I got into an argument with my buddy the other day over who
was the best high school prospect in the draft over the past
20 years. My personal opinion was Josh Hamilton, but he argued
for Brien Taylor. So that got me to thinking. How would you rank
the top 10 high school prospects over the past 20 years?
Jeff Grover
Indian Harbour Beach, Fla.
Great question, and I enjoyed it so much that I couldn't limit myself to just
10 prospects. I'll give you 15:
1. Todd Van Poppel, 1990 (No. 14, Athletics).
The biggest can't-miss prep prospect of the last 20 years did exactly that.
2. Ken Griffey Jr., 1987 (No. 1, Mariners).
Might have put up better career numbers than almost anyone if injuries hadn't
brought him down.
3. Brien Taylor, 1991 (No. 1, Yankees).
Wayne Coffey of the New York Daily News just did a nice story on what might
have been.
4. Justin Upton, 2005 (No. 1, Diamondbacks).
Started getting billed as 2005's top prospect before he was a high school
sophomore.
5. Josh Hamilton, 1999 (No. 1, Devil Rays).
More on him in a moment.
6. Josh Beckett, 1999 (No. 2, Marlins).
Tampa Bay was torn between the two Joshes; imagine Beckett and No. 14 below
in the same rotation.
7. Matt White, 1996 (No. 7, Giants).
Some scouts called him the best high school pitcher ever, but he never
reached the majors.
8. Alex Rodriguez, 1993 (No. 1, Mariners).
If Seattle manager Lou Piniella had his way, his club would have drafted
Darren Dreifort.
9. Joe Mauer, 2001 (No. 1, Twins).
No longer looks like a consolation prize for Minnesota, which couldn't afford
Mark Prior.
10. B.J. Upton, 2002 (No. 2, Devil Rays).
Has a superstar bat but needs to move off shortstop—for his sake and for
Tampa Bay's.
11. Delmon Young, 2003 (No. 1, Devil Rays).
Eventually will be remembered for a lot more than throwing a bat at an
umpire.
12. Josh Booty, 1994 (No. 5, Marlins).
The nation's best prep baseball and best prep football player that year.
13. Rick Ankiel, 1997 (No. 72, Cardinals).
The only second-rounder on this list, he fell that far in baseball's most
signability-wracked draft ever.
14. Scott Kazmir, 2002 (No. 15, Mets).
Too many teams got hung up on his size and his perceived bonus demands, so he
lasted 15 picks.
15. Corey Patterson, 1998 (No. 3, Cubs).
Getting back on track after relocating to Baltimore in an offseason trade.
If Josh Hamilton displays the same skills he did prior to his
drug problems, where would he rank on the Top 100 Prospects list?
Marty Sheehan
Wilmington, Del.
With the return of Josh Hamilton, what expectations do you have
for him? Do you think he could pick up where he left off and
become one of the game's top hitters? Or have the time, injuries
and drugs left him a shell of his former self? Also, any update
on Rick Ankiel?
Tim Keene
Topsham, Maine
If Hamilton regains his previous skills, he'll zoom right back up toward the
top of the Top 100. He ranked No. 1 overall entering the 2001 season, and it
was hard not to gush about him in our scouting report. Here's what
correspondent Bill Ballew wrote at the time:
Background: The No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft and the recipient of a
$3.96 million signing bonus, Hamilton built on a solid debut season with an
impressive campaign at Class A Charleston. He had little difficulty adjusting
to the South Atlantic League and was the league’s top prospect by season’s
end. Hamilton shared the league’s MVP award with Pirates catcher J.R. House
and was voted as the best batting prospect, power prospect, outfield arm and
most exciting player in a survey of Sally League managers. He was the
youngest player in the Futures Game, where he went 3-for-4. The lone negative
was a right knee injury he sustained after a misstep in pursuit of a fly
ball. Hamilton missed the last month of the minor league season after having
arthroscopic surgery to repair torn cartilage. He recovered in time to
participate in instructional league.
Strengths: Hamilton is a rare breed. He's one of the few players with five
legitimate plus tools that continue to improve every time he takes the field.
