[新聞] Teixeira 和 Pujols的比較

[kelvin0430 (千里之外的影子)]

http://tinyurl.com/8lfwaa

這是一份拿我們給Teixeira的約做基準，在比較一下Teixeira跟Pujols的相關數據，

然後，預估Pujols應該價值多少？(30M/yr?)

原文實在太長太長了，有興趣者就自己看看吧> <

文章最後提到，如果紅雀要跟Pujols談新約的話，Teixeira 甚或 Alex Rodriguez都不是

他們該去比較的...

他們真正應該思考的是---漢克阿倫(Hank Aaron)放在今天應該價值多少錢？

看完全文後，我只有一個感想...Pujols應該住的離地球很遙遠XD

Pujols' Pending Payday: Teixeira Sets the Mark

By Derrick Goold
St. Louis Post-Dispatch

TOWER GROVE — Five years ago the St. Louis Cardinals and the finest hitter
of his generation were steaming toward what could have been a dicey and
milestone arbitration hearing when, in the 11th hour, Albert Pujols agreed to
the largest contract in franchise history. The deal, still active today, made
Pujols the ninth $100-million man in baseball history and, at 24, the
youngest ever to reach the salary threshold.

As the MVP enters the penultimate year of his guaranteed contract, one thing
is clear.

He's been a bargain.

News of the New York Yankees inking first baseman Mark Teixeira to an
eight-year, $180-million deal rippled through baseball yesterday, and there
were probably two interested parties who had little direct interest in where
Teixeira signed. The Cardinals and Pujols' reps cared about what Teixeira
signed for. The switch-hitting, Gold Glove-caliber Teixeira finalized a deal
with the spree-spending Yankees that averages $22.5 million a year, according
to reports. More than Jason Giambi's contract a few years ago with these same
Yankees, Teixeira is a clear and tangible benchmark to help set the market
for … well, what Pujols could command as a free agent. Does Teixeira's new
deal hint at Pujols' next deal?

Both will be 29 during this coming season. Both hit in the middle of the
order. Both play first.

Beyond that …

Pujols won his second National League MVP this winter. Teixeira has finished
only as high as seventh in the voting, and that was back in 2005. Teixeira,
while a switch hitter, is a .290 career hitter with a .541 career slugging
percentage. Pujols is a career .334 hitter with a .624 slugging percentage.
Some statistical shakedowns:

    CAREER   …   BA/ OBP/ SLG …  162-gm AVG (ba/obp/slg, hr, rbi)

    Teixeira … .290/.378/.541 … .290/.378/.541, 36, 121

    Pujols   … .334/.425/.624 … .334/.425/.624, 42, 128

    3-YEAR   …   BA/ OBP /SLG … HR  … RBI

    Teixeira … .298/.393/,541 … 96  … 336

    Pujols   … .338/.440/.629 … 118 … 356

One number that deserves its popularity because of its authority and its
ability to compare players against each other and the era in which they play
is OPS+. It basically is on-base-percentage plus slugging percentage compared
against the league average. It's a number set at 100 — so <100 is below
average and >100 is above average. Teixeira's career OPS is a sturdy 134.
Pujols' is 170.

Using additional advanced-placement metrics that we have at our fingertips
these days, Pujols pulls even further ahead. Value Over Replacement Player
(VORP) is simply the number of runs one player contributes to the team over
what a replacement at the same position would do with the same number of
plate appearances. This past season Pujols led the majors with a 98.6 VORP,
according to Baseball Prospectus. It is the second time in three seasons that
Pujols has been No. 1.

Teixeira hasn't cracked the top 50 in that same span.

    VORP (according to Baseball Prospectus)

    2008 — Teixeira: 35.2 (53rd), right around Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria and

                               two other high-priced ballplayers, Derek Jeter

                               and Magglio Ordonez.
            Pujols: 98.6 (1st).

    2007 — Teixeira: 27.1 (91st). … Pujols: 72.1 (9th).

    2006 — Teixeira: 37.4 (54th), sandwiched between Edgar Renteria and

                                   Scott Rolen, and we all know what was

                                   going on then with him.

            Pujols: 85.4 (1st).

Pujols, it should be noted, does not switch-hit like Teixeira. Of course, he
doesn't need to.

