作者leddy (耿秋)
看板NY-Yankees
標題[洋基] Chien-Ming Wang was broken. Did they fix him?
時間Sat May 23 23:10:35 2009
http://statspeak.net/2009/05/chien-ming-wang-was-broken-did-they-fix-him.html
球速回來了，伸卡球的水平的movement有了，但垂直的movement掉得不夠...甚至比前三
場先發掉得還少....
小王想要用更高的放球點來投球....Orz
Statistically Speaking
May 23, 2009
Chien-Ming Wang was broken. Did they fix him?
Chien-Ming Wang returned to the major league mound on Friday night in relief
of the struggling AJ Burnett. In three innings of work, he allowed 2 runs on
6 hits (one home run) and one walk. That outing lowered his season ERA by 9
1/2 points... to a cool 25.00. Yikes.
Wang had been rehabbing what was diagnosed as essentially weakness in his
hips, which reportedly resulted from a foot injury he sustained last season
in Houston while running the bases. He had been doing relatively well in
rehab starts in AAA, and the Yankees needed a long reliever for the game
after burning the bullpen the night before. I mentioned above Wang's results
for the night, but let's take a look at how he got there, through the eyes of
pitch f/x.
His average fastball was a strong 92.5 mph, averaging about 10 inches of
horizontal movement and 6.8 inches of vertical "rise." How does that compare
to the beginning of this season, when he was getting bombed, and to 2008,
when he was pretty good? Here's a grid, for easier comparison:
Game Avg. Velocity Max. Velocity Horiz. Mmt(in.) Vert. Mmt (in.)
2008 91.8 ~95 11 4.9
2009 90.7 ~93 9.3 5.7
Tonight 92.5 95 10 6.8
Alright, so we see that his velocity tonight was back where it should be, and
his horizontal movement is creeping back up. But what's up with the vertical
movement? He's a sinker-ball specialist, remember. The lower the value of the
vertical movement, the more the ball is "sinking." Curveballs, which have a
sharp downward break, are in the negatives. Tonight, 50% of his balls in play
were groundballs, might that have been a fluke?
Let's look at some individual games and find out. One of his best games in
2008 happened on May 2nd against the Mariners. He had 5 K's, 2 walks, in 6
innings, allowing one run. More importantly (for our purposes), the M's had
10 groundballs versus only 2 flyballs. In that game, Wang had 14.5 inches of
horizontal movement, which is just fantastic, and 4.5 inches of vertical
movement, which is also great. Going back a month earlier to opening day
(which I was at), Wang threw 7 innings with 16 (!) groundballs, versus only 3
flyballs. In that game, the numbers were almost identical to the gem against
the Mariners. He had 13 inches of horizontal movement and 4.5 inches of
vertical movement, both of those of course being fantastic for a
sinker/2-seamer.
So it would seem that it's the vertical movement that's causing him problems.
here's the part that completely threw me when looking into this: Chien-Ming
Wang's vertical movement on his 4/8 and 4/18 starts of this season were 5
inches and 3.5 inches, respectively. Remember, in those games he got
absolutely bombed to the tune of 5 innings and 15 runs. His ball was sinking,
but it was still getting rocked. Here was my reaction upon seeing this.
My next stop was the location graphs available on Brooks Baseball. If you
look at Friday's game, you'll see that there were very few balls just below
the strike zone. Compare that to his opening day start from 2008, and you see
some difference. The Friday start isn't nearly as down in the zone. These two
starts, both from earlier this season, are even worse. Ok, so that was a lot
of links all at once. If you got confused with keeping track of what's what,
or you just don't want to click through, here's what it means: Wang isn't
keeping the ball down this year nearly as well as he did in 2008. While his
ball is sinking, it's not being thrown down in the zone enough to be
effective.
Finally, here is what I believe to be the main reason for his problems. There
are 5 links below, all of them are from games already referenced in this
post. What the images show is release point data, from pitch f/x. Simply put,
the 2008 release points are from good games, the 2009 release points are from
bad games. Try opening each one in a different tab and switch back and forth
to more clearly see the difference.
4/1/2008 5/2/2008 4/8/2009 4/18/2009 5/22/2009
Pay special attention to the first two versus the last three. See how the
first two graphs have the cluster of points lower and farther away than the
last three? This means that Wang's release point in 2008 was lower than it
currently is. As you can see, his stay on the DL has done nothing to change
that--it is still higher than it was in two of his most dominant starts of
2008.
The thing that troubles me most as a Yankee fan is that neither Wang nor the
Yankees seem to realize this. Take this snippet from beat writer Pete Abraham
on April 14th, after Wang allowed 8 runs in an inning of work the day before:
"Wang seemed stunned. He said the issue was where he released the ball, which
was off to the side instead of over the top. A sinkerball pitcher wants to
stand tall on the mound and throw the ball on a downward plane. Otherwise the
ball floats over the strike zone and you see what happens." Despite having
success in 2008 with a lower release point than he had in the early stages in
2009, he wanted to raise his release point even more.
To answer the question in the title, "did they fix him?" As it stands right
now, I don't think they did.
--Chien-Ming Wang's release point has been discussed previously at River Ave.
