[討論] 2009 AL East Preview

[appshjkli (小小折耳貓)]

  2009 AL East Preview (Featuring Pete Abraham)

  http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/03/2009_al_east_pr.php

  I am reporting from Ft. Myers and heading over to City of Palms Park this

  afternoon, so it only seems fitting that we would have a look at the AL East

  today. Last week we previewed the NL East.

  To recap:

  Here’s the deal. For hitters we take PECOTA and the four projection systems

  on Fangraphs. Fangraphs, by the way, is awesome. They are doing terrific,

  differentiated, value-add work and if you are a regular reader of Baseball

  Prospectus and/or The Hardball Times, you should add Fangraphs to your

  favorites as well. Anyway, we average all five of these projection systems to

  give you a sense for how the number crunchers see the players performing this

  season.

  For pitchers, in the interest of keeping things simple and consistent, we go

  with the three projection systems readily available on the Fangraphs player

  pages. No PECOTA because the data presentation was not as compatible with the

  numbers we wanted to display.

  We went with depth charts from ESPN.com. Some of the players penciled in

  below will not be starting, and some might not break camp. But we figured

  this was a pretty good way to go. As we draw closer to Opening Day with the

  other divisions, we will look to implement as accurate of an indication as

  possible with regard to who figures to start at each position.


  Chipping in from Baseball Analysts today with commentary is Marc Hulet,

  contributor here and also at Fangraphs. We are also very thankful to have

  Pete Abraham, Yankees beat writer for the The Journal News.


  Catcher


                   AVG   OBP   SLG
  Navarro, D.     .267  .334  .389

  Varitek, J.     .236  .328  .390

  Posada, J.      .273  .366  .448

  Barajas, R.     .243  .303  .392

  Wieters, M.     .298  .382  .499


  Pete: I think Jorge Posada will bounce back this year offensively. Throwing

  was never his strength, so he just needs to be able to keep runners a little

  honest. I wonder how much we'll see of Matt Wieters. It doesn't make much

  sense for Baltimore to start his clock yet.


  Sully: Wieters in the Minors would be an absolute mockery. After he wins the

  MVP this season, I fully expect him to fix Healthcare and restore economic

  prosperity in America.


  First Base


                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Pena, C.        .254  .370  .500

  Youkilis, K.    .283  .377  .474

  Teixeira, M.    .290  .383  .525

  Overbay, L.     .265  .343  .419

  Huff, A.        .279  .340  .471


  Pete: Mark Teixeira will start slow; he always seems to. But will be bounce

  back in New York? That'll be interesting to watch. I don't think Kevin

  Youkilis is as good as he was last year. Carlos Pena, either.


  Marc: The addition of Teixeira to the AL East obviously has huge

  implications. It will be interesting to see if Youkilis can repeat his

  stellar 2008 season, or if he reverts to his still-productive-but-not-a-star

  former self. I have to disagree with Peter. Offensively, I think Pena will be

  OK; he's still in his prime and should drive in 100 again.


  Sully: Tex is hands down the best in the division and I have to agree with

  Pete. Youk's slugging jump last year was a blip, and not a new established

  norm. He's a really nice player, but not a perennial MVP candidate type.


  Second Base

                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Iwamura, A.     .270  .346  .389

  Pedroia, D.     .307  .368  .456

  Cano, R.        .292  .331  .450

  Hill, A.        .277  .334  .408

  Roberts, B.     .282  .359  .424


  Pete: I like Brian Roberts. Not sure I like him for four more years and $40

  million. It's too bad Robinson Cano doesn't have the desire to be great that

  Dustin Pedroia does. The Yankees thought they did the right thing with his

  deal last year and then it blew up on them. He's a big project for Joe

  Girardi.


  Marc: This position is definitely a strength in the division, with Pedroia,

  Roberts and Cano. If Aaron Hill is fully recovered from the concussion he

  suffered last season, you can add his name to that list too. Cano should

  definitely rebound; he's taken his lumps in the media and has something to

  prove.


  Sully: That four year extension for Roberts was hard to figure for where

  Baltimore currently stands in the success cycle.


