[洋基] More questions about Joba

[leddy (耿秋)]

對Joba有更多的問題

來源: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot

By Rob Neyer

July 11, 2009 4:31 PM

   就在Joba Chamberlain 10日晚上的先發投得搖搖欲墜之後，沒錯，再一次，很多人
問了很多問題；紐約時報的Tyler Kepner就是其中之一。

　　另外一個就是Peter Abraham，以下是他的報導：

*****************************************************************************
    根據the Elias Sports Bureau，Joba Chamberlain生涯前29次的先發，只有10次先
    發有勝敗記錄(7勝3敗)，這是大聯盟史上前29次先發勝敗記錄最少的投手。我不確定
    要如何解讀這項記錄，但是我和各位的想法一樣。

    這也說明了為何從六月一日開始，Joba只拿到一勝且ERA是5.05，他表示："真沮喪，
    我讓我的隊友失望了。也覺得有點不好意思。但這一天過後，我們還有半季的時間可
　  以讓戰蹟更好，反正你也不可能改變過去的成績。"

    --中間略--

    我也有感到他的隊友已經厭倦了Joba那種"嗯，其實我投出相當不錯"的球路威力以及
    一堆像電影"百萬金臂"裡Nuke LaLoosh說的陳腔爛調。當洋基球員就要負責，同時看
　  重結果，而不在意你夠不夠努力。其實有誰不努力呢。

    Chamberlain表示: "你必須要投得拼盡氣力，但是明天的大陽還是會出來，我也依然
    還會是以前相同的那個人。"

    嗯，太陽在3A的Scranton也一樣出來。同樣的洋基隊也不可能每次都容得下一個只能
    投五局的投手

******************************************************************************

    嘿嘿，太陽在3A的Scranton也一樣會出來。敗給你了，先生。

    Joab本季前17次的先發。我們詳列他的每次先發到底投了幾局:

投0-1局: 1次
投1-3局: 1次
投4-5局: 7次
投6-8局: 8次

    幾乎有一半他的先發，Joba投了至少6局。沒錯，他近三次的先發都沒有投超過5又
1/3局。但是現在我們還沒辦法斷定他就是個五局的投手。這不是說現在沒什麼好擔憂的。
簡單來說，Chamberlain每局投了太多球數，也保送了太多打者。有人可能會認為有7個後
援投手的牛棚將可以容得下五局的先發投手，但似乎不是這樣。無論如何，長期來說是不
行的。

    WasWatching的Steve Lombardi表示解答很簡單；將Joba拉出先發，因為他正常的休
息四天上場先發無法成有效的先發投手(有興趣自己看他的統計，他表示休5天Joba投得
比較好)。Lombardi提出統計數字支持他的說法；Joba的三振/保送比率，在休息五天後先
發的值是休四天的值的兩倍左右。

    我真的認為這是個小樣本的問題。我們談的只是本季15次的先發(其他兩次的先發則休
息超過5天)。15次先發就不是很多的樣本。其中正常休四天其中一場先發只投了2/3局就下
場(那是因為被球打中受傷下場)。他五天後再度先發--再一次，是"正常"休息後--，然後
四局保送了四位游騎兵的打者。問題是休息的時間不夠嗎? 還是只是因為身體狀況投得有
點不穩呢? 或是因為他只是投了一些不幸運的球路呢?

    年輕的投手無法保證投出穩定的身手。這可能性是一直存在的，Joba Chamberlain也
不可能避開每五天上場投球就要受到嚴格考驗--或是設法去投出--在他面對的是世界上最
有天份的打者就能夠每次都投出六到七局。

    當然你必須要找到這類型的投手。假如你有投手有能力面對這些打者投到六到七局，
你就必須將他們找出來。就這一點而言，還沒有人知道實際的結果是什麼。不，太早把有
這樣潛值的投手放棄再放回牛棚，絕對不是什麼好事 (雖然可能值得一提的是本季Joba的
先發，洋基的戰蹟是不錯的11勝6敗)。但是現在就放棄實在太早了。特別是考慮到王建民
已經放回傷兵名單，洋基已經少掉一個先發投手的情況。

    有點耐心好不好，我洋基隊的朋友。沒人容不下你的意見，只是覺得你很沒有耐心
而已。

More questions about Joba

By Rob Neyer

July 11, 2009 4:31 PM

After Joba Chamberlain's shaky start last night -- yes, another one -- a lot
of people are asking a lot of questions; Tyler Kepner, for one.

