[討論] Sizing Up the Competition (AL East)

[newyorkgirl (紐約女孩)]

http://yankees.mostvaluablenetwork.com/general/sizing-up-the-competition/

It's been a relatively quiet off-season for the Yankees, other than the
Johnny Damon signing. That was to be expected, given that so many of the
Bombers' roster spots were spoken for to begin with. But some of the other
AL East teams have been much noisier this off-season. How do they stack up
against the Yankees?

對洋基來說...除了簽了Johnny Damon這個合約之外...這是一個安靜的off-season...
洋基的陣容看起來是可被期待的...但是其他美聯東區球隊在這個off-season...
相對來說是熱鬧的...他們究竟是怎麼累積兵馬來對抗洋基呢?

First, let's put the Yankees themselves in perspective. This team is going to
score some runs, no doubt about it. They'll be one of the top offenses in the
AL. There are still some concerns, though. Was Jorge Posada's 2005 the
beginning of a decline or an off year? Even if Jason Giambi has shed the
problems that dogged him in 2004, he is 35, and guys of his body type tend
to break down around that age anyway. A-Rod is likely to slip at least a
little from last year. Gary Sheffield is 37 and has struggled with nagging
injuries the past two seasons. Robinson Cano, though promising, still has
problems differentiating between the strike zone and a zip code. And if
Bernie Williams gets significant DH time, he will be a serious drag on the
offense. Still, it is unlikely that all of these potential setbacks will
come to pass. And if only a few of them do (which is likely) the Yankees
will still score.

首先讓我們來檢討洋基自己本身...不用懷疑這個球隊的得分能力...他們的進攻...
在美國聯盟來講是頂級的...雖然是這樣...但仍然有一些問題要關心...

Posada在2005的表現只是一年低潮或是下坡的起點? Giambi在2004的問題仍舊困擾他嗎?
他已經35歲了...這種體型在這年齡是不是會造成影響? A-Rod可能比去年還下滑一些?
Sheff也有37歲...這兩個球季來常發生傷勢...Cano雖然不錯但在好球判斷還有問題...
Bernie多出時間打DH...進攻層面對他來說會是一個嚴肅的課題...

這堆潛在的問題...不太可能所有挫折都能夠通過...假設他們可以將一些問題改善...
洋基的得分能力就會展現出來...

Pitching is more problematic. At 42, it's hard to expect a big year from
Randy Johnson. Injuries and age hampered him last year, though he did
eventually overcome a serious case of longball-itis to pitch like the ace he
has been late in the year. At 37, Mike Mussina looks even older than RJ,
after two injury-plagued and often ineffective seasons. Carl Pavano was
considerably worse than his ERA made him look even when he was healthy last
year. Outside of the friendly confines of Florida's fish park, Pavano has
given no indication he can be a reliable starter. Chien-Ming Wang has proven
he cannot stay healthy. Last year was only the latest in a string of serious
arm injuries. Anything the Yankees get from him is a blessing. Though I am
not as put off by his microscopic strikeout rate as some are (his minor
league track record leads me to believe he will improve it) and I think he
will be effective when he can take the mound, he is simply too brittle.
We'll try to pretend Jaret Wright just never happened. Shawn Chacon seems to
have turned his career around in the Bronx. Again, I'm more inclined to view
him favorably than many in the analysis community, but even with the Yankees
last year, he walked 66 against only 79 strikeouts. Those numbers have to
improve substantially for him to continue to be productive.

投手來說問題就更多拉...

