[外電] Subway Series winner?

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※ [本文轉錄自 CMWang 看板]

作者: yyhong68 (come every now and then) 站內: CMWang
標題: [外電] Subway Series winner? 
時間: Mon Aug 28 15:14:37 2006

Subway Series winner? Read on
Sunday, August 27, 2006

By BOB KLAPISCH


Willie Randolph was dead-on accurate last week when he nominated the
Mets as the National League's premier team. All the evidence supports
his theory – stats, personnel, momentum and, perhaps most significantly,
the dramatic three-game sweep of the Cardinals, who were supposed to be
one of the Mets' only obstacles to the World Series.

If they could crush Tony La Russa without Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine
and Orlando Hernandez, it's hard to imagine the suddenly resurgent
Dodgers having better luck in October. So if the Mets are theoretically
headed to the Fall Classic, how would they match up against the Yankees?

Granted, this is a presumptive question, since the Bombers will have
a tougher time than the Mets in winning the pennant. Still, there are
moments, like in the Yankees' five-game sweep of the Red Sox, when
another Subway Series seems inevitable. And unlike the five-game 2000
edition, which was a mismatch between an aging Met team against a
Yankee club that was in the latter stages of its late-90s dynasty,
Round 2 would be a fiercer battle.

The Yankees have better starting pitching, at least until the Mets prove
they're healthy. The Yankees have a more dangerous offense, and they'll
have the home-field advantage this year. But the Mets are younger and
more athletic; certainly they play better defense. Their bullpen is
more dependable, too. But most of all, Randolph's club has a certain
charm that is periodically bestowed upon a team that seems destined
to win it all.

So who do you like? Here's an early peek at the possible war of the worlds.

STARTING PITCHING: Chien-Ming Wang doesn't have quite the same bite on
his two-seam fastball from earlier in the season, but his 3.13 ground
ball/fly ball ratio (best in the AL) is still good enough to throttle
the Mets. Wang's only demerit is his anemic strikeout percentage
(2.96 per nine innings), which is the result of hitters swinging early
in the count. That keeps his pitch-count low, but too many balls are
put in play – which is always a potential threat with Alex Rodriguez
90 feet away.

For now, Wang is the Yankees' best Game 1 option, although Joe Torre
will likely give the ball to the effective but fragile Mike Mussina.
Randy Johnson has at least recovered from his early season disaster,
but his strikeouts are down precipitously as is his velocity. Asking
the Unit to hold the Mets to under four runs in seven innings would be
unrealistic.

Journeyman Cory Lidle, incredibly, is the Yankees' real No. 3 starter
right now – which would be scary enough against the Mets, except that
Pedro is hurt and Glavine remains a long-term question mark. And with
El Duque taking his annual late-summer sabbatical for what the club is
calling a "tired body," the Mets can only hope he regains his velocity
by October.

Of all the Mets' starters, it's rookie John Maine who has the arm strength
to neutralize the Yankees; he's the only one who throws hard enough to
get swings and misses in the strike zone with his four-seam fastball.
Everyone else is relying on deception and change of speeds. That's risky
business against one the AL's more potent lineups.

Advantage: Yankees.

RELIEF PITCHING: Mariano Rivera has that nearly untouchable postseason
resume, although the AL's average against him has risen by almost
50 points from last year and his strikeouts per nine innings are down
by 33 percent (9.19 to 6.05). Nevertheless, it's hard to say which
team has the advantage in the ninth inning, even though Billy Wagner
has converted on 24 of 26 save opportunities since May 3 and has
77 strikeouts in 601/3 innings.

The real separation between the Mets and Yankees is in the rest of
the relief corps. The Met bullpen's 3.19 ERA is second in the NL,
no small achievement considering the club lost Duaner Sanchez.
Scott Proctor has a better fastball than Aaron Heilman, but with his
league-high 65 appearances, is there any doubt he's headed for
the same doom as Paul Quantrill and Tanyon Sturtze?

