[hardballtimes]五問洋基

[RollingWave (Lost in the Dark)]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-new-york-yankees1/

by Cliff Corcoran
March 31, 2006

The Yankees have won eight straight AL East Championships, but last year it
took them until the penultimate day of the season to clinch, winning the
division only with the aid of a tiebreaker, a tiebreaker that, in a vicious bit
of irony, failed to award them home field advantage in the ALDS, but nearly
seven months later allowed the Red Sox to claim Hee Seop Choi off waivers just
ahead of the Yankees.

洋基連贏了八年的美聯東區冠軍，但是去年他們拖到了最後兩天才確定冠軍，而且是靠著
勝負關係才能贏得區冠軍， 而這個結果很諷刺的讓他們在ALDS中失去了主場優勢， 而且
七個月後讓紅襪隊搶在他們之前撿走了崔熙涉。

The Yankees and Red Sox have been in a virtual tie for the past three seasons,
and over the past four have split 90 head-to-head matchups, including fourteen
ALCS games. It would seem that the AL East coin is bound to come up tails one
of these years, but as opening day approaches, the Yankees appear ready to make
it nine in a row. The answers to these five questions explain why.

洋基與紅襪再過去的三季打的難分難解，而在過去的四年中平分了九十場對戰，包含了十
四場的聯盟冠軍戰。 照理說在美東丟的這個硬幣總該有一次出現在反面(波士頓總該贏一
次)， 但在球季即將開幕的此時，洋基看來會出現第九次的正面。而原因再以下的五個問
題解答會解釋

1. Will this be the best opening day lineup Joe Torre had in his eleven seasons
as Yankee manager?

1. 這會是Joe Torre 十一年來最棒的開幕陣容嗎?

The following is Joe Torre’s projected opening day lineup with their HITTER*
projections:

以下是 Joe Torre 的開幕陣容打擊預估。
Pos  Name              OBP   SLG
CF   Johnny Damon     .345  .440
SS   Derek Jeter      .386  .461
1B   Jason Giambi     .413  .539
3B   Alex Rodriguez   .385  .577
RF   Gary Sheffield   .380  .520
LF   Hideki Matsui    .370  .484
 C   Jorge Posada     .375  .469
2B   Robinson Cano    .310  .450
DH   Bernie Williams  .330  .380

Last year’s opening day lineup included Tony Womack (.249/.276/.280) and an
even less productive Bernie Williams (.249/.321/.367). The year before it was
Enrique Wilson (.212/.254/.325) who dragged things down with Kenny Lofton in
the Bernie spot (.275/.346/.395).

去年的開幕陣容包含了Tony Womack (.249/.276/.280) 一個退步的 Bernie Williams
(.249/.321/.367) 前年是 Enrique Wilson (.212/.254/.325) 以及在 Bernie 位置的
Kenny Lofton (.275/.346/.395) 拖累了他們.

Going back further, 2002 was spoiled by Rondell White (.240/.288/.378) and
Shane Spencer (.247/.324/.375), 2001 had the left field version of Chuck
Knoblauch (.250/.339/.351) and just one OBP over Derek Jeter’s .377
(Bernie at .395). Prior to that, some combination of Scott Brosius
(.230/.299/.374 in 2000), Chad Curtis (.243/.355/.360 in 1998), Mariano Duncan
(.244/.270/.308 in 1997) and Joe Girardi (.272/.317/.361 overall from 1996 to
1999) prevent Torre’s Dynasty-era clubs from competing with this year’s
starting nine.

回到更前面，2002年被Rondell White (.240/.288/.378)跟Shane Spencer
(.247/ .324/ .375) 所毀， 2001 年的左外野版本的Chuck Knoblauch (.250/.339/.351)
而只比Jeter的.377 OBP 高一點 (Bernie 當時有 .395). 在更之前， Scott Brosius (
以下資料略..太麻煩XD) Chad Curtis, Marinano Duncan 跟 Joe Girardi 等人的組合
讓前些年Torre的球隊無法與今年這支相比.

