[洋基] Expert analysis of the Yankee farm system

[leddy (耿秋)]

資料來源: http://0rz.tw/343SH

很長的一篇對小聯盟專家John Sickels的訪問, 翻一下大意

Expert analysis of the Yankee farm system
Posted by Ed Valentine in New York Yankees
April 9th, 2008

洋基農場的專業分析

A little something different for you Yankees’ fans today. There is intense,
increasing interest in following the prospects in the team’s minor league
system, and with that in mind I reached out to get you guys some expert
information.

    現在洋基迷和過去有點不同的是, 對球隊小聯盟農場系統的興趣越來越來高, 這裡
就給大家一些專業的分析。

What I have for you today is a Q&A style chat with ‘MinorLeagueBall’ editor
John Sickels. Author of two books about minor league baseball, Sickels has
been posting info on prospects at MinorLeagueBall since 2005.

    John Sickels是'MinorLeaqueBall'的編輯, 也是兩本小聯盟棒球書籍的作者, 從2005
年開始也一直提供小聯盟新秀選手的資訊。

I’m thrilled that he was willing to spend some time answering my questions
about the Yankees’ farm system.

    我很驚訝他願意花時間回答我關於洋基農場系統的問題。

Here is our chat.

    以下是我們的談話。

Bugs & Cranks: Let me start with a Phil Hughes question. We were always given
the impression that his minor-league velocity was 93-95. He has only been
hitting 88-91 last year and so far this year. Is there cause for concern
there?

Bugs & Cranks問: 讓我們從Phil Hughes的問題開始吧。我們一直對他在小聯盟時投出
93-95的球速感到印象深刻, 但去年以及目前今年他一直只能投出88-91的球速, 有令人
擔心的因素嗎?

John Sickels: Minor league velocity reports are sometimes exaggerated, even
by the best sources. However in Hughes’ case he was legitimately hitting
those numbers. The fall-off last year was supposedly due to the nagging
injuries he suffered. This year, I’m not sure. It is not uncommon for young
pitchers to lose velocity … sometimes they gain it, sometimes they lose it.
It’s a case by case thing. Remember, it’s not necessary to have a 95 MPH
fastball to be successful. Obviously it helps, but if Hughes can show good
command of his fastball and his secondary pitches, even 90-91 should be
enough. Nevertheless, its’ possible that he may end up being a number two or
three type starter rather than a dominating ace-type.

John Sickels答: 小聯盟球速的報告有時會有些誇大, 即使是最棒的資料來源。然而
Hughes的情況是的確球速的數字是差了一點。去年掉的球速應該是去年受的傷造成的影響
。今年我則無法確定, 年輕選手掉了球速不是什麼不尋常的事...有時候他們增加球速,
有時候則掉了球速, 事情是因人而異的。記得一點, 不一定有95mph的快速球就一定會
成功,顯然這麼快的球速是可以有所幫助, 但是假如Hughes能對速球和他第二好的球路,
有更好的控制能力的話, 即使90-91的球速就足夠了。只是無疑的是, 這樣可能他最後只
會成為2-3號型態的先發投手, 而不是宰制大聯盟的Ace級投手。

John Sickels: The other possibility is that the velocity drop is an indicator
of an underlying health issue that we don’t know about yet.

John Sickels: 其他的可能性則是, 他球速掉下來的原因, 基本上是他的身體上存在著
我們不知道的健康上的問題。

Bugs & Cranks : Yankee fans don’t want to hear that. It’s the thing that
scares us most. Am I right, though, that his minor-league velocity was better?

Bugs & Cranks問: 洋基的球迷可不希望見到是這樣, 這樣會嚇壞我們的。這麼說他小聯
盟的球速真的比現在要好了?

John Sickels: To the best of my knowledge, yes it was.

John Sickels答: 就我所知, 的確是這樣。

John Sickels: At times at least. There were reports as early as 2006 that he
was down “just” in the 92-94 range.

John Sickels答: 有時候至少, 像2006的報告他的球速是也只掉到了一點到92-94的範
圍。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. You may have posted this somewhere but I haven’t seen it.
Where does the Yankee farm system currently rank among all major league teams?

Bugs & Cranks問: 好。你是否在我沒注意到的地方發表過, 洋基農場系統目前在全大聯盟
的球隊排名是在那?

