[blog] James: Yanks lacking in young talent

[leddy (耿秋)]

source: riveraveblues.com

James: Yanks lacking in young talent

Posted by: Ben K. in Analysis

In advance of the release of The Bill James Handbook 2009, the venerable
baseball analysts has released his list of the top young talent in baseball.
James has also put forward a ranking of the Major League clubs by top young
Major League talent, and the Yankees aren’t looking so hot with the team
ranked 29 out of 30.

According to ACTA Sports, publishers of the Handbook, these rankings include
players 30 and younger:

"To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players
who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics
—'Runs Created' for position players and 'Runs Allowed' for pitchers—as
the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for
injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability
between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number
of years the player should be at his peak performance."

Of course, it doesn’t take a baseball genius to recognize the Yankees’
 young-gun problems. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano turned in disappointing
2008 campaigns; Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy didn’t meet the lofty
expectations placed upon them; and even Joba Chamberlain suffered a lengthy
stay on the disabled list.

As the Yankees head into free agency, this list should be a part of their
considerations. Five of the top 15 and three of the top ten youngest teams
made the playoffs this year, and if the Yanks don’t get marked older, they’
ll suffer through some pretty bad seasons over the next few years.

The full franchise rankings and James’ top 25 young players are after the
jump.


 1. Minnesota Twins
 2. Arizona Diamondbacks
 3. Tampa Bay Rays
 4. Florida Marlins
 5. Kansas City Royals
 6. Milwaukee Brewers
 7. Cleveland Indians
 8. Colorado Rockies
 9. Atlanta Braves
10. Boston Red Sox
11. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
12. Oakland A’s
13. Los Angeles Dodgers
14. St. Louis Cardinals
15. Cincinnati Reds
16. New York Mets
17. Pittsburgh Pirates
18. Seattle Mariners
19. Texas Rangers
20. Philadelphia Phillies
21. San Diego Padres
22. San Francisco Giants
23. Washington Nationals
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Chicago Cubs
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Toronto Blue Jays
29. New York Yankees
30. Houston Astros

1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24


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◆ From: 140.130.155.141
※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 140.130.155.141      (10/23 17:04)
推 pikachu123:沒想到我們只贏太色人農場沙漠...農場都沒什麼人了= =
推 meier0112:這跟農場關係不大,紐約老人隊!!!
推 FENOR:看起來真的很冏。之前不是有說投手的部分還不差嗎?
→ leddy:這又不是看農場,是看25人名單中under 30的天份
推 FENOR:喔。是這樣喔...
推 pikachu123:美東有3之球隊都在20名以後大家都愛老人嗎= =
推 hsiang23:Hank:老子有錢 等你練好我再簽你 我沒時間等你!!
推 richertkk:哀,之前還再說沒有三十三,沒敢去舊金山,現在........
推 raygod:幾年前農場乾枯的後果吧
推 lovemost:甚麼鳥評價~連Pujous都沒有...
推 appshjkli:Pujols 28歲了,而且你連名字都打錯- -
→ appshjkli:仔細看就會知道這個人說的是30以下其實不怎麼排
→ appshjkli:改成25以下比較不會有爭議
推 NPLNT:可是套用他的公式 還是有機會出現25歲以上的人在榜上阿
→ NPLNT:像K-Rod跟A-Gon不就是嗎
推 maxspeed150:K-Rod和A-Gon都也才超過25一點
→ maxspeed150:以33歲來分的話 Pujols的分數只能*5 他們可以*7
推 appshjkli:嗯,也是
推 NPLNT:不過萬一有人乘*1還能上榜(雖說不可能) 加年齡限制不就囧了
推 maxspeed150:*1的話那他已經32了 我們通常不會叫32的人年輕球員
推 NPLNT:是沒錯...可是排名不是按照公式排的嗎
推 maxspeed150:其實你一開始假設*1就不成立了 因為只排30歲以下
→ maxspeed150:這個模型是在看一個球員的"未來發展性" 29歲的人可能
→ maxspeed150:有超人的累積成績 但是他已經29 A/E期也老早過了
→ maxspeed150:如果今天是比"最強的30歲以下球員"那又是另回事
推 siliver:Pujols*5都不能上榜了,去談那個*1的做啥啊.......
推 cardfat:去年Melky:Grade A Ethier:B 排名參考一下就好了
推 Benitez:Cabrera會輸Adrian Gonzalez嗎? 該不會連體重問題都計算了
→ leddy:30歲以上就事先拿掉了..不會有*1的問題
→ leddy:去年RC Melky:73, Ethier:70, Melky又比Ethier小一歲
→ leddy:你要用今年的成績質疑James算得有問題嗎?
→ leddy:用明朝的劍斬清朝的官....你分明是反清復明...
推 heacoun:XD
→ leddy:更正應該是小兩歲
推 albertjet:Kemp的排名有點高，Longoria有點低。Gonzalez不管怎麼看
→ albertjet:都贏不了Cabrera耶，何況照上面說的算法卡布是*8 岡薩*7
推 albertjet:B.J. Upton沒進榜也滿怪的 年齡和去年成績看起來他應進
→ leddy:Upton去年RC95排名第27, 今年RC剩88你覺得該排第幾..
→ albertjet:Kemp今年也不比Upton高多少阿，95/89，Upton還年輕一歲
→ albertjet:然後一個第七；一個沒進。不會差太多嗎?
→ albertjet:看錯= = 年紀一樣
推 siliver:詳細公式去MLB板看.人家還有參考速度和母隊的得分能力.
推 cardfat:所以就說參考一下就好了 不看選手的天份直接拿表現來用=.=