推 siliver:Cano加油啊~~~~ 01/20 00:21
At this time last year, Robinson Cano was being discussed as a top-five
second baseman and was being selected in the fourth round of traditional
mixed-league drafts, sometimes even earlier. After all, how can you go wrong
with a .300+, 20 home run hitter batting in the most potent lineup in
baseball, entering the prime of his career, at a scarce position? Well,
here's how:
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+
| 2008 | 25 | Yankees | 597 | 0.271 | 14 | 72 | 70 | 2 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+----+-----+----+----+
A very disappointing season, to say the least. So what happened? Were we
overrating Cano to begin with? Is this a legitimate step back? Or was it bad
luck? Let's take a look.
Power
If you're new to THT Fantasy Focus and are unfamiliar with True Home Runs
(tHR) or any of the other stats I'm using, check out our quick reference
guide. These stats provide a much clearer picture of a player's talent, so
it's well worth taking a couple of minutes to learn them.
------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+-----+
YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | FB% |
------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+-----+
2006 | 23 | Yankees | 482 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 6.6 | 25 |
2007 | 24 | Yankees | 617 | 19 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 1.9 | 29 |
2008 | 25 | Yankees | 597 | 14 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0.6 | 31 |
------+-----+---------+-----+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+-----+-----+
While Cano's HR/FB is on a three-year decline and fell into the single-digits
in 2008, this decline looks mostly like bad luck. His tHR/FB was strong this
year at 15 percent, right around his three-year average and above his 2007
level.
In addition, his outfield fly rate seems to have established a new level of
about 30 percent or so, up from 26 and 25 percent in 2005 and 2006,
respectively. Put this all together—and the fact that he'll be a year closer
to his prime at 26 years old—and Cano looks like a threat to hit 25 home
runs in 2009.
We need to be aware that he won't be playing in the same stadium in 2009, but
as we've discussed before, the only real concern is the wind.
Contact
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+
| 2006 | 23 | Yankees | 482 | 0.342 | 0.336 | 89 | 0.363 | 0.346 | 20 |
| 2007 | 24 | Yankees | 617 | 0.306 | 0.318 | 86 | 0.331 | 0.342 | 17 |
| 2008 | 25 | Yankees | 597 | 0.271 | 0.315 | 89 | 0.286 | 0.317 | 19 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-------+-------+-----+-------+--------+-----+
While Cano hit .271 this year, his True Batting Average has been quite stable
and was a very healthy .315. His low average this year was a combination of a
lower-than-normal BABIP and the aformentioned decreased power.
We've already discussed the power, and Marcels projects his BABIP at .317
(0.031 above his 2008 BABIP). Bill James comes in at .313 and CHONE at .318.
Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton's system is slightly less optimistic at .301
but still well ahead of Cano's 2008 figure. If he ends up that low again, I
will be quite surprised.
It's also worth noting that his contact rate fell three points in 2007 but
bounced back in 2008. Let's also take a quick look at his plate discipline
numbers to see if we can find an explanation:
+------+-----+---------+-----+-----+-----------+------+------------+----------+
| YEAR | AGE | TEAM | AB | CT% |JUDGMENT X | A/P |BAT CONTROL | BAD BALL |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-----+-----------+------+------------+----------+
| 2005 | 22 | Yankees | 522 | 87 | 103 | 0.32 | 95 | 61 |
| 2006 | 23 | Yankees | 482 | 89 | 103 | 0.47 | 95 | 63 |
| 2007 | 24 | Yankees | 617 | 86 | 101 | 0.44 | 95 | 69 |
| 2008 | 25 | Yankees | 597 | 89 | 116 | 0.31 | 94 | 75 |
+------+-----+---------+-----+-----+-----------+------+------------+----------+
From 2005 to 2008, Cano's numbers look pretty stable, and he seemed to
establish a contact rate of around 88 percent. 2007 looks like a bit of an
outlier, and we actually see his numbers jump in 2008. His Judgment increased
by 15 points and his Bad Ball Hitting increased by six points. I can't say
for certain that his contact rate should have been higher than 89 percent,
but it certainly looks like there could be some upside in 2009.
Overall, a batting average over .310 should be expected, with plenty of room
for growth.
RBI and runs
Cano has batted mostly 6th, 7th, and 8th over the past few years, but he
still managed 97 RBIs and 93 runs in 2007. In 2008, those numbers dropped
because of his decreased power output and his 0.048 point OBP drop (most of
which can be attributed to his batting average drop, though he did walk a
little less). When those bounce back in 2009, I'd expect Cano to go maybe
85/85. If he's really lucky, he'll move into the second spot in the order at
some point in the year and go 100/100, though I'm not sure how likely that is.
Market value
We're starting to get a little more to look at, and for Cano, they all seem
to be saying the same thing, so I'm just about ready to stop including the
usual disclaimer about small-ish sample sizes and year-end data. That being
said, here's what Cano's market value is shaping up as:
CBS Sportsline Expert Draft No. 1: 8th 2B (76th Overall/R7)
CBS Sportsline Mock Draft No. 1: 8th 2B (83rd Overall/R7)
Mock Draft No. 1: 8th 2B (93rd Overall/R8)
CBS Sportsline Expert Draft No. 2: 8th 2B (96th Overall/R8)
CBS Sportsline: 8th 2B (97th Overall)
FOX Sports: 8th 2B
Rotoworld Expert Mock Draft: 9th 2B (87th Overall/R8 — I selected him)
ProTrade Value: 14th 2B
The consensus seems to be that Cano is the eighth second baseman that should
be taken in 2009, and he might have fallen even farther in the Rotoworld
draft had I not selected him. I completely disagree with this assessment and
think Cano makes for a great value in the eighth round. If you agree with my
evaluation of him, I'd wait until the beginning of round seven and then pull
the trigger.
Concluding thoughts
All-in-all, I think Cano should be good for a line of .310/20/80/80/5 at the
very least. A line like that would make Cano worthy of a fifth round pick,
and he could be worthy of a third or fourth rounder if he puts up a line
closer to .320/25/85/85/5. Either way, Cano is a guy I figure I'll own in a
lot of leagues this year, selecting him in the seventh round (or the sixth if
my seventh-round pick doesn't come until the end of the round).
Smoke and mirrors? Absolutely.
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