The Yankees believe Octavio Dotel will eventually phase out Proctor,
but the Mets' secret weapon could be Guillermo Mota. Just a hunch.

Advantage: Mets.

INFIELD: The most interesting comparisons are found on the left side,
where Derek Jeter's bat trumps Jose Reyes'. Defensively, Reyes
eclipses Jeter in range and in arm strength. Third base is an
even more compelling one-on-one. David Wright's post-home run derby
drought (none since July 28, .210 average in August) is odd,
although not entirely inexplicable. He just looks and plays
like he's burned out (or bored), which is a possibility on
a team with a 14?-game lead.

Wright figures to recover next month. But will A-Rod? His league-leading
22 errors are baffling, coming from a former two-time Gold Glove
shortstop. Rodriguez looks even worse lately swinging and missing
at middle-of-the-plate fastballs. If he comes up short in the
playoffs – or even more damning, evaporates against the Mets in
a Subway Series – he may have to rethink his vow to retire in
pinstripes. It might be time to move on.

At second base, we'll take Robinson Cano over Jose Valentin, and at
first base Jason Giambi over Carlos Delgado, although just barely.

Behind the plate, Jorge Posada has a better throwing arm than Paul Lo Duca
and hits for more power. But Lo Duca is at least an accomplished gap
hitter, batting over .300 with 30 doubles. It's a push between the
catchers.

Advantage (defense): Mets.

Advantage (offense): Yankees.

OUTFIELD: The Mets are worse off in the corner positions than they were
on opening day; the opposite is true of the Yankees. The Bombers have
the better rookie (Melky Cabrera over Lastings Milledge, who was sent
down last week) and made the more dramatic trade (Bobby Abreu over
Shawn Green).

Green is already a crowd pleaser at Shea, but the Mets could still use
some of Xavier Nady's home run potential from the bottom of the order.
Green's slugging percentage, which peaked at .598 in 2002, has declined
steadily to its current .429.

In left field, the Mets were clearly disappointed by Milledge's lack of
production, albeit in a small sample, once Cliff Floyd became a non-factor.
Milledge will get a much longer look in 2007, but in the short term
he's been outplayed by Cabrera. You have to at least wonder if Omar
Minaya miscalculated when he refused to consider dealing Milledge
as part of a deal for Barry Zito.

Johnny Damon obviously can't match Carlos Beltran's production in
center, but between Cabrera and Abreu – not to mention the expected
returns of Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield – the Yankees have more
firepower than the Mets could cope with in a short series.

Advantage (offense and defense): Yankees.

MANAGER: Willie Randolph knows every one of Joe Torre's secrets and
tactics, the most important of which is keeping his team calm in
the face of relentless pressure. Torre isn't perfect; his Bombers
melted in the 2001 World Series, and no one will ever forget the
2003 ALCS collapse against Boston. But beating the Sox five straight
at Fenway went a long way in proving Torre still has the right touch
in the clubhouse.

Randolph is just as cool and composed, certainly as confident. All that's
missing is the October experience.

Advantage: Yankees.

Prediction: Yankees in seven.

* * *
NEWS ITEMS

Pavano nears return

It's still hard to believe Carl Pavano has actually recovered from the
assortment of injuries that have kept him on the DL since last summer.
The right-hander, who signed a four-year, $40 million deal after the
2004 season, has earned barely a penny of that salary, not to mention
he's made general manager Brian Cashman look foolish for pursuing him
as a free agent.

But unless some new injury crops up -- always a possibility -- Pavano
might start Friday in Jaret Wright's spot. If he's indeed healthy,
Pavano could be the missing ingredient the Yankee rotation has needed
ever since Randy Johnson stopped dominating. Pavano used to have a power,
two-seam fastball, not unlike Chien-Ming Wang's, and it would be Joe Torre's
dream come true to have two ground-ball specialists in the same rotation.

