Is Jorge Posada a Bad Game Caller?

[abc12812 ()]

http://tinyurl.com/nqdl2t


One of the topics that has been coming up this season is Jorge Posada's
pitch-calling and how it is a problem. Most of the analysis on this is based
on comparing the Yankees' ERA with Posada behind the plate versus his backups.

Any analysis based on that premise is deeply flawed, because it assumes that
the distribution of innings between Posada and his backups include the same
pitchers in the same percentages, which is obviously not realistic or true.
Also, ERA can be impacted by things that are not directly in control of the
batter or pitcher.

That doesn't mean we can't look at the question, it just means that to do it
right a little more rigorous work needs to be done.

In the 2008 Hardball Times Annual, Tango Tiger wrote an article titled With
or Without You. The article was focused on Derek Jeter and basically looks at
how the team did with or without Jeter for the period in question. Without
getting into the Jeter/defense thing again, the methodology that Tango used
is ingenious and can be applied in a lot of different ways, even if we must
acknowledge it is slightly limited due to sample size issues and random
noise. Retrosheet's play by play files allow us to do the WOWY studies for a
lot of different criteria.

So let's take a look at Posada versus his backups using the WOWY methodolgy.
Here are the steps that I followed to do this.

1) Pull in all Yankee Retrosheet play by play data from 2000-2008. Although I
have the data to go back past that, I think nine years is enough data,
especially if we are trying to ascertain that there is a skill component
here. It's probably folly to assume that a player's skill remains static in
any area over nine seasons, much less more than that. Since 2009 play by play
data is not availabe in an easily parseable format right now, I can't look at
that.

2) Separate the data into batters faced with Posada catching versus everyone
else.

3) MATCHING INNINGS. This is the key part of this analysis. If you don't
ensure that you are weighing the contributions of each pitcher similarly, you
are not controlling for possible selective bias, like a good pitcher having a
personal catcher. To match innings, I simply pro-rated the larger sample to
the smaller sample. For example, Mike Mussina faced 998 batters without
Posada catching and 2183 with him, so Mussina's stats for both splits get
pro-rated to 998 batters.

4) Add it all up and see what comes out.

First, here are the straight totals before matching innings. I am looking at
the data in terms of how opposing hitters have done versus the Yankee
pitchers, so the numbers you see are the numbers they allowed to hitters.


Here are the splits with Posada and others for every pitcher who has pitched
for the Yankees from 2000-2008.


Matching those innings up, we get the following totals.


There's a difference there. The next question we have to ask is if the
difference is statistically significant. I'm just going to look at wOBA.


Posada's actual performance is a little worse than one standard deviation
from his backups. The difference in runs given a wOBA of .332 vs. .324 over a
full team season (4100 PA outs) is in the area of 30 runs. That's pretty
significant. I'm not sure I trust these numbers based on Keith Woolner's far
more exhaustive study that showed game-calling was NOT a statistically
significant skill. But that's what these numbers say.

I wouldn't call this proof that Posada is a bad game-caller, but it is
possible evidence that he may be worse than average in that regard.