  Third Base


                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Longoria, E.    .273  .347  .499

  Lowell, M.      .275  .336  .444

  Rodriguez, A.   .291  .387  .548

  Rolen, S.       .263  .342  .434

  Mora, M.        .271  .337  .431


  Pete: (ed note: submitted pre-injury) A-Rod loves the drama and will have a

  huge year. Of course he'll then hit .052 in the playoffs. If he starts slow,

  however, the fans could really get ugly. They're already mad about the price

  of tickets. I'll be curious to see how Mike Lowell takes Boston trying to get

  rid of him all winter.


  Marc: The injury to A-Rod changes the dynamics of this position with vague

  reports on exactly when he'll be back. The Yankees definitely did not have a

  fallback plan for the position. I'm betting 2009 is the year Mora plays like

  he's 37 years old.


  Sully: Lowell's a pro and will handle the situation accordingly. So long as

  his fielding does not drop off, he will be a very valuable player once again.


  Shortstop

                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Bartlett, J.    .274  .332  .366

  Lowrie, J.      .265  .346  .410

  Jeter, D.       .299  .367  .419

  McDonald, J.    .231  .278  .312

  Izturis, C.     .259  .310  .325


  Pete: It speaks poorly of the shortstops in this division that Derek Jeter is

  still the guy you want over any of the rest of them. It's amazing how the Red

  Sox can't find a decent answer there. I'd like to point out that I once

  selected John McDonald to an American Legion All-Star team in Connecticut and

  gave him a Norwich Bulletin t-shirt.


  Marc: Cesar Izturis should impress defensively in Baltimore but his offense

  will be abysmal. If Jed Lowrie wrestles the full-time job away from Lugo in

  Boston than the club will likely be better off offensively, but I like Lowrie

  a lot as a super-sub. The position is extremely weak offensively in Toronto

  with McDonald and Marco Scutaro, who is going to start regressing soon at the

  age of 33. It's hard to believe Toronto used No. 1 draft picks on college

  shortstops in 2002 and 2003 and never did end up with a long-term solution at

  the position.


  Sully: With defense factored, will Lowrie be better than Jeter this season?


  Left Field

                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Crawford, C.    .291  .334  .433

  Bay, J.         .272  .364  .487

  Damon, J.       .279  .352  .423

  Lind, A.        .281  .330  .458

  Pie, F.         .263  .317  .410


  Pete: Johnny Damon is actually a pretty good defensive left field (well, not

  including throws). I think we're going to see some serious regression at the

  plate, however. His legs are not what they once were.


  Marc: Generally speaking, I am really looking forward to watching the young

  outfield in Baltimore play, with Felix Pie, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis

  included. Pie was a steal from Chicago and, if motivated, could be just as

  good as the other two players. Toronto could have the AL Rookie of the Year

  with Snider in left, who will share the position (and DH) with Adam Lind,

  another good, young player.


  Sully: Out of Jason Bay and Carl Crawford, I will be interested to see who

  ends up as the better player at the end of the season according to Fangraphs.

  Bay has the good stick but can't field, Crawford's offense leaves a bit to be

  desired but can track anything down in left.


  Center Field


                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Upton, B.       .279  .376  .432

  Ellsbury, J.    .293  .350  .415

  Gardner, B.     .260  .342  .359

  Wells, V.       .274  .329  .457

  Jones, A.       .274  .324  .420


  Pete: Pecota has B.J. Upton not being so special. I can't argue against the

  math, but I do think what he did in the postseason could vault him forward.

  You could see him mature every day in October. If Brett Gardner can somehow

  get a .360 OBP, he'll change the way the Yankees look. But his swing might be

  too big for that.


  Marc: I am a big Jacoby Ellsbury fan. He's going to really step up his game

  this season. The position in New York is thin... hmm, just like third base.

  There are a lot of cracks in the roster considering the payroll. Those

  pitchers better stay healthy. Count me as someone who thinks Upton is going

  to breakout in a big way this season.


  Sully: We have consensus on Upton. I think he goes off in '09.


