The Devil Rays pulled a fast one on the Mets when they stole
         Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunado. Now
         they seem to have cheated themselves by dealing Joey Gathright
         for J.P. Howell. They could have swapped Gathright for Scott
         Olsen this offseason, which seemed like a no-brainer. Instead,
         they wait a few months and settle on Howell, who at best may be
         a fifth starter? What were they thinking?

         Luke Seghi
         Peoria, Ill.


I like the way J.P. Howell competes, which helped him survive Kansas City's
inexplicable decision to rush him to the majors last summer. But as far as
lefty pitching prospects go, there's no comparision between him and Olsen.
Howell projects as a fourth starter at best, while Olsen could be a No. 2.
Olsen throws 5-6 mph harder than Howell, and his slider has more upside than
Howell's curveball.

However, the Devil Rays never turned down a Gathright-for-Olsen deal this
offseason. They had several discussions with the Marlins about Gathright, and
Tampa Bay floated the idea of swapping him for Olsen or Josh Johnson. But
Florida never made that offer, and decided in the end to sort through its
plethora of pitching prospects in spring training. That was the smart move,
because while the Marlins need a center fielder, it's not like that would be
the final piece to their puzzle.

Also, Gathright is much more valuable in fantasy baseball than real baseball.
He's one of the fastest players in the game and a true stolen-base threat,
but he doesn't offer much else right now. For all his speed, he takes some
iffy routes in center field and is a shaky defender. Offensively, his slap
approach means he has no power and has to be on base a lot to be valuable.

At the time of the trade, Gathright was hitting .201/.305/.240, bringing his
major league career totals to .245/.312/.291. He's already 25, so he's
probably not that far away from the peak of his abilities. He still could
blossom into a solid regular, if he can put up numbers more along the lines
of the .316 average and .390 on-base percentage he posted in the minors, and
if he'll work to improve defensively.

From the Devil Rays' perspective, Gathright wasn't going to play regularly
once Rocco Baldelli returned to the lineup, and they're loaded with
outfielders for the present and the future. Tampa Bay could have tried to
deal Gathright earlier, when his market value was higher. But if the Rays
waited longer, his stock could have plummeted further. Howell isn't Olsen,
but he also could turn out better than any member of Tampa Bay's rotation
with the exception of Scott Kazmir. And on the basis of his fine curveball,
Howell should be at least an effective reliever for the long term.




         What's the word on the Royals signing Luke Hochevar? All the
         talk in Kansas City around draft time was that he was going to
         sign pretty quickly. His agent, Scott Boras, even said that he
         needed to sign quickly. Now there hasn't been a peep for weeks.

         Matt Roberts
         Kansas City


When Hochevar went No. 1 overall in the June draft to the Royals, the
assumption was that the parameters of a deal were already in place. After the
saga of last Labor Day weekend—Hochevar switched agents and accepted a $2.98
million bonus from the Dodgers (who had made him a supplemental first-round
pick), then returned to Boras and reneged on the agreement, accusing the team
of trying to coerce him into signing a bad deal—it figured that he couldn't
afford to hold out for another year. And at the same time, Kansas City would
look more foolish than usual if it couldn't sign the top pick.

But a month later, 24 of the 30 first-rounders have signed and that group
doesn't include Hochevar. The Kansas City Star reported this morning that the
Royals' initial offer was in excess of $4 million, and that the team planned
to raise that in the near future.

There are a number of reasons the negotiations could be lagging. There was
some thought Kansas City might play hardball with Hochevar because he had
less leverage than previous No. 1 overall choices, but that doesn't appear to
be the case. Major League Baseball likes the bigger draft deals to be
consummated later in the summer so they don't affect other negotiations, but
the only other player in the first 10 picks who hasn't come to terms is
Andrew Miller (No. 6, Tigers), who will command a megacontract anyway. It's
also possible that Boras could be waiting to see what Miller signs for in
hopes of getting Hochevar more money. Boras' clients often sign later than
most other draft picks.

Hochevar's situation led to one of the funnier newspaper corrections I've
ever seen posted. In a story the day after the draft, the Los Angeles Times
quoted Hochevar: "Scott had a plan in this, and his master plan definitely
worked. It was tough through it—you go through it and you fight it—but when
it all comes down to it, Scott has a plan for you, and he definitely worked a
miracle in my case."

