[新聞] Debunking the biggest myths of MLB's wild-card era

[leddy (耿秋)]

Debunking the biggest myths of MLB's wild-card era
Tom Verducii
Posted: Tuesday September 25, 2007 11:27AM; Updated: Tuesday September 25,
2007 2:29PM

重點: 拆穿外卡制度採用以來四個季後賽最大的迷思

1. 當然, 採用外卡的制度後讓許多的城市有更多希望拿到季後賽的資格。但是如果外卡
   也是那麼棒的同樣取得了季後賽的資格, 那為什麼在球季的最後一週洋基和紅襪仍然
   這麼努力地"爭戰"為了取得分區第一的位置? 大聯盟為兩個聯盟各增加了一個外卡的
   資格, 讓球隊除了爭取分區冠軍之外還有第二個取得季後賽資格的機會, 這也讓季後
   分區的競賽更饒富趣味。洋基的總教練Joe Torre說: " 我是不認為以外卡的身份進到
   季後賽會有很多不利的條件, 反而外卡在贏得分區競賽占了點優勢。"球隊已經知道最
   終以分區第二的外卡資格進入季後賽, 或是以分區第一取得季後賽資格, 兩者其實沒
   什麼不同。外卡的球隊在季後系列賽的成績是26勝20敗, 同時過去五年與分區冠軍的
   球隊(4隊進到世界大賽, 2次世界冠軍)比較, 外卡的球反而更有機會打到世界大賽
   (6隊)也取得較多的世界大賽的冠軍(3次)。

2. 但既然每個人似乎都知道最終以外卡及分區第一進到季後賽, 兩者得到冠軍的機會
   差異不大, 為什麼其他跟季後賽相關的不實的謠言仍然傳得這麼厲害? 本週你將會聽
   到很多關於"狀況好得火燙的球隊"、"主場優勢"及"正規系列賽勝敗"的重要性。九月
   打得有點糟的紅襪和大都會隊季後賽是不是會遇到麻煩? 本週最後取得聯盟最佳紀錄
   的球隊是不是就擁有了主場的優勢? 印地安人本季系列賽以0比6敗給洋基, 是不是就
   會特別怕洋基? 聊來聊去都是這些幾乎沒什麼價值的殘羹剩菜，卻在收音機和假日的
   報紙欄中沒意義地占了一些時間及篇幅。直接把紀錄拿出來看，採用外卡制度以來四
   個主要流傳的迷思將一一被拆穿:

‧紀錄最好的球隊優勢最大

      這根本是胡址。這句話唯一的事實是可以在大聯盟收益的分配上拿到比較多。但是
  目前大聯盟球隊間的差距和過去已經不同了。想像中最佳戰蹟的球隊跟排名第15的球隊
  比起八年前實力的差距其實相當的窄小。你要證明? 從1995年到1999年間, 拿到最佳戰
  蹟的球隊在季後系列賽的勝率是52.5% (21勝19敗, 這是八年前)。但從2000年以後最佳
  戰蹟的球隊勝率就變成36.2%(17勝30敗)。基本上，戰績最佳的球隊輸了也不是什麼爆
  冷門的事情。

‧狀況"好得火燙"的球隊－季賽最後階段打得很好的球隊，會是最恐怖的球隊。
　　
　　　喂? 有人看到去年的情況嗎? 聖路易紅雀隊(12勝17敗)和底特律老虎隊(12勝16敗)
  去年九月都打得糟透了，但是這兩隻球隊最後都打到了世界大賽。那不要只說去年好了
  。採用外卡制度以後24支進到世界大賽的球隊，其中有14隊--明顯的是大部份--九月一
  日以後的勝率是比全年比賽的勝率還要差。紅雀和老虎隊在這12年中進到世界大賽的球
　隊中，九月的勝率才只排名倒數第六和第七(還有勝率更差的)。
　　　
‧季中系列賽贏過對手的球隊比較有優勢

