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Over at ESPN.com, Rob Neyer has been discussing the merits of hitting
prospects versus pitching prospects. One of his main points is that in
general, hitters are a safer bet to pan out than pitchers. I agree with him
on that. But twice in the last couple of weeks, he has speculated about how
Baseball America rates prospects, specifically hitters versus pitchers. And
his suppositions were wrong in both cases.

In a Feb. 17 column, Rob wrote:

Some years ago, Baseball America's No. 1 and No. 2 prospects were Mark Prior
and Josh Beckett. Now, I could be wrong about this, but I doubt if that would
happen again today. In this year's Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Jim
Callis has six hitters ranked ahead of his top-ranked pitcher (Francisco
Liriano), and he's got only five pitchers listed among the top 20 prospects.

Then in a Feb. 28 chat, Rob fielded this question:

Todd (Boston): Rob, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus seemed to
shy away from ranking pitchers as high this year. Do you think this is
because there are legitimately better hitting prospects or because they fear
another Todd Van Poppel?
Rob Neyer: Pitching prospects aren't as prospecty as hitting prospects.
Simple as that.

While we do acknowledge that hitters are a better percentage play than
pitchers, we evaluate each prospect on their own merits. If Felix Hernandez
didn't exceed 50 innings in the majors last year, he would have been No. 1 on
our Top 100 Prospects list. If there were 2002 versions of Beckett and Prior
(Beckett actually ranked ahead of Prior on our Top 100 back then) in the
minors right now, they would have presented a stiff challenge to Delmon Young
for the No. 1 spot and would have ranked in the top three or four spots.

The reason I didn't rank a lot of pitchers high on my Top 50 list in the
Handbook and BA didn't have a lot of arms at the start of the Top 100 is that
there just aren't as many attractive pitching prospects as usual. I think
it's just cyclical, and not an indication of any pending shortage. But once
you get past the obvious big four (Liriano, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley and
Justin Verlander), there are very, very few pitchers who have stuff, polish,
a track record of success in the upper minors and a clean medical history.
Even Liriano and Cain had serious arm problems in the minors.

In that Feb. 17 column, Rob also references a Baseball Prospectus column from
2002 and notes that the writer (Paul Covert) concluded that a pitcher should
never be ranked among the top five prospects. One thing about that BP column
that Rob didn't mention was the conclusion:

To return to Jim Callis's example: if I had Josh Beckett on my team, and
Callis offered me [Hank] Blalock or [Sean] Burroughs or even Wilson Betemit
for him, would I do the deal? In a heartbeat. Among pitching prospects, there
is no such thing as a sure thing.

That's why it's silly to make definitive statements about pitchers being too
risky. (I'd also submit that among hitting prospects, there's no such thing
as a sure thing either.) This offseason, the Rangers offered Blalock and
their best pitching prospects to the Marlins for Beckett and Mike Lowell's
overpriced contract--and they were turned down. Burroughs got traded for the
immortal Dewon Brazelton. The Braves didn't trust Betemit enough to give him
their wide-open shortstop job, preferring instead to deal blue-chip prospect
Andy Marte for creaky Edgar Renteria.

If you're running a farm system and you load up on hitters because they're a
surer thing than pitchers, good luck finding quality arms for your big league
club. It's unfortunate, but to find pitching you're probably going to have
your heart broken by some failed pitching prospects. As with most things
related to baseball, a balance is necessary. If I consider a hitting prospect
and a pitching prospect to be roughly equal, I'll usually side with the
hitter. But sandbagging on the pitchers to try to look better is foolish.

Ask BA will be taking next week off, but will return on March 16. Before I go
I'll answer three questions and give you my pick to win the World Baseball
Classic: Venezuela.




         On the Top 100 Prospects list, Baseball America listed two Mariners
         catchers, Jeff Clement at No. 33 and Kenji Johjima at No. 66.
         Clement was given an ETA of 2007. With Johjima having signed a
         three-year contract, what's the expectation for Clement? Do you
         suspect a platoon situation, or will Clement be traded? I would
         think that Johjima will be the starter for at least the length
         of his contract, assuming he doesn't turn into Kaz Matsui. That
         would leave Clement in the minors until 2009.

         Brendan Ramsden
         Amesbury, Mass.



The Mariners aren't going to worry about having two quality catchers until
Clement is ready for the majors.

Johjima is an established Japanese major leaguer who should be a solid to
good player in the United States. I don't see him as a definite all-star, but
he should hit .275 with 15 homers and play solid defense. Clement, the No. 3
overall pick in the 2005 draft, has tremendous power and showed significant
improvement as both a hitter and a defender as a junior at Southern
California. He'll provide more offense than Johjima, who will stand out more
behind the plate.