But what about defense? The measures of defense are constantly evolving and
improving. One of the best out there right now is the plus/minus used by The
Fielding Bible. This is the same publication that has awarded Pujols its
equivalent of the Gold Glove every year that is has given out the award.
Pujols won this year despite not leading his position in plus/minus for the
first time in three seasons. Who did? Teixeira. It only takes a few games of
watching Teixeira to know that he's an above-average defensive player.
Athletic. Agile. Etc. The numbers don't necessarily support the eyes, but
it's safe to say Pujols and Teixeira are, ahem, in the same ballpark when it
comes to playing first base.

Their plus/minus scores for the past three seasons (rank at the position in
parentheses).

    PLAYER,   POS … 2006    … 2007    … 2008

    Teixeira, 1B  … +2 (15) … -4 (22) … +24 (1)

    Pujols,   1B  … +25 (1) … +37 (1) … +20 (2)

All of that is prelude to the original question: What does Teixeira's new
deal tell us about Pujols' next deal?

It's a mind-boggling to consider. Is Pujols twice the player, twice the
salary? Is Pujols 1 1/2-times the player? Pujols is signed on a guaranteed
deal through 2010, and there is a $16-million option for the 2011 season.
According to the USA Today salary database (see blogroll), Pujols' salary
didn't crack the top 25 this past season, but at $16 million for 2009 he'll
likely be in the top 10. Teixeira, at about $20 million in 2009, could be in
the top five.

The Cardinals, led then by Walt Jocketty, scored a coup by buying Pujols out
of his arbitration years entirely, and they do have rights to him until just
a few months before he turns 32. That could reduce the years Pujols will
command — especially compared to 29-year-old Teixeira — but not the salary.

I've found a few places that have attempted to answer the question what
Pujols would make as a free agent in today's markets. Some present it merely
as an academic discussion and don't arrive at any answer. Others break into
mathematical gymnastics far beyond this blog's ability to translate. At The
Baseball Economists' blog, J.C. Bradbury frames his MVP argument in 2007
around revenue generated by a players' performance. Pujols ranks well. At
Fangraphs there was an announcement today that they are translating some of
their sharpest stats into dollar figures and will have leaderboards up
shortly. Over at The Book, a blog spawned from a book about The Book, the
author wrestled with the Pujols Question, and came to some outrageous
conclusions: $300 million. As his guide he used a fascinating scale based on
Wins Above Replacement (WAR), similar to the above Value.

The author's chart is available here, and it illustrates how a player with a
7.0 wins above a replacement player is deserving of a 10-year, $305.9 million
contract. (Yowza.)

Using those aforementioned Fangraph numbers, Pujols' WAR in 2008 was … 9.0.

Clearly, there is no way to calculate Pujols' worth using other players'
salaries. He defies the market. Teixeira's new contract only underscores what
was already apparent: Pujols is due a raise. A hefty one. If five years ago,
he was the youngest $100-million man, then two years from now is he the first
$30-million year man? The way his contract with the Cardinals is structured
they will be paying him deferred salary long after he retires, until 2029.
Might as well minimize the paperwork and keep the paychecks coming from the
same source.

To determine the value of that paycheck, however, you can't rely on
comparables. Or, maybe not current comparables. Baseball-Reference.com has a
unique feature that compares a player at his current age against all players
at the same age. For a majority of his career, Pujols has compared favorably
to Joe DiMaggio. There was a break this season. Here are Teixeira's and
Pujols' comparables, via Baseball-Reference.com's formula:

    Teixeira

       1. Carlos Delgado
       2. Kent Hrbek
       3. Fred McGriff

    Pujols

       1. Jimmie Foxx
       2. Hank Aaron
       3. Frank Robinson

Maybe that's the key to understanding how the Cardinals can approach Pujols'
new contract. It's Teixeira or even Alex Rodriguez that they should consider.
Neither compares. The question is: What would Hank Aaron make today?

