[Wang] The Legend of Jim Barr

[VaROne ()]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30

The Legend of Jim Barr
and how he relates to Brian Anderson



 The Giants recently traded for Robb Nen, putting to rest the rumors that
Julian Tavarez would have to be the team's closer in 1998. Nen struck out 81
batters in 74 innings last season, and has struck out more than a batter per
inning throughout his major-league career.

 The alternative, Julian Tavarez, is three years younger than Nen, and struck
out 38 batters last year in 88.1 innings. Bluntly, that's not a very good
ratio of K to IP.

 Why should this matter, and what does it tell us about Arizona's #1 draft
pick, Brian Anderson? Strikeouts per se aren't important; they're only
minutely better than other outs, at the most. But what they indicate about a
pitcher is always important. A pitcher who can strike out a high rate of
batters is capable of dominating those hitters. Now, if he also walks a
zillion guys, or he gives up a million homers, or he just stinks period, then
it doesn't matter how many he strikes out. But it indicates the potential for
domination because he can consistently fool a good number of major league
batters.

 It's very hard for a pitcher to be successful without striking out a decent
number of batters. Pitchers who go 14-5 one season but don't strike out many
batters are often the ones who have "disappointing" seasons the next year.
Maybe the strikeouts measure "potential for dominance" or something. To be
honest, I don't really know, but we do know that they correlate nicely with
future success.

 This might not seem obvious at first, because great pitchers who don't
strike out tons of guys still strike out more hitters than we think. Greg
Maddux doesn't strike out lots of guys compared to studs like Pedro Martinez
or Randy Johnson, for instance, and we know what a brilliant finesse pitcher
he can be, so we tend to think of him as something other than a "power
pitcher." But Maddux, now in his 30s, still struck out 6.8 batters per 9
innings last year. When you think of Greg Maddux, you should think of a
pitcher who gets people out, not merely a guy who throws puffballs with
perfect placement, living off of his defense. Obviously, Greg Maddux is not
an example of a low-strikeout pitcher who is nonetheless successful.

 Eventually a pitcher begins to age and their K/IP ratios start to drop. And
here's why a young pitcher with a low K/IP is unlikely to have a long career.
Because if you start out striking out a batter an inning, when you get old
you'll still strike out 7 per 9 innings, and you can still dominate at that
level. But if you start out at 5-per-9, when you fade, you'll be down to
3-per-9 innings, and there just aren't any guys out there who can be
consistently successful while striking out 3 guys per 9 innings. So the
pitchers who will have the longest careers, all else being equal, are the
power pitchers (which we identify partly by their number of strikeouts). The
other guys are already walking a tightrope, one that power pitchers won't
walk until later in their career. When the power pitcher is 30, he'll have to
learn how to pitch differently, but when the other guys are 30, they'll be
out of the league. They don't have the margin for error that the power
pitchers have.

 That is, Julian Tavarez is unlikely to have a long career unless there's
some reason we haven't thought of for why he throws so hard (power pitcher)
but strikes out so few (not a power pitcher).

 Giants fans are often reminded of the career of Jim Barr, who is supposed to
be a counter-example to the above argument. Barr didn't strike anyone out but
he had a nice long career. How do you explain that?

 Well, Barr makes my point: he was a fine, even masterful, pitcher with great
control whose career lasted *only* 12 seasons because once the fade started,
he had nothing to fall back on. Through 1976, Barr had gone 62-63 with fine
ERAs (three times under 3.00) for some bad teams. Entering the 1977 season he
was 29 years old, coming off a 15-12 2.89 season. His control was so good
he'd led the NL in BB/IP once. He had that record ... what was it,
consecutive batters retired? This was a guy who you'd think was a fine
pitcher.

 His K/9 in 1976: 2.7. His record in 1977: 12-16 4.77.

 He stuck around five more seasons without much success. If we'd thought
about baseball in 1977 the way we think about baseball in 1997, we would have
looked at that K/9 and said "this guy has gotten pretty much everything he
can out of his abilities, he's a prime candidate for a fall." We didn't think
that way then, but we do now.

 What does this have to do with the Arizona Diamondbacks? Young lefty Brian
Anderson struck out 22 batters in 48 innings last year. He has made 58
major-league appearances so far, 53 as a starter, and his K/IP ratios have
been very consistent:

1993: 3.2 (11.1 innings)
1994: 4.2 (101.2 innings)
1995: 4.1 (99.2 innings)
1996: 3.7 (51.1 innings)
1997: 4.1 (48 innings)

 Very consistent, and not very good. If Jim Barr is any indication, by the
time the Diamondbacks are good enough to contend (let's be optimistic and say
three years), Brian Anderson will be doing mop-up chores out of the bullpen.
Which is why you can count me as one person who thinks Tony Saunders (8.2 K/9
last year) makes a better #1 pick than Brian Anderson.



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推 leddy:意思是小王可能生涯不長, 且明年爆的機會不小
推 leejones:現在就預測明年？會不會太...明天會如何有誰可以知道 XD
推 joke1:反正就看球嘛..預測好像也沒有太大的意義
推 hpk89:我可以想像以後王有可能會變成一種很好的例子(or例外)來當
→ hpk89:那些K/9不好看但是成績還不錯的選手的參考,就像本文中的Barr
→ hpk89:K/9很爛但是長期表現好且穩定的例子  總有人要起個頭的嘛!
推 leddy:Barr是控球大師，但30歲以後k/9差表現就不是很好了(很穩定)
→ leddy:而且生涯"只有"12年
推 newbornme:Barr 不到 30 歲以前三振能力就不到 3.5 的 k/9 了。
推 leddy:我沒說30歲後K/9差啊，內文說30歲是個分野，30歲後不得不改
→ leddy:投球策略(或許是球速變慢，體力等等)，此時K/9差表現就不會
→ leddy:很好了, 即便Barr這種控球大師也是如此
推 johntw:要預測小王明年"爆"的機會不小,總得先把"爆"的定義訂出來吧
→ johntw:小王這兩年在大聯盟的防禦率大約在4左右,爆是指4.5以上嗎?
推 johntw:如果防率禦升高到4.2~4.3,算爆嗎?
推 leddy:the ones who have "disappointing" seasons the next year
推 newbornme:近期最類似的例子就是 Silva 了。
推 johntw:最有趣的是,這篇文章最後談到的兩個人,Brian Anderson的投
→ johntw:球生涯比Tony Saunders長也比較成功..
推 newbornme:Brian Anderson也不是生涯多麼優秀的投手，只是例子而已
推 pipiann:K/9不高的人很難生涯長~~~可是小王才第一年 K/9可能長出來