Yankee Pitching at the All Star Break

[yyhong68 (come every now and then)]

這篇文章來自:http://www.replacementlevel.com/

Monday, July 9, 2007

Yankee Pitching at the All Star Break

I'm still mad about Saturday's game, but we must soldier on I guess.
Anyway, the All Star Break is a good time to catch up on the team's
performances to this point. I think I've been neglecting pitching this
season because of how much "fun" it's been harping on the offense and
defense, so today I'm going to look at the pitching staff so far. First,
here are the Yankees pitchers sorted by most valuable to least valuable
by runs saved above average. Read after the chart for explanations of
all the columns.

Last       RSAA  G     IP   Hit   HR   BB    K    ERA    RA   FIP   ERC  ERA+
Wang        18  15  104.3    98    6   27   48   3.36  3.36  3.98  3.53  128
Bruney       8  39     35    28    2   25   27   2.57  2.57  4.69  3.70  168
Myers        7  41     31    27    3   12   13   2.61  2.61  5.04  3.57  165
Clemens      6   7   39.7    34    4   10   29   3.63  3.63  3.87  3.00  119
Rivera       3  32     34    33    3    5   32   3.71  3.71  3.15  3.09  116
Villone      3  14   19.3    14    1    6    9   3.26  3.26  3.78  2.28  132
Pettitte     2  20  112.3   127    8   34   62   4.25  4.73  4.00  4.40  102
Hughes       2   2   10.7     7    0    4   11   3.37  3.37  2.33  1.80  128
Britton      2   3      5     1    1    1    2   1.80  1.80  5.67  0.91  240
Proctor      1  45   47.7    40    4   24   34   3.59  4.34  4.38  3.52  120
Mussina      0  14     78    83   10   17   49   4.62  4.85  4.37  4.37  93
Ramirez      0   2    2.3     2    0    1    4   3.86  3.86  2.41  5.32  112
Rasner      -1   6   24.7    29    4    8   11   4.01  5.11  5.70  5.12  108
Pavano      -1   2   11.3    12    1    2    4   4.76  5.56  4.24  3.86  91
Henn        -1  17   19.3   16     2   13   13   4.66  5.12  5.28  3.62  93
Farnsworth  -1  37   34.3   38     3   16   23   4.46  4.98  4.46  4.20  97
Bean        -2   3      3    5     0    5    2  12.00 12.00  6.93  8.16  36
Wright      -3   2      8   10     5    6    6   7.88  7.88 12.14  9.85  55
Vizcaino    -3  42     43   37     3   31   29   5.02  5.23  4.29  4.21  86
Desalvo     -3   6     23   27     2   16    6   5.87  6.26  6.35  6.30  74
Clippard    -4   6     27   29     6   17   18   6.33  6.33  6.60  5.81  68
Karstens    -5   2    4.3   11     1    2    1  14.54 14.54  7.19 10.79  30
Igawa      -13   9   46.7   52    11   23   33   7.14  7.33  6.59  5.84  60
Total       15 366 763.9   760    80  305  466   4.36  4.62  4.66  4.32  98


RSAA is runs saved above average, which I calculate by subracting the
pitcher's runs allowed average from the league average runs allowed average,
dividing by nine and then multiplying times innings pitched. Starters are
compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers, as relievers
collectively have an RA of about .5 runs less than starters.

RA is just the equivalent of ERA, but includes unearned runs.

FIP is Tango Tiger's Fielding Independent Pitching, which is calculated
using the formula 13 times HR plus 3 times BB + HBP - 2 times K divided by
IP. 3.2 is added to that to give a # that should closely match ERA. The
idea here is to regress a pitcher's batting average on balls in play to
average by focusing on his peripherals. If you see a big difference between a
 pitcher's FIP and his ERA, you should expect them to move closer to each
other if he continues to pitch the way he has to this point.

ERC is Component ERA. Kind of like FIP, it looks a player's components
to see if their results match their actual performance. The one difference
 is it uses a pitcher's actual hit rate, so it does not penalize pitchers
who do happen to have the ability to suppress hits on balls in play.

