[翻譯] What Went Wang?

作者leddy (耿秋)

看板NY-Yankees

標題[翻譯] What Went Wang?

時間Fri May 29 00:21:39 2009

王怎麼會演變到這個地步呢? (What Went Wang音似What Went Wrong) 可能的壞消息 By Steve Lombardi (waswatching.com) 今天，Peter Abraham的文章裡寫道: 王建民本季投出讓人害怕的結果。殘酷的、糟透了、令人厭惡的。讓人看到完全意料不到的結果。但是在他去年六月傷了腳前他投出了46勝15敗，自責失分率3.74的成績，且從來不曾讓洋基隊惹上任何的麻煩。他上場總是善盡自己的任務，而且成了隊中模範的隊友。＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊＊他寫的全都對。而且，老實說，今天在這個部落格的某個地方的回應中。我也寫道本季開始時我也沒有想到王會發生"這種狀況。但是，再想想，過去的歷史裡，看過23歲的Steve Avery在1991和1992兩年的表現後， 1993年4月，會有人會想到這一年他的成績會"這樣"嗎? 而再說說最近的例子，30歲的Aaron Harang，看過他2005-2007三年優異的成績後，會有人想到他去年的成績會"這樣"嗎? 27歲的Mark Buehrle，2001-2005年繳出穩定的成績後，2006年4月，會有人預料到這一年他的成績會"這樣"嗎? 29歲的Ken Hill，看過他1992-1994年優異的表現後，1995年4月，會有人預料到這一年他成績會"這樣"嗎? 29歲的Matt Morris，看過他2001-2003年的表現後，2004年4月，會有人想到這一年他的成績會"這樣"嗎? 27歲的Danny Jackson，看過他1985-1988四年穩定的成績後，1989年四月會有人想到他那年的成績會"這樣"嗎? 25歲的Joel Pineiro，看過他2001-2003年三年的表現後，2004年4月，會有人預料到他那年的成績會"這樣"嗎? 26歲的Justin Thompson，看過他1997和1998年的表現後，1999年4月又會有人想到那季的成績他會"這樣"嗎? 如果你夠誠實的話，上述這些問題的答案可能都是"沒有"。(而且，這些記錄，都只是一些投手在那個時候似乎不可能會走下坡的例子。還可以舉出更多，更多的例子。) 現在，絕對不是說"殺蟲王"(註)2009年的成績就會很爛。即使他這一年成績很爛，這也絕對不是暗示他的生涯就要結束了。註: 殺蟲王是因滾地球很多，草中的蟲可能都死光，而被取的綽號。但是，這只是表示，有時候，一個投手已經在大聯盟實實在在證明自己有不錯的身手，卻會毫無理由的讓你看到他會有一個球季完全的走下坡－令人措手不及－任何年齡都不是不可能發生。為什麼? 喂，上述的例子證明，在過去的歷史裡是可能發生的，當然就有可能再發生 ...在任何時候，任何人都有可能發生。以下共有八個回應: Raf 表示: May 27th, 2009 at 10:49 pm 請問有沒有一些研究可以說明上述的例子? 謝謝! ************************************************************************** Steve Lombardi表示: May 27th, 2009 at 10:59 pm 如果我沒記錯的話，Bill James就曾經對勝敗記錄作過一些研究。有一些投手在投出賽揚身手的20勝成績後，下個球季卻拿到接近20敗，或是成績只有6勝10敗。查詢過去的資料，我發現這些人的成績都有不只一年先發25次以上有很好的RSAA，但之後會有一年都有很爛的RSAA。 RSAA: 指平均為球隊節省的分數。 ************************************************************************* yagottagotomo1表示: May 27th, 2009 at 11:03 pm 不錯的觀點。好多人一直提到，一個不只一年投出19勝的投手不可能突然忘了怎麼投球的。但是我們看到的是因為一些傷勢或其他情況影響，是有可能發生的。 ************************************************************************** sanair 表示: May 27th, 2009 at 11:06 pm 假如這真的是無法回復的話，這真是個不好的消息。王似乎是個不會興風作浪沒有意見的傢伙 (他不是生涯很後期才學會伸卡球嗎?) 我還比較希望像Andy (Pettitte)這種吃藥作弊的人會在小王之前突然投得很糟生涯從此終止呢! *************************************************************************** Steve Lombardi表示: May 27th, 2009 at 11:13 pm "不會忘了怎麼投球"的話真的是挺有趣的。我可以認同這句話適用在去年Mussina身上。但是，王呢? 他有真正成為一個"投手"嗎? 說得更清楚點，他不就是個一直猛丟伸卡球直到你被解決為止的人嗎? 假如，這個形容是對的話，那說真的，他又是會了什麼東西，是不可能忘記的? *************************************************************************** Evan3457表示: May 27th, 2009 at 11:46 pm 小王的伸卡球今晚是更好了一點，雖然這是因為遇上了選球能力不好自由揮擊的游騎兵隊也幫了不少忙。至少這在往正確的方向走了。哦...幾乎忘了...我們攻頂了。 **************************************************************************** Raf表示: May 28th, 2009 at 12:15 am Bill James真的作過這研究嗎? 我想他知道得比較清楚。 *************************************************************************** Jake1表示: May 28th, 2009 at 8:37 am 或許小王若是真正學會了怎麼投球，而不是一直仰賴他94英哩的伸卡球，現在他就能夠作調整，同時度過這個困境了。 **************************************************************************** http://waswatching.com/category/possible-bad-news/ What Went Wang? Possible Bad News Steve Lombardi Today, Peter Abraham wrote: Chien-Ming Wang has pitched horrifically this season. Brutally, terribly, awfully. Let’s get that right out of the way. But he was 46-15 with a 3.74 ERA before he hurt his foot last June and has never given the Yankees one ounce of trouble. He shows up, does his job and has been a model teammate. This is all true. And, to be candid, in a comment elsewhere on this blog today, I shared that I never saw “this” coming for Wang this season. But, then again, after his 1991 and 1992 seasons, in April of 1993, did anyone see “it” coming for then 23-year old Steve Avery? More recently, after his 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons, in April of last year, did anyone see “it” coming for then 30-year old Aaron Harang? After his 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 seasons, in April of 2006, did anyone see “it” coming for then 27-year old Mark Buehrle? After his 1992, 1993 and 1994 seasons, in April of 1995, did anyone see “it” coming for then 29-year old Ken Hill? After his 2001, 2002 and 2003 seasons, in April of 2004, did anyone see “it” coming for then 29-year old Matt Morris? After his 1985, 1986, 1987 and 1988 seasons, in