Re: [新聞] Go for four

[HIPOP4EVER (LET'S GO YANKEES!!!)]

※ 引述《VaROne ()》之銘言：
: Would a four-man rotation help the Yankees' chances?
: By Phil Pepe / Special to YESN
: 07/24/2006
: http://0rz.net/301El
: There is a remedy for what ails the Yankees — no, not an arm transplant for
: Alex Rodriguez — and it's right before their eyes, etched in their
: illustrious history, if they want to avail themselves of it.

對於洋基長期頭痛的問題，這裡有一帖良方---不是換掉Arod的手臂啦，而是就在他們
的面前，烙印在他們過往的光輝歷史中，如果他們想採取的話。

: This remedy won't cost the Yankees any money or prospects, but it would
: represent a radical departure from current baseball philosophy and would
: require some powerful arm-twisting and mind-bending to get today's players to
: comply.

這帖良方不會花到洋基任何一毛錢，或是動用到任何一個新秀，但它可能代表著現代棒球
哲學上的一個根本上的改變，並且可能需要較大的影響力以及思維上的改變，才能讓現代
的棒球選手接受。

: GO TO A FOUR-MAN STARTING ROTATION!

那就是採用四人先發輪值!

: Today's baseball is bogged down in pitch counts and tendencies, in
: specialists and match-ups. As a result, we have seventh inning pitchers,
: eighth inning pitchers, pitchers who face one batter and leave, and starting
: pitchers who have to be bailed out when they reach a count of 100 pitches, no
: matter the score, the inning or the situation.

今日的棒球已陷入用球數以及過度專門化的迷思。於是，你常會看到七局上場的投手，
八局上場的投手，專門對付一個人的一人左或是一人右，還有先發投手不管投的如何，
只要用球數來到了100球就要退場等等情事。

: Yet the game's history resonates with great performers who had pitching
: coaches that never held a counter; pitchers that lived by a code that the
: game, and their job, wasn't over until the last man was out. Robin Roberts,
: for instance, once pitched 28 consecutive complete games. He pitched for 19
: years, started 609 games, finished 305 of them, and never had a sore arm.
: The five-man starting rotation is not of recent vintage. It goes back
: decades. Even the legendary Casey Stengel, when he was winning all those
: championships with the Yankees, subscribed to a five-man rotation-in 1949,
: Vic Raschi, Allie Reynolds, Eddie Lopat, Tommy Byrne and Fred Sanford started
: 139 of the Yankees' 154 games.

翻開過往歷史，我們可以瞧見好的投手教練從來不執著於投手的用球數，讓投手依場上的
情勢盡情發揮，投到最後一人才退場。舉例來說，像Robin Roberts就曾經連續完投28場
。他投了19年，先發了609場，完投了305場，手臂從來沒酸痛過。五人先發輪值並不是近
代的產物。它可追溯到好幾十年前。即使像傳奇人物Casey Stengel，當他贏得他在洋基的
那些冠軍時，當時(1949)他也是採用先發投手五人輪值，投手群分別是Vic Raschi、Allie
Reynolds、Eddie Lopat、Tommy Byrne以及Fred Sanford，他們五人在全季154場共先發了
139場比賽。

: It wasn't until 1961 when Ralph Houk took over from Stengel as manager that
: change came to pass. Convinced by pitching guru Johnny Sain that a four-man
: rotation was the way to go, Houk encountered Whitey Ford in a chance meeting
: at a St. John's Kansas basketball game at Madison Square Garden.
: "How would you like to pitch every fourth day?" Houk asked Ford.
: "I told him I'd love it," Ford said. "I never liked the long wait between
: starts to begin with."

直到1961年Ralph Houk從Stengel接掌兵符後，五人輪值觀念才有所轉變，Houk深信John
Sain所說的，四人先發輪值才是可行之路。Houk有一次在麥迪遜花園廣場的籃球賽中巧遇了
Whitey Ford，於是他就問Ford說：「你喜不喜歡投一休三？」
Ford回答：「我很喜歡」，「我不喜歡要等很久的不固定先發輪值。」

: And so the plan was put into effect. The rotation revolved around Ford who
: made 39 starts with other starters slotted in around him — Ralph Terry made
: 27 starts, Bill Stafford 25, Roland Sheldon 21, Bob Turley 12 and Jim Coates
: 11 — and the results were startling.

於是輪值的計畫便開始生效。Ford先發了39場，而其他的投手如Ralph Terry、Bill
Stafford、Roland Sheldon、Bob Turley以及Jim Coates分別先發了27、25、21、12以及
11場----這個結果令人大吃一驚。

: FORD IN 1960 UNDER STENGEL
:  G GS  W-L   IP   K BB CG SO  ERA
: 33 29 12-9 192.2 85 65  8  4 3.08

在五人輪值的排表中投球

: FORD IN 1961 UNDER HOUK
:  G GS  W-L   IP    K BB CG SO  ERA
: 39 39 25-4 283.0 209 92 11  3 3.21

在四人輪值的排表中投球

: If Whitey Ford could do it, why not Randy Johnson? And Mike Mussina? And
: Chien-Ming Wang?

Whitey Ford都做的到了，那麼RJ、小王、穆帥怎麼可能作不到？

: On Monday, July 24, Johnson, Mussina and Wang had a combined record of 32-15.
: The remaining Yankees' starters had a record of 24-25. Clearly, the Yankees
: would be better served by giving the Big Three more starts at the expense of
: the others, even if it means that, on short rest, the Big Three would be
: pitching at 80 percent of their efficiency. Isn't 80 percent of Johnson,
: Mussina and Wang better than 100 percent of the rest?