RJ年齡跟受傷去年困擾他...雖然最後他克服了當一個ace該有的多投球數...
但是已經42歲大到很難再被期待...
Moose也37歲了...球季中兩度因為受傷而離開輪值...表現看起來好像比RJ還老...
Pavano去年一開始是健康的時期...但那時候他的防禦率卻比他從前表現還要糟糕...
離開了友好的佛羅里達...他還沒證明自己是個可靠的先發投手...
Wang表現說明他無法維持健康...去年下半年出現胳膊受傷...雖然他的三振率不出色...
但從他小聯盟的表現來看相信能改進...現在有關洋基的評論對他來說都是祝福...
簡單來說他太易碎了...他必須改善投球過程...
Wright就假裝沒發生過...
Chacon似乎到了布朗區扭轉他的球員生涯...但其他的評論沒有論去年投了66個保送...
卻只有79次三振...改善這個數字對他來說會是有利的...

That is a super-high risk starting rotation. It could be very good, but an
awful lot has to break right for that to happen. More likely is a repeat of
last year, and the Yankees will have to hope they can plug in an Aaron Small
- or Chacon-like performance from somewhere (maybe Philip Hughes?) in order
to be league average.

高風險的先發輪值...它有可能表現傑出...但也要解除這堆問題的發生才有可能實現...
去年的狀況如果又發生...洋基就必須祈禱能在外面找到Small跟Chacon表現的投手...

The bullpen is also a wild card. Mariano Rivera has shown no signs of
slowing, and 36 isn't terribly old for a one-inning pitcher. He has shown
signs of being less able to extend himself, but that's to be expected.
Bottom line, his 2005 was a great year, and even a little regression to the
mean for him leaves him at the top of the reliever pile. But behind him,
things get stickier. Kyle Farnsworth has alternated good and bad years. That
makes it tough to rely on him as the main setup man. The rest of the pen is
a motley crew, not very encouraging. The presence of both Ron Villone and
Mike Myers will tempt Joe Torre into over-managing for lefty-righty matchups
with unremarkable pitchers, including also Tanyon Sturtze, Small and possibly
Scott Proctor. The results of that are not something I look forward to.
Octavio Dotel might help, but then again, he might not. Who knows what kind
of pitcher will return from that injury, or when that return might actually
happen?

牛棚仍然是有問題存在...

Mo沒有顯示出他在下滑...而且36歲對一個一場比賽投一局的投手來說並不算老...
他有跡象顯示出他沒辦法延續第二局的投球...雖然這樣但他還是被期待的...
在2005年是了不起的一年...沒有退化的跡象證明他是偉大的救援投手...
但在他之後...其他投手才是真的問題所在...
Farnsworth每年表現都是好壞在交替...今年他要擔任主要setup的工作...

牛棚的其他成員有些混雜...看起來不太有把握...

Villone跟Myers是Torre要來對付左打者的投手...連同Sturtze, Small, 甚至Proctor...
這結果不是值得期盼的...Dotel加入也許有些幫助...但另一方面可能一點幫助也沒...
誰知道從傷勢走回投手丘的投手會是什麼樣子...也不知道回來後會發生什麼事情...

The pitching looks iffy, and the defense, while it will be helped immensely
by Damon replacing Bernie in center, is still far from a strength. And once
again, the Yankees, despite a bloated payroll, have an appalling lack of
depth. Injuries will hurt them a great deal because it will mean increased
playing time for the likes of Miguel Cairo, Kelly Stinnett, the rotting
corpse that was once Bernie Williams and Bubba Crosby.

投手看起來怪怪的...至於防守方面...當Damon替換Bernie可能會有一些改善...
可是仍舊是個未知數...
洋基又是一年有驚人的薪資...卻有著缺乏深度的替補球員...有球員受傷後代表著...
Cairo跟Stinnett這些新進球員...還有Bernie與Crosby將要接替這重要的先發...

But unless the Yankees see a great deal of bad luck, this team is very
similar to last year's brand, and that was good enough for 95 wins. They can
reasonably be expected to win somewhere between 90 and 96 this year, barring
a lot of bad things happening. Will that be enough to hold off the rest of
the division?