And for another, Pete Abraham:

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Joba Chamberlain's 10 decisions (7-3)
through his first 29 career starts are the fewest in Major League history.
I'm not sure how to interpret that. But there you go.
As to what counts, Joba has one victory since June 1 and a 5.05 ERA. "It's
frustrating. I'm letting my teammates down. It's kind of embarrassing, too,”
 he said. "At the end of the day, we have the second half (of the season) to
get better. You can't change the past.”

--snip--

I'm also getting a sense that his teammates are tired of the "well, I threw
the ball pretty well” stuff and the flood of Nuke LaLoosh cliches. The
Yankees are about accountability and results, not trying hard. Anybody can
try hard.

"You have to work your tail off,” Chamberlain said. "But the sun will come
out tomorrow. I'll be the same person I was before.”

Well, the sun will come in Scranton, too. At some point the Yankees can't let
a starter go five innings every time.

Heh. The sun will come out in Scranton, too. Well played, sir.
Joba's started 17 games this season. Here's a breakdown of how deep in the
game he's gone in each:

0-1 innings: 1
1-3 innings: 1
4-5 innings: 7
6-8 innings: 8

In nearly half his starts, Joba's gone at least six innings. Granted, he's
failed to pitch more than 5-1/3 innings in each of his last three starts. But
we're yet at the point of saying that he's a five-inning pitcher. Which isn't
to say there's nothing to worry about. Simply put, Chamberlain's throwing too
many pitches per inning and walking too many batters. One might think that a
seven-man bullpen would allow for a five-inning starter, but that just
doesn't seem to be the case. Not for long, anyway.

WasWatching's Steve Lombardi says the solution is simple: get Joba out of the
rotation, because he's just not effective as a starter when he gets only four
days of rest. Lombardi's got stats to back him up; Joba's strikeout-to-walk
ratio is roughly twice as good when he's got five days of rest than when he's
got four.

I do think we're running into a sample-size problem, though. We're talking
about only 15 starts this season (the other two came with more than five days
rest). Fifteen games just isn't a lot. One of those normal-rest starts lasted
just two-thirds of an inning (because of an injury). He started again five
days later -- again, on "normal" rest -- and walked four Rangers in four
innings. Was the problem not enough rest? Was he still a little gimpy? Or did
he just make a few unfortunate pitches?

Young pitchers don't come with guarantees. The possibility's always existed,
that Joba Chamberlain wouldn't be able to withstand the every-five-days rigor
of throwing -- or trying to throw -- six or seven innings against the most
talented hitters on the planet.

You have to find out, though. If you have a pitcher who might be able to do
that, you have to find out. To this point, nobody's found anything out yet.
No, the early returns aren't good (though it's probably worth mentioning that
the Yankees are 11-6 in Joba's starts this season). But it's just too early
to give up. Particularly considering that with Chien-Ming Wang back on the
DL, the Yankees are already down a starter.

Patience, my Bronxian friends. Patience.