The 2003 opening day lineup, however, presents a solid challenge to the current
Yankees order:

2003 年的開幕陣容卻可以跟現在的洋基一比

Pos  Name              OBP   SLG
2B   Alfonso Soriano  .338  .525
SS   Derek Jeter      .393  .450
1B   Jason Giambi     .412  .527
CF   Bernie Williams  .367  .411
LF   Hideki Matsui    .353  .435
 C   Jorge Posada     .405  .518
3B   Robin Ventura    .344  .392
RF   Raul Mondesi     .330  .471
DH   Nick Johnson     .422  .472

Ignoring the fact that these men are hitting in the wrong order (Jeter, Nick
Johnson, Jason Giambi, Jorge Posada, Alfonso Soriano, Hideki Matsui, Williams,
Raul Mondesi, Robin Ventura would have worked much better), the worst hitter
here is Ventura, who outproduced the ‘06 projection for Williams. Assuming,
for the sake of simplicity, equal playing time for all nine players, the
projected ‘06 lineup averages a .366 OBP and a .480 SLG, while the 2003
line-up averaged a .374 OBP, but just a .467 SLG. Converting those to GPA, we
get .2847 for ‘06 and .28505 for 2003. Edge 2003, but considering the fact
that we only have projections for ‘06, that’s too close to call.

姑且不論這個打擊順序不對(Jeter, Johnson, Giambi, Posada, Soriano, Matsui,
Williams, Mondesi, Ventura 應該會比較好) 在這裡最差的打者是Ventura, 而他的數據
比Williams 的06預期數據好。 (接下來的一堆數學不想翻了XD) 但是我們只有06年的預估
數據..所以結論上很難判斷。

Looking beyond opening day, we know that neither Ventura nor Mondesi made it
past the trading deadline with the 2003 Yankees, resulting in downgrades at
both positions—Aaron Boone (.254/.302/.418) at third and a platoon of righty
Juan Rivera (.266/.304/.468) and lefty Karim Garcia (.305/.342/.457) in right
field. Meanwhile, the weakest position in the 2006 lineup could be upgraded
immediately should Torre see fit to make Andy Phillips (whom HITTER projects
at .260/.340/.480 if given a full-time job) his designated hitter (not that
we’re holding our breath). Edge 2006, but ...

我們知道後來Ventura 跟 Mondesi 都沒有撐過交易截止日，而因此兩個位置的火力都下降
(以下省略)但是目前06的最弱位置可以隨時升級，只要Torre讓Andy Phillips 當他的
DH (他的打擊預估是.260/.340/.480.. 如果全時間打的話) (但是我們並不預期這樣發生)



2. Is this the worst bench Joe Torre has ever had?

2. 這是 Joe Torre 有過的最爛的板凳球員嗎?

If Phillips starts and Bernie rides pine, the answer is absolutely, but with
Phillips’ bat and defensive versatility (he’s a strong defender at the
infield corners, can spot in the outfield corners and was once a starting
second baseman in the minors) in the dugout, it’s a bit less clear.

如果Phillips 取代 Williams 的先發的話恐怕就是了，但是因為有Phillips的打擊與防禦
多樣性(優秀的一三壘守，可以當外野手，也當過二壘守) 就有點難說。

The Yankees will break camp with a five-man bench, but when the need for a
fifth starter arrives on April 15, they’ll trim it back to these four:

洋基現在有五人板凳，但是再四月十五號需要第五號先發投手後就會減少回以下四人

R – Andy Phillips (1B/3B)
R – Miguel Cairo (INF)
L – Bubba Crosby (OF)
R – Kelly Stinnett (C)

When the Yankees lost the 2004 ALDS after leading three games to none, a lot of
the criticism the team received focused on their week bench and Joe Torre’s
reluctance to use the few useful players he had. That bench was Lofton
(outfield), Crosby (outfield), Wilson (infield), John Flaherty (catcher) and,
until John Olerud stepped on his own bat, Tony Clark (first base). Cairo at his
worst is no worse than Wilson was for the Yankees (faint praise indeed),
Stinnett and the ‘04 version of Flaherty are a wash, and Crosby has shown no
significant change in his game in the last two years, despite a September 2005
hot streak that was almost entirely singles and fooled many a Yankee fan.
Phillips, by virtue of being able to play third base, is an improvement on
Clark, but the shorthanded ’06 bench has no answer for Lofton, who was
unfairly buried by Torre in ‘04.