  Right Field


                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Joyce, M.       .247  .324  .448

  Drew, J.        .270  .381  .460

  Nady, X.        .278  .332  .462

  Rios, A.        .285  .338  .459

  Markakis, N.    .297  .378  .477


  Pete: J.D. Drew showed up hurt, which saves time. I'm surprised Brian Cashman

  didn't trade Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady. That probably speaks to Hideki

  Matsui's knees. I'll trust Tampa that Matt Joyce will help them.


  Marc: I am not sold on Joyce, and his injury definitely hurts his chances of

  making the Opening Day roster in Tampa. Can Alex Rios finally breakout

  offensively (and consistently)? Please?


  Sully: I laughed when I saw Pete and Marc's comments because I can't figure

  out why you hand Joyce a starting gig on a championship aspirant club.


  Designated Hitter

                   AVG   OBP   SLG

  Burrell, P.     .245  .368  .464

  Ortiz, D.       .281  .387  .543

  Matsui, H.      .279  .358  .442

  Snider, T.      .262  .330  .462

  Scott, L.       .261  .343  .477


  Pete: Tampa had a lot of good choices and went with Burrell. Bobby Abreu

  would have been a good fit. I think Hideki Matsui is close to finished. He

  can barely run. It's also hard to know what to make of David Ortiz given his

  health in recent years.


  Marc: Heath is definitely the big area of concern with the big two: Ortiz and

  Matsui. Will Aubrey Huff's big season of a year ago continue? I doubt it. It

  will be interesting to see how Burrell does in the AL with Tampa.


  Sully: Give me the under on Papi and the over on Luke Scott.

  Starting Pitching

                   W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA

  Shields, J.     13-9   7.23   1.89   1.18  3.70

  Kazmir, S.      10-8   9.75   3.86   1.30  3.68

  Garza, M.       10-9   6.95   3.12   1.32  3.92

  Price, D.        3-4   6.82   3.55   1.40  4.35

  Sonnanstine, A. 11-9   6.31   1.94   1.26  4.07


                   W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA

  Beckett, J.     13-8   8.25   2.32   1.21  3.68

  Matsuzaka, D.   12-7   8.35   3.96   1.33  3.75

  Lester, J.      11-8   6.85   3.45   1.37  4.00

  Wakefield, T.    9-8   5.70   3.23   1.35  4.32

  Penny, B.        8-7   5.76   3.27   1.44  4.30


                   W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA

  Sabathia, C.    15-9   8.02   2.20   1.19  3.37

  Burnett, A.     13-9   8.77   3.45   1.31  3.81

  Wang, C.        11-6   4.63   2.79   1.37  3.96

  Pettitte, A.    11-10  6.59   2.69   1.41  4.31

  Chamberlain, J.  6-3   9.60   3.36   1.24  3.25


                   W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA

  Halladay, R.    15-12  6.54   1.76   1.17  3.37

  Litsch, J.      10-10  5.40   2.36   1.29  4.07

  Purcey, D.       6-7   7.27   3.63   1.40  4.52

  Richmond, S.     5-6   6.43   2.89   1.39  4.57

  Janssen, C.      3-3   5.82   2.59   1.31  3.85


                   W-L    K/9   BB/9   WHIP   ERA

  Guthrie, J.      9-9   5.98   2.97   1.33  4.09

  Uehara, K.       ---------------

  Waters, M.       6-8   5.51   4.17   1.55  5.12

  Hill, R.         6-6   7.68   4.07   1.38  4.25

  Liz, R.          6-7   7.34   5.05   1.58  5.30


  Pete: The Yankees could be overwhelming and they have Phil Hughes in reserve.

  Boston took too many chances. Tampa was freakishly healthy last season.


  Marc: New York is the beast in the starting pitching department, obviously. I

  can't see the A.J. Burnett deal working out in the end; he'll start strong

  and be dominant early, but the history of inconsistencies and injuries is

  sure to come back and bite. Boston's depth at starting pitcher is impressive.


  Sully: Sort of like San Francisco's offense heading into last season, I am

  nothing short of astounded at how bad Baltimore's pitching looks. Of course

  San Fran wasn't the historically bad lineup I thought they would be so maybe

  there is hope for that O's staff.


