推 tulas:這篇讀到後面好歡樂,參考就好 XD &有提到肩膀可能會受傷orz 08/01 17:37
→ leddy:球探似乎擔心他的mechanics, 會影響他的耐用程度 08/01 17:38
推 HidekiMatsui:推 這一篇超讓人期待 鎖定明年新人王 08/01 18:30
推 leddy:照這輪值下去Hughes明年沒有ROY資格 08/01 18:39
The rise of Philip Hughes
by John Beamer
July 30, 2007
source from http://0rz.tw/7d2S3
The Yankees' farm system is a bit like public transport in a heaving
metropolis: you wait an age for a bus and then three pitch up at once. Until
recently, talking about the Yankees' farm conjured up images of a decrepit
cattle ranch in bone-dry mid-Texas manned by aging cowboys tending some
malnourished bovine life forms.
Well, no longer. Suddenly the Yankees' system is starting to resemble a
Kentucky stud farm having produced a couple of above-average prospects in the
guise of Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera over the last couple of years, while
also nurturing perhaps the hottest prospect in baseball today: 21-year-old
flamer Philip Hughes.
Phil Hughes was called up to the Yankees to start against the Blue Jays on
April 26. He did not play particularly well, giving up four runs in 4 1/3
innings. In his second start a few days later he was magical and on track for
a no-hitter before being pulled in the seventh after suffering a hamstring
injury. He hasn't played for the Yankees since but in recent weeks has made a
few minor league rehab starts and is presently expecting another big league
call-up.
So, how does a young Phil Hughes compare to some of the other great pitchers
in recent times? Before we answer let's get properly acquainted.
Meet Philip Hughes
Hughes was born on June 24, 1986 in California and it was there he grew up
and went to school. He was a born thrower from day one hurling a perfect game
as a High School All-American pitcher, going 12-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his
junior year and 9-1 with a 0.69 ERA in his senior year. He was drafted in the
first round (23rd overall) of the 2004 draft by the Yankees and on his
current trajectory should be pick of the class.
He's technology savvy and even has his own website, which although stylish
currently lacks a bit of substance—not something that can be said about its
proprietor! (his web site: http://www.philiphuges.net/)
Since becoming part of the Yankees organization in 2004, Hughes has
demonstrated a rare trifecta of pitching talent: control, power and youth—
okay, youth isn't a skill but is an important determinant of future success.
Check out his numbers since draft day (ignoring this year as he has mostly
been injured):
Year Level Team Age W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9
2004 Rk GCL Yanks 18 0 0 0 5 14.4 0.0
2005 A Charlst-sc 19 7 1 1.97 68.2 9.5 2.1
2005 A+ Tampa 19 2 0 3.06 17.2 11.0 2.1
2006 A+ Tampa 20 2 3 1.8 30 9.0 0.6
2006 AA Trenton 20 10 3 2.25 116 10.7 2.5
At all levels of the game he has impressed. He strikes out a ton of hitters
while still being stingy with walks. Moreover as he has shot up the various
leagues his stats haven't degraded, which bodes well as he embarks on what
should be a fruitful big league career. Add in the fact that he has just
turned 21 and it isn't difficult to conjure up comparisons with other star
phenoms.
Pitching comparisons
Take a look at how those numbers compare to other historically good 19-, 20-
and 21-year-olds playing at a similar level. I could have picked many
pitchers but I went for a combination of established power-fuelled superstars
(Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Mark Prior) and some upcoming phenoms (Scott
Kazmir, Francisco Liriano)
A AND A+ LEVELS
Player Year Lg Age Level ERA IP BB9 K9 WHIP
Hughes 2005 SAL 19 A 1.97 68.2 2.1 9.44 0.9
Hughes 2005 FSL 19 A+ 3.06 17.2 2.04 10.7 0.68
Hughes 2006 FSL 20 A+ 1.8 30 0.6 9 0.7
Liriano 2002 SAL 18 A 3.49 80 3.49 9.56 1.15
Liriano 2004 FSL 20 A+ 4 117 3.31 9.62 1.38
Kazmir 2003 SAL 19 A 2.36 76.1 3.3 12.38 1.02
Kazmir 2003 FSL 19 A+ 3.27 33 4.36 10.91 1.36
Kazmir 2004 FSL 20 A+ 3.42 50 3.96 9.18 1.42
Santana 1999 Midw 20 A 4.66 160.1 3.09 8.42 1.35
Martinez 1991 Calif 19 A+ 2.05 61.1 2.79 12.18 0.98
AA LEVELS
Player Year Lg Age Level ERA IP BB9 K9 WHIP
Hughes 2006 East 20 AA 2.25 116 2.48 10.71 0.91
Prior 2002 Sou 21 AA 2.6 34.2 2.6 14.28 1.04
Liriano 2004 East 20 AA 3.18 39.2 3.86 11.12 1.56
Liriano 2005 East 21 AA 3.64 76.2 3.05 10.8 1.25
Kazmir 2004 East 20 AA 1.73 26 3.12 10.04 0.96
Kazmir 2004 Sou 20 AA 1.44 25 3.96 8.64 1
Martinez 1991 Tex 19 AA 1.76 76.2 3.64 8.69 1.15
At A and A+ Hughes held his own against the best of them, showing an awesome
combination of power and control as well as remarkable consistency. In fact,
all our star hurlers had a K/9 rate around 10. Only Kazmir's A season in 2003
and Pedro's A+ season in 1991 were significantly better. Looking at walk
rates and WHIP we can see that Hughes is definitely a top-quartile performer.
