Jim Barr 生涯
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Jim-Barr.shtml
※ 引述《VaROne ()》之銘言：
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30
: The Legend of Jim Barr
: and how he relates to Brian Anderson
: The Giants recently traded for Robb Nen, putting to rest the rumors that
: Julian Tavarez would have to be the team's closer in 1998. Nen struck out 81
: batters in 74 innings last season, and has struck out more than a batter per
: inning throughout his major-league career.
: The alternative, Julian Tavarez, is three years younger than Nen, and struck
: out 38 batters last year in 88.1 innings. Bluntly, that's not a very good
: ratio of K to IP.
: Why should this matter, and what does it tell us about Arizona's #1 draft
: pick, Brian Anderson? Strikeouts per se aren't important; they're only
: minutely better than other outs, at the most. But what they indicate about a
: pitcher is always important. A pitcher who can strike out a high rate of
: batters is capable of dominating those hitters. Now, if he also walks a
: zillion guys, or he gives up a million homers, or he just stinks period, then
: it doesn't matter how many he strikes out. But it indicates the potential for
: domination because he can consistently fool a good number of major league
: batters.
: It's very hard for a pitcher to be successful without striking out a decent
: number of batters. Pitchers who go 14-5 one season but don't strike out many
: batters are often the ones who have "disappointing" seasons the next year.
: Maybe the strikeouts measure "potential for dominance" or something. To be
: honest, I don't really know, but we do know that they correlate nicely with
: future success.
: This might not seem obvious at first, because great pitchers who don't
: strike out tons of guys still strike out more hitters than we think. Greg
: Maddux doesn't strike out lots of guys compared to studs like Pedro Martinez
: or Randy Johnson, for instance, and we know what a brilliant finesse pitcher
: he can be, so we tend to think of him as something other than a "power
: pitcher." But Maddux, now in his 30s, still struck out 6.8 batters per 9
: innings last year. When you think of Greg Maddux, you should think of a
: pitcher who gets people out, not merely a guy who throws puffballs with
: perfect placement, living off of his defense. Obviously, Greg Maddux is not
: an example of a low-strikeout pitcher who is nonetheless successful.
: Eventually a pitcher begins to age and their K/IP ratios start to drop. And
: here's why a young pitcher with a low K/IP is unlikely to have a long career.
: Because if you start out striking out a batter an inning, when you get old
: you'll still strike out 7 per 9 innings, and you can still dominate at that
: level. But if you start out at 5-per-9, when you fade, you'll be down to
: 3-per-9 innings, and there just aren't any guys out there who can be
: consistently successful while striking out 3 guys per 9 innings. So the
: pitchers who will have the longest careers, all else being equal, are the
: power pitchers (which we identify partly by their number of strikeouts). The
: other guys are already walking a tightrope, one that power pitchers won't
: walk until later in their career. When the power pitcher is 30, he'll have to
: learn how to pitch differently, but when the other guys are 30, they'll be
: out of the league. They don't have the margin for error that the power
: pitchers have.
: That is, Julian Tavarez is unlikely to have a long career unless there's
: some reason we haven't thought of for why he throws so hard (power pitcher)
: but strikes out so few (not a power pitcher).
: Giants fans are often reminded of the career of Jim Barr, who is supposed to
: be a counter-example to the above argument. Barr didn't strike anyone out but
: he had a nice long career. How do you explain that?
: Well, Barr makes my point: he was a fine, even masterful, pitcher with great
: control whose career lasted *only* 12 seasons because once the fade started,
: he had nothing to fall back on. Through 1976, Barr had gone 62-63 with fine
: ERAs (three times under 3.00) for some bad teams. Entering the 1977 season he
: was 29 years old, coming off a 15-12 2.89 season. His control was so good
: he'd led the NL in BB/IP once. He had that record ... what was it,
: consecutive batters retired? This was a guy who you'd think was a fine
: pitcher.
: His K/9 in 1976: 2.7. His record in 1977: 12-16 4.77.
: He stuck around five more seasons without much success. If we'd thought
: about baseball in 1977 the way we think about baseball in 1997, we would have
: looked at that K/9 and said "this guy has gotten pretty much everything he
: can out of his abilities, he's a prime candidate for a fall." We didn't think
: that way then, but we do now.
: What does this have to do with the Arizona Diamondbacks? Young lefty Brian
: Anderson struck out 22 batters in 48 innings last year. He has made 58
: major-league appearances so far, 53 as a starter, and his K/IP ratios have
: been very consistent:
: 1993: 3.2 (11.1 innings)
: 1994: 4.2 (101.2 innings)
: 1995: 4.1 (99.2 innings)
: 1996: 3.7 (51.1 innings)
: 1997: 4.1 (48 innings)
: Very consistent, and not very good. If Jim Barr is any indication, by the
: time the Diamondbacks are good enough to contend (let's be optimistic and say
: three years), Brian Anderson will be doing mop-up chores out of the bullpen.
: Which is why you can count me as one person who thinks Tony Saunders (8.2 K/9
: last year) makes a better #1 pick than Brian Anderson.
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