Re: [洋基] Determining Joba's Trade Value

[nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)]

Axisa的結論是交易價值不大沒錯，但是光講這句話很容易讓人誤會這篇文章的論點

※ 引述《Sechslee (そんな微軟で大丈夫か？)》之銘言：
:   Determining Joba’s Trade Value
:                                                                By Mike Axisa
:   (Part I)
:   Last season Joba was worth 1.4 fWAR because his strong strikeout (9.67 K/9),
:   walk (2.76 BB/9, 2.51 uIBB/9), and homerun (0.75 HR/9) rates led to a 2.98
:   FIP, 35th best among the 124 relievers that through at least 50 IP. Some
:   unfortunate luck on the BABIP (.327) and strand rate (66.6%) fronts made
:   his ERA (4.40) a lot worse than the underlying performance says it should
:   have been.
他的K/9、BB/9、HR/9非常好，FIP在124個50局以上的RP中排行第35
衰運導致BABIP跟Strand rate難看，所以他的ERA偏高

:   You might disagree, but I think it’s fair to say that those strikeout,
:   walk, and homer rates are indicative of Joba’s true talent level, or at
:   least serve as a rough approximation of it. Even if he regresses some and
:   is a 3.30 FIP reliever, that’s still a valuable piece. The problem going
:   forward is that he can only be so valuable as a middle reliever, especially
:   since Mariano Rivera will be sticking around as closer. Joba’s average
:   Leverage Index last year was 1.22, but he was an eighth inning for half
:   the season. With Rafael Soriano on board, Joba figures to work the six
:   and/or seventh innings.
作者認為K/9等數字才能反映他的天份所在
他的fWAR是1.4，但是同時他的leverage index是1.22
在Soriano來到後他會被往前移，LI應該會下降

:   Going forward, I think 1.4 fWAR might be the upper bound of Joba’s value
:   because of his reduced role. There’s also the potential for improved
:   performance since he spent last season at just 24 years old, so 1.4 fWAR
:   might be underselling his future worth. To be slightly conservative, I’m
:   going to keep it constant going forward, assuming he doesn’t have a big
:   contract push in store for 2013. Teams have gone back to paying about $5M
:   per win this offseason, so a 1.4 fWAR reliever would theoretically fetch
:   $7M per year on the open market. Since Joba’s under team control for the
:   next three seasons, his total value is $21M given our assumptions.
fWAR 1.4作者認為可能是他的極限了
因為第八局的角色被拿走，但是因為他才24歲，也不能排除他進步的可能
先假設他持平，這一季平均1 fWAR值5M，1.4相當7M

:   Now we have to consider the money being paid to him, since that decreases
:   his value. Joba will earn $1.7M in 2011 before getting raises in both 2012
:   and 2013, assuming he isn’t non-tendered. Arbitration salaries are
:   typically estimated with a 40/60/80 breakdown, meaning 40% of value in year
:   one, 60% in year two, and 80% in year three. That $1.7MM salary means Joba
:   is starting at just 25% of expected value in year one though, so perhaps
:   50% in year two and 70% in year three would be more accurate. That would
:   put his next three salaries at just $1.7M (fixed), $3.5M, and $4.9M,
:   respectively. They sound reasonable, so let’s go with them.
接下來三年假設他不簽長約也不被DFA，用25%/50%/70%於真實價值的比例推估
接下來三年薪水將是1.7M/3.5M/4.9M

:   All we have to do to figure out Joba’s trade value is subtract his salary
:   from his production, so that’s…
:   $21M – ($1.7M + $3.5M + $4.9M) = $10.9M
:   Let’s call it $11M just to make it a nice round number. We’re not
:   splitting atoms here, we can fudge a little.
真實價值21M，扣掉三年薪水會得到10.9M，這是淨賺

:   According to Victor Wang’s research, Joba would be able to fetch a
:   pitching prospect that you’d find towards the back of the top 100 list
:   in a trade, which is someone below the Manny Banuelos/Andrew Brackman/
:   Dellin Betances level but above the Hector Noesi/David Phelps/Adam Warren
:   level. He could also get you a full year of Edwin Jackson, assuming Jackson
:   sustains last year’s 3.8 fWAR pace ($10.5M surplus value). If you want to
:   shoot for the moon, you could couple Joba with a Grade-B position player
:   prospect ($5.5M value according to Wang) like Brandon Laird and get Dan
:   Haren, as long as you believe Haren can maintain last year’s 4.5 fWAR
:   pace over the last two guaranteed years of his contract. That’s a
:   reasonable expectation, and would generate $16M in surplus value. We can
:   play this game all day if we want, but that gives you can idea of where
:   his value stands.
根據Victor Wang的研究，Job大概可以交易到Top 100新秀的後段
名單文中有提到

或者比較10.9M的淨賺，在聯盟中相當Edwin Jackson
最樂觀來講他可以甚至類比Dan Haren
（這裡的意思不是單講球員場上貢獻的價值，而是場上價值扣掉薪水後的淨價值）

:   Joba’s trade value looks great in a spreadsheet, but that’s not where
:   this stuff actually happens. That’s why were going to look at comparable
:   trades later today, and I have a feeling that will get a little closer to
:   reality.
:   (Part II)
:   Earlier today we took a sabermetric approach to determining Joba
:   Chamberlain‘s trade value, and we came up with $11M or roughly two wins.
:   Now we’re going to take a more practical approach and compare the current
:   version of Joba to some similar relievers, then look at what they brought
:   back when they were traded.
:   Joba’s career performance as a reliever is pretty damn good. We’re
:   talking about excellent strikeout (10.7 K/9), walk (2.7 uIBB/9), and
:   homerun (0.55 HR/9) rates in 131.2 IP, but if we remove 2007 so the
:   numbers aren’t skewed, we still get 10.3 K/9, 2.76 uIBB/9, and 0.59 HR/9.
:   That’s still pretty damn good. Young pitchers who perform like that
:   usually don’t get traded, so the number of comparable players is somewhat
:   limited. Let’s dive in…
Joba後援的紀錄是真他媽的好(damn good)
就算扣掉威猛的2007年還是他媽的好
這種球員通常是不會被交易的，所以很難找比較的對象

:   Joel Hanrahan
:   Matt Lindstrom
:   Tony Pena
:   Ramon Ramirez
:   Carlos Villanueva
過去交易的比較對象

:   * * *
:   It’s a bit of a mixed bag, and unless the PTBNL in the Villaneuva deal
:   turns out to be some hotshot prospect, Crisp and Allen represent the best
:   of the lot. We don’t need to be all that precise, we’re just trying to
:   get an approximation of Chamberlain’s real life trade value. As we can
:   see, it isn’t all that high. If the absolute best case scenario is a top
:   ten prospect, then you know what? I’d rather just see the Yankees keep
:   Joba. If he stays healthy and maintains his 2009 peripherals going forward,
:   he’ll be a nice piece towards the back of the bullpen.
作者的意思比較偏向Joba根本是被低估的
而有他這種表現的牛通常不會被交易
就算被交易了，過去的例子看來交易不到什麼好菜
如果只是拿一個Top 10的新秀不如留著自己用比較好

:   結論: 交易價值不大，不如留著當牛。

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※ 編輯: nickyang        來自: 67.240.191.113       (01/29 01:59)
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