除非洋基有著很多的壞運氣...不然這支球隊跟去年是類似的...而且足夠好到拿95勝...
他們可以合理的推估今年可以贏到90場到96場之間的勝場數...
問題在假如壞事不斷發生...這支洋基隊是不是有資格拿下這個分區...

I gotta tell you, I love the future for, believe it or not…the Devil Rays.
They have an awesome collection of young talent. Even this year, and
certainly by 2007, they should be able to hit with anyone. They need a good
deal of pitching help, but in Scott Kazmir and Chad Orvella, they have a
young stud in both the rotation and the pen to build around. With Chuck
LaMar finally deposed down in Tampa, good things could be happening for them.
They can't compete in 2006, but they're the team to watch down the road.

告訴你...我期待魔鬼魚的未來...他們有一群具有天份而且令人敬畏的年輕球員...
今年跟2007年他們足以擊敗任何一支球隊...他們需要很多投球上面的幫助...
但是Kazmir跟Orvella他們在輪值和牛棚間仍在修正...當Chuck LaMar最後來到坦帕灣...
對他們來說會是一件好事...他們可能無法在2006競爭...但他們看的到未來的路...

Disposing of Tampa, the next team to not take seriously is Baltimore. They
have a couple of hitters, but an overall unimpressive lineup. We'll see this
year how much of that ol' Braves magic was Leo Mazzone himself and how much
was the Rocking One in combination with Bobby Cox. But no matter how much
magic Mazzone can work, he needs arms to work with at some point. He has a
few, but not enough to overcome the mediocre lineup the O's will be fielding,
even in the best-case Mazzone scenario. That's two teams easily dismissed.

看完坦帕灣...下一個球隊不用認真看待的巴爾的摩...他們是有兩三位打者...
但整體印象不深刻的陣容...可以看的是勇士的魔術教練Leo Mazzone發揮多少功力...
也可以看他與Bobby Cox組合結束後會有多大影響...但不管Leo Mazzone有多大能力...
他還是需要有投手來調配...他是有一些但還不夠的選手來克服金鶯的平庸...

這是兩支可以輕鬆對待的隊伍...

I have no doubt that more than a few pundits will be picking the Blue Jays
to topple the two Big Boys in Boston and New York this year. I can't say I'm
sold. I do think the Jays have the best pitching in the division. To some
extent, that's damning with faint praise, though. None of these teams are
going to be confused with Oakland, Chicago or Anaheim with their pitching.
But the Jays have a solid top 3 (Roy Halladay's injury being to his shin
means he should come back just fine), a decent back of the rotation and a
deep, reliable, if unspectacular bullpen. The imports of Troy Glaus and
Lyle Overbay add some power. But Glaus has health questions, and Overbay
isn't a great power hitter, especially for a first baseman. The Jays had
serious problems scoring runs at times last year, and they're still going to
need some of their 2005 disappointments to step back up (Alex Rios, Eric
Hinske, Vernon Wells, Russ Adams) if they want to challenge the Yankees.
Plus, while adding AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan (what, CJ Nitkowski was busy?)
helps the pitching staff, the loss of Orlando Hudson will offset a chunk of
that gain. Hudson is in Bill Mazeroski territory as a defender, and that will
be felt. Plus, Burnett has struggled to stay healthy and, while he's a good
pitcher, he was also seriously over-valued in this year's market. Bottom
line, I think the Jays did more splashing than improving. They'll be a good
team, solidly above .500, and they'll hang around much of the year, but I
don't see them putting up a serious challenge to the Yankees.

沒有疑義的...許多專家說藍鳥會足以撼動波士頓跟紐約...
藍鳥有分區最佳的投手陣容...某些程度上可以稱讚...雖然不像運動家 白襪 天使...
但藍鳥有名列前矛的實力(Halladay受傷只影響到走路...回來應該還是很出色...)
加上輪值的後面還有可靠的牛棚...

