[新聞] Mussina's the Safer, Yet Less Exciting, Bet

[leddy (耿秋)]

Mussina's the Safer, Yet Less Exciting, Bet
By STEVEN GOLDMAN
September 20, 2007

重點: Moose or others? 有經驗好還是年輕人比較好?

1. 有一部老的華納的卡通名為"Show Biz Bugs," 片中邦尼兔和達飛鴨兩個都是雜耍的
   演員，片中兩人都賣力超越對方。達飛鴨最後把自己炸掉而贏得歡眾歡呼。邦尼兔則
   懇求他來個安可，邦尼說:"太棒了! 達飛鴨! 觀眾愛死這個演出了。他們要多看幾
   次。"當達飛鴨的靈魂飛上天堂時，他向上帝懺悔式地回答說: "我知道，我知道，但
   我只能表演一次而已。"

2. 洋基目前所追求的就是這個被我們稱作達飛鴨的困境: 球員呈現的好表現大都只有
   一次或次數不多, 沒法證明這好表現可以維持下去或一再的出現。若有一個打者在大
   聯盟的第一個打數把球轟出場外, 但我們沒有辦法假定他就可以在第二，第三，第四
   個打數同樣又可以把球轟出去。取而代之的，我們會給點時間看看他在下十次的打數
   打得怎麼樣－而且如果我們夠聰明的話，我們應該看看他後面一百個打數打得如何－
   在我們下結論說他會是下一個A-Rod前應該這麼做才是正確的。洋基現在就處在這種
   給點時間看看決定球員的狀況，設法弄清楚三個年輕投手Joba Chamberlain, Phil
　 Hughes和Ian Kennedy在季後賽會有什麼樣的表現。但是現在的情況是洋基卻相信他
   們要擔心的只有Hughes和Kennedy兩人。洋基在季後賽需要幾個先發投手，要看洋基最
　 後在美聯季後第一輪分區系列賽中要打8天或7天的賽程（如果洋基最後打出美聯球隊
   最佳的成績，就可以自己選擇）。如果第一輪要打滿5場才決定勝負的話，8天或7天的
   賽程將決定洋基需要三位或四位先發投手(當然如果洋基是打較長的8天賽程的話，他
   們也可以選擇用4位先發投手)。除了發生受傷的情況以外，Andy Pettitte和王建民
   會在四位先發投手中占兩席的位子，火箭人老克上週對上紅襪虎虎生風的先發平息
   了洋基對他手傷的恐懼，他手肘的傷還沒有到達讓他棒球生涯結束的程度。

3. 那4位先發還剩下一個空缺，Mussina在週二晚上對金鶯時投出一場好投之後，幾乎可
   以確定將是填補這個空缺的人選。選定他的理由則是因為兩個自相矛盾的看法。第一
   是最近一次先發的(好)表現應該比他之前五次先發(不好)的內容為重要－他9月12日對
   上藍鳥隊時"成功"的好投應該是只是球打進場內卻很幸運地沒造成大麻煩，而不是當
   日他的投球壓制了藍鳥的打線。第二則是他生涯的紀錄應該比他今年不穩定的表現更
   有意義。但請記得，即使在8月16日他開始表現像Steve Trout那麼糟前，他的自責失
   分率是4.50, 或正好就是聯盟投手平均的水準，被打擊的成績是0.294的打擊率/0.333
   的上壘率/0.455的長打率。可以說一個平均水準的打者碰上Mussina, 都可以變身成為
   Jeff Francoeur。

4. 所有的球隊都傾向在季後賽選擇有經驗的投手，這理論是經驗將讓他們能夠克服沈重
　 的壓力能夠站上季後賽這全國注目的舞台之上。但實際上，季後第一輪分區系列賽移
   到公共電視台轉播，這些系列賽收視不見得有那麼的高，我們是說這全國注目的舞台
   可能是相當的小。撇開這個不談，各個球隊也害怕年輕的球員無法處理季後賽這麼大
   的場面發生的各種狀況。