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 59.120.106.234
推 birdy590:有沒有在適當時機變成 FA 是最大的差別
推 FENOR:真的是怪物...確實比ARod強啊(強多少不知道...)
推 forever215:有沒有適當的經紀人 才是最大的差別 Scott Boras
推 cardfat:鐵爺這兩年都換過隊喔
推 birdy590:以鐵爺今年在市場上的定位, 他的經紀人有很大的操作空間
推 gerkk:只能祈禱撲猴子乖乖待在國聯
推 appshjkli:實際上就算Pujols變FA我們也沒空間去擺放他
推 molemilk:真的妖獸
推 birdy590:如果是今年變 FA 怎麼會沒有空間, 只是換個人搶罷了
推 appshjkli:就是因為他不會是今年FA
→ birdy590:等撲猴子合約快要結束, 準備談續約的時候一到就知道了
→ appshjkli:再來實際上我也不相信他會成為FA
推 stonemonkey:變FA光是放DH就很值得了..況且還要好久,變數還很大呢
→ birdy590:那時候就算選擇變 FA 也已經 31 歲, 要談到八年不容易
→ OoyaoO:因為他叫做Pujols  31歲的他要談到8年應該是基本 不是要求
推 fonder:他應該會在紅雀當傳奇吧~又不缺戒指
推 phix:如果a-rod還是游擊手的話...應該可以比吧...
推 jdtrue:這種咖出現在FA  簽到42歲都不意外
推 maplestory:許多偉大球員數據再好 終身遺憾就是缺顆戒指阿XD
推 molemilk:推phix A-Rod守3B真是天大的浪費
推 xven:Pujols重點應該在於簽幾年吧
推 CUTECNS:打擊+SS+長相+Boras → 我覺得 ARod 還是比較值錢..XD
推 AaronBoone:推長相!!Pojols輸在大叔臉
推 KaKashou:一比較真的 撲吼獅跟鬼一樣
推 Benitez:幹麻這樣...Pujols超可愛的
推 wegaman:借轉紅鳥版
推 wegaman:如果不能轉請來信告知  我會把轉文刪除
→ kelvin0430:不會不能轉啦...反正就是大家一起看看囉
推 papazzz:難道只有我覺得Pujols很帥嗎 @@a
推 basarasaga:今年洋基就是想直接拿冠軍了....等不到他FA啦~
推 BraveCattle:Pujols如果進FA,應該也是簽他當1B,Teixeira轉DH吧,不
→ BraveCattle:過我覺得真得進了,NYY應該不會去追逐吧XD
推 loiter3:你們三年後DH會是A-Rod
推 KevinLiou:Teixeira 練外野阿 XD
推 kinghwang443:不至於那麼快啦= =
推 loiter3:怎樣也不會是Teix去DH就是,當然前提在於Pujols
→ OoyaoO:ARod都可以去3壘了 哪天老闆興致來直接把Teix放LF也可能
推 earowltanha:ARod有沒有可能再回SS啊?y
推 appshjkli:不可能
推 GDBS:如果Pujols真的到FA 那一定拼命搶吧～ 鐵爺？要碼DH，要碼拿
→ GDBS:去搶別人農場 反正鐵爺沒有NTC XD
→ GDBS:放LF或許也可以吧～ whatever~
→ appshjkli:抱歉,Teix可是有Full-NTC
→ appshjkli:只是沒有逃脫條款:P
推 iambiaggi:應該是有NTC，但是沒跳脫條款
→ GDBS:有NTC? 我怎麼記得之前看到沒有? 看來是我錯過了甚麼? orz
→ GDBS:阿... 對，是沒跳脫條款 我完全記錯了 Orz
→ GDBS:anyway, Pujols進FA的機率應該很低就是了~
推 OoyaoO:我是認為Pujols不是跟紅雀簽到退休就是被拿去屠人農場
推 griffonshen:A-Rod值錢是因為他守的是游擊和三壘...Pujols一壘...
推 GDBS:Pujols的打擊可是Bonds級的 加上他一壘也是金手套級...
推 appshjkli:Pujols就算是1B,但是他可是可能成為史上10大打者的打者
推 NPLNT:Pujols不是也可以守外野嗎? 他不是還守過游擊?
推 righthand:Pujols長的比較Man
→ GDBS:還蠻想看看Pujols屠農場會是甚麼慘狀 XD
推 appshjkli:不過就算如此我個人認為Lou Gehrig還是會是史上最強的1B
推 purification:Pujols打擊是Bonds平均級  還離Bonds巔峰級很遠
→ purification:不過Bonds的巔峰級那幾年卻又跟禁藥扯上關係
推 earowltanha:可能是沒吃藥吧