Last         LD%    GB%    FB%  BABIP HR+  BB+   K+   BF  AB   AVG   OBP   SLG
Wang       18.0%  58.7%  23.2%  .277  181  133   69  418  383  .256  .311  .366
Bruney     17.5%  29.9%  52.9%  .268  200   53  105  154  122  .230  .364  .328
Myers      15.7%  61.8%  22.1%  .238  113   93   60  131  114  .237  .313  .368
Clemens    20.7%  50.0%  29.2%  .261  103  135  110  158  147  .231  .278  .347
Rivera     16.3%  53.1%  30.6%  .309  120  238  138  139  130  .254  .288  .346
Villone    16.4%  36.1%  47.7%  .217  203  111   69   78   69  .203  .282  .261
Pettitte   18.4%  49.3%  32.3%  .321  155  120   78  476  434  .293  .340  .417
Hughes     15.4%  57.7%  26.9%  .269  inf   88  161   41   37  .189  .268  .216
Britton    14.3%  28.6%  57.1%  .000   44  146   71   17   16  .063  .118  .250
Proctor    16.0%  28.5%  56.0%  .252  134   74   99  207  174  .230  .319  .356
Mussina    20.6%  39.9%  39.5%  .295   85  164   90  326  298  .279  .316  .446
Ramirez     0.0%  66.7%  25.0%  .500  inf   86  240   10    7  .286  .400  .429
Rasner     20.0%  40.0%  40.0%  .291   72  119   59  111  100  .290  .351  .470
Pavano     17.9%  46.2%  34.9%  .282  119  197   52   46   44  .273  .304  .409
Henn       13.6%  42.4%  44.1%  .237  114   58   89   88   73  .219  .341  .343
Farnsworth 19.0%  33.6%  48.0%  .310  135   83   88  156  138  .275  .353  .384
Bean        8.3%  58.3%  33.3%  .417  inf   33   63   19   14  .357  .526  .500
Wright     14.3%  25.0%  58.7%  .217   21   57   90   40   34  .294  .400  .794
Vizcaino   20.8%  35.4%  43.4%  .259  169   54   89  195  159  .233  .354  .384
Desalvo    17.6%  37.6%  44.6%  .294  145   60   32  112   91  .297  .411  .495
Clippard    6.7%  39.3%  54.3%  .277   54   62   87  124  107  .271  .371  .505
Karstens   35.0%  25.0%  41.7%  .454   68  111   23   26   23  .478  .500  .696
Igawa      18.7%  31.0%  50.5%  .283   51   80   92  215  189  .275  .363  .519
Total      17.9%  43.6%  38.5%  .288  127  110   85  3287 2903 .269  .334  .417


LD%, GB%, and FB% are the percentage of balls in play that a pitcher allows
that end up as line drives, ground balls, or fly balls, respectively.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This looks at all balls in a play
that a pitcher gives up and what ratio they become hits. The formula used is
 (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO + SF). The AL average this season is .300 on the
nose. In theory, most pitchers should be close to that number, so most
anyone who's above or below it has a probability of regressing towards it.

HR+, BB+, and K+ are my own numbers. These are similar to Baseball
Reference's ERA+, in that they calculate a pitcher's HR allowed rate, walk
allowed rate, and strikeout rate per batters faced as a ratio compared to
league average. < 100 is below average, >100 is above average for all three.
So if you look at Chien-Ming Wang, you see he prevents HRs at a rate 81%
better than the average pitcher, walks 33% fewer, and strikes out 31% fewer.
You have to love Chase Wright's 21 HR+.

BF is batters faced. AB is at bats by opposing hitters, and AVG, OBP,
and SLG are what opposing hitters are hitting against the pitcher in
question.

So what do all these numbers really mean?

First of all, Chien-Ming Wang rocks. He's been a win better than any Yankee
pitcher despite missing a month. Yeah, he doesn't strike out a lot of people,
but last year his K+ was 51, so he's improved significantly in that area this
year. He's a master at keeping the ball in the park, and he pitches with good
control. That has worked for Wang for 439 innings at the major league level
now.

Brian Bruney's had a decent year as far as preventing runs, but his control
is awful and he appears to have fallen out of favor in the bullpen pecking
order. Bruney was released by Arizona for a reason, but he's still young
enough to put it together. I wouldn't trust him over most of the rest of
the pen right now though.

Mike Myers' has had what looks like a good year superficially, but he has
failed at his job, which is to get out lefty hitters. Lefties are hitting
 .327/.410/.462, following up a line of .257/.297/.443 last year. Expect
more of the same going forward. From what I can see, he's lost what little
velocity he had and his slider is not as tough to hit as it used to be.

It's both a credit to Roger Clemens and an indictment of the rest of the
team that he's been their fourth most valuable pitcher despite only
starting six games. He's not throwing as hard as he used to, but he's
succeeding. His K rate is still better than league average, and he's
combining that with above average control and a good HR rate. He can
probably pitch until he's 50.