The most dominant hurler in today's game, Johan Santana, had a BB/9 of 3.09,
a K/9 of 8.4 and a WHIP of 1.35 during his A-ball foray—all marks that
Hughes easily bested.
What about AA?
Well, Hughes' stats stack up even better there compared to his peers. In 2006
while pitching for Trenton in the Eastern League Hughes' peripherals included
a K/9 of 10.7, a BB/9 of 2.5 and a WHIP of 0.9. Out of his contemporaries
Hughes had the best BB/9 and WHIP; only Prior's K/9 of 14.28 was
significantly better. The other thing to note is that Hughes is, if anything,
on the younger side compared to the other pitcher seasons we are looking at.
No wonder the whole baseball community is excited about Phil Hughes. It begs
the question: how did he slip down to 21st draft pick? Almost every team
missed him, some twice (Minnesota, I'm looking at you).
Pitch repertoire
Hughes' ace-like projections are based solely off of one pitch: an
uber-strong fastball, typically a four-seamer but also with some two-seam
stuff mixed in. It tops out at 96 mph and regularly sits in the 91-95 mph
zone. Combine that with plus command and you have a top-draw strike out
pitch. Let's define plus command. Simply put, he can place the ball exactly
where he wants when he wants while hurling 95 mph gas. This command and power
combination will sit at the cornerstone of Hughes’ success or failure for
years to come. If he becomes a Hall-of-Fame caliber pitcher it will be
because of this, likewise if he sinks to obscurity. He launches the fastball
around 60-70% of the time.
Hughes has a plus 12-6/1-7 curveball that supplements his fastball; he throws
the curve 20-30% of the time. Incredibly when he was drafted Hughes didn’t
have a curveball but Yankees minor league pitching coach, Nardi Contreras,
made him swap his slider for a curve largely to reduce pressure on the arm
that the slider imparts. You’d have thought it would have taken a while for
Hughes to master the pitch wouldn’t you? No. Within a few months, and after
a bit of help from Mike Mussina, Hughes had one of the finest curves in the
minors. This ability to quickly learn new pitches is also why many suspect he
’ll age well. What he’ll lose in velocity he should more than make up for
in guile. Oh, and did I mentioned he has Zito-esque control of the pitch.
Want it above the zone? Or prefer it in the dirt? Or want him to pain the
top-left corner? Nine times out of 10, Hughes will hit the spot.
Obviously he still has his slider although he doesn’t use it all that much,
if at all. He’ll probably keep it in his back pocket and throw it on the odd
occasion when a hitter may have worked out his combinations.
The only pitch he hasn’t yet mastered is the change-up. The speed/change
combo is one of the most devastating in baseball. Santana has got it down to
a tee and it sat at the heart of Pedro’s historic seasons in the late 1990s.
If Hughes wants to become a top draw pitcher he’ll need to acquire it. He
can throw it but struggles to locate it properly and as such tends to launch
his curve when in trouble, which can hang and get launched into the seats.
That’s one of the reasons why the Yankees were reluctant to push him into
their rotation this year: they were keen for him to develop the change into a
plus pitch while serving time in AAA.
Let me repeat: This combination of power and command has the potential to
underpin a Hall-of-Fame career. Many pitchers have the command; many pitchers
have the power. But Hughes has both, and he is just 21 years old. If, and
this is a big if for young pitchers, he can stay healthy, he should be
established in the rotation by 2008 and the staff ace by 2009.