April of 1989, did anyone see “it” coming for then 27-year old Danny Jackson? After his 2001, 2002 and 2003 seasons, in April of 2004, did anyone see it coming for then 25-year old Joel Pineiro? After his 1997 and 1998 seasons, in April of 1999, did anyone see it coming for then 26-year old Justin Thompson? If you’re being honest, the answers to all these questions is probably “no. ” (And, for the record, these are just some recent cases where a pitcher has hit the skids where it seemed like that could not happen to him, at that point. There are many, many, more that can be cited.) Now, this is NOT to say that Worm Killer Wang will have a terrible 2009. And, even if he does, this is NOT to imply that his career is over. But, this does suggest that, sometimes, for no reason that you could see coming, a pitcher, who appears to be a solid and proven commodity at the big league level, can have a season where it is ALL DOWNHILL for him - and out of the blue - at an age where it doesn’t seem probable (to happen). Why? Hey, as these cases prove, it’s happened in the past and it can happen again…at any time, to anyone. 8 Responses to “What Went Wang?” ****************************************************************** Raf Says: May 27th, 2009 at 10:49 pm Are these some of the names featured in the “wipeout” study? Thanks… ******************************************************************** Steve Lombardi Says: May 27th, 2009 at 10:59 pm Not that I recall. The James study focused more on wins and losses, IIRC. Guys who went from 20-win and CYA type seasons to seasons the next year where they lost close to 20, or went something like 6-10. These are all guys that I found, using the CBE, who had more than one year - and sometimes several - in a row with more than 25 GS and nice RSAA totals who then had a year where they tanked, in terms of RSAA. ************************************************************************* yagottagotomo1 Says: May 27th, 2009 at 11:03 pm Good point. People keep saying that multiple 19 game winners dont just forget how to pitch. We see that with the help of some injuries or other circumstances, it could happen. ************************************************************************** sanair Says: May 27th, 2009 at 11:06 pm If this really is point of no return, it’s quite a sad story. Wang seemed like a no-sense fella who didn’t make waves, and who worked hard at his craft (didn’t he pick-up the sinker pretty late in his career?). I’d rather see a roider/cheater like Andy have a career come to an abrupt and awful end before Wang. *************************************************************************** Steve Lombardi Says: May 27th, 2009 at 11:13 pm The “don’t forget how to pitch” notion is an interesting one. I could see how that might apply to someone like Mussina, last year. But, Wang? Was he ever “a pitcher”? Or, more so, someone who just poured sinkers with gas down your throat until you were a beaten batter? And, if the latter is true, then, did he know anything, really, that cannot be forgotten? *************************************************************************** Evan3457 Says: May 27th, 2009 at 11:46 pm Wang’s sinker looked much better tonight, though the Rangers’ free swinger may have helped some. It’s a step in the right direction, at least. Oh…almost forgot…1st place!!! **************************************************************************** Raf Says: May 28th, 2009 at 12:15 am Steve Lombardi wrote: The James study focused more on wins and losses, IIRC. Really? I would’ve thought he knew better *************************************************************************** Raf Says: May 28th, 2009 at 12:19 am Last year, or the year before? Moose’s FIP was reasonable @ 4.01 in 2007 when he posted a 5.15 ERA. *************************************************************************** Jake1 Says: May 28th, 2009 at 8:37 am maybe if Wang ever learned how to actually pitch instead of relying on a 94mph sinker he would be able to make adjustments and get thru this. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.225.153.203 ※ 編輯: leddy 來自: 61.225.153.203 (05/29 00:22)