His power is increasing as his 19-year-old body matures. Anyone who saw his
over-the-head catch, a la Willie Mays, in the SAL all-star game knows how
much ground he covers in center field. His arm, which produced a mid-90s
fastball while in high school, is one of the strongest among minor league
outfielders. For all his tools, Hamilton’s most important trait may be his
baseball savvy. His knowledge of how to play the game far exceeds his
experience.
Weaknesses: It's hard to find any aspect of Hamilton's game that could be
deemed a weakness. He’s sometimes too aggressive at the plate, resulting in
72 strikeouts against 26 walks in 2000. With less than two full seasons of
professional experience, Hamilton simply needs to remain healthy and get as
many at-bats as possible so he can learn to make adjustments against more
talented competition.
The Future: Hamilton showed during instructional league that there's no reason
to expect him to be anything less than 100 percent by spring training. He was
headed for a promotion at the time of his injury, and chances are he'll bypass
high Class A Bakersfield and move to Double-A Orlando to open 2001. A promotion
to the big leagues could come as soon as 2002.
Obviously, a lot has gone wrong since then. Back and leg injuries limited
Hamilton to 27 games in 2001, and shoulder and elbow woes kept him to 56
games in 2002. Then a series of drug problems led to 3½ years away from the
game, including a suspension from Major League Baseball that lasted from
February 2004 until July of this year.
Can Hamilton get back to where he once was? It would make for a nice story,
but at this point I'll believe it when I see it. He missed so much time and
has so much to overcome, that the odds are just too long. Hamilton, who's now
25, has gone 1-for-5 with a double and walk in his first two games back at
short-season Hudson Valley.
As for Ankiel, who seemed destined to become a star on the mound before
suddenly and shockingly losing his control, he tried to come back as an
outfielder last year and led Cardinals minor leaguers with 21 homers. Scouts
said Ankiel might be able to return to the majors as a platoon outfielder,
but he's dealing with another setback.
Ankiel injured his left knee in an intrasquad game in February, and doctors
hoped to avoid surgery. But when his strained patellar tendon didn't improve,
he went under the knife in late May. He hopes to have a shot at playing
winter ball, but a more realistic ETA for his return is spring training next
year.
I'm very interested in seeing Josh Fields play in the Futures Game.
Could you give us an idea of how he has emerged this year as one
of the top third-base prospects in the game? What do you think
the Sox will do with him, trade him or move him to left field
with Joe Crede on hand? The Twins need a third baseman, so do you
think they'd trade Torii Hunter for Fields?
Bruce Norlander
Bloomington, Minn.
While third base is a loaded position for prospects, Fields was an easy
choice for the Futures Game. He's hitting .333/.413/.567 with 13 homers, 52
RBIs and 16 steals in 77 games at Triple-A Charlotte. From what both Fields
and Charlotte manager Razor Shines say, his improvement has been more mental
than physical. Fields has developed a better approach at the plate, and he's
being more patient and more consistent in all phases of his game. He still
strikes out too much (89 times in 291 at-bats), so he's not a completely
finished product, but he's just about ready for the majors.
And therein lies the problem. Crede is having his best major league season at
the plate, he's a better defender than Fields and he's locked up at least
through 2008, with a possible long-term extension in the works. Fields, who
played quarterback at Oklahoma State, is athletic enough to move to left
field, though Chicago also has plenty of young outfield prospects in the
majors and Triple-A in Brian Anderson, Ryan Sweeney and Jerry Owens.
Fields is producing a lot more at the plate than that trio, however. The best
guess is that Fields makes the move from third base to left field like Carlos
Lee did for the White Sox a few years ago, and gets a chance to give the club
an offensive upgrade next year over Scott Podsednik. An all-star and a World
Series hero a year ago, Podsednik is well below average offensively for a
left fielder and is having a rough year defensively as well.
Fields also could be an attractive piece of trade bait, but the White Sox
don't need a whole lot. Dealing Hunter for Fields might make sense from
Minnesota standpoint, but I can't see Chicago doing that. For all the web
gems he provides, Hunter makes a lot of money ($10.75 million this year, plus
a $12 million option for 2007 to prevent him from becoming a free agent) for
a guy who provides just decent offense for an outfielder.