當洋基在04年的ALDS 領先三場然後輸掉後很多人就批評說板凳深度不足而且Torre不肯用
少數的有用球員。當年的板凳是Lofton (外野) Crosby (外野) Wilson (內野) Flaherty
(捕手) 以及在Olerud 踩到自己的球棒後的 Tony Clark (一壘)。 Cario 在怎麼爛也不會
比當年的 Wilson 爛 (真是低標準的讚賞) Stinnet 跟 04年的 Flaherty 五十步笑百步。
而Crosby 去年九月幾乎都是一安的連打可能騙到了不少球迷但是他這兩年來看不出明顯的
改善 。 而Phllips 因為能夠守三壘所以比起Clark 是個進步，但是缺人手的06 板凳
沒有能跟在04年被 Torre 不公平冷凍的Lofton相比的球員

Last year the Yankees bench was Tino Martinez (first base), Womack (outfield),
Crosby (outfield), Mark Bellhorn (infield), and Flaherty (catcher). Despite the
extra player, this group actually fails to measure up to this year’s four-man
bench, in large part because Womack and Flaherty combined to be 38 runs below
average, while Phillips alone provides more punch than Tino’s last gasp and
the re-pumpkined Bellhorn combined, and Crosby’s speed is sufficient to
compensate for the only aspect of Womack’s game that had any value. Still,
this is a cripple fight if there ever was one. The days of Darryl Strawberry,
Tim Raines, and Cecil Fielder are long gone.

去年的洋基板凳是 Martinez (一壘)  Womack (外野) Crosby (外野) Bellhorn (內野)
Flaherty (捕手)。雖然多了一人，這個組合還比今年的濫，因為Womack 跟Flaherty 何在
一起得了38分，而Phillips 一個人就比Martinez 的最後一搏與又變胖的Bellhorn 有威脅
， 而Crosby 的速度能夠取代Womack 為一還有價值的部份。 但是這說穿了是龜笑鱉沒尾
。 相對於當年能有 Darryl Strawberry, Tim Raines, 以及 Cecil Fielder 在板凳上的
輝煌時代已經不在。

The one encouraging note is that the Yankees could improve their bench simply
by using what they have in Triple-A. Some combination of outfielders Kevin
Reese and Kevin Thompson and infielders Russ Johnson and Felix Escalona could
improve upon the punchless Cairo/Crosby combo (as well as replace the seventh
man in the bullpen), though the improvement would be marginal at best. With
Gary Sheffield, Posada, Giambi and Iron Man Matsui another year older, the
Yankees are one 60-day DL stay from a major blow to their offense.

往好方面看洋基只要用現成的三A選手就可以增加板凳的實力， 外野手Kevin Reese 與
Kevin Thompson 以及內野手 Russ Johnson 與 Felix Escalona 的任何組合都比打擊無力
的 Cario/Crosby 好 (並可替代牛棚中的第七人) 但是這個進步也十分有限。 而當
Sheffield, Posada, Giambi 與鐵人松井又老了一年，洋基的火力只要出現一個60天傷兵
名單就會大受打擊。


This would lead one to believe that the Yankees will go after a bench bat at
the trading deadline, preferably a lefty who could spell Phillips against
righties in the unlikely scenario that he becomes the everyday designated
hitter. That is until one looks at the reliability of their pitching rotation ...

這讓我認為洋基會再交易截止前去找尋另一個板凳的打者， 最好是左打者，這樣
萬一Phillips 成為固定的DH 就可以對付右投。 但是這前提是他們投手群沒出問題...


3. Spring training isn’t even over yet and the Yankees have two starters
ticketed for the 15-day DL and two more hoping to overcome injury scares by
opening day. Is there any chance that their rotation won’t completely collapse
by the All-Star break?

3. 春訓還沒結束洋基就已經有兩名先發上了傷兵名單而有兩個不知道可不可以開季就先發
。 這個組合有可能在明星賽前不全面崩潰嗎?