推 dhc830830:在怎麼中肯你都會被噓,因為這邊是NYY版 05/29 00:24

推 jayin07:這篇你還真的翻哦XDDDDDDD 尤其是下面 05/29 00:25

推 Sechslee:1F想引戰? 05/29 00:26

推 Barbarian123:突然發現攻頂了... 05/29 00:27

→ Sechslee:王板的水桶還沒解 orz 05/29 00:27

推 Ornatus:RSAA爆掉的意思是說出來混的有一天要還的嗎?總有一天會爆 05/29 00:31

推 hcbd:聽球評說岡爺都去獨立聯盟了..... 05/29 00:32

→ ZMTL:那些例子後來有恢復嘛? 05/29 00:40

推 leondemon:Igawa.. 跑來美國就突然不會投球..... 唉.... 05/29 00:40

推 Tyrone:有好幾個現役球員呀不難查 05/29 00:40

推 jdtrue:所以RSAA是個會回歸平均的數值嗎？ 05/29 00:41

→ cha122977:岡爺可是拿過CY的... 05/29 00:44

推 Ornatus:一些美國鄉民寫的真好笑,不會投球,只會投伸卡球,如果這樣 05/29 00:45

→ Ornatus:就能拿到19勝....... 05/29 00:45

→ Ornatus:carmona今年也是爆了,只是爆的不夠徹底 05/29 00:46

→ birdy590:美國的嘴砲鄉民不會比台灣的高明 05/29 00:46

推 ZMTL:大概翻了下那些例子，幾乎都是3.炸到5.的恩.. 05/29 00:46

→ agoodjob:所以前兩年都是幻覺？而且什麼叫做不會投球指會頭伸卡球? 05/29 00:47

→ leddy:那可是blogger本人中肯的意見耶! one-trick pony,就一招啊!! 05/29 00:47

→ jdtrue:其實這篇只是要說there is nothing impossible吧... 05/29 00:50

→ birdy590:不要講別的, 王開季狀況不好的原因不是很明顯嗎? 05/29 00:50

→ birdy590:一個將近十個月沒有正式比賽的投手, 也沒有像樣的復健賽 05/29 00:51

推 pase139:agoodjob的推文讓人看得很累 05/29 00:51

→ ZMTL:整年大休沒引響是不可能的，問題在怎麼回復? 能不能回復? 05/29 00:51

→ leddy:他只是要向彼得胖靠腰，老子看了那麼多年，沒什麼不可能的.. 05/29 00:51

→ birdy590:在這方面的調整, 春訓的效果恐怕也不會比小聯盟 rehab 好 05/29 00:52

→ ZMTL:什麼時候回復 05/29 00:52

→ agoodjob:那你就不要看我的推文免得讓自己累著了！ 05/29 00:52

→ leddy:因為彼得胖會看他的blog 05/29 00:52

→ birdy590:這能叫"莫名其妙"? 故意忘記之前發生的事情才是奇怪 05/29 00:52

→ birdy590:王的開季一點也不奇怪, 把沒有確實完成復健的投手推上去 05/29 00:53

推 decorum:若沒恢復的話，今天的Kris Benson就是借鏡，1996選秀狀元 05/29 00:53

→ birdy590:都可能有這種結果, 小聯盟都有能力爆大聯盟當然更不用說 05/29 00:53

推 scarad:爛三場不見得會爛一整季...假使Wang現在開始的ERA<3 05/29 00:54

→ scarad:即使最後total ERA>5 還是要說他爛一整季嗎..數據上的盲點 05/29 00:54

→ scarad:況且我還蠻期待看到Wang滑球長出來的 05/29 00:54

→ birdy590:請記住他不是去年投完一整季, 今年開季"無預警"突然下滑 05/29 00:55

推 jdtrue:數據只是把過往狀況量化的一個指標罷了當然不能看數據就 05/29 00:55

推 miumiu8271:哎!看看就好..搞不好明年小王會MOOSE上身拿20勝勒... 05/29 00:55