　　　不是這樣，下次還有人要把季賽的成績應用到季後賽一對一的競賽中，就叫他們省
  省口舌。這是沒有關係的。過去兩年季中系列賽贏過對手的球隊，在季後遇到相同對手
  時的成績是3勝9敗。我是不是聽到有人嘀咕這是"小樣本"? 好吧，再看看外卡制度以來
  分區系列賽和聯盟冠軍系列賽的成績。季中贏得系列賽的球隊季後再度相逢的成績是
  33勝36敗，包括從2001年以來是12勝21敗(排除有三次系列賽的遭遇兩隊季中打成平手)
  。所以別怕洋基隊，印地安人的球迷。十月事實上是一個全新的球季，前面的戰蹟參考
  意義不大。

‧取得主場優勢對球隊是重要的

      不，也不是這樣。外卡制度以來，主場球隊的戰蹟是208勝182敗，勝率是0.533。
　這390場勝負的結果，跟拿銅板丟390次得出的結果差異不大。整體而言，每年所有的
  主場球隊只比客場球隊多了一勝(這麼這麼多球隊所以還是五五波)。但是，喂，如果
　季後系列賽打了很多場才決定勝負，你會希望最後一戰可以在主場比賽，對吧? 這種
　想法根本無關緊要。79%的分區系列賽和聯盟冠軍系列賽都沒有打到最後一場才決定
  勝負(72個系列賽有57次打不到最後一場)。而那15次打到最後一場決定勝負的系列賽,
  主場球隊是5勝10敗。現在，只有世界大賽第七戰在主場比賽比較有意義: 從1979年以
　後世界大賽第七戰主場球隊的戰蹟是8勝0敗。但是世界大賽主場的安排不是取決於戰
  蹟，而是用明星賽的結果來決定。

3. 基本的意義是: 確定獲得季後賽資格的球隊就別衝得那麼快想要得到更好的戰蹟吧！還
   是讓你的球員好好休息，特別是投手。無論你想相信季後存在那些優勢的迷思，實際
   上季後賽就像Billy Beane說的其實跟丟骰子得出的結果差不多，各種優勢的迷思都不
   是事實。

Sure, the wild-card system works at keeping pennant hopes alive in more
cities. But if it's so great, why do we get the Yankees and Red Sox in the
last week of the season in a "battle" for first place in which neither team
will play very hard to win the division? Baseball needs to add a second wild
card in each league -- and a play-in game between wild cards before the
Division Series -- to make division races meaningful.

"I don't think the wild cards are at much of a disadvantage," Yankees manager
Joe Torre said. "There should be more of an advantage earned for winning your
division."

Teams have figured out that finishing in second place is no different than
finishing first when it comes to their postseason chances. Wild-card teams
are 26-20 in postseason series -- and in the past five years have accounted
for more World Series appearances (six) and more world championships (three)
than division winners (four pennants, two championships).

But while everybody seems to understand that finishing second can be just as
rewarding as finishing first, why do other untruths about the postseason
continue to flourish? This is the week you'll hear all about the importance
of "hot teams," "home field advantage" and "season series."

Are the Red Sox and Mets in trouble because of a spotty September? Shouldn't
a team push for the best record in the league this week to get home field
advantage? And shouldn't the Indians (0-6 in the season series vs. New York)
be afraid of the Yankees? It's almost all hogwash -- talk-radio prattle and
off-day newspaper filler that means very little. To set the record straight,
here are the top four myths about postseason baseball in the wild-card era:

1. The team with the better record is the favorite.

Baloney. That might have been true before full revenue sharing kicked in. But
now the playing field in baseball is more level than it has ever been. The
difference between the supposed best team in baseball and the 15th-best team
in baseball is far narrower than what it was even eight years ago.

Want proof? From 1995 through '99, the team with the better record won 52.5
percent of postseason series (21-19). Since 2000 the team with the better
record has won only 36.2 percent of the time (17-30). Basically, there's no
such thing as an upset anymore.

2. The "hot" teams -- the ones that play well down the stretch -- are the
ones to fear in the postseason.

Hello? Was anybody watching last year? St. Louis (12-17) and Detroit (12-16)
were awful in September, but wound up playing each other in the World Series.