Coming into spring training, the Yankees believed they had seven starters:
Randy Johnson, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Shawn Chacon, Chien-Ming Wang,
Jaret Wright and Aaron Small. Pavano has yet to see game action, as he continues
his indefinite rehab from the ailing mangina that took him out of the rotation
last June. Small, who was immediately identified as an odd-man out and ticketed
for long relief, will start the season on the 15-day disabled list due to a
hamstring pull. Wright, who seemed to discover a miracle cure for his curve
ball in his last spring start thanks to some advice from Mike Mussina, hasn’t
pitched since that revelation due to back spasms brought about during fielding
practice. Wang, meanwhile, left his last start after taking a hard Curtis
Granderson grounder off his push knee (one of the many risks involved in being
an extreme groundball pitcher).

開訓時洋基認為他們有七個先發投手， Johnson, mussina, Pavano, Chacon, Wang
Wright  跟 Small, Pavano, 還沒有出賽過，他繼續從去年六月開始的養傷。Small
幾乎立刻是被認為要去牛棚當長中繼， 但是他因為拉傷而會在季初時呆在傷兵名單上。
Wright 在最後一次投球時似乎因為Mussina的指導發現了曲球的救藥。但接下來馬上就
在練習時背抽經而不能上場。 Wang 在上一次出賽時被Curtis Granderson 的滾地球打到
膝蓋後退場 (這也是極端滾地球投手的風險之一)

That leaves the Yankees with three starters, one of whom is 42 and has a bad
back and a bum knee, another who is 37 and has missed significant time each of
the last two seasons due to elbow pain, and a third who pitched like crap in
Colorado before experiencing an inexplicable run of luck on balls in play down
the stretch (a .240 BABIP as a Yankee against a league average around .300).

洋基還剩下的三個先發投手中..一個42歲而且膝蓋跟背都不好，另一個37歲而且過去兩年
都沒投完整季，最後一個在克羅拉多丟的跟屎一樣爛(直接翻譯XD)然後到洋基後賽到超級
強運的BABIP...


It sounds dire, but in reality it’s not quite that bad. To begin with, Wang
appears to be fine, leaving just his tender shoulder as a background concern
which has not reared its head since his strong return to action last September.
Johnson, despite his age and injuries, remains one of the most reliable pitchers
in baseball, ranking fourth in the majors in innings pitched over the past two
seasons and tied for third in games started. Chacon, adjusting to life at sea
level, has used his devastating curve and impressive change-up to post an 8.59
K/9 this spring, reducing his reliance on balls in play (all sample size and
spring competition caveats apply, of course).

聽起來很慘..但實際上還沒那麼糟糕，首先..Wang 似乎是沒事，只是他的肩膀還是個隱憂，
但是自從去年九月回到球隊後似乎到目前為止都沒有問題。 Johnson 雖然年紀大而且有傷
..還是棒球界中最可靠的投手之一，在過去兩季中的投球局數排名第四而先發場次排名第
三。Chacon自從適應了海平面的生活後利用他毀滅性的曲球以及相當有看頭的變速球來在
這個春訓中繼出了 8.59 的 K/9 數據， 大幅降低了它依賴守備的次數 (當然樣本不大
而且是春訓..)


Also, as stated above, the Yankees don’t need a fifth starter until April 15,
and won’t need one again until April 29. They could well have both Small, who
has already resumed throwing, and Wright, who may not even require a DL stay,
ready for action by then. Meanwhile, Johnson, Mussina, Wang and Chacon, in that
order, are set up to start the season as a four-man rotation.

另外，之前說到的，洋基到四月十五前不需要第五號投手，而且再下一次需要是四月29
。到時候很可能Small 跟 Wright 都可以上場了， Small 已經繼續練球，而Wright可能
不需要上DL。而在這之前， Johnson, Mussina, Wang 跟 Chacon 會以四人輪班開始球季。

The key to the Yankee rotation, however, is the promising trio of 25-year-old
starters lurking in Columbus, any one of whom could emerge as a permanent part
of the major league rotation the way then-25-year-old Wang did last year. The
ace of this bunch—which also includes Darrell Rasner, a waiver wire gift from
Jim Bowden, and lefty Sean Henn, who pitched well in 16 starts for Columbus
last year—is Matt DeSalvo.

但是洋基投手群的真正關鍵是三名在3A的25歲投手， 其中任何一人都有可能像去年的
Wang 一樣成為大聯盟的固定先發。 這三人包含了 Darrell Rasner, 左投 Sean Henn
以及最有希望的 Matt Desalvo.

