ESPN TOP prospect

[nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)]

3 Joba Chamberlain RHP
New York Yankees TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 22
You may have heard of this fellow. Best known to big league fans as a
dominant setup guy, Chamberlain is best cast as a four-pitch starter who
projects as a true No. 1 starter. He has a four-pitch repertoire where all
pitches project as average or better: a plus 94-98 mph four-seamer, a toxic
83-87 mph slider with good tilt and variable break, an 11/5 curveball with
good depth, and a straight 81-84 mph changeup with good arm speed. The
fastball and slider are already big league out pitches and in relief, he can
probably get away without the other two pitches. Chamberlain has a great
pitcher's build with broad shoulders and the height to get good downhill
plane on his pitches, and his arm is quick. He's battled his weight in the
past, leading to knee trouble, and he had bicep tendinitis in college that
allowed him to fall to the Yankees in the supplemental round.

你也許聽過這些。對大聯盟球迷而言印象最深的是作為一個宰制聯盟的Setup，張伯倫
其實是一個擁有四種球路的王牌先發。他有四種被認為是平均到以上的球路：94-98mph
的好速球，83-87mph銳利的超殺滑球，11~5且不易分辨的曲球，還有81-84不錯的變速球
。速球跟滑球已經是大聯盟等級的out-pitch，作為後援投手，他可能不用其他球路就搞
得定。張伯倫的寬肩膀跟身高還有快速的揮臂是天生的好投手。他過去曾經有體重問題
使得膝蓋有點麻煩，在大學時也有二頭肌問題使得洋基可以在選秀中撿到他。

21
Jose Tabata RF
New York Yankees　TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Tampa) 19
Tabata was in the top 10 last year, but a nagging hamate injury ended his
2007 season early, requiring surgery in August. Tabata has a quick bat and
great hand-eye coordination, and he squares up balls as well as anyone on
this list. He also has good pitch recognition, although that can manifest
itself in working the count to get to a fastball he can drive. His raw power
hasn't shown up in games, which could be explained by the hamate injury; hand
and wrist injuries sap power, and full recovery from a broken hamate bone can
take up to a year. Tabata can play center but has been bumped to right field
by fellow Yankee prospect Austin Jackson (No. 24), and Tabata should be plus
there with an above-average arm. He'd rank higher if the hamate problem was
fully behind him, but until that becomes clear, there's still some risk here.

Tabata去年在Top 10裡面，不過惱人的鉤骨傷勢讓他已手術提早結束07球季。Tabata有
很快的揮棒速度跟手眼協調能力，而且他可以把球打得跟在這名單上的其他人一樣好。
他也有很好的辨識球路能力，讓他可以總是等到他想要的速球。他的砲瓦還沒在比賽中
徹底展現，可能跟鉤骨傷勢有關，手跟手腕的傷勢會傷害砲瓦，而鉤骨常常要等超過一
年才會完全復原。Tabata可以守中外野，但因為Austin Jackson使他站在右外野，Tabata
中外野會守得不錯，而且他的肩膀也在水準以上。如果他可以完全擺脫鉤骨的問題他的
排名會更高，但在那之前是有點風險。

24
Austin Jackson CF
New York Yankees　TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Tampa) 21
Jackson is my favorite kind of hitting prospect -- the athlete with a clue.
Jackson was a top basketball prospect in high school, but the Yankees flexed
their financial muscles and gave him first-round money in the eighth round, a
move that looks brilliant in hindsight because of how advanced Jackson is for
a multi-sport prospect. Jackson has good speed, a solid-average arm in center
and good instincts on fly balls, but still has some work to do at the plate.
His setup is excellent and his path to the ball is short, but he needs to
continue working on keeping his weight back to get more power from the
contact he makes, and he's too eager to chase the ball up. He's a potential
middle-of-the-order bat because of his power and improving plate discipline.