But it's not just last year. Of the 24 World Series teams in the wild-card
era, 14 of them -- a clear majority -- posted a worse winning percentage
after Sept. 1 than they did overall. The Cardinals and Tigers were the sixth
and seventh teams in that 12-year period to play losing baseball after Sept.
1 and still reach the World Series.

3. The team that won the season series has the edge over its opponent.

Not so. The next time somebody wants to bring up how playoff teams did
against one another during the season, tell them to save their breath. It's
irrelevant.

Over the past two seasons, the team that won the season series over its
opponent is 3-9 when those same teams meet in league postseason play. Did I
hear someone say "small sample"?

OK, let's look at the entire Division Series and League Championship Series
history during the wild-card era. The team that won the season series is
33-36 in postseason rematches, including 12-21 since 2001 (excludes three
matchups of teams that tied their regular-season series). So fear not the
Yankees, Indians fans. October really is a whole new season.

4. It's important to earn home field advantage.

No, it's not. Home teams in postseason games in the wild-card era are
208-182, a .533 winning percentage -- not too different than if you flipped a
coin 390 times. It works out to roughly one extra win per year for all
postseason teams combined.

But, hey, you say you really want that last game in your park if the series
goes the distance, right? Doesn't matter. First of all, 79 percent of
Division and League Championship Series never go the maximum number of games
(57 of 72). And in those 15 series that did go the distance, the home teams
went 5-10.

Now, having World Series Game 7 in your home park might mean something: Home
teams are 8-0 in those ultimate games since 1979. But the site of that game
is determined by the outcome of the All-Star Game, not by how many games a
team wins during the season.

Bottom line: Playoff-certain teams should forget putting the pedal to the
metal. Rest your players, especially your pitchers. The postseason -- no
matter what myths you want to believe -- as Billy Beane so well put it,
really is a crapshoot.


--
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◆ From: 220.132.198.21
※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 220.132.198.21       (09/28 16:30)
推 tweddle:換句話說... 季後賽所謂的主場優勢根本是不存在的囉?
推 HansLee:客隊若前兩場取得1-1回到家反而有利在主場結束系列
→ HansLee:而主隊要前兩場拿2-0反而更有壓力
推 siliver:所以結論是,本身實力提升的最好,然後靠運氣 XDXD
推 whogotme:丟骰子押p幣...
推 hiro1221:結論是...季後賽也是靠運氣...
推 Seapoint:反正繼續贏下去就對了:>
推 goopa:tribe fan:我可以說從來就沒怕過洋基嗎...=_=
※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 220.132.198.21       (09/28 17:04)
推 JessicaA1ba:今天看到傻眼 喵的 Torre現在操張伯倫是在幹啥仔的?
推 scorp34:結論就是大家都想打印地安 避開天使就對了....
推 ccwu59:208勝182敗, 其實我覺得這夠成為主場優勢了..
推 jiunde:沒有優勢?那季賽打完直接頒獎不就好了
推 leddy:12年208-182, 除12年每年為17.3-15.3只多贏了一場而已
推 leddy:而且每年季後有七個系列賽，再除以七差異就更小了
推 iambiaggi:連兩天派喬巴為了測試連兩天出賽對他的球威有沒有影響
→ iambiaggi:拿來當作季後賽的參考...袁公這兩天一直在提這件事XD
推 ninetales:感覺上這篇強調季後賽的獨立性,用例行賽來推測可能不準
→ ninetales:今年能夠拿外卡進入真的很令人雀躍！只希望能夠多贏就好
推 yjkuo:我覺得這根本是看熱鬧的,假使作者自己當了總教練,
→ yjkuo:說的話絕對不一樣...
推 siriusu:推
→ RaXePhOnZeRo:強烈支持豆總的看法 季後賽受運氣波動的機率
→ RaXePhOnZeRo:比平常更高 這篇並沒錯 反正就是盡人事聽天命
推 merquise:推
推 PHILOSOMA:翻得很棒～推一個
推 rayven:推翻譯