Thoughts on mechanics
Never seen Hughes pitch? If not, I urge you to have a look at the following
clips:
Clip 1: This is the condensed game from mlb.com, where Hughes throws a
no-hitter until he is pulled in the seventh inning against Texas. (You'll
need to click on condensed game and have an mlb.com subscription to watch the
video.) (Clip 1: http://0rz.tw/0d2Ti )
Clip 2: Hughes at the 2006 Futures game held at PNC Park in Pittsburgh just
before the All-Star game. (Clip 2: http://0rz.tw/602St )
Now I’m not a professional scout but those in the know are seriously
impressed with Philip's mechanics and arm action. Kevin Goldstein, of
Baseball Prospectus, called it flawless, and here is what a scout friend of
mine said:
“His action is raw but hugely impressive. He generates power through body
torque, rotation and strength rather than putting huge strain on his elbow.
If you were going to teach a Little Leaguer how to gun a fastball then Phil
Hughes is a great role model .”
Compare this to the so-called worst arm action in the world which THT’s
pitching whiz, Carlos Gomez, bestowed on the unfortunate Mark Redman a few
months ago. Note how all the flaws that Carlos points out in Redman's action—
lack of rotation, tailing off at the end—don't apply to Phil's action.
I asked Carlos what he thought about Philip Hughes' mechanics. He said,
"His tempo is nice and quick. Not the quickest guy, but still in the "power
pitcher range." From top of knee lift to release, he gets his body moving
forward
quickly. Arm action is nice and short. He keeps his elbow at least slightly
bent on the way back. His "scap load" isn't excellent but it's good enough. I
would probably give him an A-/B+ in arm action.
He keeps his posture pretty well into an efficient, pretty classic 3/4 arm
slot. He doesn't tilt his head much to make room for his arm. Arm slot and
posture is
something I think is pretty natural, but for control purposes, it helps if a
pitcher doesn't tilt his head to make room for his arm. His follow through
tells me that he's put good effort into the pitch and his arm follows a nice
path as he decelerates.
The "not so good." While at first it looks like he firms up the front side
pretty well, I slowed it down and saw that it seems like he opens up a little
too early. I think he pulls his front shoulder out of the way, which leads
to.....Let me explain, as soon as I saw that, I said "shoulder injury" in my
head. I knew nothing about Hughes injury troubles, but after I saw that, I
Googled "Phil Hughes shoulder injury," and well there ya go. I think I would
worry about his durability. Unless he gets that front shoulder under control,
I think shoulder injuries will haunt him throughout his career.
His stuff is NASTY though, holy crap."
Incidentally Carloz wrote this before Hughes' major league debut—talk about
prescient. Following this exchange Carlos wrote a column on Phil, which you
can find here (http://0rz.tw/0b2TC ) with a follow-up here.
(http://0rz.tw/d72Th )
The future
Everything we've seen from Hughes in the past suggests we are looking at a
future ace. So, what do the three-year THT projections say?
Year Age IP K/9 BB/9 WHIP ERA
2007 21 134 8.6 2.8 1.4 4.06
2008 22 139 8.4 2.7 1.3 3.99
2009 23 144 8.2 2.6 1.3 3.91
Bear in mind that the 2007 numbers are shot because of his recent injury, but
let's ignore that for a minute. Looking at the A/A+/AA comps these forecasts
look a touch conservative. Saying that, ZiPS and CHONE, the only other two
systems to look at Hughes, both expect him to be worse across the board. Look
for these numbers to be the floor of his performance; there is a ton of
upside here.
There is one concern surrounding Hughes, and that is health. This is
especially pertinent given that he has been out for half the season with
hamstring issues. Ill health has blighted many a young hurler's career.
Liriano, for instance, could have trotted off with the AL Cy Young last year
had he not busted his elbow. Also given that Hughes is most often compared to
Mark Prior then health is most certainly a question mark. Aside from the
hamstring, he has had minor shoulder and elbow complaints over the last two
years. While these are nothing to be too concerned about over the long term,
they imply that he doesn't have rubber arms and legs and this lack of
apparent durability at such an early stage in his career is concerning.
Final thoughts
If he stays healthy, Phil will anchor the Yankees rotation for the next 15
years. He is the best (and almost only) pitching prospect to emerge from the
Yankees farm since Mariano Rivera. Rivera is going to the Hall of Fame.
Hughes has a golden opportunity to follow him.
Shush. Don't tell anyone but if the Yankees line-up stays the way it is he
could even win 300 games.
References and Resources
All minor league stats came from the Baseball Cube. Thanks to everyone (too
many people to mention) who have posted scouting reports on Hughes that I
have been able to rely on.
John is an unashamed glory supporter having followed the Atlanta Braves since
1991. He blogs the Braves at Chop-n-Change. He welcomes comments, criticisms
and suggestions via e-mail
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