Mariano Rivera's ERA is way out of line from what we are used to seeing,
but he's been good recently. Over his last 24 games, he's pitched 27.1
innings and fanned 24 with a more Mo-like 1.65 ERA. He still doesn't look
like MO to me, but he should be good going forward. His FIP and his
component ERA both point to that as well. Interestingly, Rivera's already
given up as many earned runs this year as he gave up in five full seasons
in the past.

Everyone wants to dump Ron Villone, but he's been good at his role,
pitching good baseball in low leverage spots. I don't see a pressing need
to get rid of him. I'd probably lose Myers before Villone.

Andy Pettitte has been brutal his last few starts, but you could argue that
it should have been seen coming. He had a 2.51 ERA after his first 11 starts,
but 23 BB and just 38 strikeouts, and having allowed 70 hits in 71 innings.
Since then, he's got a putrid 7.30 ERA. For the first half overall, he's been
a hair above average, and he's eaten innings for the team and helped rest
the pen for the majority of his starts. He's right around where he was
projected to be overall, even though he took a circuitous rout to get there.
Let's hope he's just in a rut and not hurting.

Phil Hughes pitched twice. We hope to see him back by the end of the month.
He makes his first rehab start today I think.

Chris Britton has done nothing in the majors or Scranton to warrant still
being in Scranton.

Scott Proctor's been up and down. It looks like he's made an adjustment
recently, using his slow curve to freeze hitters looking for his fastball,
and so far it's working. As a durable reliever who can give the team average
or better innings, he's a useful piece.

Mike Mussina started out crappy. He still doesn't look great stuff wise,
but he's been getting results. Over his last six starts he's got a 2.87 ERA,
over his last eight it's 3.49. Take out his first start of the year and he's
got an ERA of 4.14. I was hoping for a repeat of 2006, but it looks more
that we will see the 2004-2005 version of Moose, who is useful if not great.
Moose's FIP and ERC seem to agree that he'll be ok going forward, but not
great.

Edwar Ramirez is the last of the Yankee pitchers who has not been below
average. He should get a few chances to show if he can handle the majors
yet. He's a great story so I'll be pulling for him.

I won't go through everyone else on the list, but I'll touch on a few
of 'em.

Pavano. Heh.

I have nothing good to say about Kyle Farnsworth. I'd love to see the
Yankees dump him somewhere, for anything they could get.

Luis Vizcaino has been the best part of the Randy Johnson trade, which
tells you how well that whole thing worked out. In his defense, he's pitched
better of late although he's still got mediocre peripherals. Did you know
Vizcaino already has 11 IBB this year? That really skews his numbers.

Kei Igawa. I expected a 5.00 ERA with hopes of a 4.00, and instead I've
gotten a 7.14 ERA with hopes that he doesn't pitch any more. Igawa's
K rate is passable, but his control has been poor, and his HR rate is off
the charts bad. The league is hitting .275/.363/.519 against him. Eeesh.

Overall, the Yankee pitching staff has actually been a touch above
average (15 RSAA overall). That's because even with a slightly below
average ERA, they have allowed fewer unearned runs than average so fewer
overall. Their team RA is 4.66 compared to the AL average of 4.80. That's
the fairly good news. The bad news is that as a team they have the worst K
rate in the league, with a K+ of 85.

I'll look at either the offense or defense tomorrow.

Update: A couple of links some of you may have interest in. Over at the
Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe looks at a simulation of the 28 worst teams
of all time. I helped Chris run these. No, the 2007 Yankees are not on
the list, yet.

Also, Top Prospect Alert has posted their Top 100 prospects at midseason.
Hughes is still considered a prospect, and they have him as #2 behind
Justin Upton. Six Yankees make the grade, although one name is a bit
surprising.

--Posted at 8:34 am by SG

From: http://www.replacementlevel.com/

--
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◆ From: 140.109.23.211
※ 編輯: yyhong68        來自: 140.109.23.211       (07/10 18:16)
推 kevinloo:Pavano. Heh. lol
推 newnewnew1:vano. Heh. lol
推 deathcustom:ano. Heh. lol
推 crayon1988:vano. Heh. lol
推 tupacshkur:vano. Heh. lol
推 DK2s:    Pavano. Heh. lol
推 tonylin: Pavano. Heh. lol            佩佩好苦....:<
推 kaka66:  Pavano. Heh. lol
推 Romulus:No, the 2007 Yankees are not on the list, "YET" orz
推 opie: Heh.是什麼阿?
推 vnra:Hr,ha,ho
推 vvvbbb:  Pavano. Heh. lol
推 economist: Igawa -13 lol
推 lwei781:Proctor 4th in IP.... XD
推 ElDuque:Britton那什麼ERA+......XD