http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/261098.html


I always enjoy looking at the overall minor league leaders early in the
season. Not that performances to this point are statistically significant,
but just to see the names that pop up.

Padres third baseman Justin Leone is making a run at the minor league triple
crown. His .490 batting average at Triple-A Portland ranks first, his seven
homers are tied with Marlins first baseman/catcher Gaby Sanchez for top
honors and his 19 RBIs rank second, just two behind Cardinals third baseman
Rico Washington.

Fourteen pitching qualifiers have spotless 0.00 ERAs, and the best prospects
in that group are all lefthanders: Chuck Lofgren (Indians), Troy Patton
(Astros) and Jonathan Sanchez (Giants). Twelve pitchers already have notched
three victories, most notably former first-round pick Bill Bray of the
Nationals. Top Phillies prospect Cole Hamels and Rockies sleeper Alan Johnson
(a nondrafted free agent signed out of Mississippi State last summer) share
the strikeout lead at 24.




         The draft is happening right now, and every team in the first
         round has decided to base their picks solely on talent, not
         signability or need. Who are the first 20 players off the board?

         Hunter Thornton
         Denton, Texas



There's little consensus on how the talent lines up right now. North Carolina
lefthander Andrew Miller is No. 1 on most draft boards, but after that,
opinion quickly diverges. Here's how I'd stack up the top 20 prospects as of
this moment:

1. Andrew Miller, lhp, North Carolina
Would have been a first-rounder out of high school had he been signable
2. Brandon Morrow, rhp, California
Starting to harness his upper-90s heat and flashing good secondary stuff
3. Tim Lincecum, rhp, Washington
Has blown away college hitters since last summer in Cape Cod
4. Brad Lincoln, rhp, Houston
Should be even more effective on the mound once he gives up hitting
5. Evan Longoria, 3b, Long Beach State
The best position player available, but more of a solid guy than a superstar
6. Drew Stubbs, of, Texas
Scouts love his tools but still have questions about how he'll hit in the
majors
7. Matt LaPorta, 1b, Florida
Turning on the power after being slowed by an oblique strain
8. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Highland Park HS (Dallas)
Top high school prospect after entering year as projected second- or
third-rounder
9. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Nebraska
Regaining his form after early-season bout with triceps tendinitis
10. Kyle Drabek, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS
Could be first prep middle infielder taken—if he weren't so talented on the
mound
11. Max Scherzer, rhp, Missouri
Can't rank him higher until he bounces back from shoulder tendinitis
12. Ian Kennedy, rhp, Southern California
Has lost a little off an already average fastball, but he knows how to pitch
13. Kyle McCulloch, rhp, Texas
Like the Longhorns and Stubbs, getting it going after a slow start
14. Wes Hodges, 3b, Georgia Tech
One of only a handful of position players with a chance to go in the top half
of the first round
15. Daniel Bard, rhp, North Carolina
Would move up if he showed a more consistent breaking ball and success
16. Chris Tillman, rhp, Fountain Valley (Calif.) HS
Classic high school projectable pitcher at 6-foot-7 and 185 pounds
17. Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Missouri State
Doesn't get Scherzer's hype, but he has been the top pitcher in Missouri this
spring
18. Chris Marrero, 3b, Monsignor Pace HS (Opa Locka, Fla.)
Best high school position player has impressive tools but hasn't performed up
to expectations
19. Justin Masterson, rhp, San Diego State
The breakout player in the Cape Cod League summer starts for the Aztecs but
projects as a reliever
20. Mark Melancon, rhp, Arizona
Might be the next college reliever to reach the majors a few months after
signing

For more draft news, check out our updated High School Top 50 Prospects list,
which should be posted on our website in the next day or two.





         I find it surprising that so many people make a fuss about
         lefthander Adam Loewen, while few seem to consider Hayden Penn
         the superior Orioles prospect. Penn had a better year last year,
         at a higher level, and he's six months younger than Loewen. What
         am I missing? Who projects to be better in the long term?

         Gregory Ward
         Atlanta



There's not a huge difference in how the two are perceived. We ranked Loewen
No. 2 and Penn No. 3 on our Orioles Top 10 Prospects list. On our Top 100
Prospects list, Loewen checked in at No. 45 and Penn at No. 81, and that
separation may be seen as greater than we intend it to be.

Loewen gets the edge in our eyes because, in no particular order, he's
lefthanded, throws on more of a downward plane, has more life on his fastball
and owns a better curveball. But you could make a case for Penn on the basis
that he has progressed more rapidly, throws more strikes and is more
polished, and his stuff is nothing to sneeze at. Both guys work regularly in
the low 90s, and while Penn doesn't have Loewen's curveball, he has a better
changeup.

Loewen opened 2006 by turning in the best outing of his pro career: 8 IP, 1
H, 0 BB, 12 K in his Double-A debut. But the inconsistency that has dogged
him came up again when he got knocked around in each of his next two starts.
Penn has yet to pitch this year, as the Orioles have opted to keep him in
extended spring training after shoulder soreness prevented him from building
up his arm strength in big league camp.

In terms of pure projection, Loewen has the brighter future. If it all comes
together, he could be a No. 1 starter. Penn's ceiling is more of a No. 2,
though he's a safer bet to reach his ceiling than Loewen.





         I'm not sure I know the best way to ask this, but hopefully you
         understand and can help me with this question. With the Marlins
         playing Miguel Olivo more than Josh Willingham behind the dish,
         it brings this to mind: How much does the quality of a catcher's
         defensive skills and game-calling ability have to do with how the
         pitchers produce? If they played Willingham, would the pitchers
         be worse off?

         Steve Haws
         Las Vegas



This has been a matter of debate in recent years. Teams value defense,
leadership and game-calling acumen from catchers, though I believe Baseball
Prospectus did a study a few years ago where they found little statistical
evidence that any big league backstops had a consistent, measurable effect on
their team's ERA.

In any case, this really isn't the issue in Olivo vs. Willingham. There
shouldn't be any question that Willingham can hit enough to be a productive
big leaguer. But scouts who have seen him in Triple-A and the majors don't
think he's capable of catching on a regular basis.

Willingham has had knee problems in the past, and they'd only be exacerbated
if he were a regular catcher. He works hard, but he has caught just 192 games
as a pro and doesn't have much time to learn the nuances of the position at
age 27. His catch-and-throw skills are just adequate, and he threw out only
14 percent of basestealers in Triple-A last year. Furthermore, his bat will
be more productive if he avoids the grind of catching.

What the Marlins are doing makes sense. Willingham will be at his best and
healthiest as a regular left fielder or first baseman, and he has enough bat
to play there. His ability to serve as a backup catcher enhances his value.
The defensive edge Olivo offers behind the plate would be negated by
Willingham's offensive superiority, but his ability to hold up behind the
plate is questionable.