[討論] Clutchness and the 2008 Yankees

[Robbins (Pathology)]

http://0rz.tw/524DL


In the previous thread, PhilRizzuto raised a question about how bad the
Yankees have been hitting this year with runners in scoring position. I
think anyone who's watched this team all season knows they've been bad
even without looking at the numbers, but since I'm a stat dork, let's look
at some stats.


First off, let's take a look at the 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout.
According to the aggregate of six different projection systems, the Yankees
projected to score 924 runs this year. Losing Alex Rodriguez for a month
and losing Jorge Posada obviously put a damper on that.


In addition, the run environment in the AL is down this year. Last year,
AL teams averaged 4.93 runs per game and hit for a line of .271/.338/.423.
This year they are averaging 4.71 runs per game and are hitting
.266/.334/.416. So that's around a 4% reduction in run scoring. The standard
deviation on the AL runs scored using last year's total of 11185 is 106 runs,
so one standard deviation in either direction gives us 4.88 runs per game to
4.98 runs per game. Two standard deviations gives us 4.84 runs to 5.02 runs
per game. So the lower AL scoring this season appears to be statistically
significant.


Rank      Team    RF/G
1        Texas    5.61
2      Detroit    5.09
3  Chicago Sox    5.01
4       Boston    5.00
5    Minnesota    4.97
6    Baltimore    4.92
7   NY Yankees    4.82  
8    LA Angels    4.73
9    Cleveland    4.66
10   Tampa Bay    4.61
11     Toronto    4.24
12 Kansas City    4.20
13     Seattle    4.12
14     Oakland    4.02


Still, the Yankees are 7th in the league in actual runs scored.


But what about the park factors you ask? Using a weighted average of
2006-2008, here's how the rankings would look (park factors from The
4 letter.com).


Rank       Team   PkAdj RF/G
1         Texas      5.39
2     Minnesota      5.30
3       Detroit      4.91
4     Tampa Bay      4.81
5   Chicago Sox      4.81
6        Boston      4.75
7     Baltimore      4.73
8    NY Yankees      4.66  
9     LA Angels      4.61
10    Cleveland      4.60
11      Toronto      4.33
12      Seattle      4.26
13      Oakland      4.23
14  Kansas City      4.14


Either way, the Yankee offense has been mediocre this year, despite
projecting to be one of the better ones in the league. They are on pace
to score 781 runs, That's a falloff of almost 200 runs from last season.


According to linear weights, the context-independent batting events that
the Yankee offense has accrued this year should total 586 runs. Using runs
created instead of linear weights says they should have scored 598. So why
have they only scored 568?


First of all, the Yankees have hit into what seems like a million double
plays. The actual number is 109, which is the fourth highest total in the
league. Adding those DPs into linear weights knocks the runs scored estimate
down by 11 runs. But getting back to the clutch thing, The Hardball Times
tracks a stat called 'clutch' coincidentally enough. Now the whole concept
of clutch is murky and hard to define, so this is just one of probably a
million different ways to measure it. Anyway, the definition of clutch they
are using is based of the 2002 version of Bill James's runs created and is
defined as:


Hits(with runners in scoring position) - (AB with RISP times BA) +
HR(with runners on base) - (AB(with runners on base) times HR)/AB).


or 請見連結裡面的公式


Clutch is expressed in terms of runs above and below average. Here's how
the Yankees rate.

Tm     Clutch
MIN      37
LAA      35
BAL      27
OAK      22
KC       20
CHA      14
CLE      14
TEX      12
DET      -9
TOR     -11
SEA     -11
BOS     -15
TB      -18
NYA     -26

美東三強基本功是美聯最差。XD


I know it's hard to believe, but yes, the Yankees are the unclutchest
(is that a word?) team in the AL this year. Here are the individuals and
their clutch rankings.


Last,    First       Tm    Lg    Pos    Clutch
Damon, Johnny       NYA    AL     LF       7
Abreu, Bobby        NYA    AL     RF       4.5
Gardner, Brett      NYA    AL     LF       3.6  他的 OPS+ 只有 8。紅襪？科科 
Christian, Justin   NYA    AL     LF       1.8
Matsui, Hideki      NYA    AL     DH       0.8
Sexson, Richie      NYA    AL     1B       0.5
Moeller, Chad       NYA    AL      C       0.4
Jeter, Derek        NYA    AL     SS       0.1
Stewart, Chris D    NYA    AL      C       0
Duncan, Shelley     NYA    AL     1B      -0.3
Posada, Jorge       NYA    AL      C      -1.2
Gonzalez, Alberto R NYA    AL     SS      -1.3
Ensberg, Morgan     NYA    AL     3B      -1.6
Cano, Robinson      NYA    AL     2B      -1.7
Nady, Xavier        NYA    AL     LF      -2.1
Molina, Jose        NYA    AL      C      -3.5
Betemit, Wilson     NYA    AL     1B      -3.9
Rodriguez, Ivan     NYA    AL      C      -5.3
Cabrera, Melky      NYA    AL     CF      -5.5  我不是最差的。
Giambi, Jason       NYA    AL     1B     -10.3
Rodriguez, Alex     NYA    AL     3B     -13.2


