[Wang] The Wang Effect?

[yyhong68 (come every now and then)]

記得之前有PO過一篇有關Probabilistic Model of Range的數據文章
其中在 Defense Behind Pitchers中
該篇的作者David Pinto 還特別把小王的比賽造成的結果談論了一番
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023901.php

現在這個是來自於 Replacement Level Yankees Weblog

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

The Wang Effect?

If you're a baseball fan with at least some proclivity towards stats, you're
probably familiar with Voros McCracken's DIPS theory
(http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878).
McCracken basically stated that a pitcher's ability to control what happens
on balls in play is variable and volatile. Some overly extreme devotees
to this theory take it to mean that a pitcher has zero control over a ball
hit into play, but that's not really true. If it was, you wouldn't have
groundball pitchers and fly ball pitchers. Also, selection bias would mean
that anyone who reaches the majors may have a certain level of skill on balls
in play that allowed them to get that far. I still think DIPS theory is
useful in many ways, primarily because it taught me to look more closely at
a pitcher's peripherals, but it's really just a fraction of any evaluating
of pitching that I do.

One of the often-stated mantras about Chien-Ming Wang is that he generates
easily fieldable ground balls, which means his success despite a low
strikeout rate is not really that much of a fluke. It's possible this is
true, at least in the regular season, but is there a way to quantify it?

I recorded zone rating(http://tinyurl.com/yq7lt9)daily throughout 2007 to see
if I could use the day by day data to answer questions like this. Here's a
look at what the numbers showed.

Split         G     GS    Ch    INN   PO     A   E  DP   ZR   PM  Diff
Team Total  1307  1133  3054  10150  3211 1337  74 450 .830 2535   -18


G: Games
GS: Games started
Ch: Fieldable chances as defined by zone rating
INN: Defensive innings
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
ZR: Zone rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays made
Diff: Plays made compared to average

This is how the Yankees did as a team in 2007. Overall they made 18 plays
fewer than average.

Here's a look at how the team did in the games Wang started. This does
include all innings in those games including those not pitched by Wang,
but I have no way to separate those out.

Split        G   GS   Ch   INN    PO    A  E  DP    ZR   PM  Diff
Wang Total 248  215  591 1957.1  631  318  7  96  .853  504    10

Interesting, huh? In the games that Wang pitched, the team was 10 plays
better than average.

Lastly, here's the team in games Wang did not start.

Split            G   GS    Ch      INN   PO    A   E   DP    ZR   PM  Diff
Total - Wang  1059  918  2463  8192.9  2580 1019  67  354  .825  2031  -28

A few things to bear in mind about this data before we make too much of it.
1) It's only one year. Unfortunately no one I know of tracked daily zone
rating before this season so sample size is an issue.

2) Like I said, this includes innings pitched by relievers and not just
Wang. That muddies the numbers up a little.

3) BIP (ball in play) distribution. Perhaps Wang's balls in play just
happened to find their way to the better fielders on the team? We can check
that too.

（人員太多，表格太大，請自行參閱表格，故略)


Columns prefaced with a w are the stats in the games started by Wang,
columns prefaced by an nw are the non-Wang games. The ZR ratio is the
difference between each player's zone rating in Wang games and non-Wang
games. A percentage less than 100 means they were worse in Wang's starts
and a percentage greater than 100 means they were better in Wang's starts.
I'm not looking at runs saved here, but plays made above/below average.
Rough rule of thumb is .8 runs per play although it varies a bit by position

Again, I don't know how meaningful this is due to the sample size and
non-Wang innings in the 30 Wang games but I think it's pretty cool to
look at. Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez all had better
zone ratings in Wang's starts than in the other games. The first base
collective did worse. (wil Nieves at first? WTF?). What's interesting
to me is that even the OF saw a boost in games started by Wang, with
the exception of RF and Bobby Abreu.

I don't think we can't say with any absolute certainty that Wang does
allow more easily fieldable balls in play than the typical pitcher, but
there's at least circumstantial evidence that he may. It'll be something
worth following going forward. It may also make us want to think a little
bit more about DIPS theory and about how we assess defense. Just like
pitching is partly-related to defense, perhaps defense is partly-related
to pitching.


--Posted at 11:20 pm by SG / 2 Comments | - (41)


http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_wang_effect

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.109.23.105
※ 編輯: yyhong68        來自: 140.109.23.105       (01/02 16:32)
推 RollingWave:zzzz..when does ST start.... orz
推 whatisthis:滾浪大你的ST是Star Trek嗎XDDD
推 xiemark:Spring Training
推 tsming:講的很妙，應該沒有這麼神奇吧XD 東方的神秘力量嗎:P
推 airplanes:阿布是少見的不是小王之友會嗎?...
推 tsming:Cano不只是守備升級，還會放援護攻擊XD 我記得他在王的比賽
→ tsming:打了九支HR的樣子:P
推 DK2s:這叫做~好麻吉的力量
推 kill90206:特殊能力 勝投運?
推 bdsl:其實我覺得最主要的原因是小王先發時，內野手皮會繃得比較緊
推 FATBOYSLIM:神秘的東方力量
推 siliver:Cano身為會長,會放援護攻擊也是很正常低.
推 RobinsonCano:SURE
推 peachteagif:就說樓上在王先發的時候會變身成偽A-Rod了...
推 YHank:(CMWang上場了)洋基軍全體士氣提升！！！