The Times subsequently reported that they had misquoted Hochevar, who had
referred to God and not his agent.

Hochevar deserves credit for overcoming a long layoff to show the stuff
worthy of going No. 1 in the draft. Pitching in the independent American
Association, he looked like he did early in his junior season at Tennessee.
But his rhetoric is ridiculous.

First, I doubt seriously that God cares much about whether he signed for
$2.98 million with the Dodgers or $4 million or more with the Royals. And
second, Hochevar needs to stop acting like Los Angeles mistreated him.

"I learned a great deal of lessons (from my negotiations)," Hochevar said
after the Royals took him. "I learned what people I can trust, (one of) which
is Scott Boras. In the negotiations with the Dodgers, the scouting director
(Logan White) felt I was not worthy to be paid with the top pitchers in the
draft."

For the record, the $2.98 million bonus would have been the fifth-highest in
the 2005 draft. The only pitcher who received a higher bonus was the Mets'
Mike Pelfrey ($3.55 million, as part of a $5.25 million major league
contract). The Red Sox' Craig Hansen got a $4 million dollar big league deal
with a $1.3 million bonus.





         In two of the last three drafts, the Dodgers have taken the
         consensus top high school lefthander with their first pick:
         Scott Elbert in 2004 and Clayton Kershaw in 2006. At the time
         they were drafted, which player generated the better scouting
         reports? Who do you think has a higher ceiling, and who would
         you chose if you could only pick one?

         Marty Rafter
         Schweinfurt, Germany



Kershaw rated as a better prospect than Elbert did at the time of their
drafts. At the same stage of their careers, we tabbed Kershaw as the best
high school prospect in the nation and No. 6 overall, while Elbert was the
fourth-best prep prospect and No. 12 overall. Here are the scouting reports
we ran on both:

The consensus top high school lefthander in the nation entering the season,
Elbert struck out 17 in his first start and never looked back. His fastball
has sat at 90-93 mph all spring and features plenty of sink, as does his
changeup. He has scrapped his curveball in favor of a slider, which has
reached the mid-80s. He's polished for a prep pitcher and could pass
Vanderbilt's Jeremy Sowers to become the first southpaw drafted, with several
teams picking in the top 10 interested in him. A Missouri recruit, Elbert has
an athletic frame at 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds. He's also among the state
leaders in home runs this spring and was the state's top running back as a
junior. He ran for a state-best 2,449 yards and scored 36 touchdowns in 2002,
carrying Seneca to the state Class 3 semifinals, but gave up football last
fall to focus on baseball.

The draft's best high school prospect, Kershaw projected as only a second- or
third-round pick before blossoming as a senior. He had gotten exposure as a
member of the USA Baseball national junior team and had a solid fastball for
a lefthander at 88-92 mph. Now he has grown into his strong, athletic
6-foot-4, 210-pound frame, and his stuff has taken a leap. He has pitched at
90-96 mph all spring while continuing to pound the bottom of the strike zone.
His curveball has improved even more than his fastball and now ranks a
legitimate second plus pitch. He also has done a better job of repeating his
delivery, giving him more control and command. Kershaw has dominated every
time out, striking out 18 in Highland Park's district opener and breaking the
school's career record for victories by earning No. 32 in his next outing.
The only blip came when he strained an oblique muscle in his regular-season
finale, knocking him out of the first round of the playoffs. The injury won't
affect his draft status—he could go as high as No. 6 overall to the Tigers—
and he was expected to return to action in the second round of the playoffs.

As you can see they were quite similar. Kershaw had a little more size and a
little more stuff, while Elbert was slightly more polished and slightly more
athletic. Based on our reports, Kershaw would have rated an edge over Elbert
in their draft years.

Their ceilings are comparable. If I could pick just one right now, I'd take
Elbert because he's proven himself at a higher level. His stuff and health
have held up in two-plus years in pro ball, and he's currently dominating in
high Class A. He has a 5-5, 2.49 record in 16 games (14 starts) at Vero
Beach, with a 93-38 K-BB ratio in 80 innings. Florida State League hitters
are batting just .194 with four homers against him.