Jackson是我最喜歡的那型打擊新秀－運動員的樣子。Jackson在高中是個籃球新秀，但
洋基舒展財力在第八輪選他且給他一個第一輪的價碼，因為Jackson的好表現使得事後看
起來非常明智。Jackson有很好的速度，中外野手而言不錯的肩膀跟良好的飛球判斷，但
在打擊區上還需要加強。他的打擊機制非常好且揮棒路徑很短，但他必須試著讓重心保持
在後才會有好的砲瓦，而且他太喜歡追打高球。他有潛力是個中段打序的打者因為他的
砲瓦跟選球進步的可能。

45
Ian Kennedy RHP
New York Yankees　TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors 23
Kennedy's stuff alone would put him in the lower reaches of this list. He is
here because he has superb command of average or fringe-average stuff, so
superb that he is going to succeed in the majors where many guys with
superior stuff will fail. He works with a fringe-average fastball that
touches 90 mph on occasion but mostly falls in the 87-88 mph range, and he
commands it to all four edges of the zone. His best secondary pitch is his
changeup, slightly above average with some tailing action, but it works
extremely well because he keeps his arm speed consistent. His curve is
solidly average as well. Kennedy repeats his delivery as well as any prospect
on this list, commands all of his pitches and has a great feel for pitching.
With plus stuff, he would be in the top 10 overall, but with his stuff, he
will have to settle for an upside as a borderline No. 3 starter or a great
No. 4 starter.

甘迺迪stuff的單調理應讓他的排名更後面，他被排在這邊是因為他對他平均左右、甚至
平均邊緣的stuff有卓越的控制能力，卓越到他可能會得到即使那些stuff比他好的人也
無法做到的成就。他有一個平均邊緣、偶爾會有90mph但常常只在87-88的速球，可以把
他控制在好球帶的四個角落。第二好的球路是他的變速球，稍微超越平均並且有點尾勁。
他的曲球也差不多平均左右。甘迺迪的投球機制跟其他在這名單上的新秀一樣好，所有
球路控制得宜並且相當瞭解怎麼投球。如果stuff更好，他會在十名內，但只以現在的東
西來說，他會是個坐四望三的先發投手。

--
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http://atlyankees.blogspot.com/

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 61.230.126.228
推 gerkk:推
推 YGJHSU:push
推 shepherdy:推
推 deathcustom:坐四望三～現在的staff ace當年也被這樣預測
→ deathcustom:輪值後段投手，但是會有significant major career
推 RollingWave:Jackson那段the athlete with a clue.應該是...
→ RollingWave:會打球的運動員之類的意思吧....
→ RollingWave:如果只是運動員那CJ Henry也...XD
推 siliver:Ian只要達到四號投手的水準,對洋基的輪值就有很大的幫助了
→ siliver:但如果能找回球速......那真的會很威.
→ RollingWave:piss Roger... pass the... :P
→ kenro:不看好Ian..他應該就只是那樣不會大突破了 看能不能去換好貨
推 RollingWave:他現在那樣如果是Carlos Silva的話你的好貨要
→ RollingWave:>>>>>>> 4/52M的價值歐... :P
推 erichito19:Carlos Silva不知道要被提幾年XD
推 summoon:Alan Horne很沒存在感,都沒人提到他
推 raygod:Ian真可憐,一直被說普通,日塔奈美嗎?...
推 jyhsheng:小王當年也不看好阿
推 warchiefdodo:Alan Horne 在BP排67名的樣子...
推 wwwee:張博倫可能會越來越胖.....
推 redsnipertd:再胖下去膝蓋就要爆了
推 peachteagif:那是因為王莫明其妙的長出一顆sinker吧@@
→ RollingWave:張伯倫現在比他大一時瘦"很多"
→ RollingWave:其實他現在是一路受下來的結果
→ RollingWave:他當然有可能胖回去不過至少看起來他應該很清楚
→ RollingWave:whats good for him
→ RollingWave:還有Carlos Silva 會被提到下個蠢約而已,
→ RollingWave:以這幾年的"效率"來看大概不會太久
推 RollingWave:Alan Horne各方看法滿極端的
→ RollingWave:Keith Law不知道是拿錯了scouting report還是怎麼樣
推 awhat:我想看麥狗在小聯盟的scouting report......
→ RollingWave:其他幾乎都讚賞Horne的stuff他卻提出反論
→ RollingWave:who knows,至少是個很有趣的option
推 eilgreen:推awhat 看到Ian的評論時 直覺也是想到麥狗
推 RollingWave:那機率低到不行
推 siliver:恩,Joba應該很清楚要報答他老爸接下來該怎麼作,如果他受
→ siliver:不了誘惑又肥回去,那他也不過如此而已.