Then again, Pavano has teased the Yankees more than once, forced to the
sidelines with bruised buttocks and bone chips in his elbow
 (despite a year of inactivity). So while the Bombers have every right
to wish for Pavano's complete recovery, it'll be with tightly crossed
fingers.

Kazmir back on DL

Former Met Scott Kazmir's health issues have occupied this space in the
past, but now more than ever, it's reasonable to wonder if pitching
coach Rick Peterson was right when he suggested in 2005 that Kazmir
was headed for shoulder problems. That was the basis of the disastrous
trade that brought Victor Zambrano to Shea.

The Mets were convinced they could fix Zambrano's flawed mechanics in
a matter of minutes. Obviously, they were wrong. But as Kazmir was
headed to Tampa Bay, Peterson made it clear he was worried about the
lefty's delivery. Kazmir's lead arm, his right, extends too far from
his body upon release of the ball, creating strain on his throwing arm.

It was the kind of flaw that could only be detected and measured in a laboratory, but Peterson saw it and stuck to his assertion.

Perfect tribute

While greater New York has been consumed with the Yankees' and Mets' success
this summer, it's sometimes easy to overlook history. It was 50 years ago
that Mickey Mantle won the American League's Triple Crown and, even more
impressively, that Don Larsen threw a perfect game in Game 5 of the
World Series against the Dodgers.

There's a unique way to commemorate the event, sponsored by The Don
Larsen Foundation. On Nov. 4, six of the 11 pitchers still alive who
have thrown perfect games will attend an event called The Perfect Evening
at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Manhattan. Besides Larsen, those
who've promised to show are David Cone, Dennis Martinez, Len Barker,
Tom Browning and Mike Witt.

Those interested in tickets should call 212-252-2663.

* * *
BY THE NUMBERS

13

Starting pitchers since 1957 have given up nine runs or more in a game
but still earned a win. The most recent was Oakland's Dan Haren, who
beat the Blue Jays on Monday night, despite trailing 8-0 after two innings.

8

Runs scored by Mike Piazza without the benefit of a home run -- his
own or a teammate's -- represents one of the fewest by a hitter with
at least 15 HRs in one season. The Reds' Dave Ross shares that total.
The record of fewest HR-assisted runs scored is four, set by Steve
Balboni in 1990.

$1.57 billion

Combined bonds sales, by the Yankees and Mets, to finance their new
stadium projects. The Yankees were able to sell their offering at a
4.51 percent yield. The Mets' yield was slightly higher, 4.57 percent.

10

Runs by the Royals in the first inning of Wednesday's game against the
Indians -- which nevertheless resulted in a K.C. loss. The Royals and
the 1989 Pirates are the only teams in the last 50 years to open a game
with 10 runs and still lose.

48

Years since Julio Franco was born. He's the oldest player to wear a
uniform since Minnie Minoso made a comeback at the age of 57 in 1980,
according to Beyond the Box Score.

Power rankings

1. Yankees: Predictable post-Fenway hangover, but there's no understating
   the importance of the five-game sweep of the Sox.

2. Mets: Similarly impressive blowout of the Cardinals. The only question
   is Pedro.

3. Tigers: Still don't believe they'll cough up that first-place lead
   to either the White Sox or Twins.

4. A's: Incredible but true: The Little Green Engine is inching its
   way to another Western Division title.

5. Phillies: Keeping alive their wild-card hopes.

This date in baseball

1955: In his second big league start, bonus baby Sandy Koufax two-hits
      the Reds at Ebbets Field, 7-0. Showing his future dominance of the
      1960s, the southpaw strikes out 14.

They said it

"The last couple outings, we're concerned that he's starting to change
his arm stroke a little bit because of the tightness in his shoulder on
occasion. So we don't want to risk him doing anything improper by
throwing in a different manner."

-- Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon, quoted in the St. Petersburg Times,
about the decision to put Scott Kazmir on the disabled list.

http://0rz.net/2a1Om


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推 softtouch:嗯...
推 fizeau:Pedro跟Glavine要是到時還在養傷無法上場那勝算相當大