  Relief Pitching

                  K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA

  Percival, T.   7.42   4.06   1.29   3.94

  Wheeler, D.    7.81   3.03   1.23   3.63

  Balfour, G.   10.82   2.56   1.23   3.12

                  K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA

  Papelbon, J.   9.70   1.99   1.02   2.49

  Okajima, H.    8.08   3.08   1.22   3.36

  Masterson, J.  7.60   3.76   1.33   3.75


                  K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA

  Rivera, M.     8.33   1.71   1.04   2.67

  Marte, D.      8.85   3.87   1.32   3.65

  Bruney, B.     8.24   5.21   1.46   4.09


                  K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA

  Ryan, B.       9.09   3.85   1.27   3.45

  Downs, S.      7.36   3.47   1.30   3.54

  League, B.     6.33   3.48   1.39   4.02


                  K/9   BB/9   WHIP    ERA

  Sherrill, G    9.17   4.45   1.35   3.76

  Ray, C.        7.98   3.54   1.27   3.77

  Johnson, J.    6.10   3.62   1.44   4.32


  Pete: The Red Sox made some smart moves here. Don't sleep on Brian Bruney of

  the Yankees. He's not as colorful as Joba Chamberlain but he could be every

  bit as effective.


  Marc: Mariano Rivera is a robot. I am convinced of that; he'll still be

  dominating the AL East in 15 years. Baltimore will be helped by getting Chris

  Ray back (Tommy John surgery). The closer role could be a weak spot in Tampa,

  as well as Toronto - if B.J. Ryan cannot regain some consistency.


  Sully: Personally, I think Bruney's walk numbers will plague him. Justin

  Masterson will be one to watch this year.


  Bench


  Pete: The Yankees treat the bench like an ashtray in a $100,000 car. It's

  there but they really don't pay much attention to it.


  Marc: New York's bench will be almost non-existent. The Rays club has the

  best depth on the bench, with the likes of Ben Zobrist, Willy Aybar, Gabe

  Gross, etc. Toronto should have a lot of versatility. The Kevin Millar

  addition is growing on me, as long as it doesn't take at-bats away from Adam

  Lind and Travis Snider.


  Sully: Rocco Baldelli, Josh Bard, Julio Lugo....Boston does a nice bench.

  Who are the awards candidates from the AL East?


  Pete:

  MVP: Upton

  Cy Young: Matsuzaka

  Rookie: Price


  Marc: I like Snider as the AL RoY (followed by David Price). C.C. has to be

  given mention as a Cy Young candidate, as does Halladay - although he'll get

  forgotten about by a lot of people when Toronto has a terrible season. AL MVP

  sleeper: Nick Markakis.


  Sully: Sabathia for the Cy, Teixeira for MVP, Price for ROY.


  Any surprises this year?

  Pete: I think the Blue Jays could lose 90 games They have a chance to be

  dreadful.


  Marc: If the Yankees continue to have injury woes, the depth is not there to

  patch the holes. Even with the starting rotation, I can see them finishing

  third in the division... but more likely they'll be in second place.


  Sully: I am with Pete. Toronto is going to be horrendous.

  Predictions?

  Pete:

  1. Yankees

  2. Red Sox

  3. Rays

  4. Orioles

  5. Blue Jays

  Marc:

  1. Boston

  2. New York

  3. Tampa

  4. Baltimore

  5. Toronto

  Sully: As I get ready to head over to the Red Sox-Marlins game, is it any

  surprise that I am with Marc here?

  =====

  Special thanks to Pete for taking time out of his busy schedule. NL Central

  is up next week...


--
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◆ From: 118.160.47.196
推 meier0112:一樣比誰DL多,現在洋基處於領先中
※ 編輯: appshjkli       來自: 118.160.47.196       (03/08 15:23)
推 jayin07:O's：時機若對，我第一個把Wieters升上來
推 royalray:恩!趕快假裝看的懂!!
推 YHank:洋基目前讓一隻車
推 kaku216:讓一隻車XDDDDDD這樣還打的贏就太屌了
推 OoyaoO:洗完澡來翻一下 這季目標翻10篇
推 loloool:只有CC和好樂迪被看好有15勝...美東的SP有那麼慘
推 OoyaoO:慘不慘不是看勝敗吧 ERA才是實績
→ OoyaoO:雖然勝敗是人生＝3＝