http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/262990.html


Now that we're racing down the homestretch to finish the 2007 Prospect
Handbook, that's going to take the bulk of my attention. So for the rest of
the month, I'll answer a single question in each Ask BA, along with updating
the draft compensation chart when it's warranted.




         Do you think Josh Hamilton will stick on a major league roster
         through the entire season, or will the Reds have to offer him
         back to the Devil Rays at some point? If so, would Tampa Bay
         take him back?

         Paul Masson
         Quebec City


I've been at Baseball America since the 1988 Winter Meetings, and I don't
remember there ever being as much buzz surrounding a major league Rule 5
draft pick as there was when the Cubs took Hamilton this week and then traded
him to the Reds. The No. 1 overall pick in the 1999 draft, Hamilton ranked
atop our 2001 Top 100 Prospects list before a lengthy series of injuries and
substance abuse derailed a promising career.

Hamilton has just 50 at-bats total over the last four years—all of them
coming in 2006 before he hurt his knee and needed arthroscopic surgery—and
just 89 above Class A since turning pro. So he wouldn't be ready for the
major leagues even if he suddenly regained all the talent he had earlier in
his career.

That said, I could see him sticking with the Reds. For one, they only have
four legitimate big league outfielders on their roster right now and they
reportedly would like to trade one of those, Adam Dunn. Even if Hamilton
can't make the club, it's possible Cincinnati could work out a trade with
Tampa Bay for his rights, which would allow him to go to the minors. The
Devil Rays were upset to lose him, not because he's a prospect, but because
he needs stability and regular playing time. The Rays could decide it's in
his best interests for them to make a deal with the Reds.

If that doesn't happen, Rule 5 mandates that Hamilton spend the entire 2007
season on the major league roster. (Cincinnati could stash him on the
disabled list, but he needs 90 days on the active roster before he could be
sent to the minors in 2008.) To send him down in 2007, the Reds would have to
put him on outright waivers, allowing him to be claimed by any club, which
would face the same guidelines.

Normally, Rule 5 picks have to be offered to their former team for half the
$50,000 draft price, but Hamilton is an exception. Because he already has
been placed on outright waivers, he can declare free agency if he clears them
this time, though he also could accept his reassignment to the Devil Rays.

It's far from certain how all this will play out, but it did send a jolt
through the Rule 5 draft and the potential payoff, however small the
likelihood of the payoff, makes it a low-cost gamble worth taking.