推 OoyaoO:都打幾年了?游擊? Giambi也守過游擊阿XD
推 cyme:有些推文看起來還真不舒服阿.......
推 findme:這篇只是在告訴我們Pujols有可能是第一個30M/y的球員XD
→ findme:好可怕的數據
推 andy114425:先不看藥的話，Pujols的打擊跟Bonds差很多，根本不是同
→ andy114425:一個等級的好唄...
推 roger744:182跟170會差很多嗎@@
推 philluke:以身高來說差很多XD  lol~
推 Pujols5:的確是差很多阿 Bonds的比較對像是Ruth和Teddy
推 GDBS:說Pujols是Bonds等級的確太快了點 不過跟A-Rod也是有差距在
推 lavarock:沒有耶 我覺得AROD並沒有比較帥喔
推 albertjet:Pujols比Foxx略強，比Gehrig差一些 至於Bonds 不予置評
→ albertjet:Bonds就算捨棄01~04那扯爆的四年，他還是不輸Pujols
→ albertjet:但他就是吃藥了
推 tigernaxo:吃藥就輸了
推 mightymouse:Pujols大概跟年輕的Giambi差不多吧
推 tigernaxo:看來Pujols真的有夠強  被拿來跟很多吃藥的比 XD
推 siliver:如果Pujols也去找Boras當經紀人,他就肯定進FA XD
推 O5:345男魂!!
推 BraveCattle:其實我並不覺得Pujols的打擊有明顯的強過A-Rod,說他要
→ BraveCattle:拿30M/yr的環境變數也很不穩定,這篇之所以沒被噓只因
→ BraveCattle:為他是外國人寫的英文吧(逃)
推 jayin07:plate discipline就差多了...
推 jayin07:更別說在Bonds未回到球場、Manny即將退休之後
→ jayin07:Pujols可是新世代的打擊之神呀
推 BraveCattle:強調Pujols的plate discipline只是在突顯他和A-Rod的
→ BraveCattle:打擊型態不同啊,確實啦,A-Rod的上壘率是比Pujols差,不
→ BraveCattle:過要因此說Pujols明顯優於A-Rod只能說看人囉
推 bonoo:大概只有樓上覺得沒有差很多吧 不是說2個成績都很好就不能比
推 bonoo:至於30M/y文章也所有本 pujols等級比replacement level多7
→ bonoo:勝 一勝大約是5M 5*7=35 Teixeira則是多5勝
推 BraveCattle:我並不是認為成績好就不能比啊,真要比我認為Pujols>
→ BraveCattle:Manny>A-Rod,只是要強調明顯我覺得見仁見智啦,至於拿
→ BraveCattle:Teixeira推Pujols,我只能說在簽之前就很多人在討論
→ BraveCattle:到底Teixeira的合理薪資在哪,拿Teixeira簽多少推論不
→ BraveCattle:準啦
推 Wolfken:撲吼死可是有肘爆彈，雖然這幾年都沒爆，誰知道何時會爆
推 jayin07:他已經去開刀了，OK?
→ Wolfken:但是已經每年固定要進場維修一到兩次了，哪一年打一打突然
→ Wolfken:爆掉...他動刀了但是韌帶的部分沒動，真的動韌帶恐怕是
→ Wolfken:整季報銷
推 jayin07:他如果在十月動TJ只會miss前一個月
推 siliver:看看囉,反正還有幾年不是嗎,要是Pujols還能繼續維持健康的
→ siliver:身體和鬼神般的成績,想拿到鬼神級的合約不是問題.
推 redsnipertd:嘖嘖，玩FB消息這麼不靈通行嗎?
推 IBIZA:不認為Pujols比Foxx略強...
推 s80454:A-ROD的價值不是單純在打吧= =  打+守+跑+SS才是他整體價值
推 truth76901:還在A-ROD ss...   個人覺得猴子的確比A-ROD有價值
→ GDBS:可惜現在A-Rod不是SS了┐(─＿─)┌
推 AaronBoone:反正 都你們覺得就好了 一天到晚也吵不完
推 oralboralb:31一歲在簽長約也還好吧   阿肉不也在32歲簽了十年約
→ oralboralb:不過阿肉健康的身體實在令人羨慕......
推 RayGun34:PUJOLS打擊比較強  AROD還在ss就差不多
推 awxefrgt:單純覺得SS的A-rod比較強  不復見的神級守備
推 charles111:普猴子超帥的好嗎!!看訪問他的影片說話都很得體
→ charles111:很喜歡他啊!!
→ kelvin0430:我也覺得Pujols很帥說︿︿
推 timidwei:標題明明是鐵鐵VS濕濕 卻出現了肉肉