Glaus和Overbay簽進來增加了攻擊力...但是Glaus有健康的問題...
Overbay也不是真的巨砲型一壘手...藍鳥在去年常有的是得分上面的問題...
而且他們需要2005那些令人失望的選手(Rios, Hinske, Wells, Adams)...
假如他們想要向洋基挑戰...這些是癥結...

當然他們增加了AJ Burnett和BJ Ryan...幫助他們改善了投手群的體質...
少了Orlando Hudson的損失也跟著抵銷掉...
Burnett要注意健康問題...雖然他是個好投手...但他的價值市場上也是被高估的...

最後...藍鳥是一支好球隊...也可以很穩定的把勝率提升到五成以上...
而且這個實力將維持許多年...但雖然這樣還是看不見他們足夠來挑戰洋基...

No, that challenge will come from where it traditionally does, and that's
Boston. For all the hollering when Damon signed with the Yankees, Coco Crisp
is essentially the same player Damon is. Crisp has a little more power, a
little less OBP, but when you take each player's environment the past two
years into account, there is little difference between them. Damon's clearly
the better defender, though the fact that Crisp can throw the ball a little
makes up some of that ground. In getting Crisp, the Sox essentially shifted
their problem from center, where they had no solution, to shortstop. Right
now, that's a serious hole with Alex Gonzalez at short in Beantown, but young
Dustin Pedroia should be along in due course to relieve us of our fun at
watching the out machine playing short for Boston. Mark Loretta is a nice
little upgrade at second, and some combination of Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell
and JT Snow at the corners should provide decent support for David Ortiz and
Manny Ramirez. The Sox will score. Unlike the Yankees, who feature a starting
lineup that, at least on paper, may be the most fearsome they have fielded in
years, the Red Sox starters are not quite as good, but they have far better
depth, with guys like Tony Graffanino, Youkilis, Dustan Mohr and old stathead
favorite Roberto Petagine.

洋基的挑戰...今年還是來自最傳統的球隊...那就是波士頓...

當洋基簽了Damon後...簽的Coco Crisp其實跟Damon是同樣類型的球員...
Coco多了一些長打...少一些上壘...但是拿來考慮這兩個球員時...只有少許區別...
雖然事實上Coco投擲方面較佳...但是Damon是比較好的防守者...
簽到了Coco...襪隊也解決了他們在中外野的問題...將問題拋到游擊手這個位子...

現在...Alex Gonzalez填補了這個空缺...但是年輕的Dustin Pedroia期待的新人...
Mark Loretta是個很好的二壘手...結合Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, JT Snow...
在一三壘選手的組合...可以提供Ortiz與Manny要的支援...

紅襪很能得分...但不同於洋基靠先發陣容攻下...紅襪的缺點在先發不是很好...
但是板凳很有深度...像是Tony, Youkilis, Mohr還有Petagine...

But like the Yankees, the Red Sox starting pitching is a roll of the dice.
Will David Wells even be there? Can they get a healthy and productive season
out of Curt Schilling, or is the fork being stuck in his butt (or ankle, if
you prefer)? Can Matt Clement and Bronson Arroyo overcome the inconsistency
that dogged them last year? And can Josh Beckett finally stay healthy and
live up to his promise? And is that promise really ace quality or has he too
been aided by a great pitcher's park and outstanding defense heretofore in
Florida, like others have?

但是紅襪也跟洋基一樣...先發投手有些問題...

Wells還會待在紅襪嗎? 它能夠丟出健康而且有力的球季嗎? Schilling也是同樣問題...
Clement跟Arroyo可以克服與季初表現不一致的問題嗎?
Beckett是不是可以健康? 最後是否能實現他的諾言? 他真的是ace投手嗎?
還是說在佛羅里達這個有利投手型球場...加上後面有出色的防守者才有這樣表現?