Blues.
--Thanks to Brooks Baseball and FanGraphs for pitch f/x data.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.225.145.15
推 ninjaxin:快推免得人家說我看不懂 05/23 23:12
※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 61.225.145.15 (05/23 23:13)
推 redsnipertd:sinker不是出手點低一點 會比較有垂直的movement嗎? 05/23 23:15
推 phix:看不懂 6.8不是大於5.7 4.9嗎?? 05/23 23:19
推 mabigfly:他揮臂動作是比以前高，球速出來剩下就是微調了 05/23 23:20
→ leddy:那個值越低movement越好... 05/23 23:21
→ mabigfly:真正狀況的確要跟大聯盟打者對決才看得出來，小王加油 05/23 23:22
推 sauming:當中繼可以催球速 先發還會有相同的水準嗎？ 05/23 23:23
推 jdtrue:release point整整高了半英呎耶.... 05/23 23:26
推 gerkk:他這一場的伸卡橫移的比較多 05/23 23:28
推 cbolong:至少今天投完 讓小王知道現在還有很多要改 05/23 23:29
推 power0727:請問小王自己投球時 球會橫移或垂直他自己不知道嗎? 05/23 23:29
→ power0727:不然同樣伸卡 怎有的球是橫移 有的是垂直 05/23 23:30
推 jdtrue:我想只有knuckleball pitcher才會不知道自己球大概會怎麼跑 05/23 23:31
→ jdtrue:那兩個movement當然是同時的事情....不然就是兩種球路了 05/23 23:32
推 power0727:小王出手時 應該可以控制球是上下跑 還是左右跑吧? 05/23 23:32
推 jdtrue:很少有球路單純只有一個軸的位移的... 05/23 23:34
推 raygod:他的伸卡都是往右打者內角跑吧 05/23 23:35
→ leddy:小便球就只有一個位移啦.... 05/23 23:36
推 raygod:放球點跟進DL前一模一樣 -_-||| 05/23 23:47
推 phix:那數字到達0的話是什麼意思啊?? 05/23 23:49
→ leddy:Curve就是負的... 05/23 23:50
推 jdtrue:那個值是個比較值 05/23 23:51
推 power0727:垂直的不夠多 那投教沒法指導嗎? 05/23 23:55
推 cardfat:原來愛蘭德一直說沒問題的原因就是現在的機制對他是正確的 05/23 23:55
→ gerkk:完全垂直就變成指叉球啦 05/23 23:56
推 bymee:也許這是多練滑球的關係？ 05/23 23:56
推 jayin07:一般來講...high slot的垂直變化會比較大 05/23 23:56
→ jayin07:而越低就會越往左移動的越多(右投手為例,下勾不考慮) 05/23 23:57
推 jdtrue:pFX這麼容易指導就人人變CY了... 05/23 23:58
→ jayin07:Eiland的思維就很傳統... 05/23 23:58
→ jayin07:基本上，他的作法沒什麼不對 05/23 23:58
→ jayin07:就增加他的垂直movement而言 05/23 23:58
→ jayin07:但是，這很有可能讓弊大於利的可能性 05/23 23:59
推 Ruri:今天我聽mlbtv,球評好像有講王這樣應該要有第二球種會比較好 05/24 00:01
→ chasebreeze:乾脆把王建民賣出去啦 侮辱人家也要有限度 05/24 00:02
→ chasebreeze:現在缺的不是3A調整 而是大聯盟感覺來回溫手感.經驗 05/24 00:03
→ jayin07:#2 pitch這已經不是新聞了，三年前就在球探報告出現過了 05/24 00:03
推 Ruri:但是沒長出來,而且王本身好像不會自己調整呀,這樣頗麻煩的 05/24 00:05
推 jayin07:這種東西也不是說長就長的... 05/24 00:05
推 hagridsu:快速伸卡球真的是會隨著年齡增加而迅速退化~不可否認 05/24 00:05
→ jayin07:像Lincecum剛進職棒的時候，他的changeup被評只有平均水準 05/24 00:06
→ jayin07:那時候他的#2 pitch是power curve... 05/24 00:06
→ jayin07:但是我看他現在的changeup已經是plus水準，而且是他 05/24 00:07
→ jayin07:奪三振的主要來源... 05/24 00:07
→ jayin07:像Phil Hughes大家都認為他只要changeup可以長起來 05/24 00:08
推 Ruri:這樣會不會跟教練有關,今天這樣春訓或許應該就有徵兆吧 05/24 00:08
→ jayin07:就可能成為真正的ace,但是三年過去了，那他顆changeup還是 05/24 00:08
→ jayin07:below average - average之間的水準 05/24 00:09
→ Ruri:但是他上一場還是9k... 05/24 00:09
→ Ruri:王今天好多削到gameday框框最下面線的球都沒撿,真的超慘 05/24 00:10
推 kimifort: 只投了五局有七個人上壘.... 05/24 00:10
推 jonnydamon:剛回來....好嗎 :) 05/24 00:11