--
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◆ From: 61.225.152.216
→ OoyaoO:可惜-.-今年本來的計畫是四個人罩他一個的
→ OoyaoO:我真的不認為一個被定位成五號 第一年全職先發的傢伙投這樣
→ now123:結果是沙胖+AJ+1/2派  罩另外2.5個嗎？   囧
推 sony1256: 往往計畫趕不上變化，誰知道王會這樣
→ OoyaoO:叫做很糟糕
推 Thanatos:Joba那個空中飛身接球,真是江湖一絕,除了MJ外,第二個讓
→ Thanatos:我覺得人類會飛 XD
※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 61.225.152.216       (07/13 00:03)
推 lp2348:我還是覺得他投的不錯啊,是當中繼表現更驚艷!!
推 lsmking7219:還是認為他中繼佳 給大帝或宅宅一個先發的機會吧
→ OoyaoO:幹嘛要給井川先發的機會？
→ argoth:科 阿宅怎能這麼有愛
推 circadian:宅宅？阿宅還需要給機會？
→ OoyaoO:棒球版19574篇  他在3A投得普通至極 這根本是一個倒楣的失
→ OoyaoO:敗投資 註衰買到這個假貨
推 flexin:給宅宅先發....幹嘛 = =  連在3A都...沒特別突出了
推 Fanicom:井川在MLB出賽的價值，絕大部分是讓井川君回到週刊這點XD
推 scarad:我只是覺得Joba 專注度不夠 需要的時候 out pitch會出來
推 j094097:派的表現就是這樣囉 也不能要求什麼
→ scarad:但平常 就比較渙散 造成球數落後 BB多和用球數多
推 apek:沒人覺得拉阿宅上來中繼可能還不錯嗎?
推 ROCAF:阿宅投成這副鳥樣到底跟沒有國際賽歷練有沒有關係啊
→ scarad:還有一旦被得分 面對下一個打者的專注力也會跑掉 @@"
→ scarad:不的話他的stuff 應該是沒問題的 @@"
→ scarad:看他當RP的控球 跟先發真的是差一大截 理論上降球速control
→ scarad:應該要比較好阿 但是在需要的時候 contro有時候又會跑出來
→ scarad:所以我個人覺得可能是專注力的問題 XDDDD
推 argoth:我不覺得拉阿宅的RP好 農場裡有很多不錯又年輕有潛力的牛
→ argoth:拉幾個上來慢慢磨看看能不能磨出一個能接CL的好手比較好
→ yuenwwjd:醜男宅就是廢
推 Glutathione:樓上說太重了吧．．．
推 raygod:胖彼得完全就是個鄉民嘛..
推 evangelew:除了阿宅不在40人名單外  把阿宅拿去洗RP也是個選擇吧
推 dp44:不在40人名單裡很麻煩啊
推 redsnipertd:yeyagami:QQ被歪果仁打槍了
推 jayin07:Rob Neyer是個蠻威的數據頭....
→ jayin07:對了，Rob Neyer是預測像葛格這種投手活不久的其中一位
→ jayin07:stathead
推 eigawa:專注力.... 那應該怎麼辦
推 eigawa:看醫生嗎XD
推 littlecula:阿宅不用期待了...約滿了我看只能回日本吧  = ="
推 FBLZA:個人傾向 換個投教吧....
→ FBLZA:順便問一下 現在這位是吉總帶進來的?
推 shongzcwea:3A拉上來的
推 FBLZA:所以以前nyy是哪位投手在帶小張?
推 shongzcwea:小張沒記錯的話他本身完成度夠高  所以跳級跳很大
→ shongzcwea:他在小聯盟局數加起來才8X局而已
→ shongzcwea:要說有被我們的農場教練帶到  我覺得有一點牽強
推 oukeheo:現在的投教之前在馬大魚跟著吉總 他雖然當選手時待過洋基
→ oukeheo:但在洋基當教練是去年開始的吧 (如果沒記錯)
推 shongzcwea:Eiland從2000年開始就在我們家工作了  或許你記成別人
推 danny789:對一位五號先發(雖然他們是認為他是未來的Ace)成績算不錯
→ danny789:小張,IPK,休斯在MiLB都被Eiland帶過,但小張時間好像不長
推 siliver:的確,況且他到目前的成績實在說不上糟,頂多就是稱不上好.
→ siliver:況且以目前聯盟先發來講,也還在平均上下.
→ saew:有機會換投教嗎?比較想看投教換掉= =!!