardinals aren't going to repeat as World Series champions.

Those are the easy ones. But there are no hard and fast rules to tell us
exactly when to start believing in a trend. In some cases, a quarter of a
season can still leave us with misleading information. In the first edition
of Keri the 10, we looked at BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In
Play), a pitching stat that can help pinpoint fluky results among pitchers.
This week's column starts with a look at one simple metric which reveals two
teams that have played better than their records suggest.

Based on their 19-23 record, the Yankees look like one of the worst teams
in baseball. They may turn out to be one of the best.
After they dropped two of three to the Mets, the biggest stories coming
out of New York are that the Yankees supposedly have no heart; that Joe
Torre should be fired; that Jason Giambi's contract could be voided because
he kinda, sorta admitted he juiced; and that the Mets can start printing
their World Series tickets.

We'll skip the psychoanalysis, the dissertation on the role of a manager,
the thesis on contract rules and the state of the NL pennant race. But
there's no denying one thing: The Yankees have been one of the unluckiest
teams in baseball.

With 27 more runs scored than allowed (227 to 200), the Yankees' combination
of offense and run prevention points to a team that would figure to be three
or four games above .500 instead of four games under. One of the biggest
reasons for the divergence? The Yankees are just 2-8 in one-run
games, the second-worst mark in the majors.

Teams rarely fare so much worse in one-run games than they do the rest of the
time. When you see a team post such a bad record in one-run games, it's
usually the result of two factors: a lousy bullpen and bad luck. There's
no denying that the Yankees' relief corps has been lousy,
with Mariano Rivera uncharacteristically struggling, and a band of
would-be set-up men failing to do the job. But bad luck can often turn
for the better, especially over a 162-game season.

Adding Roger Clemens and Philip Hughes to the \
rotation will help a lot. Abreu, Robinson Cano and
Melky Cabrera will probably start to play better, even if they
don't get back to 2006 levels. The front office will probably make some
moves to upgrade the roster. But even if the Yankees do absolutely nothing,
it's unlikely that they'll keep scoring that many more runs than they've
allowed, yet continue to flirt with last place.

總之，洋基隊有可能再打進季後賽，如果牛棚振作起來的話。

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◆ From: 140.119.56.95
※ 編輯: onlyyou2        來自: 140.119.56.95        (05/22 10:22)
推 richard1003:如果牛棚振作,如果打線不便祕....這不是廢話Orz
推 onlyyou2:至少先發跟打線還OK.
推 a02637:噗 如果給我一個搖桿 我馬上帶洋基進季後賽 XD
→ speeddd:還要紅襪多輸幾場
推 qlz:如果棒球之神站在洋基這邊......
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推 luibu:話說...我玩MVP2007用洋基拿到世界大賽冠軍~王建民每一場比선
→ luibu:賽~我都有下去投...用搖桿滿好用~
推 hylkevin:哪來的MVP2007 最後一代只到2004 妳說的應該是MLB2K7吧
推 fk658899:樓上不知道有MVP板這種東西吧