John Sickels: Well it would be above average. I don’t have an exact ranking,
as I think ranking systems like that is often misleading. But they would rank
above average, assuming you count Chamberlain and Kennedy as prospects still.
They are pretty deep in pitching, but are weaker with hitters at the upper
levels.

John Sickels答: 嗯應該是平均值以上。我沒有準確的排名, 就我認為像那樣的農場排名
經常會有誤導性。但是洋基應該排名在平均值以上, 假如你還把Chamberlain和Kennedy算
到農場新秀中。農場投手的深度是相當的夠, 但是好的打者的數量則嫌弱了點。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. Here’s a Yankees-Red Sox question. Given your choice
would you take Buchholz/Lester or Hughes/Chamberlain? Why?

Bugs & Cranks問: 好。這是洋基-紅襪的問題。假如讓你在Buchholz/Lester或
Hughes/Chamberlain作選擇你會選誰? 為什麼?

John Sickels: Well I like Buchholz slightly more than Chamberlain. So it
comes down to Lester vs. Hughes, and that’s real tough. Do I take the power
lefty? Those are harder to find. But Hughes could be special. I think I would
probably take Hughes/Chamberlain but it is close

Bugs & Cranks: Yankee fans will love you for that. OK, you mentioned the
Yankee pitching prospects. Can you run down the guys not currently in New
York who you feel are likely to make the biggest major league impact?

John Sickels: 嗯我喜歡八扣子比張伯倫略多一點。所以來看Lester相對Hughes, 這就
很難選了。我是不是會去選有球威的左投? 因為很難找到好的左投。但是Hughes可能是
很特別, 所以我會選Hughes/Chamberlain這一組, 但是兩組真的很接近。

Bugs & Cranks問: 洋基球迷會很高興你這樣說。好, 你提到洋基的投手新秀。你可不可
以列出現在不在大聯盟的投手, 有那些日後可能進到大聯盟對洋基隊造成影響?

Bugs & Cranks: If you want, I can throw names at you and you can tell me what
you think.

Bugs & Cranks問: 假如你需要, 我可以提出他們的名字, 然後你告訴我你的看法。

John Sickels: Alan Horne is the main guy I have my eye on. He could be
excellent if his command sharpens a bit more, and he should be ready soon.

John Sickels答: Alan Horne是我主要注意到的傢伙。假如他的控球再好一點很快就會
進到大聯盟。

John Sickels: Go ahead and throw names.

John Sickels答: 來吧丟名字出來。

Bugs & Cranks: OK.

Bugs & Cranks: Tell me a little more about Horne, then I’ll throw names at
you.

Bugs & Cranks問: 多告訴我一點關於Horne的事, 我會再提其他名字的。

John Sickels: OK. Horne had a rather odd college career, moved around some,
had Tommy John, then had some command troubles in 2006 in his first look at
pro ball. But he started to take off last year. He’s got plus stuff, just
needs to improve the command a bit more. I really think he’s underrated by a
lot of people.

John Sickels答: 好。Horne有個相當怪異的大學時期的投球生涯, 狀況起起伏伏, 有過
Tommy John手術, 2006年首次出現在聯業棒球時有控球的問題。他有好的球威(stuff),
只需要提昇一點控球能力。我真的認為他被很多人低估了。

Bugs & Cranks: Could he make an impact this year?

John Sickels: Yes.

Bugs & Cranks問: 需要的話, 今年他可不可幫助洋基隊?

John Sickels答: 可以。

Bugs & Cranks: Andrew Brackman.

John Sickels: Skeptical at this point. Even before the injury I thought he
was overrated. I know he’s 6-10 and all but he’s very raw for a college
pitcher and the injury was ill-timed.

Bugs & Cranks問: Andrew Brackman呢?

John Sickels答: 這位我有點置疑, 即便他受傷前我都認為他被高估了。我知道他有
6呎10吋的身材, 但是以大學的投手的程度而言他還很粗糙, 而且傷得不是時候。

Bugs & Cranks: Jeff Marquez.

John Sickels: Ground ball guy, will need a good defense behind him. Possible
inning-eater type starter, or a get-the-double-play reliever.

Bugs & Cranks問: Jeff Marquez呢?

John Scickels:滾球投手, 身後需要有好的守備能力。可能是吃局數型態的投手, 或製
造雙殺的後援投手。

Bugs & Cranks: Anybody in that Scranton bullpen right now who should really
help eventually? Albaladejo, Britton, Ramirez, Veras, Patterson? I’m
particularly interested to know if you think Patterson’s spring was a mirage.