推 jayin07:那場9k一點都不干change-up的事 05/24 00:12
→ kimifort:投手的投球機制跟剛不剛回來沒什麼關係 05/24 00:12
推 jdtrue:那一場9K大部分是4-seam的傑作 05/24 00:12
→ kimifort:要說有關係也是回來前就應該要調整好 05/24 00:12
推 Ruri:我的意思是說,即使沒有那個changeup Hughes還是可以9k 05/24 00:13
推 jayin07:他那顆change up本來就是要拿來伺候左打的 05/24 00:14
→ jayin07:還是你認為一個投手沒有對付左打的武器，可以成為大投手囉 05/24 00:15
→ jayin07:後來取代他changeup的cutter在第一場對O's可是被打爆耶... 05/24 00:16
→ jayin07:就算他今年在3A看起來好像很嚇人,但是他對LH的BA高到.292 05/24 00:18
→ jayin07:這只是小聯盟哦... 05/24 00:18
推 Ruri:好吧 那這樣感覺NYY真的就是不太會養投手... 05/24 00:18
推 kimifort:通常新秀養成率不是不到七成嗎 之前才看到的文章 05/24 00:19
推 jayin07:no,70%是1th Rounder升上MLB的機率 05/24 00:21
→ jayin07:正確的數字是67.1% 05/24 00:21
→ jayin07:但是站穩過的,只剩下42.1% 05/24 00:22
→ leddy:但勇士的會比較低... 05/24 00:22
→ jayin07:但是這個站穩的門檻設定的蠻低的... 05/24 00:22
推 kimifort:感謝回應 05/24 00:23
→ jayin07:1000PA,300IP,100G,就是BA那期 05/24 00:23
→ jayin07:Q&A所設定的門檻... 05/24 00:23
推 jdtrue:career stats?會不會太低了點...這樣的70%要幹嘛... 05/24 00:30
推 appshjkli:勇士的比較低阿XD 05/24 00:36
推 jayin07:XD 05/24 00:36
推 jdtrue:XDD 這句有婊 05/24 00:38
推 raygod:Hughes的cutter還沒練滿一年,快練好吧~ 05/24 00:49
推 warchiefdodo:問個蠢問題，小王真被丟到MILB 那一定大家搶者撿 05/24 01:09
→ warchiefdodo:那是有什麼規則能決定誰能撿到這名球員呢? 05/24 01:09
→ jayin07:大家搶著撿的話，王建民是沒辦法clear waiver到minor的XD 05/24 01:10
推 raygod:戰績最差的同一聯盟球隊有優先權吧 05/24 01:12
→ raygod:如果是claim waiver的話 05/24 01:13
推 fatoes:他出手點比前一年要高很多了 還想要更高....是怎樣 05/24 01:29
→ jayin07:學王大蠻吧，這樣就超高的 05/24 01:30
→ appshjkli:XDDDDDDDD 05/24 01:31
推 agoodjob:怎麼都有的說嘴的吧!你就期待每個投手每場都能有 05/24 01:39
→ agoodjob:最大的球速 最大的水平位移 最大的垂直位移 最大的尾勁! 05/24 01:40
→ agoodjob:球種說就更好笑了 他從以前就這樣了 又不是現在才這樣 05/24 01:43
→ agoodjob:總之爆了三場後，什麼都不對了！科科～ 05/24 01:44
推 awhat:關於原文想要用更高的放球點 是看那三張圖推論的 05/24 01:52
→ awhat:還是有外電? 05/24 01:52
推 kimifort:外電 05/24 01:52
推 merquise:他那三場只是告訴大家一個 CMW & Silva 真的很像 05/24 01:53
→ merquise:sinker 不在的時候就變人肉發球機 05/24 01:53
推 appshjkli:CCLu終於寫新文章了XD 05/24 01:54
推 kimifort:有人知道CCLu寫經濟學的部落格嗎? 05/24 01:54
→ merquise:不過反正練其他球種講了好幾年也沒有明顯進步 05/24 01:55
推 awhat:哪一家媒體的外電阿? 05/24 01:56
→ merquise:一直提增加球種意義似乎也不大就是 05/24 01:56
推 jayin07:CCLu近期的棒球BLOG文章的comments底下有... 05/24 01:56
推 kimifort:看了半天找不到 哭哭 感謝appshjkli大大囉 05/24 01:59
推 kimifort:CCLu對Arod的評論跟OoyaoO的轉錄不太一樣 = =||| 05/24 02:04
→ leddy:CCLu寫的應該就是stark文章中球探寫的那一段... 05/24 02:12
→ leddy:#1A5XIO5K 原來Stark還真的有來這版XDD 05/24 02:28
推 Sustainer:污辱王建民? 拜託 王迷就算仇視洋基也有個限度好嗎 05/24 06:51
→ Sustainer:球團怎麼可能有控去侮辱球員 實力才是一切好嗎 05/24 06:53
推 Minamii:爲什麼要理那種很明顯就是在引戰的人呢 05/24 07:35
推 ahuahala:小白不要管他們就不會有戰文了 05/24 07:45
推 Sustainer:抱歉 一不小心就被激到了.... 05/24 07:50
推 kimifort:原來是那篇阿 感謝leddy大大 05/24 08:24