→ cha122977:快三十了是能期待(畢竟以前靠滑球吃飯) 但別太期待.. 05/29 00:56

→ jdtrue:下什麼定論直接看他的投球最實際 05/29 00:56

→ decorum:不過王心思單純，球場外讓他分心的事情很少，天分努力都夠 05/29 00:56

→ birdy590:類似情形根本就是每年都在發生的常態, 有什麼好奇怪的 05/29 00:58

推 tim1112:sanair的流言有引戰的嫌疑科科 05/29 00:59

推 lovejeely:你真的幹了XDDDDDD 05/29 01:12

推 poverty:sanair提到的不是可能性很高了麼？ 05/29 01:23

推 NinJa0o0:最重要的是希望小王保有信心跟實力! 05/29 01:34

推 lovecmgirls:我大概懂那些美國酸民的意思，說王不會"投球"只會伸卡 05/29 02:32

→ lovecmgirls:意思大概是說像其他好投手好了，也許哪天球速降了 05/29 02:33

→ lovecmgirls:球威差了，但是他們可以靠控球經驗以及變化球的搭配 05/29 02:33

→ lovecmgirls:來生存，而不是像王一但伸卡變差了就整個爆的不像樣 05/29 02:35

推 tim1112:樓上的話用一句話可概括:酸民閒王不夠強 05/29 02:35

→ Velcro666:小王自我調整的能力真的不很優手常常開掉要人提醒 05/29 02:38

→ Velcro666:不過希望他經歷這次的挫折與考驗能明白自己的弱點加強 05/29 02:39

推 Sechslee:嘛... 我不懂指出弱點就被稱為酸民是什麼意思 05/29 02:42

→ birdy590:這裡是大聯盟耶, 容許球員犯錯的 margin 非常的低 05/29 02:47

→ birdy590:主要武器不靈光是很大的打擊, 其它方式很有可能補不起來 05/29 02:47

推 zzsqoo:大聯盟很現實太多人在後面等著機會爬上去 05/29 04:11

推 tenka92417:王的球路真的不夠多啊,伸卡一垮就被打爆了..... 05/29 06:41

→ agoodjob:所以RJ的球路很多？ 05/29 07:34

推 appshjkli:嗯,真的翻了,要是轉去王版就更猛了XDDD 05/29 07:44

推 ZMTL:嘛.. 真的有轉在王版 XD 05/29 08:17

推 swimbert:我就知道秋大是好樣的 05/29 08:47

推 accprote:所以Ryan靠直球吃飯也被打暴 05/29 10:03

→ sycc:原來"投伸卡球"不是投球XDDDDD 那幹嘛不叫MO別再依賴Cutter.. 05/29 10:03

推 stanly:板主找了好多數據來唱雖王耶 05/29 10:29

推 kevinloo:樓上不要亂扣帽子 05/29 10:43

推 Sunofgod:看到表示我第一反應就是成龍表示:... 05/29 10:57

→ Sunofgod:習慣了反正這邊就盡量把王弄得很普通王迷很該死科 05/29 10:58

→ Sunofgod:都還跑去王版宣導了呢愛酸又愛看呵 05/29 10:58

推 xven:愛酸又愛看是再說誰阿?? 我有點搞不清楚了 05/29 11:33

推 siliver:就自婊咩,不意外. 05/29 11:37

推 agoodjob:樓上 XDDDD 05/29 11:39

→ siliver:agoodjob你別這麼急著對號入座啊. 05/29 11:42

→ agoodjob:加油啦！哈哈～ 05/29 11:42

→ siliver:你的確蠻需要加油的,先去把小王的球路威力特性搞懂再來嘿 05/29 11:44

推 edisoncool:siliver在酸王的時候就會馬上出現喔好巧喔 05/29 12:27

推 laechan:最近的例子就是襪隊的北基特 05/29 13:11

推 k7system:推用心翻譯 05/29 19:06

→ siliver:我在某些人被害妄想症發作時就會出現喔 ^.< 05/29 20:15

推 sunnei:派派躺著也中槍... 囧 05/29 22:56