5. 這當然是個沒有事實根據的論點(別再相信拔到....)。沒有證據顯示年輕的投手無法
   應付季後賽的情況。從現今季後賽開始超過104年的時間內，有很多的例子是年輕的投
   手在十月變身成為明星選手的表現。從1942年世界大賽系列賽，紅雀隊的菜鳥投手
   Johnny Beazley就兩度擊敗過洋基隊, 到1981年世界大賽系列賽20歲的Fernand
   Valenzuela同樣打敗了洋基隊。每個球員都是不同的個體，對於壓力會有不同的反應。
   的確有些年輕的投手的確受不了壓力而崩潰，但有經驗的投手當然有可能也會有同樣
   結果。其他的或許則是不習慣在聚光燈的照射下，會因很尋常的理由而投不好－他們
   會找不到曲球的球感，或是不該對一些打者吊了一個滑球，或是投球受到球場順逆風
   的影響(不會生牽拖厝邊，睡不好嫌床歪)，或是其他亂七八糟的理由。

6. 雖然是這樣，年輕選手總是會承擔一些污名，這總是讓洋基寧願選擇一個二流但有經
   驗的投手而不是大有希望的年輕投手。Ian Kennedy在他三次的先發裡投得非常好, 當
   然是比Mussina大部份投出的結果要好。是的, 這裡存在著達飛鴨困境的一個要素:
   Kennedy只投了19局，這麼小的樣本是不足以信賴的。但比起Kennedy, 張伯倫只有投
   了18局，卻足以讓他贏得擔任關鍵的角色，成為Mariano Rivera上場前守住後段局數
   的重要橋梁。他難道不會在關鍵時刻崩潰，那18局的投球就可以證明他就不會剛好演
   出無法再來一次的達飛鴨的把戲? 他一局所造成的傷害就可能和Kennedy所造成的傷
   害一樣的多。當然，張伯倫可以投出每小時100 miles的球速, 但不能改變任何的可能
   性。投得夠猛無法保證他就不會犯(一般人認為)年輕人個性上的毛病。

7. 這絕不是在說選Moose是個錯誤的決定。他週二的投球表現棒極了，具有比他一個月前
   更好的球速。在球季結束前他至少還有一次先發的機會, 假如他可以再一次投出這麼好
　 的球路威力，洋基隊的先發投手教練群將會有多到不知道怎麼選的窘境，因為他們面
   前的先發投手個個都是好貨。但是沒必要太快去決定，萬一洋基選壞了然後用他們自己
   選擇上到季後賽的舞台去作驚險的演出，洋基隊將只有一次演出的機會－那就是輸掉第
   一輪的季後賽。


There's an old Warner Bros. cartoon, "Show Biz Bugs," in which Bugs and Daffy
Duck are vaudevillians trying to outdo each other. Daffy finally wins the
audience's affection by blowing himself up. Bugs implores him to do an
encore. "That's terrific, Daffy! They loved it. They want more."

"I know, I know," Daffy testily replies as his ghost ascends to Heaven, "but
I can only do it once."

The Yankees are currently exploring what we might call Daffy's Dilemma: the
chance that any performance seen only once or a few times can't be sustained
or repeated. Several hitters have hit the ball out of the park in their first
major league at bat. But we don't assume that he will also hit it out in his
second, third, and fourth at bats. Instead, we wait and see what he does in
his next 10 — and if we're smart, his next 100 — before concluding that
he's the new A-Rod. The Yankees are in the same wait-and-see position with
three of their young pitchers, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian
Kennedy. But chances are that the team believes it only has to worry about
the latter two. Depending on whether the Yankees end up playing the seven-day
or eight-day American League Divisional Series schedule — the team that
finishes with the best overall record in the AL will decide — the Yankees
will need three or four starters if the series goes the full five games (and
they could elect to use four even if they play the longer series). Barring
injury, Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang are a lock for two of the four
slots. Roger Clemens's gusty start against Boston last weekend allayed fears
that his elbow would not be up to the task of finishing this one last coda to
his career.

That leaves one spot open. After Tuesday night's strong outing against the
Orioles, Mike Mussina will almost certainly be chosen to fill it. The
argument for him will be based on two contradictory notions. The first is
that his most recent start should count more than his previous five
appearances — his "successful" start at Toronto on September 12 being more
an example of good luck on balls in play than pitching dominance. The second
is that his career record means more than this year's inconsistent
performance. Remember, even before Mussina began his Steve Trout phase on
August 16, his ERA for the season was 4.50, or exactly league average, and
opponents were hitting .294 AVG /.333 OBA /.455 SLG against him, which is to
say that against Mussina, the average hitter turned into something like Jeff
Francoeur.