Originally signed as an undrafted free agent, DeSalvo is an undersized,
soft-throwing righty who does nothing other than get men out. In his minor
league career he’s posted a 2.62 ERA, struck out 9.15 men per nine innings,
and allowed just 6.64 hits per nine. With DeSalvo, Rasner and Henn on hand, the
Yankees rotation becomes 10 deep and, much like last year, could actually
finish the year stronger than it is now without the team having to acquire
another pitcher.

DeSalvo 原來是非選秀的自由球員， 他是一名矮小球速不快的右投而他唯一會做的就是
讓對手出局。 在他的小聯盟生涯中他的ERA是 2.62, K/9 是 9.15, 而平均每九局讓對手
打出6.64支安打。有了DeSalvo, Rasner 跟Henn 後..洋基的先發群其實變成了十人深度
而可能會跟去年一樣他們在年底時不需要做出任何的交易就能夠變的比現在更強。

4. Brian Cashman used his own free agency to wrestle control of the Yankees
front office this offseason. What was the best move that resulted?

4. 現金人利用他自己的FA來搶下今年的洋基主控權，因此而產生的效應如何?

Cashman made his greatest strides by cutting loose the extremely old and
extremely useless. Getting not one, but two useful minor leaguers for Womack
was a minor miracle. Cutting lose plagues such as Flaherty and Ruben Sierra
(Kevin Brown went away on his own) also went a long way toward plugging the
persistent production leak on the Yankees bench. But the best moves Cashman
made were signing Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel to set up Mariano Rivera.
Once Dotel returns from Tommy John rehab in June, they could combine with
Rivera to give the Yankees the best bullpen Big Three they’ve had during Torre’s
reign, and the best endgame they’ve had since Rivera and John Wetteland in
1996.

現金人儘力的去除掉了隊上極老跟極沒用的隊員。 能用Womack換到兩名有用的小聯盟球員
真是個小奇蹟。去掉如Flaherty 跟 Sierra等瘟神(Kevin Brown 自己走的) 也有助餘補強
持續漏水的洋基板凳。但現金人最好的動作就是簽下Farnsworth + Dotel, 一但Dotel康復
後洋基可能會有自96年來最強的後端牛棚陣容。

5. Assuming the Yankees make their 12th straight postseason, do they have what
it takes to make it back to the World Series?

5.假設洋基連續第十二度進軍季後賽，他們有可能打到最後嗎?

Having just one more stopper in the pen could have made the difference in the
2003 World Series and 2004 ALCS, and that’s exactly what the Yankees will have
with Farnsworth and Dotel. Last year, however, the Yankees lost the ALDS not
because of their dreadful bullpen, but because Randy Johnson punted his Game 3
start. Given the strength of their lineup and the back of their bullpen, if
Johnson decides to show up for the postseason this year, the Yankees could very
well pick up their 40th AL flag.

在 03 的冠軍戰與 04的聯盟冠軍戰中只要再多一個可用的牛棚投手結果可能就不同了。
但是今年他們有了Farnsworth 跟 Dotel。 去年洋基會在分區賽中輸掉的主因不是因為他
們的超爛牛棚，而是因為Johnson 在第三場中自爆。考慮到他們的陣容與補強的牛棚..
只要Johnson 決定今年季後賽要來上班，那洋基就很有可能奪下第四十次的美聯冠軍。

Cliff Corcoran is the co-author of Bronx Banter at BaseballToaster.com. He also
contributed to Baseball Prospectus 2006 and Mind Game. He can be reached at
[e-mail] .

終於...手要斷了..

--

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◆ From: 61.62.216.242
推 facz:剛剛才看完 沒想到就有人轉到洋基版說 呵呵
※ 編輯: RollingWave     來自: 61.62.216.242        (04/03 14:26)
※ 編輯: RollingWave     來自: 61.62.216.242        (04/03 14:50)
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※ 編輯: RollingWave     來自: 61.62.216.242        (04/03 15:37)
※ 編輯: RollingWave     來自: 61.62.216.242        (04/03 16:05)
※ 編輯: RollingWave     來自: 61.62.216.242        (04/03 16:34)
推 m654:辛苦了，給妳推一個！
※ 編輯: RollingWave     來自: 61.62.216.242        (04/03 16:51)
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