截至7月24號禮拜一，RJ+穆帥+小王戰績合計是32勝15負，中繼投手群戰績合計是24勝
25負。很明顯的，洋基最好能讓這三大王牌多點先發的場次，儘管這代表著，在休息
時間短的狀況下，三大王牌僅能使出80%的功力。試想，能多投好幾場但僅能使出80%
的功力，是不是比獲得充分的休息但先發較少來的好呢？

: As Johnson took the mound against the Texas Rangers on Monday, July 24, the
: Yankees had 66 games remaining. Pitching on the present five-man rotation,
: Johnson, Mussina and Wang figured to have about 42 starts remaining among
: them. On a four-man rotation, they would have about 54 starts left; that's 12
: additional games without seeing the names Shawn Chacon, Jaret Wright and
: Sidney Ponson penciled in.

當7月24號禮拜一RJ對上遊騎兵的時候，洋基還剩下66場比賽。根據目前的五人輪值，
RJ、穆帥、小王預料合計會有42場的先發。若是四人輪值的話，他們三人將會有合計
54場的先發機會；54-42=12，多出來的這12場我們就不用看到恰康、萊特以及胖松了。

: It seems the right thing to do, but given the current climate and pitching
: philosophy, it probably will never happen. But shouldn't it?

這似乎是個正確的方法，但依照現今大聯盟的氛圍，還有今日的投球哲學，我上述所分析
的可能不會發生吧。

--
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◆ From: 61.224.44.187
→ HIPOP4EVER:我覺得Phil Pepe這篇有點嘴炮，翻完有點後悔。
推 michael1616:有看有推^^謝謝
推 evilman:如果這樣子搞法 DL名單會更豐富
推 mune:....
推 knml: 我看到興農那套了,沒想到西方也有人有老劉思維...
推 RTY1026:小王有傷史 穆帥 RJ太老~這樣搞我看明年先發會全部大變動꜠
→ RTY1026:今年球季多12場先發~明年三個人一共180天的DL?
推 Alexboo:我不要小王投一休三  這才是他的第二年...
推 anxiousleif:好像死亡筆記本呀  國外也亂抄東方新聞？XD
推 sheff:在AL而且還在EAST 用80%投 是想被打爆媽
推 xen2003:貧打的效應更會被放大
推 chungrew:也要看球員體力吧！亂操投手會有報應的，看看興農吧
推 hornets1221:其實我在想有沒有可能Proctor跟Farns抓一個先發
推 asdfzx:一整個豪洨.........
推 gerkk:要這樣玩不如讓先發的在第三天上來中繼
推 fosa:感謝翻譯，怎麼說這也是一個想法，但我也覺這樣不好
推 djcc:所以他永遠不會是mlb教練  只能終日寫寫文章  混口飯吃
推 fizeau:乾脆直接把Hughes跟Clippard叫上來
→ fizeau:他們兩個雖然經驗不夠至少應該不會像Chacon爆成那樣
推 pathfinder:他們可能會被屠殺，然後信心大失，一跌不起。
推 fizeau:我覺得怎麼也不會比目前4、5號先發爆更慘
推 pathfinder:重點在可能會毀掉未來十年的王牌 ._.
推 Boyzone:小王要休息 畢竟是受過傷的
→ Boyzone:為了爭一時可能毀了一輩子
→ Boyzone:該不會原文作者撿到傳說中的東方筆記本吧....
推 weinine32:小王去年才 進入傷兵名單耶
推 fizeau:但是這樣也許小王又增加幾次勝投數...嘿嘿
→ fizeau:有機會增加
推 REXA:瘋了...........................................
推 nail486:最好這種東西可以1+1=2啦...這麼好算就不用打了...
→ gerkk:這就是為什麼Torre是教練,而有人是記者 ?
推 VaROne:這篇文章不該這時候出現!唉....
推 CCM:問個假設問題好了，假如2007年有拿到下面五位先發投手
→ CCM:Mussina, Johnson, Wang, Zito, 松阪
→ CCM:Rotation 可能會怎麼排？(略過春訓成績問題)
推 pyrogen:就照你的排～ 不過按輩份大個兒還是第一先發的不二人選
推 RTY1026:樓上的~你麻幫幫忙~這種Rotation不看春訓成績要麼排?
推 pyrogen:哈哈 光看這樣的SP就知道可能很低啦
推 pyrogen:Zito大熱門+年輕，overpay的機會很高，松阪也不便宜
推 pathfinder:Bora$加持，沒有選手會便宜...XD
推 CCM:所以明年洋基頂多Zito跟松阪簽一個而已？
推 pyrogen:1.2007要留Mussina得付17M  2.Shefield也得付13M
→ pyrogen:Chacon+Dotel+Villon+Sturtze不續約只能清出9.1M
→ pyrogen:想要簽下兩個千萬左右的SP，除非請Pavano滾蛋或賣掉
→ pyrogen:明年洋基要付Pavano 10M，天啊～～
推 CCM:Pavano....明年要是還這種病懨懨的樣子，還是不能賣嗎？
→ pyrogen:不知Shffield的option可不可以反悔...
→ pyrogen:Sheffield的option值13M
推 peegoo:回C大 要賣也要有人買阿 Pavano只能賣去打擊練習場吧
推 pathfinder:老薛的還沒執行 ._.
推 pathfinder:Pavano 回的來卻沒好表現在表他也成，現在最好祈禱他
→ pathfinder:回的來，他是我們七月後唯一的投手援兵了....
推 off0131:投一休三．．那我上班更操了 囧
推 ju8633:找個鄉民去暗殺Pavano，也許這還快一點..