Now I'm not really going to get into the whole clutch hitting as a skill
thing here. Well, maybe just for a second. This is not a measure of a
player's clutch skill/ability, it's a measure of their value in the current
season. Last year, Alex Rodriguez's clutch rating was +9.8. Did Madonna
make him unclutch? In 2006 it was +3.2, in 2005 it -8.8.

這裡令我想到 Derek Jeter 與 Mariah Carey。千錯萬錯都是女人的錯？



It's definitely a problem when your two best offensive players aren't hitting
with runners in scoring position though. And how the hell is Pudge -5.3
already? He's only played in like 5 games.


If we add those clutch values to the players' position-adjusted batting runs
above replacement level here's how the players rank.


Last, First          Tm Lg Pos  PA    BA   OBP   SLG  pBRAR Clutch  Total
Damon, Johnny       NYA AL  LF 443  .322  .392  .459   26.9    7     33.9
Rodriguez, Alex     NYA AL  3B 420  .315  .402  .599   45.4  -13.2   32.2
Abreu, Bobby        NYA AL  RF 500  .287  .358  .467   19.2    4.5   23.7
Giambi, Jason       NYA AL  1B 397  .252  .393  .517   29.5  -10.3   19.2
Jeter, Derek        NYA AL  SS 499  .283  .346  .398   18.9    0.1   19.0
Matsui, Hideki      NYA AL  DH 285  .323  .404  .458   14.5    0.8   15.3
Posada, Jorge       NYA AL   C 195  .268  .364  .411   8.6    -1.2    7.4
Nady, Xavier        NYA AL  LF  58  .365  .431  .731   8.0    -2.1    5.9
Christian, Justin   NYA AL  LF  39  .278  .333  .361   1.0     1.8    2.8
Sexson, Richie      NYA AL  1B  30  .292  .400  .458   1.7     0.5    2.2
Moeller, Chad       NYA AL   C  84  .227  .310  .333   0.4     0.4    0.8
Stewart, Chris D    NYA AL   C   3  .000  .000  .000  -0.7     0     -0.7
Gardner, Brett      NYA AL  LF  68  .153  .227  .169  -4.8     3.6   -1.2
Duncan, Shelley     NYA AL  1B  65  .175  .262  .281  -2.9    -0.3   -3.2
Cano, Robinson      NYA AL  2B 461  .263  .300  .397  -3.1    -1.7   -4.8
Rodriguez, Ivan     NYA AL   C  19  .278  .316  .444   0.2    -5.3   -5.1
Gonzalez, Alberto R NYA AL  SS  58  .173  .232  .212  -3.9    -1.3   -5.2
Betemit, Wilson     NYA AL  1B 153  .253  .276  .411  -2.2    -3.9   -6.1
Ensberg, Morgan     NYA AL  3B  80  .203  .263  .243  -5.1    -1.6   -6.7
Molina, Jose        NYA AL   C 237  .230  .278  .315  -4.1    -3.5   -7.6
Cabrera, Melky      NYA AL  CF 435  .245  .299  .341  -7.9    -5.5  -13.4

這一次 Melky Cabrera 找不到敵手了。Orz


Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi's clutch performances hurt their value,
but they still have been valuable this year, just not as valuable as the
raw numbers may show. Johnny Popup isn't a bad player, but if he's your
most valuable offensive performer you probably have issues. And boy, does
Melky stink.

Melky 加油，好嗎？


Do I think clutch hitters exist? Not really, but I do think unclutch hitters
can exist, and I do think pressure can have some impact, although it's my
opinion that it's not nearly as big of a deal as it's made out to be by the
mass media. Also, this is just one definition of clutch, a different
definiton may show something totally different, so keep that in mind.


So yeah, the 2008 Yankees have been unclutch by this measure.  I'm guessing
you didn't need a blog entry to know that though.



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