But the bullpen is a different story. While there's no Mo here, Keith Foulke
should be back and healthy in 2006, giving Boston a top-flight reliever. But
his supporting cast is much better than the one Rivera has. With a nice mix
of solid veterans (Mike Timlin, David Riske, Julian Tavarez and Rudy Seanez)
and very promising youngsters (Craig Hansen, Jon Papelbon, Lenny DiNardo),
the Sox have a solid and deep bullpen that should be a real strength. This
and their depth are their biggest advantages over a Yankee team that has
stronger front-line players.

紅襪牛棚則跟洋基不太像...因為他們沒有Mo...

Foulke會健康的回來...當紅襪的第一號救援...而其他投手會比Mo有的還要好...
有堅強的角色(Timlin, Riske, Tavarez, Seanez)...還有可以期待的年輕選手(Hansen,
Papelbon, Dinardo)...紅襪真正的力量在結實的牛棚...這樣的深度是他們的優點...
有更強的後盾來對抗洋基...

I expect Boston has at least one more deal to make, while I think the Yankees
are pretty much set for their Opening Day roster. We'll see how all that
shakes out. But for now, the rumors of Boston's demise have been greatly
exaggerated. And for all the hoopla surrounding Toronto, I think 2006 will be
much like the past few years: Yankees and Red Sox down to the wire. And it
will probably count this year, much as it did in 2005. In the West, Oakland
looks primed to take that division, and while I think Anaheim will disappoint
their fans this year, Texas has made huge strides this off-season. The
Central looks extremely competitive, with Cleveland a year older and wiser,
Minnesota finally improving some major weaknesses and the world champion
White Sox not standing pat. The wild card may well not come out of the East
this year. To tell the truth, I hope it doesn't. I'd very much like to see a
real do-or-die race between the Yankees and the Sox in September. Of course,
if the Yankees come in second, you can check back to see how I feel about it
then.

預測紅襪還有至少一個以上的交易要完成...洋基早已經佈好了開幕戰的陣容...
我們可以來看看紅襪會有什麼變動...但是暫時的波士頓困境的謠言是被誇大了...
許多焦點都集中在多倫多...但其實2006江很像過去的幾年...洋基跟紅襪的對決...
今年將會達到2005年所能做到的...

後面是西區跟中區的分析...我就不翻囉...

--

剛上站來嚇一跳...看到好多人寄信到我的信箱...真的很謝謝大家的關心...
這一段時間我是有哭拉...不過是因為昨天看到惡作劇之吻的直樹親了湘琴才哭的...
我是堅強的...跟洋基一樣...不會那麼輕易被擊潰的...

在這裡謝謝大家喲...我就不一一回信了...go go yankees!!

--
           .★*★. .★*★.
     .*★ *.*    ★.*    ★      愛情就像種子一樣
     ★           *       *          並不是每棵種進土裡的種子都會發芽開花
     ★          .'      .'  若是種錯了地方
     ‘*.   　  .       .          再多的期待都沒有用
         ‘ ‧.’‘ ‧.' 

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 220.137.75.22
推 bestard:go go yankees!! 你也新年快樂阿..^__^
推 shineyoung:辛苦囉^^,有個疑惑,為啥每次你翻那麼多,批幣只有一兩銀
推 toddyeh:應該是先翻好再複製貼上吧...要不然斷線囧了
推 Terry1984:辛苦囉 感恩
推 RTY1026:Wright就假裝沒發生過...
推 noonecan:辛苦了
推 uranusjr:其實有自動備份的功能, 斷線也不會損失太多啦 :Q
推 keppel:score應該翻成勝利較佳
推 jww:有些地方翻得怪怪的
推 adu:Wright就假裝沒發生過...
推 heacoun:Wright就假裝沒發生過...
推 luckseven:Wright好可憐...一直被球k...
推 kurtchen36:We'll try to pretend Jaret Wright just never happen
推 SanJoc:Wright就假裝沒發生過..
推 HidekiMatsui:Wright就假裝沒發生過...
推 ttisc:一定要推............
推 DAING:感謝翻譯～