John Sickels: Well Patterson has been effective at every level. I don’t see
any reason why he can’t be an effective short reliever in the majors. He has
enough stuff as long as his command stays strong. He’d be the best bet to
help I think.

Bugs & Cranks問: 3A的牛棚中有誰最後可以幫助洋基隊的? 是Albaladejo, Britton,
Ramirez, Veras, Patterson? 我特別有興趣的是Patterson, 你認為Patterson春訓的成
績會不會只是假象?

John Sickels: 嗯Patterson在小聯盟每個層級都證明投得不賴。我看不到任何原因讓他
無法成為大聯盟中的短中繼。只要他維持不錯的控球他是有足夠的球威留在大聯盟。我認
為他是幫助洋基最佳的選擇(賭注)。

Bugs & Cranks: Last year Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy came all the way
from A ball to help the big-league team, which is unheard of for the Yankees.
Anyone at that level right now who could be in the Yankee bullpen by season’
s end?

John Sickels: I don’t think so. The guys at the A-ball level right now with
the highest upside won’t be ready in 2008.

Bugs & Cranks問: 去年張伯倫和Kennedy從1A坐直通車上大聯盟, 洋基隊裡有沒有一些名
不見經傳的選手, 在季末時可以進到洋基牛棚。

John Sickels答: 我不認為會有。即使現在洋基一A等級的最有潛值的球員, 在2008年沒
有任一個有能力可以直升大聯盟。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. The one guy who is at the A level Yankee fans are probably
most interested in is Mark Melancon. What can you tell me about him?

Bugs & Cranks問: 好。1A的洋基球迷可能最有興趣的是Mark Melancon, 你的看法如何?

John Sickels: University of Arizona guy, missed last year due to Tommy John.
If healthy, has an impressive fastball/slider combination and was very
successful in college. If his arm is OK and his command is back at previous
levels, I think he could help in 2009.

John Sickels答: Arizona大學來的傢伙, 去年因Tommy John而休息。假如健康的話, 他
有令人印象深刻的速球/滑球球路組合, 在大學時期非常成功。假如他的手臂好了的話,
控球又回到先前的水準, 2009年就可以幫助洋基隊。

Bugs & Cranks: Bullpen?

John Sickels: Probably, yes. MAYBE late 2008 if everything goes well.

問: 牛棚嗎?

答: 或許是, 假如一切進展不錯2008季末可能就會上來。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. The Yankees traded Gary Sheffield to the Tigers for three
prospects before last season. They have yet to get anything from any of those
guys. Will any of the young arms the Yankees acquired ever pitch for the
Yankees?

問: 上個球季用Sheffied換來的三位, 又怎麼樣?

John Sickels: (Humberto) Sanchez if healthy has a good chance. I’ve liked
(Kevin) Whelan a lot but he was weird last year, velocity was up and down.

John Sickels: I don’t remember who the third guy was, lol.

答: Sanchez如果健康的話很有機會, 我比較喜歡Whelan多一點, 但他去年狀況怪怪的,
球速時好時壞。我不記得第三位是誰了, 哈(大笑)。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. Before we move on, the obligatory Kei Igawa question. Will
this guy ever help the Yankees?

John Sickels: Maybe in a small role, but I don’t think he’ll be a major
part of anything.

問: 嗯。再問下去前, 有義務問一下井川慶的問題, 這傢伙真能幫洋基隊嗎?

答: 可能的話會擔任個小角色, 但我不認為他會對大局有所影響。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. Who is the best position player prospect in the entire
Yankee system?

John Sickels: (Austin) Jackson or (Jose) Tabata. In the past I have leaned
Tabata but Jackson is really intriguing and I’m thinking about moving him
ahead.

問: 好。洋基農場系統裡9個守備位置裡最佳的新秀是那一位?

答: Austin Jackson 或 Jose Tabata。過去我認為是Tabata, 但Jackson真的表現得
不錯, 我考慮把他提到前面。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. I was going to ask you to compare those two guys. So, can
you give us the low-down on each of them?

