[洋基] Goldman - Why the Yankees can't trade Phil Hughes

[RollingWave (Lost in the Dark)]

Why the Yankees can't trade Phil Hughes...
... with a vague Don McLean reference

By Steven Goldman / Special to YESNetwork.com

大略翻譯一下...有空的可以翻完整點

In a certain sense, the Yankees of the last few years have been living on
borrowed time. Teams that have their entire starting rotation disappear don't
just roll on as if nothing had happened. The pennant-winning 2003 Yankees had
a starting rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, David Wells,
and Jeff Weaver. The next season, all but Mussina were gone, and the Yankees
didn't get a clean chance to offer any of them a solid incentive to stay.


In the group of defectors you had one guy who the Yankees were happy to be rid
of (the quavering Weaver); a first-ballot Hall of Famer who is arguably the
greatest pitcher of all time; a two-time 20-game winner; and an ageless
porcine winner of 200 games.

It would have been one thing to lose one of these pitchers, or even two, but
replacing four starters, particularly these four starters, in a single
offseason and coming out of it with anything like the same quality of arms is a
tall order. In fact, it couldn't be done. Everything that the Yankees have done
with pitching from 2004 through the present day has been in reaction to the end
of the 2003 season — The Day the Pitching Died.

The Yankees made a game effort, replacing the departed with Javier Vazquez, Jon
Lieber, Kevin Brown, Jose Contreras, and Orlando Hernandez. Of the newcomers,
only El Duque, who made only 15 starts after losing a year and a half to injury,
gave the Yankees an ERA below 4.00, and there wasn't a lefty in the bunch. That
team won 101 games but fell apart in the playoffs, in large part because the
pitching fell apart so badly that — it was so bad that it's hard to describe.
If you can imagine "Swan Lake" starring the Hindenburg, well, it was worse than
that.

You will recall what happened next. Contreras was already gone, having been
swapped for Esteban Loaiza, who did a fine impression of Steve Trout. He was
allowed to leave as a free agent, as was Hernandez and Lieber, the latter lost
as the result of a miscalculation of his worth by the Yankees front office.
Vazquez was swapped for Randy Johnson. Brown, still under contract, came back.
The decision to sign Carl "Cervical Collar" Pavano and Jaret Wright was made.

You will recall what happened next: the Yankees used 14 starting pitchers in
2005, including Scott Proctor, Sean Henn, Darrell May, and Tim Redding.

After this season, Mussina's $17 million contract option must be picked up, or
the Yankees can buy him out for $1.5 million. It seems likely he'll be back.
Randy Johnson is signed through 2007, so unless he retires, he'll be back.
Pavano is signed through 2008 (with an option for 2009), so he'll be back.
Wright is signed, although the Yankees may be able to void the last year of his
deal because of a clause related to DL time. Shawn Chacon's contract is up at
the end of the year. Chien-Ming Wang, of course, is not going anywhere.

There you have your projected 2007 rotation: Mussina, Johnson, Wang, Pavano,
and Wright. The correct response is, "Yeah, right," or maybe "Yeah, Wright."
Mussina will be 38, and as great as he's been this year there's no guarantee he
can carry on for another year and a half. Johnson seemingly has little left.
Waiting for Pavano is a fool's game. Wright has been good lately, but the
Yankees treat him like he's a soap bubble. Wang is good, but if he's the best
or second-best pitcher on your staff, you're probably in trouble.

The coming free agent market won't be a big help. The fish will be A's lefty
Barry Zito, who turns 29 next year. After him there isn't much to choose from
 — John Smoltz and Roger Clemens might be out there, but there's no guarantee
that either would come to New York, and in any case, the last thing the Yankees
need to do is bring in more 40-year-old pitchers.

Help, then, is going to come from within. Phil Hughes is pitching like a man
who is going to be ready late this year, not next year. Barring injury —
always a caveat with pitching prospects — he'll be the pitcher the Yankees
can't get on the free agent market.

That is, if he's here. The Yankees definitely need to make a move for an
outfielder to add some production while Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui are
gone, or at least to stand in for them if they don't make it back in time to
contribute. If the price of a Bobby Abreu, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee is
going to include Hughes, then the Yankees need to back off and go for a lesser
player. Flags fly forever, but dealing Hughes will mean seriously
circumscribing the team's options for next year and beyond


大略...

自從2003年的投手群解體後洋基一直無法重建起可靠的投手群。過去兩年來的所有動作其
實都還是受到03年季後的影響

明年 RJ 跟 Pavano都還有約.. Moose的option大概會續，Wright有buyout 也有可能因為
受傷過多而不續約。 Chacon約到期而王建民當然哪都不會去。

所以明年的rotation大概是 RJ / Moose / Pavano / Wang / Wright, 當然這是可笑的。
而相信Pavano 會沒傷沒痛的投完整年的人腦袋有問題，RJ 跟 Moose都垂垂老矣，
王雖然不錯但是要靠他當 1 2 號很不保險。 而Wright最近不錯但是還是個玻璃人。

今年的FA投手不多， 大概只有Zito 不錯，除了他以外可能可以簽下Smoltz或是Clemens
但是一來這兩位都不見得有興趣來二來洋基最不需要的就是更多年過四旬的投手。

而Phil Hughes大概會是最好的upgrade, 只要他不受傷... 他對球隊的幫助大概會比任何
FA都好。

所以洋基雖然現在很需要外野幫忙但是絕對不能換掉Hughes。 不然對球隊的未來會很傷。


--
（在三連戰前面兩場贏後面一場輸了後...)

樂觀洋基迷: 水是半滿，再接再厲

悲觀洋基迷：杯子破了，把所有的prospect都去換掉，開除教練。


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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 61.62.216.242
推 VaROne:現在很難說! 今年外卡看起來不會在東區，過陣子與紅襪再拉
→ VaROne:大到5場以上，Hughes能否留得住就是問題。
推 nickyang:現在講Hughes還太早了...未免太樂觀
推 cleanylee:現在講外卡不在東區好像也太早 :p
推 RollingWave:我覺得明年當五號的預期不會太過...
推 JasonGiambi:外卡不關我們的事 那是隔壁才會去爭
推 RollingWave:外卡不是重點..拼命贏下去就是了
→ RollingWave:而且如果贏WS的機會不大換掉Hughes去追一個空虛的分區
→ RollingWave:也沒意義
→ RollingWave:外卡不是我們自己就能決定的問題..分區掌握比較大
推 Highbrow:Hughes不能放+1
推 pathfinder:雖然 Cashman 打算重建農場，但關鍵仍在 The Boss 身上
→ pathfinder:希望他老人家今年有點耐心這個技能 (￣ー￣；)
推 VaROne:現在就擔心 The Boss 忍不住，又插手 Cashman 的工作。
推 RollingWave:說實在的我覺得拉開的機會不是那麼的大...
→ RollingWave:不過以洋基今年的運氣來看也並非不可能
推 jieping:現在講打不進季後賽...還太早了吧...
推 VaROne:問題不在能否打進季後賽，而是 The Boss 的預期。
推 rebaw:很多人都覺得現在就擔心打不進季後賽太早...
→ rebaw:不過 等到球季末大勢底定 再來討論有意義嗎...
推 chungrew:這只代表樓上你想太多了
→ chungrew:去年這時候有人料到洋基會在ALEast封王嗎？
推 ypwang:把現金先買個好馬讓他去玩  大概就會忘記這邊的交易了