推 Romulus:其實Proctor會B掉都是心態問題！ 08/31 16:44
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CGFR: Feed contains invalid format.more In Depth... RSS Thursday, August 31,
2006
Examining the other side of baseball stats
Filed under: Chien-Ming Wang Scott Proctor— Benjamin Kabak @ 1:05 am
Woulda. Shoulda. Coulda.
That’s the rallying cry for the Yankees tonight. One out nay, one pitch away
from a doubleheader sweep of the Yankees, Scott Proctor’s inability to harness
his stuff meant a split. While the night game loss killed, all in all, it was
a good day. Chien-Ming Wang (more on him soon) dominated, and the Sinking
Ship in Boston lost another game. That’s two off the magic number, and now
any combination of 23 Yankee wins and Red Sox losses give us the division
again.
But on to the topic at hand baseball stats and what they can’t tell us.
(By the way, I was planning on writing this post before I saw Rob Neyer’s
latest. Don’t steal my thunder, Rob!)
I like to fancy myself a member of the baseball statistical revolution, but I
would hardly call myself a flag-waving member of that group. I understand the
stats that Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times and various other outlets
have developed. I appreciate seeing the numerical side of baseball and the
way GMs like Billy Beane go about their jobs.
But at the same time, I don’t feel that scouts are wrong and that there is
no place for people who watch the game and intuit a player’s ability or,
more importantly, their mental make-up. Today’s Yankees game provide us
important glimpses into that world.
Let’s start with Game 1. By all stathead accounts, Chien-Ming Wang should
not be 16-5 with a 3.66 ERA. He should not be first in wins and 9th in ERA.
He should not be a potential Cy Young candidate and the Yanks’ current ace.
Why not? Because he doesn’t strike anyone out.
One aspect of statistical evaluation of pitchers holds that those pitchers
who strike out a lot of batters will succeed. In general, pitchers will get a
certain number of outs on batted balls and they’ll give up a certain number
of hits (and runs). The other outs will come from a strike outs, and the
fewer chances an opponent has to put the ball in play, the more outs a
pitcher will record.
Well, all you need to know about Chien-Ming Wang’s strike out numbers is
that Yankees reliever Scott Proctor has 13 more strike outs in 110 ten fewer
innings. Wang, as Neyer pointed out today, has struck out just 2.98 men per 9
innings. He shouldn’t be this good.
But in other statistical areas, Wang’s success begins to emerge. First, he
has given up home runs at a ridiculously low rate of 1 every 18 innings, and
his batting average agains on balls in play is .291, perfectly average
according to Baseball Prospectus. That ranks him 28 out of the 43 AL pitchers
who qualify for the ERA title (give or take a few pitchers).
Meanwhile, a stat that the Hardball Times tracks shows us why Wang is so good
when common wisdom holds he shouldn’t be: He’s gotten a whopping 63.7 % of
his outs on ground balls (before Game 1). The league average is 44 percent.
Wang’s killer sinker is really that good.
Would a statistical analyst see this? Maybe if he looked closely enough, but
he would probably chalk that up to luck and an outlier year. A scout, on the
other hand, watching the game in person, would see Wang’s sinker and would
know why he’s been so good. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to
anyone who watches Wang. Scouting ain’t dead yet.
And that brings me to Game 2 of the double header, featuring a meltdown by
Scott Proctor. Now, over the last few weeks, I’ve written a lot about Alex
Rodriguez’s mental mess and in this week’s Village Voice, Allan Barra
penned an interesting and entertaining look at A-Rod’s state of mind. (In
game 2, by the way, Rodriguez was pressing. He saw just 8 pitches in 4 ABs
and swung at the first pitch twice resulting in two pop-ups.)
But I digress. On to Scott Proctor. The Yanks were rolling along tonight into
the 9th inning when Scott Protor, 0-for-6 in save situations this year,
appeared. He got an out, gave up a walk, got an out, gave up a walk, gave up
a three-run home-run, gave up the game, the sweep, the feel-good afternoon.
Why? Well, Peter Abraham had this from Proctor: “Scott Proctor was furious
with himself after the game. ‘I need to attack hitters,’ he said. ‘It’s
embarrassing.’”
To me, it seems that when Proctor steps on to the mound in the 9th inning,
his mental game takes over. He can’t locate his pitches; he can’t get out
bad hitters; he can’t do what he does so well in the 7th. Here, the question
is all about make-up. Stats can tell you that Proctor has really come into
his own for the most part this year. He’s become the go-to guy in the 7th
for Joe Torre.
But something about the 9th inning makes it different. In a one-run game, is
it about the pressure of self-expectations? Is it about a murmur from the
crowd? Those last three outs are always elusive, and they can kill careers.
Just ask Mark Wholers.
Again, here’s where watching comes into play. Someone watching the game last
night could see how uncomfortable Proctor was on the mound. He just didn’t
look confident. He was tugging at his cap (which Steve Lombardi thinks might
be indicative of something else); he was missing his spots, mumbling to
himself. He couldn’t deal with pitching in the 9th, and it made me
appreciate Mariano Rivera all the more.
So that’s my story tonight: As much as I love numbers and playing with
stats, watching the games count just as much. And today, I’ll be watching
the game from the tier reserve. Here’s hoping the Yanks can solve Bonderman
and the Unit can put together a good outing.
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