John Sickels: Sure. Jackson is the better athlete of the two, should keep his
speed longer and started to develop more power last year. His strike zone
judgment needs work but he cut his strikeouts last season, a good sign.
Tabata is a year and a half younger, which is important. He’s getting thick
in his lower half but still runs well right now. Hasn’t shown as much power
as Jackson did last year, but has been more consistent with his batting
average. Both are Grade B/B+ type prospects, both project as regulars.
John Sickels: Both have a chance to be stars if they can continue refining
their tools. Don’t expect them to be ready until 2009 or 2010.

問: 好。我希望你比較一下這兩位。

答: 當然, Jackson是兩位中比較好的, 應該將他跑壘速度維持久一點, 去年開始長出更多
的長打能力。他的選球能力要再好一點, 但去年三振數已經減掉一半。Tabata則年輕了一
歲半, 這很重要。他的下半身了長壯了點卻仍然跑得很快。但還沒有長出像Jackson去年
的長打力, 但打擊率維持的不錯。這兩位評價都是B/B+等級的新秀, 是計畫中養成先發的
打者, 他倆都有機會變成名星選手, 只要他們把Tools再養好點, 2009或2010就可以上來
了。

Bugs & Cranks: So, if the Yankees need an outfielder from their farm system
this season it will probably be Brett Gardner. What can you tell us about
him? Is he a guy who can be a regular, or is he Bubba Crosby?

John Sickels: Very fast, gets on base, no power and unlikely to develop any.
I see him as a Jason Tyner type, more useful as a fourth outfielder in my
opinion than as a starter.

問: 所以, 假如洋基需要從他們農場拉人上來來, 可能的球員是Brett Gardner。你可不
可以說對他的看法? 他會是個一般的先發打者, 或只是Bubba Crosby那樣的球員?

答: 跑得很快, 有上壘能力, 沒有長打能力或不可能長出任何長打能力。我覺他會是
Jason Tyner型態的打者, 就我的意見他會是個第四號外野手, 而不是先發的外野手。

Bugs & Cranks: OK. Look to 2010. I know these are the Yankees and I know they
love to bring in big-name guys. But, any chance by then that we have an
outfield of Tabata-Cabrera-Jackson with Gardner as the fourth guy?

John Sickels: In theory, lol.

John Sickels: But I doubt it. They will bring in a big name.

問: 好, 那展望2010。我瞭解洋基隊的習性, 喜歡找些名氣響亮的傢伙來。但是, 是不是
有機會洋基的外野會是Tabata-Cabrera-Jackson, 然後Gardner當第四號外野手?

答: 理論上是這樣, (大笑...)。但我覺得應該不會, 洋基應該會找些大物外野手來。

John Sickels: However, fans of the Yankees farm system should not despair.
The system is improving, and having a good farm system is ALWAYS a good thing.

答: 但是, 洋基農場系統的球迷不應該沮喪。洋基的農場一直在提昇之中, 有好的農場系
統"總是"一件好事。

Bugs & Cranks: Yes. Are there any guys in the system we haven’t mentioned
who Yankee fans should be aware of?

John Sickels: Most Yankees fans nowadays are pretty decently informed about
the farm system. A couple of sleeper pitchers I think are interesting are
Daniel McCutchen and Zach McAllister. Both of them could be pretty
interesting. McCutchen would be up sooner, McAllister is more of a long-term
guy with high risk but an interesting reward. He was a high school pitcher
from Illinois who is still putting his game together but has some upside, and
he pitched better than the 5.17 ERA he put up in the NY-P last year indicates.

問: 是的。那農場系統裡是不是還有一些值得洋基球迷注意, 但還沒有被我們提到的球
員。

答: 現在洋基大部球迷已經相當熟知農場系統的情況。我想一些還在沈睡中但有趣的球員
是Danile McCutchen和Zach McAllister。這倆會成為大家有興趣的球員。McCutchen會成
長得快一點, McAllister則是值得長期培養但有高風險的選手, 但是養出來可能會有令人
驚奇的成果。他是位從Illinois來的高中投手, 有著一些成長性, 實際上投得比他5.17的
ERA還要好, 這是他去年在NY-P的層級中表現出來的結果。

Thanks again to John for sitting down to chat with me. I’m not going to
offer daily minor league coverage here, but I will try to periodically give
you guys updates on what is going on down on the farm. You can check
MinorLeagueBall for updates, as well as Chad Jennings outstanding SWB Yankees
Blog.


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※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 220.132.198.21       (04/11 09:12)