All teams gravitate toward veteran pitchers at playoff time, on the theory
that their experience will allow them to transcend the immense pressure of
being on the national stage. Actually, with the division series moving to TBS
and the lower ratings expectations for these series, we're talking about a
very small fraction of the national stage. But putting that aside, they fear
the youngsters can't handle the big hoedown.

This is, of course, a myth. There is no evidence that younger pitchers can't
handle the postseason. Over the 104 years since the modern postseason began,
there are many examples of young pitchers turning in star performances in
October, from Cardinals rookie Johnny Beazley beating the Yankees twice in
the 1942 World Series, to 20-year-old Fernando Valenzuela beating them in the
1981 World Series. Every player is an individual and reacts to stress
differently. No doubt some young pitchers have folded under the pressure —
 but it's certain that many veterans have too. Others, perhaps, shrugged off
the heat of the spotlight, but failed to pitch well for the usual reasons —
they didn't have the feel of their curveball, or they hung a slider to the
wrong hitter, or the wind was blowing out, or any of dozens of other reasons.

Despite this, the onus is always on the youngster, and this may lead the
Yankees to start a mediocre veteran over a promising youngster. Ian Kennedy
has pitched very well in his three starts, certainly better than Mussina has
pitched in most of his. Yes, there is an element of Daffy's Dilemma here:
Kennedy has thrown just 19 innings, and that small a sample is not to be
trusted. Compared to Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain has thrown only 18 innings,
but those were enough to earn him the crucial role of late-inning bridge to
Mariano Rivera. Should he fold in the crunch, should those 18 innings prove
to be an unrepeatable Daffy trick, he can do as much damage in one inning as
a Kennedy could do in five. Sure, Chamberlain throws 100 miles an hour, but
that doesn't change anything. Throwing hard is no protection from the
character flaw of being young.

None of this is to say that the Moose is the wrong choice. On Tuesday he
looked terrific, with better velocity than he had shown a month before. He'll
get one more start before the season ends, and if he shows such good stuff
again, the Yankees will have an embarrassment of riches in the pitching
department, with no bad choices before them. But there should be no rush to
judgment, lest the Yankees choose poorly and execute a stunt of their own
that can only be done once — losing in the first round of the playoffs.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author
of "Forging Genius," a biography of Casey Stengel.


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.132.198.21
推 lia910229:Moose加油 今年要在洋基拿到來之後的第一個冠軍
推 sylviehsiang:喬巴一小時可以投一百mile 兩小時就可以投出兩百mile
推 hou524:我有問題 先發25人名單確定後 進季後賽是不是不能在更改??
→ hou524:如果進季後賽後有人受傷進DL 可以再換人嗎
→ hou524:還是說就直接以24人繼續比下去   謝謝回答
推 siriusu:感謝翻譯
推 jagdzaku:要講紅雀怎能忘了Rick Ankiel?這不但爆很慘還毀掉呢?總覺
→ jagdzaku:得他的5.6沒什麼說服力.要舉例總是會有特例,有統計數據比
→ jagdzaku:較能說服人
推 iambiaggi:每個系列都可以再重新挑選25人名單
推 siliver:與其說是洋基主動想要相信,不如說是沒得選了而被迫相信...
→ siliver:在現在這種狀況下洋基實在沒多少可選擇了,但換個狀況想,
→ siliver:其他隊多少都有類似的狀況不是嗎??
推 orangecats:我看過這部卡通...(小聲說)
推 lostsoul:這篇文章寫得真好..翻得也很好^^
推 windsor:推
推 papac:應該是指時速100mi吧～  100 miles an hour
※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 220.132.198.21       (09/21 10:03)
推 PHILOSOMA:感謝翻譯～
推 brabo:感謝翻譯~翻得真好
推 rupcj:push
推 rayven:推翻譯，但這篇文沒什麼內容
推 DAVIDCHIEN:推
推 dotZu:push