--
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◆ From: 140.112.5.3
推 koting:為什麼投教沒事? 一直怪選手呢?
推 upscom:有內幕嗎...
→ abc12812:沒什麼內幕吧，這篇文章只是說Posada配球可能不太好
推 kimifort:內幕就是...今年跟他合作的投手都投不太好...
推 minga0102:打預防針?
推 rockyegg:因為他們相信投手教練說的 投手狀況都很好 所以怪捕手
推 sherlockt:心機不夠深嗎 XD
推 cardfat:這篇是波波跟其他捕手比較 跟他搭配的投手的wOBA/CERA/FIP
→ cardfat:Posada: .332/4.36/4.34 其他捕.324/4.13/4.07
→ cardfat:投教好不好是另一回事 但是Posada的配球可能不怎麼樣
推 nnnnnnn:感覺很少  高快球
推 Eddie23:我覺得如果波波那麼不好的話 怎能當主戰捕手那麼多年呢？
→ Eddie23:所以怪波波有點扯...><
推 alexxlee:打擊?
→ DLCSEA:輸球總要找一個出來怪  總不可能罵全部
推 mydreamcome:波波打擊超強  當捕手也不錯阿  是絕佳的選手
推 eigawa:都生涯末期了才在嫌這個 擺明就是沒話找話講啊
推 jdtrue:放眼全聯盟有幾個可以拿來當DH的C呢  有好用不錯了
→ gidapops:因為打擊啊 配球掉的分 他能打回來 還有多
→ sherlockt:因為他有演六人行   嗯
推 twooone:XD
推 NPLNT:不過好像有些投手不喜歡跟Jorge配耶 像Randy不就不要嗎
推 minga0102:波波差的不是配球 是方向感 打WW2之前的訓練營一直迷路
推 hiokchi:我是路人 純推sherlockt XD
推 decorum:波波比較強勢，遇到態度一樣強硬的投手，難免會有摩擦
→ decorum:RJ和Moose都不願意和他搭配，年輕的投手自然得聽老鳥的
推 sidney78:可是老的 也有喜歡跟波波配的吧~~ 配球真的是超奧秘的XD
推 tlw0709:捕手跟投手教練 待的年份一比也看得出來吧...
→ tlw0709:姑且不論合不合 他都配那麼多年了也沒慘到那樣 卻怪他??
推 decorum:派帥和波波是老戰友，一起成長的，老默契啦
推 decorum:隔壁的瓦哥有一次和菜鳥一直意見不合，最後讓菜鳥自己投
→ decorum:立刻挨轟，瓦哥露出一副很賤的表情，超好笑
→ SRoach:樓上是說八釦子那場嗎 袁公有很配合鏡頭在幫他OS XD
推 minga0102:瓦哥只要沒人在壘上他都沒壓力的 有人在壘上他就要祈禱
推 accprote:能當DH的C:V-Mart,Mauer,Piazza,I-Rod.的確是不多啦..
→ accprote:Napoli也不錯,TEX的Salty跟Teagarden養起來也是很威
推 cbolong:I-ROD來洋基的打擊....
推 head109:Posada:怪我囉1
推 goodsnk:投手也投不進去阿
推 roea68roea68:他當捕手其實不算好.. 打擊強就是了
推 siliver:不算好??喔,大聯盟近代的強打捕手原來是不夠好,科科.
推 viro72:人家說的不算好是指防守 你講打擊..雞同鴨講嗎
→ siliver:喔??他哪個字提到防守??恩??
推 milerful:POSADA當主戰捕手明顯是因為打擊啊 不然摸二哥守備強多了
→ siliver:今天會說一個捕手好不好當然是看整體評價啊.
→ Robbins:Posada 是洋基史上第三佳的補手。
推 purification:他的語意其實看起來就是那樣阿
推 fentanyl945:我怎麼記得有篇報導是說波波是攻擊型捕手，配球強調攻
→ fentanyl945:擊對方弱點。而不是依投手當天狀況來調整？
推 asdf121250:干他X事...干投教X事...
推 philluke:擺明就是在講防守  後面不都講打擊強了  到底誰在跳針
推 ZMTL:那句話我的解讀是: Posada當捕手整體不算好，不過打擊強
→ ZMTL:嘛，每個人有不同的解讀方式，沒講清楚那會被誤會也正常
→ ZMTL:也只有roea68知道他推的那句到底想說啥...
推 micotosai:所以不只王迷會嫌波波的配球囉?
→ leocheng:與其怪波波配球遜 還不如說投教調整夠慢的了投手都壞球魂
推 viro72:那我解讀是 防守拉低了他捕手的評價 他也承認打擊強
→ viro72:但是後面的人卻從原意上本來就說的打擊強來反駁他
→ viro72:看那推文 大部分都能理解不算好的理由吧 ╮(╯_╰)╭
→ viro72:一個好的捕手 只要有棒子就可以了嗎?
推 killua1:Posada:怪我囉......
推 mydreamcome:波波:安打跟全壘打很多都是我貢獻的找我當戰犯>"<凸
推 miumiu8271:現在才說波波配球有問題..那以前是怎樣...?
推 cccwei:可以伸一下上面那個很賤表情的影片嗎?  XD
→ eatpeanut:很奇怪 火都燒不到投教....
推 HXZ:不講我還沒發現 真的有演六人行...XD
推 usapie:siliver跳針
→ siliver:那麻煩說一下我哪邊跳針好咩??科科,還是只會等沒人出來吠?
推 ZMTL:不要跟我說一個只有棒子整體不算好的捕手可以待NY那麼久
推 chris0215:最好是用待的久不久來看
推 ppoll2:=   =...一篇表述  各自解讀...
推 mightymouse:他好不好我不知,我只知他蹲捕時我們拿了三連霸
推 youga:怎麼有人跳針還一直吠?
推 iluy:RJ:就已經是二選一了還要我搖第二次
推 Poleaxe:我是路人 純推sherlockt XD