Seattle has made significant investments in both players. Johjima's deal is
worth $16.5 million, while Clement got a $3.4 million bonus, a club record
for a draft pick. Clement probably won't be ready before mid-2007, so the
Mariners will have at least a year and a half before they have to figure out
how to get both players into the lineup.

Assuming that Johjima performs as expected, his salary would be reasonable
enough to make him attractive on the trade market. If the Mariners hold onto
both for the length of Johjima's contract, Clement could get more of his
at-bats at first base or DH while backing up Johjima at catcher. Clement has
more than enough bat to move to another position where more offense will be
demanded.

These situations often have a way of working themselves out. Just a year ago,
the Red Sox seemed to have more shortstops than they knew what to do with.
Since then, Boston has traded Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez and moved
Dustin Pedroia to second base and Luis Soto to right field. Now the Red Sox
have no obvious long-term shortstop.





         Where would Albert Callaspo rank on the Diamondbacks Top 10 list?

         Simon Boisvert
         Montreal


         It seems to me that the Angels should have got more for Alberto
         Callaspo then Jason Bulger. Why did they not go after Matt Chico,
         Tony Pena or Micah Owings? I think Callaspo is flying under the
         radar because he was overshadowed by Howie Kendrick in the Angels
         system. Why did he go so cheap?

         James P. Tate
         Guthrie, Okla.



The Diamondbacks system has gone through a lot of change since we finalized
their Top 10 for the Prospect Handbook. Arizona has traded for outfielder
Chris Young and Callaspo and signed shortstop Justin Upton, the No. 1 overall
pick in the 2005 draft.

I'd line up their revised Top 10 in this order: Upton, shortstop Stephen
Drew, first baseman Conor Jackson, outfielder Carlos Quentin, Young,
outfielder Carlos Gonzales, righthander Dustin Nippert, catcher Miguel
Montero, righthander Garrett Mock and Callaspo. Ranking 10th on that list is
no slap in the face, because when we update our farm-system rankings for our
upcoming Minor League Preview issue, Arizona will be No. 1.

The Angels were in a tough position with Callaspo. Adam Kennedy is going to
get their big league at-bats at second base, and Howie Kendrick is going to
get their Triple-A at-bats. They really didn't have a place to play Callaspo,
and while he's a good prospect, Kendrick is a great prospect.

Callaspo is a career .315 hitter in the minors and he's an exceptional
contact hitter. He has led the minors in most plate appearances per strikeout
in each of the last two years, including a rate of 20.4 in 2005. But he
doesn't stand out in any other area offensively. He doesn't have much more
than doubles power and his career slugging percentage is just .424. He has
walked just 166 times in 544 pro games, so he has to hit for a high average
to have a respectable on-base percentage. He has some speed but is just
73-for-123 (59 percent) as a pro basestealer.

A slick-fielding second baseman who also can handle shortstop, Callaspo
figures to make Arizona's big legue club as a reserve middle infielder. I
could see him becoming a decent regular but I don't see a lot of star
potential. The Angels needed to move him, and I'd take Bulger over Chico and
Pena because he's major league-ready. The Diamondbacks couldn't trade Owings
until the one-year anniversary of his signing last summer, and I doubt they
would have made him available in this deal.





         How is Bryan Morris doing at Motlow State (Tenn.) CC? I know he
         didn't sign with the Devil Rays after they took him in the third
         round last June. Do you see him improving his draft position by
         going to school?

         Drew Henson
         Tullahoma, Tenn.


Morris wanted to sign with the Devil Rays last summer. The two sides agreed
on a $1.3 million bonus, which was more in line with Morris' status as a
borderline first-round talent. But Tampa Bay's upper management kept dragging
its heels on signing off on the deal--reportedly, incoming managing partner
Stuart Sternberg was in favor of it while outgoing managing partner Vince
Naimoli was against it--so Morris decided to attend Motlow State, where his
father Ricky is an assistant coach.

Tampa Bay still controls Morris' rights and can sign him between the time
Motlow State's season ends and a week before the 2006 draft. Now that Naimoli
has left and Sternberg is running the Rays, there's a good chance the two
sides could get that $1.3 million deal completed in May.

Morris isn't doing anything to hurt his standing at Motlow. He's still
showing a plus fastball and a power curveball, as well as an intriguing
slider and a developing changeup. He has made three starts, going 2-1, 0.53
with 26 strikeouts and just eight hits allowed in 17 innings. He also has
played some center field and DHed for the Bucks, hitting .258 with six RBIs
in 10 games.

If Morris doesn't sign with Tampa Bay, and he keeps displaying the same stuff
and achieving the same results, he could go in the first round in June. He
might have last summer if he wasn't considered somewhat of a tough sign after
his dad told scouts he wanted Bryan to pitch for him for at least one season.